Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a n...Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.展开更多
This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estim...This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed and in the method,the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring or observation process.Also I-spline functions are used to approximate the unknown functions in the model,and a simulation study is carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach and suggests that it works well in practical situations.In addition,an illustrative example is provided.展开更多
Often in longitudinal studies, some subjects complete their follow-up visits, but others miss their visits due to various reasons. For those who miss follow-up visits, some of them might learn that the event of intere...Often in longitudinal studies, some subjects complete their follow-up visits, but others miss their visits due to various reasons. For those who miss follow-up visits, some of them might learn that the event of interest has already happened when they come back. In this case, not only are their event times interval-censored, but also their time-dependent measurements are incomplete. This problem was motivated by a national longitudinal survey of youth data. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method based on expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used for parameter estimation. Then missing information principle is applied to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of the MLEs. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method works well in terms of bias, standard error, and power for samples of moderate size. The national longitudinal survey of youth 1997 (NLSY97) data is analyzed for illustration.展开更多
Longitudinal data often arise when subjects are followed over a period of time, and in many situations, there may exist informative observation times and a dependent terminal event such as death that stops the follow-...Longitudinal data often arise when subjects are followed over a period of time, and in many situations, there may exist informative observation times and a dependent terminal event such as death that stops the follow-up. In this article, we propose joint modeling and analysis of longitudinal data with possibly informative observation times and a dependent terminal event in which a common subject-specific latent variable is used to characterize the correlations. A borrow-strength estimation procedure is developed for parameter estimation, and both large-sample and finite^sample properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, some goodness-of-fit methods for assessing the adequacy of the model are provided. An application to a bladder cancer study is illustrated.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922089)。
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11671168the Science and Technology Developing Plan of Jilin Province under Grant No.20200201258JC。
文摘This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed and in the method,the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring or observation process.Also I-spline functions are used to approximate the unknown functions in the model,and a simulation study is carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach and suggests that it works well in practical situations.In addition,an illustrative example is provided.
文摘Often in longitudinal studies, some subjects complete their follow-up visits, but others miss their visits due to various reasons. For those who miss follow-up visits, some of them might learn that the event of interest has already happened when they come back. In this case, not only are their event times interval-censored, but also their time-dependent measurements are incomplete. This problem was motivated by a national longitudinal survey of youth data. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method based on expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is used for parameter estimation. Then missing information principle is applied to estimate the variance-covariance matrix of the MLEs. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method works well in terms of bias, standard error, and power for samples of moderate size. The national longitudinal survey of youth 1997 (NLSY97) data is analyzed for illustration.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grants(No.11231010 and 11171330)Key Laboratory of RCSDS,CAS(No.2008DP173182)
文摘Longitudinal data often arise when subjects are followed over a period of time, and in many situations, there may exist informative observation times and a dependent terminal event such as death that stops the follow-up. In this article, we propose joint modeling and analysis of longitudinal data with possibly informative observation times and a dependent terminal event in which a common subject-specific latent variable is used to characterize the correlations. A borrow-strength estimation procedure is developed for parameter estimation, and both large-sample and finite^sample properties of the proposed estimators are established. In addition, some goodness-of-fit methods for assessing the adequacy of the model are provided. An application to a bladder cancer study is illustrated.
