The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments PartII: The Operational Forecasting Experiments

おhe water-bearing numerical model is undergone all round examinations during the operational forecasting experiments from 1994 to 1996. A lot of difficult problems arising from the model′s water-bearing are successfully resolved in these experiments through developing and using a series of technical measures. The operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model is realized stably and reliably, and satisfactory forecasts are obtained.

A hybrid model for numerical wave forecasting and its implementation-Ⅰ.The wind wave model

The authors make an endeavor to explain why a new hybrid wave model is here proposed when several such models have already been in operation and the so- called third generation wave modej is proving attractive. This part of the paper is devoted to the wind wave model. Both deep and shallow water models have been developed, the former being actually a special case of the latter when water depth is great. The deep water model is exceptionally simple in form. Significant wave height is the only prognostic variable. In comparison with the usual methods to compute the energy input and dissipations empirically or by 'tuning', the proposed model has the merit that the effects of all source terms are combined into one term which is computed through empirical growth relations for significant waves, these relations being, relatively speaking, easier and more reliable to obtain than those for the source terms in the spectral energy balance equation. The discrete part of the model and the implementation of the model as a whole will be discussed in the second part of the present paper.

Implementation and application of a nested numerical storm surge forecast model in the East China Sea

A nested numerical storm surge forecast model for the East China Sea is developed. Aone-way relaxing nest method is used to exchange the information between coarse grid and fine grid. In the inner boundary of the fine grid model a transition area is set up to relax the forecast variables. This ensures that the forecast variables of the coarse model may transit to those of fine grid gradually, which enhances the model stability. By using this model, a number of hindcasts and forecast are performed for six severe storm surges caused by tropical cyclones in the East China Sea. The results show good agreement with the observations.

The Water-Bearing Numerical Model and Its Operational Forecasting Experiments Part I: The Water-Bearing Numerical Model

In first paper of articles, the physical and calculating schemes of the water-bearing numerical model are described. The model is developed by bearing all species of hydrometeors in a conventional numerical model in which the dynamic framework of hydrostatic equilibrium is taken. The main contributions are: the mixing ratios of all species of hydrometeors are added as the prognostic variables of model, the prognostic equations of these hydrometeors are introduced, the cloud physical framework is specially designed, some technical measures are used to resolve a series of physical, mathematical and computational problems arising from water-bearing; and so on. The various problems (in such aspects as the designs of physical and calculating schemes and the composition of computational programme) which are exposed in feasibility test, in sensibility test, and especially in operational forecasting experiments are successfully resolved using a lot of technical measures having been developed from researches and tests. Finally, the operational forecasting running of the water-bearing numerical model and its forecasting system is realized stably and reliably, and the fine forecasts are obtained. All of these mentioned above will be described in second paper.

Sensitivities of Numerical Model Forecasts of Extreme Cyclone Events

A global forecast model is used to examine various sensitivities of numerical predictions of three extreme winter storms that occurred near the eastern continental margin of North America: the Ohio Valley blizzard of January 1978, the New England blizzard of February 1978, and the Mid-Atlantic cyclone of February 1979. While medium-resolution simulations capture much of the intensification, the forecasts of the precise timing and intensity levels suffer from various degrees of error. The coastal cyclones show a 5-10 hPa dependence on the western North Atlantic sea surface temperature, which is varied within a range (± 2.5℃) compatible with interannual fluctuations. The associated vertical velocities and precipitation rates show proportionately stronger dependences on the ocean temperature perturbations. The Ohio Valley blizzard, which intensified along a track 700-800 km from the coast, shows little sensitivity to ocean temperature. The effect of a shift of - 10?latitude in the position of the snow boundary is negligible in each case. The forecasts depend strongly on the model resolution, and the coarse-resolution forecasts are consistently inferior to the medium-resolution forecasts. Studies of the corresponding sensitivities of extreme cyclonic events over eastern Asia are encouraged in order to identify characteristics that are common to numerical forecasts for the two regions.

Probability Forecast of Regional Landslide Based on Numerical Weather Forecast

The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Foreeast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.

A hybrid model for numerical wave forecasting and its implementation-Ⅱ .The discrete part and implementation of the model

In the first part of the present paper we have explained why we manage to formulate another wave prediction model when so many of them, including the so-called third generation model, have already been in use. The wind-wave part of the proposed model has also been given. Now we proceed to discuss the swell part,the implementation of the model as a prediction method,mumerical experiments done with ideal wind fields and hindcasts made in the Bohai Sea,in the neighboring seas adjacent to China and in the Northwest Pacific.

A numerical forecasting model of offshore-SST anomaly

An SST model which is good at predicting offshore-SST anomaly (O-SSTA) has been developed. It is composed of three parts: equations of dynamics, equations of model's physics and equations of affecting factors of O-SSTA. Initial field of SST is prepared for a case of O-SSTA on last decade of July 1994, in which there are a center of warm anomaly in the Huanghai Sea and a center of cold anomaly in the East China Sea to be developing simultaneously. Using the Observed atmospheric forcing, the (decade) experiment forecast is made. Forecasting accuracy of warm (cold) anomaly is 32/44 (29/33 )' the ensemble accuracy reaches R = 91% and AMD = 0. 67 t. The chief affecting factors of O-SSTA for this case are shown, for warm anomaly: (1 ) afar radiation (weight is 64 % ), (2) the convergence of warm water (9% ), (3 ) shallow-water effects; and for cold anomaly: (l) pumping of typhoon (44 % ), (2) entrainment of storm (24 % ), (3) latent heat (19 % ), respectively. It is identified that the formation of warm (cold) anomaly is a slower (faster) process.

ANALYSES OF ERRORS IN MEDIUM-TERM NUMERICAL FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 1998

By statistic and dynamic analyses, we have come to the following conclusions: (1) The ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast can forecast medium-term activity of subtropical high, and the accuracy rate of forecast cannot have large improvement by translational corrections. (2) The important cause for the ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast to have errors in 1998 is that the astronomical tide is not included in the model. (3) Two indexes are found from which it can be judged that ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast will have errors if the astronomical tide is ignored in the model : ① When the 54.7?line under the moon of the nodical month astronomical singularities coincides with the trough-line of the subtropical jet flow from 50癊 to 150癊 on the 500 hPa level at 2000 L.T. of the same day, and is approximately vertical (α>60? with the isotherm, then the day 0 2 days after the appearance of the nodical month astronomical singularities is defined as the initial day. Then in three successive days after the initial day, ECMWF medium-term numerical forecast of the northern latitude of the 588 line at 120 癊 will have continuous errors as large as two latitudes (7/9). Otherwise, it won’t have continuous errors (13/13). ② Otherwise, if the 54.7 ?line is in the range of a low pressure between two high pressures, then there is a dispersive error on the day of the nodical month astronomical singularities (5/7). There is not any error (6/6) otherwise.

Evaluation of numerical earthquake forecasting models

Evaluation of numerical earthquake forecasting models needs to consider two issues of equal importance:the application scenario of the simulation,and the complexity of the model.Criterion of the evaluation-based model selection faces some interesting problems in need of discussion.

Analysis of a Cold Wave Process in Jiujiang and Its Numerical Model Forecast

The cold wave weather process in Jiujiang in the early spring of February 2020 was analyzed.The results show that the establishment of blocking high near Lake Baikal and the rapid southward of cold air after accumulation resulted in the cold wave weather accompanied by strong cooling,hale and rain(snow)weather in Jiujiang.Before the cold wave broke out,the ground warmed up significantly,which was also one of thermal conditions for this cold wave weather.Water vapor conditions were abundant at middle and low levels;at 850 hPa,temperature dropped by 12-14℃during February 14-15,and-4℃isotherm appeared in the southern part of central Jiangxi,which is a favorable condition for rain(snow)in most areas of Jiujiang.

A Numerical Study on Forecasting the Henan Extraordinarily Heavy Rainfall Event in August 1975

This study is essentially an experiment on the control experiment in the August 1975 catastrophe which was the heaviest rainfall in China's Mainland with a maximum 24-h rainfall of 1060.3 mm, and it significantly demonstrates that the limited area model can still skillfully give reasonable results even only the conventional data are available. For such a heavy rainfall event, a grid length of 90 km is too large while 45 km seems acceptable. Under these two grid sizes, the cumulus parameterization scheme is evidently superior to the explicit scheme since it restricts instabilities such as CISK to limited extent. The high resolution scheme for the boundary treatment does not improve forecasts significantly.The experiments also revealed some interesting phenomena such as the forecast rainfall being too small while affecting synoptic system so deep as compared with observations. Another example is the severe deformation of synoptic systems both in initial conditions and forecast fields in the presence of complicated topography. Besides, the fixed boundary condition utilized in the experiments along with current domain coverage set some limitations to the model performances.

Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea——Ⅰ Basic problems of ocean current forecasting and structure of the models

Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.

CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves-Ⅰ. Spectrum of waves in growing phase

Owing to the fact that the wind speed and direction of typhoon vary rapidly with time and space in typhoon fetch; the nearer to the typhoon eye the greater the wind velocity, and the shorter the wind fetch the smaller the wind time,as a result,the more difficult for the wind wave to fully grow. Hence.in typhoon wave numerical calculation it is impossible to use the model for a fully grown wave spectrum. Lately, the author et at. presented a CHGS method for numerical forecasting of typhoon waves, where a model for the growing wave spectrum was set up (see Eq. (2) in the text). The model involves a parameter indicating the growing degree of wind wave, i. e. ,the mean wave age β. When βvalue is small, the wave energy is chiefly concentrated near the peak frequency, so that the spectral peak gets high and steep; with the increase of β the spectral shape gradually gets lower and gentler; when β=Ⅰ, the wave fully grows, the growing spectrum becomes a fully grown P-M spectrum. The model also shows a spectral “overshooting” phenomenon within the “balance zone”.

How much Numerical Products Affect Weather Forecasting

The paper shows how much improvement can be achieved in weather forecasting by using NWP products. And for weather element forecasts, the types and number of NWP products highly impact on the quality of MOS forecasts and other utilities.

Forecast and Analysis of the Rainstorm in Liaoyang on July 15^(th),2008

By using observation data,numerical forecast product and non-conventional observation data,the process of a rainstorm happened on July 15th,2008 was analyzed. The evolution process of situation field and the prediction error by numerical forecast products were mainly analyzed. Some local indices for forecasting rainstorm were obtained,so as to guide rainstorm prediction in the future.

Study on Fog Climate Characteristic and Forecasting Method in East of Hexi Corridor

Using fog meteorological data of five stations of Wuwei in east of Hexi Corridor from 1961 to 2008,geography distribution and climate characteristic of fog were analyzed with statistical method.The results showed that fog had the obvious region characteristic,fog days were more in mountainous area than Sichuan area and were more in south than north.Fog assumed reducing tendency year by year.Fog occurring frequency was the highest from July to October in one year.Fog occurring centralized time was form 20:00 to next day 08:00 in one day.Selecting of ECMWF numerical forecast grid field,factor was initially elected with Press criterion,factor was selected with stepwise regression forecast method.The fog forecasting equation was built with optimal subset regression.The overall situation and the most superior significance equations of fog forecasting were ascertained finally for spring,summer and autumn.Fitting rate three seasonal forecasting equation were 85.5%,82.1% and 81.2% respectively,which would provide objective and effective instruction products for forecasting service.

THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I:USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979 1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial field, and more improvement can be obtained by taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting members randomly. The skill of 60 % 70 % of all cases is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the ambient steering current is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast.

EXPERIMENTS OF ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF TYPHOON TRACK USING BDA PERTURBING METHOD

A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method is based on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets; a series of bogus vortex. Then each bogus vortex is used in data assimilation to obtain initial conditions. Ensemble forecast members are constructed by conducting simulation with these initial conditions. Some cases of typhoon are chosen to test the validity of this new method and the results show that： using the BDA perturbing method to perturb initial position and intensity of typhoon for track tbrecast can improve accuracy, compared with the direct use of the BDA assimilation scheme. And it is concluded that a perturbing amplitude of intensity of 5 hPa is probably more appropriate than 10 hPa if the BDA perturbing method is used in combination with initial position perturbation.