A Study of Transport and Impact Strength of Fukushima Nuclear Pollutants in the North Pacific Surface

Based on the statistics of surface drifter data of 1979-2011 and the simulation of nuclear pollutant particulate move- merits simulated using high quality ocean reanalysis surface current dataset, the transport pathways and impact strength of Fuku-shima nuclear pollutants in the North Pacific have been estimated. The particulates are used to increase the sampling size and en- hance the representativeness of statistical results. The trajectories of the drifters and particulates are first examined to identify typical drifting pathways. The results show that there are three types of transport paths for nuclear pollutants at the surface： 1） most pollutant particles move eastward and are carried by the Kuroshio and Kuroshio-extension currents and reach the east side of the North Pacific after about 3.2-3.9 years; 2） some particles travel with the subtropical circulation branch and reach the east coast of China after about 1.6 years according to one drifter trajectory and about 3.6 years according to particulate trajectories; 3） a little of them travel with local, small scale circulations and reach the east coast of China after about 1.3-1.8 years. Based on the par-tieulates, the impact strength of nuclear pollutants at these time scales can be estimated according to the temporal variations of relative concentration combined with the radioactive decay rate. For example, Cesium-137, carried by the strong North Pacific current, mainly accumulates in the eastern North Pacific and its impact strength is 4% of the initial level at the originating Fuku- shima area after 4 years. Due to local eddies, Cesium-137 in the western North Pacific is 1% of the initial pollutant level after 1.5 years and continuously increases to 3% after 4 years. The vertical movement of radioactive pollutants is not taken into account in the present study, and the estimation accuracy would be improved by considering three-dimensional flows.

An ensemble estimation of impact times and strength of Fukushima nuclear pollution to the east coast of China and the west coast of America

Based on the statistics of all surface drifting buoys of 1978-2011 and Lagrangian tracers simulated from high quality ocean reanalysis currents,the impact times and strength of Fukushima nuclear pollution to the east coast of China and the west coast of America have been estimated.Under the circumstances of the radioactive pollutants drifting in the ocean surface,preliminary research results show that while the tracers took about 4 years to reach the west coast of USA,there are two types of tracers to carry out Fukushima nuclear pollutants to reach the east coast of China,corresponding to 1.5-year recirculation gyre transport and 3.5-year subtropical circulation transport.The distributions of the impact strength at these time scales are given according to the variation of relative number concentration with time combined with the decaying rate of radioactive matter.For example,starting from 1% at 1.5-year,of the initial level at the originating area of Fukushima nuclear pollution,the impact strength of Cesium-137 in the South China Sea continuously increases up to 3% by 4 years,while the impact strength of Cesium-137 in the west coast of America is as high as 4% due to the role of strong Kuroshio-extension currents as a major transport mechanism of nuclear pollutants for that area.