Development modes analysis of renewable energy power generation in North Africa

North African countries generally have strategic demands for energy transformation and sustainable development.Renewable energy development is important to achieve this goal.Considering three typical types of renewable energies—wind,photovoltaic(PV),and concentrating solar power(CSP)—an optimal planning model is established to minimize construction costs and power curtailment losses.The levelized cost of electricity is used as an index for assessing economic feasibility.In this study,wind and PV,wind/PV/CSP,and transnational interconnection modes are designed for Morocco,Egypt,and Tunisia.The installed capacities of renewable energy power generation are planned through the time sequence production simulation method for each country.The results show that renewable energy combined with power generation,including the CSP mode,can improve reliability of the power supply and reduce the power curtailment rate.The transnational interconnection mode can help realize mutual benefits of renewable energy power,while the apportionment of electricity prices and trading mechanisms are very important and are related to economic feasibility;thus,this mode is important for the future development of renewable energy in North Africa.

Paleozoic Composite Petroleum System of North Africa:Hydrocarbon Distribution and Main Controlling Factors

North Africa, which is one of the main oil and gas producing regions in the world, is best known for its subsalt Paleozoic-Triassic reservoirs and Paleozoic source rocks. Hydrocarbon abundance varies greatly from one structural domain to another areally and from one stratigraphic interval to another vertically. Analyses of the essential elements and geological processes of the Paleozoic petroleum system indicate that the distribution of the Lower Silurian shale source rocks, the development of a thick Mesozoic overburden, the presence of the Upper Triassic-Lower Jurassic evaporite seal are the most important factors goveming the distribution of the Paleozoic-sourced hydrocarbons in North Africa. The Mesozoic sequence plays a critical role for hydrocarbons to accumulate by enabling the maturation of the Paleozoic source rocks during the Mesozoic-Paleogene times and preserving the accumulated hydrocarbons. Basins and surrounding uplifts, particularly the latter, with a thick Mesozoic sequence and a regional evaporite seal generally have abundant hydrocarbons. Basins where only a thin Mesozoic overburden was developed tend to have a very poor to moderate hydrocarbon prospectivity.

Economic analysis of solar energy development in North Africa

The economic analysis of solar energy development is the basis of promoting the solar energy planning in north Africa and realizing the clean energy power transmission among continents. In this paper, the cost development trend of photovoltaic(PV) power and concentrating solar power(CSP) generation is analyzed, and the levelized cost of energy(LCOE) of solar power generation is forecasted. Then, taking the development of Tunisian solar energy as an example in the context of transcontinental transmission, PV power with energy storage and PV-CSP power generation are given as two kinds of development plan respectively. The installed capacity configurations of the two schemes are given with production simulation method, and comprehensive LCOE are calculated. The studies show that based on the LCOE forecast value, the LCOE of PV-CSP combined power generation will decrease when the annual utilization hours of transmission channel is increased. It can be chosen as one of important mode of the North Africa solar energy development.

Epidemiology of type 2 diabetes in the Middle East and North Africa:Challenges and call for action

Type 2 diabetes continues to be a serious and highly prevalent public health problem worldwide.In 2019,the highest prevalence of diabetes in the world at 12.2%,with its associated morbidity and mortality,was found in the Middle East and North Africa region.In addition to a genetic predisposition in its population,evidence suggests that obesity,physical inactivity,urbanization,and poor nutritional habits have contributed to the high prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in the region.These risk factors have also led to an earlier onset of type 2 diabetes among children and adolescents,negatively affecting the productive years of the youth and their quality of life.Furthermore,efforts to control the rising prevalence of diabetes and its complications have been challenged and complicated by the political instability and armed conflict in some countries of the region and the recent coronavirus disease 2019.Broad strategies,coupled with targeted interventions at the regional,national,and community levels are needed to address and curb the spread of this public health crisis.

Morocco,North Africa:a Dyke Swarm Bonanza

Morocco hosts a Dyke Swarm Bonanza!Remarkable mafic dyke and sill swarms(plumbing system of Large Igneous Provinces,LIPs)have been recognized in the Sahara and in most inliers in the Anti-Atlas of southern

Hepatitis C virus among blood donors and general population in Middle East and North Africa:Meta-analyses and meta-regressions

BACKGROUND Despite the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)Region reported to have the highest prevalence of hepatitis C virus(HCV)globally,HCV infection levels in the majority of MENA countries remain inadequately characterized.Blood donor data have been previously used as a proxy to assess levels and trends of HCV in the general population,however,it is unclear how comparable these populations are in MENA and whether blood donors provide an appropriate proxy.AIM To delineate HCV epidemiology among blood donors and the general population in the MENA.METHODS The data source was the systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database.Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted.For comparison,analyses were conducted for Europe,utilizing the Hepatitis C Prevalence Database of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.RESULTS One thousand two hundred and thirteen HCV antibody prevalence measures and 84 viremic rate measures were analyzed for MENA.Three hundred and seventyseven antibody prevalence measures were analyzed for Europe.In MENA,pooled mean prevalence was 1.58%[95%confidence interval(CI):1.48%–1.69%]among blood donors and 4.49%(95%CI:4.10%–4.90%)in the general population.In Europe,pooled prevalence was 0.11%(95%CI:0.10%–0.13%)among blood donors and 1.59%(95%CI:1.25%–1.97%)in the general population.Prevalence in the general population was 1.72-fold(95%CI:1.50–1.97)higher than that in blood donors in MENA,but it was 15.10-fold(95%CI:11.48–19.86)higher in Europe.Prevalence was declining at a rate of 4%per year in both MENA and Europe[adjusted risk ratio:0.96(95%CI:0.95–0.97)in MENA and 0.96(95%CI:0.92–0.99)in Europe].Pooled mean viremic rate in MENA was 76.29%(95%CI:67.64%–84.02%)among blood donors and 65.73%(95%CI:61.03%–70.29%)in the general population.CONCLUSION Blood donor data provide a useful proxy for HCV infection in the wider population in MENA,but not Europe,and could improve HCV burden estimations and assess progress toward HCV elimination by 2030.

Epidemiological characterization and geographic distribution of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome infection in North African countries

BACKGROUND Human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)infection is a major global public health concern.North African countries carry a disproportionate burden of HIV representing one of the highest rates in Africa.AIM To characterize the epidemiological and spatial trends of HIV infection in this region.METHODS A systematic review was carried out on all the published data regarding HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in North African countries over ten years(2008-2017)following the PRISMA guidelines.We performed a comprehensive literature search using Medline PubMed,Embase,regional and international databases,and country-level reports with no language restriction.The quality,quantity,and geographic coverage of the data were assessed at both the national and regional levels.We used random-effects methods,spatial variables,and stratified results by demographic factors.Only original data on the prevalence of HIV infection were included and independently evaluated by professional epidemiologists.RESULTS A total of 721 records were identified but only 41 that met the criteria were included in the meta-analysis.There was considerable variability in the prevalence estimates of HIV within the countries of the region.The overall prevalence of HIV ranged from 0.9%[95%confidence interval(CI)0.8-1.27]to 3.8%(95%CI 1.17-6.53).The highest prevalence was associated with vulnerable groups and particularly drug abusers and sexually promiscuous individuals.The dense HIV clustering noted varied from one country to another.At least 13 HIV subtypes and recombinant forms were prevalent in the region.Subtype B was the most common variant,followed by CRF02_AG.CONCLUSION This comprehensive review indicates that HIV infection in North African countries is an increasing threat.Effective national and regional strategies are needed to improve monitoring and control of HIV transmission,with particular emphasis on geographic variability and HIV clustering.

NORTH AFRICA IN FOCUS

Africa has been firmly implanted in global headlines this year-often for all the wrong reasons.The world watches as political unrest,conflict and foreign intervention reap relentless media exposure.Both from a

Systematic overview of hepatitis C infection in the Middle East and North Africa

AIM To assess the quality of and to critically synthesize the available data on hepatitis C infections in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA) region to map evidence gaps.METHODS We conducted an overview of systematic reviews(SRs) following an a priori developed protocol(CRD42017076736). Our overview followed the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and metaanalyses guidelines for reporting SRs and abstracts and did not receive any funding. Two independent reviewers systematically searched MEDLINE and conducted a multistage screening of the identified articles. Out of 5758 identified articles, 37 SRs of hepatitis C virus(HCV) infection in populations living in 20 countries in the MENA region published between 2008 and 2016 were included in our overview. The nine primary outcomes of interest were HCV antibody(anti-) prevalences and incidences in different at-risk populations; the HCV viremic(RNA positive) rate in HCV-positive individuals; HCV viremic prevalence in the general population(GP); the prevalence of HCV co-infection with the hepatitis B virus, human immunodeficiency virus, or schistosomiasis; the HCV genotype/subtype distribution; and the risk factors for HCV transmission. The conflicts of interest declared by the authors of the SRs were also extracted. Good quality outcomes reported by the SRs were defined as having the population, outcome, study time and setting defined as recommended by the PICOTS framework and a sample size > 100.RESULTS We included SRs reporting HCV outcomes with different levels of quality and precision. A substantial proportion of them synthesized data from mixed populations at differing levels of risk for acquiring HCV or at different HCV infection stages(recent and prior HCV transmissions). They also synthesized the data over long periods of time(e.g., two decades). Anti-HCV prevalence in the GP varied widely in the MENA region from 0.1%(study dates not reported) in the United Arab Emirates to 2.1%-13.5%(2003-2006) in Pakistan and 14.7%(2008) in Egypt. Data were not identified for Bahrain, Jordan, or Palestine. Good quality estimates of anti-HCV prevalence in the GP were reported for Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Pakistan, Syria, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen. Anti-HCV incidence estimates in the GP were reported only for Egypt(0.8-6.8 per 1000 person-year, 1997-2003). In Egypt, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates, viremic rates in anti-HCV-positive individuals from the GP were approximately 70%. In the GP, the viremic prevalence varied from 0.7%(2011) in Saudi Arabia to 5.8%(2007-2008) in Pakistan and 10.0%(2008) in Egypt. Anti-HCV prevalence was lower in blood donors than in the GP, ranging from 0.2%(1992-1993) in Algeria to 1.7%(2005) in Yemen. The reporting quality of the outcomes in blood donors was good in the MENA countries, except in Qatar where no time framework was reported for the outcome. Some countries had anti-HCV prevalence estimates for children, transfused patients, contacts of HCV-infected patients, prisoners, sex workers, and men who have sex with men.CONCLUSION A substantial proportion of the reported outcomes may not help policymakers to develop micro-elimination strategies with precise HCV infection prevention and treatment programs in the region, as nowcasting HCV epidemiology using these data is potentially difficult. In addition to providing accurate information on HCV epidemiology, outcomes should also demonstrate practical and clinical significance and relevance. Based on the available data, most countries in the region have low to moderate anti-HCV prevalence. To achieve HCV elimination by 2030, up-to-date, good quality data on HCV epidemiology are required for the GP and key populations such as people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men.

Occurrence of Fungi and Mycotoxins in Some Commercial Baby Foods in North Africa

Aflatoxins, are one of over 200 known mycotoxins produced by filamentous fungi. They are toxic, carcinogenic, and mutagenic and may be present in many raw and processed food commodities including cereals and milk used as ingredients in infant food products. Consumption of these commodities may pose a potential risk to the health of infants. The mycoflora of 84 samples of baby food commercially available in North Africa was determined. The feeds were screened for mycotoxins using thin layer chromatography (TLC) and further analyses were carried for the total aflatoxins by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) using a Kobra cell to derivatise the aflatoxins (B1, G1, B2 and G2). Twenty-four fungal isolates were recovered from the samples consisting of 5 Aspergillus. spp, 13 Penicillum. spp, 5 Mucor. spp and an unidentified species Of these, 45.8% of the isolates were found to be mycotoxigenic however only 2.4% of the samples contained aflatoxins (19 to 70 μg·kg–1) and the remaining contained undetectable levels of the toxin. Storage at elevated relative humidity for 7 days showed a slight increase in the fungal counts but the toxin levels were unaffected. The results show the importance of periodic testing regime of ingredients used infant food formula for the presence of fungal contamination.

Potential for human immunodeficiency virus parenteral transmission in the Middle East and North Africa: An analysis using hepatitis C virus as a proxy biomarker

The Middle East and North Africa(MENA) region has endured several major events of infection parenteral transmission. Recent work has established the utility of using hepatitis C virus(HCV) as a proxy biomarker for assessing the epidemic potential for human immunodeficiency virus(HIV) parenteral transmission. In this review, we use data on the prevalence of HCV infection antibody(seroprevalence) among general population and high risk population groups to assess the potential for HIV parenteral transmission in MENA. Relatively low prevalence of HCV infection in the general population groups was reported in most MENA countries indicating that parenteral HIV transmission at endemic levels does not appear to be a cause for concern. Nonetheless, there could be opportunities for localized HIV outbreaks and transmission of other blood-borne infections in some settings such as healthcare facilities. Though there have been steady improvements in safety measures related to parenteral modes of transmission in the region, these improvements have not been uniform across all countries. More precautions, including infection control training programs, surveillance systems for nosocomial infections and wider coverage and evaluation of hepatitis B virus immunization programs need to be implemented to avoid the unnecessary spread of HIV, HCV, and other blood-borne pathogens along the parenteral modes of transmission.

First multicenter study for risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma development in North Africa

AIM:To assess the role of the major risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) development in the western part of North Africa.METHODS:A multicenter case control study was conducted in Tunisia,Morocco and Algeria in collaboration with Pasteur Institutes in these countries.A total of 164 patients with HCC and 250 control subjects without hepatic diseases were included.Prevalences of HBsAg,anti-hepatitis C virus(HCV)and diabetes were assessed.HCV and HBV genotyping were performed for anti-HCV and HBsAg positive patients.RESULTS:The mean age of patients was 62±10 years old for a 1.5 M:F sex ratio.Sixty percent of HCC patients were positive for anti-HCV and 17.9% for HBsAg.Diabetes was detected in 18% of cases.Odd ratio(OR)and 95% confidence intervals(CI) were 32.0(15.8-65.0),7.2(3.2-16.1) and 8.0(3.1 -20.0)for anti-HCV,HBsAg and diabetes respectively.Multivariate analysis indicated that the three studied factors were independent.1b HCV genotype and D HBV genotype were predominant in HCC patients.HCV was the only risk factor significantly associated with an excess of cirrhosis(90% vs 68% for all other risk factors collectively,P=0.00168).Excessive alcohol consumption was reliably established for 19(17.6%) cases among the 108 HCC patients for whom data is available.CONCLUSION:HCV and HBV infections and diabetes are the main determinants of HCC development in North Africa.An active surveillance and secondary prevention programs for patients with chronic hepatitis and nutrition-associated metabolic liver diseases are the most important steps to reduce the risk of HCC in the region.Salah Berkane,Department of Gastroenterology BologhineUniversity Hospital,Bologhine 16090,Algiers。

Anti-Poverty Cooperation between China and West Asian and North African Countries in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

As important parts of the Belt and Road Initiative,West Asia and North Africa have rich resources and prominent strategic position.Anti-poverty has always been a crucial social issue of China,West Asia and North Africa. Through literature review and data analysis,this paper analyzed the current situations of anti-poverty in West Asia and North Africa and the causes of poverty,and objectively summarized the realistic foundation of anti-poverty cooperation between China and West Asian and North African countries. On the basis of current situations,it put forward a path for anti-poverty cooperation between China and West Asian and North African countries,in the hope of providing decisionmaking basis and policy recommendations for China to undertake anti-poverty cooperation in the worldwide range.

Distribution and variability of deformed wing virus of honeybees （Apis mellifera） in the Middle East and North Africa

Three hundred and eleven honeybee samples from 12 countries in the Middle East and North Africa （MENA） （Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Yemen, Palestine, and Sudan） were analyzed for the presence of deformed wing virus （DWV）. The prevalence of DWV throughout the MENA region was pervasive, but variable. The highest prevalence was found in Lebanon and Syria, with prevalence dropping in Palestine, Jordan, and Egypt before increasing slightly moving westwards to Algeria and Morocco Phylogenetic analysis of a 194 nucleotide section of the DWV Lp gene did not identify any significant phylogenetic resolution among the samples, although the sequences did show consistent regional clustering, including an interesting geographic gradient from Morocco through North Africa to Jordan and Syria. The sequences revealed several clear variability hotspots in the deduced amino acid sequence, which furthermore showed some patterns of regional identity. Furthermore, the sequence variants from the Middle East and North Africa appear more numerous and diverse than those from Europe.

Economic Analysis on the Motives of China’s FDI in Africa:A Case Study on North Africa

Taking the Arab countries of North Africa as specific case studies,the author first describes the general situation of China’s Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)in that region,and then makes a detailed analysis over the motives of such investment by an employment of methodology derived from fundamental principles of international economics.Finally,the author comes up with a proposal on the strategic options on the types of FDI that should be adopted by Chinese enterprises and the target sectors&industries that deserve more attention from Chinese investors.The author argues that China’s FDI into Africa has been promoted mainly by a series of domestic factors,including adjustment of China’s domestic industrial structure,a trend of pluralizing sources of procurement in its national strategies on energy and resources,and intent to avoid external trade frictions and barriers by domestic entrepreneurs and merchants.The Arab countries in North Africa now become the major targets of China’s FDI in Africa,which can be mainly attributed to their relatively steady economic growth,good business environment,and strong national competitiveness.From the author’s point of view,China’s FDI in North Africa should focus on three types:resource-oriented investment,export-oriented investment,and industry-oriented investment.China’s FDI in this region should be mainly streamed into such sectors and industries as energy,agriculture,machinery,and telecommunication.

The Upheaval in West Asia and North Africa:A Constructed New Viewpoint of World Security

The Arab political transformations originally occurring in early 2011 are posing negative impact over China’s overseas interests in the Middle East region,including those related to its trade with the Arab world,the China-Middle East bilateral investments,its contracted projects,and the safety of its nationals living in the Middle East,whether these influences are direct or indirect,overt or covert.Three aspects are strongly impacted by these negative influences:1)Libya;2)Northern and southern Sudan;3)Energy supply.The dramatic changes of the Arab world have brought alerting signals to China over its national interests in the Middle East,so China shall undertake a meticulous review of its overseas activities and draw the correct lessons from its experiences there so that practical responses can be worked out.In consideration of the loss that Chinese corporations have suffered from the Arab political changeovers,China should establish its own grand strategy for its foreign relations so as to protect its growing overseas interests.

Measuring Crustal Lg-Waves Attenuation in the Northern Part of Africa

Lg-waves propagate over long distances in the northern part of Africa and are recorded on the seismic station located close to Abeche (Chad). We have applied the well-known coda analysis method developed by Aki and Chouet [1] to study the Lg-wave anelastic attenuation in this area. We found a frequency dependence: Q( f ) = (650±34) f (0.77±0.2). This result shows an average value of Q0 (Q0 ≈ 650) for earthquakes occurred in tectonic areas as the East African Rift system, Turkey, Greece and Red Sea. The higher value of Q0 (Q0 ≈ 800) is obtained for the event occurred in the middle of the stable plate close to the Tamanrasset (TAM) station in Algeria.

Comparison of trends and frequencies of drought in central North China and sub- Saharan Africa from 1901 to 2010

This study compares the trends and frequencies of drought between central North China(CNC) and(SSA) for the periods 1901–2010 and 1951–2010. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) and Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(sc-PDSI) are used to assess the drought trends and frequencies. In general, the results exhibit downward trends of drought index values and upward trends of drought frequencies over CNC and SSA. A high rate of the trends' slopes for the drought index and a low rate of the frequencies' slopes is found over CNC with respect to SPEI and sc-PDSI. Furthermore, some abrupt changes are revealed after applying the sequential Mann–Kendall test to detect change points. These findings offer insight into the trends and frequencies of drought over the regions studied. Further analysis needs to be undertaken to understand the mechanisms underlying the occurrence of drought in these areas.