The sudden ocean warming and its potential influences on earlyfrozen landfast ice in the Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

The ocean conditions beneath the ice cover play a key role in understanding the sea ice mass balance in the polar regions.An integrated high-frequency ice-ocean observation system,including Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter,Conductivity-Temperature-Depth Sensor,and Sea Ice Mass Balance Array(SIMBA),was deployed in the landfast ice region close to the Chinese Zhongshan Station in Antarctica.A sudden ocean warming of 0.14℃(p<0.01)was observed beneath early-frozen landfast ice,from(−1.60±0.03)℃during April 16-19 to(−1.46±0.07)℃during April 20-23,2021,which is the only significant warming event in the nearly 8-month records.The sudden ocean warming brought a double rise in oceanic heat flux,from(21.7±11.1)W/m^(2) during April 16-19 to(44.8±21.3)W/m^(2) during April 20-23,2021,which shifted the original growth phase at the ice bottom,leading to a 2 cm melting,as shown from SIMBA and borehole observations.Simultaneously,the slowdown of ice bottom freezing decreased salt rejection,and the daily trend of observed ocean salinity changed from+0.02 d^(-1) during April 16-19,2021 to+0.003 d^(-1) during April 20-23,2021.The potential reasons are increased air temperature due to the transit cyclones and the weakened vertical ocean mixing due to the tide phase transformation from semi-diurnal to diurnal.The high-frequency observations within the ice-ocean boundary layer enhance the comprehensive investigation of the ocean’s influence on ice evolution at a daily scale.

Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Nina Conditions

The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content(OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year’s record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ(1 zetta J = 1021 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans,and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.

A Comparison of Polar Vortex Response to Pacific and Indian Ocean Warming

During recent decades, the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean has become increasingly warmer. Meanwhile, both the northern and southern hemispheric polar vortices （NPV and SPV） have exhibited a deepening trend in boreal winter. Although previous studies have revealed that the tropical Indian Ocean warming （IOW） favors an intensifying NPV and a weakening SPV, how the tropical Pacific Ocean warming （POW） influences the NPV and SPV remains unclear. In this study, a comparative analysis has been conducted through ensemble atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） experiments. The results show that, for the Northern Hemisphere, the two warmings exerted opposite impacts in boreal winter, in that the IOW intensified the NPV while the POW weakened the NPV. For the Southern Hemisphere, both the IOW and POW warmed the southern polar atmosphere and weakened the SPV. A diagnostic analysis based on the vorticity budget revealed that such an interhemispheric difference in influences from the IOW and POW in boreal winter was associated with different roles of transient eddy momentum flux convergence between the hemispheres. Furthermore, this difference may have been linked to different strengths of stationary wave activity between the hemispheres in boreal winter.

Detecting Regional Deep Ocean Warming below 2000 Meter Based on Altimetry,GRACE,Argo,and CTD Data

The deep ocean below 2000 m is a large water body with the sparsest data coverage,challenging the closure of the sea-level budget and the estimation of the Earth’s energy imbalance.Whether the deep ocean below 2000 m is warming globally has been debated in the recent decade.However,as the regional signals are generally larger than the global average,it is intriguing to investigate the regional temperature changes.Here,we adopt an indirect method that combines altimetry,GRACE,and Argo data to examine the global and regional deep ocean temperature changes below 2000 m.The consistency between high-quality conductivity-temperature-depth(CTD)data from repeated hydrographic sections and our results confirms the validity of the indirect method.We find that the deep oceans are warming in the Middle East Indian Ocean,the subtropical North and Southwest Pacific,and the Northeast Atlantic,but cooling in the Northwest Atlantic and Southern oceans from 2005 to 2015.

Polar Vortex Response to Pacific Ocean Warming and Its Additive Nonlinearity with the Indian Ocean

A previous modeling study about Pacific Ocean warming derived polar vortex response signals, by subtracting those in the Indian Ocean warming experiments from those in the Indo-Pacific. This approach questions the resemblance of such an indirectly derived response to one directly forced by Pacific Ocean warming. This is relevant to the additive nonlinearity of atmospheric responses to separated Indian and Pacific Ocean forcing. In the present study, an additional set of ensemble experiments are performed by prescribing isolated SST forcing in the tropical Pacific Ocean to address this issue. The results suggest a qualitative resemblance between responses in the derived and additional experiments. Thus, previous findings about the impact of Indian and Pacific Ocean wanning are robust. This study has important implications for future climate change projections, considering the non-unanimous warming rates in tropical oceans in the 21st century. Nevertheless, a comparison of present direct-forced experiments with previous indirect-forced experiments suggests a significant additive nonlinearity between the Indian and Pacific Ocean warmings. Further diagnosis suggests that the nonlinearity may originate from the thermodynamic processes over the tropics.

The Role of the Aerosol Indirect Effect in the Northern Indian Ocean Warming Simulated by CMIP5 Models

The northern Indian Ocean （NIO） experienced a decadal-scale persistent warming from 1950 to 2000, which has influenced both regional and global climate. Because the NIO is a region susceptible to aerosols emis- sion changes, and there are still large uncertainties in the representation of the aerosol indirect effect （ALE） in CMIP5 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5） models, it is necessary to investigate the role of the AIE in the NIO warming simulated by these models. In this study, the authors select seven CMIP5 models with both the aerosol direct and indirect effects to investigate their performance in simulating the basin-wide decadal-scale NIO warming. The results show that the decreasing trend of the downwelling shortwave flux （FSDS） at the surface has the major damping effect on the SST increasing trend, which counteracts the warming effect of greenhouse gases （GHGs）. The FSDS decreasing trend is mostly contrib- uted by the decreasing trend of cloudy-sky surface downwelling shortwave flux （FSDSCL）, a metric used to measure the strength of the AIE, and partly by the clear-sky surface downwelling shortwave flux （FSDSC）. Models with a relatively weaker AIE can simulate well the SST increasing trend, as compared to observation. In contrast, models with a relatively stronger AIE produce a much smaller magnitude of the increasing trend, indicat- ing that the strength of the AIE in these models may be overestimated in the NIO.

Remote forcing of Indian Ocean warming on Northwest Pacific during El Nio decaying years:a FOAM model approach

This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific （NWP） during the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Observation data and the Fast Ocean- Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone （ANWPA）. Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i,e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon （ISM） reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research.

Effect of Ocean Thermal Diffusivity on Global Warming Induced by Increasing Atmospheric CO_2

A global mean ocean model including atmospheric heating, heat capacity of the mixed layer ocean, and vertical thermal diffusivity in the lower ocean, proposed by Cess and Goldenberg (1981), is used in this paper to study the sensitivity of global warming to the vertical diffusivity. The results suggest that the behaviour of upper ocean temperature is mainly determined by the magnitude of upper layer diffusivity and an ocean with a larger diffusivity leads to a less increase of sea surface temperature and a longer time delay for the global warming induced by increasing CO2 than that with smaller one. The global warming relative to four scenarios of CO2 emission assumed by Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also estimated by using the model with two kinds of thermal diffusivities. The result shows that for various combinations of the CO2 emission scenarios and the diffusivities, the oceanic time delay to the global warming varies from 15 years to 70 years.

Contrast between the Climatic States of the Warm Pool in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific Ocean

Based on the analysis of Levitus data, the climatic states of the warm pool in the Indian Ocean (WPIO) and in the Pacific Ocean (WPPO) are studied. It is found that WPIO has a relatively smaller area, a shallower bottom and a slightly lower seawater temperature than those of WPPO. The horizontal area at different depths, volumes, central positions, and bottom depths of both WPIO and WPPO show quite apparent signals of seasonal variation. The maximum amplitude of WPIO surface area’s seasonal variation is 58% larger over the annual mean value. WPIO’s maximum volume variation amplitude is 66% larger over the annual mean value. The maximum variation amplitudes of the surface area and volume of WPPO are 20. 9% and 20.6% larger over the annual mean value respectively. WPIO and WPPO show different temporal and spatial characteristics mainly due to the different wind fields and restriction of ocean basin geometry. For instance, seasonal northern displacement of WPIO is, to some extent, constrained by the basin of the Indian Ocean, while WPPO moves relatively freely in the longitudinal direction. The influence of WPIO and WPPO over the atmospheric motion must be quite different.

Tropical Atlantic Climate Response to Different Freshwater Input in High Latitudes with an Ocean-Only General Circulation Model

Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanicinduced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

The atmospheric wet pool:definition and comparison with the oceanic warm pool

The oceanic warm pool （OWP） defined by sea surface temperature （SST） is known as the ＂heat reservoir＂ in the ocean. The warmest portion in the ocean mirrors the fact that the wettest region with the largest accumulation of water vapor （WV） in the atmosphere, termed atmospheric wet pool （AWP）, should be identified because of the well-known Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between SST and WV. In this study, we used 14-year simultaneous observations of WV and SST from January 1988 to December 2001 to define the AWP and investigate its coupling and co-variations with the OWE The joint examination of the area variations, centroid locations, and zonal migrations of the AWP and OWP lead to a number of interesting findings. The results hopefully can contribute to our understanding of the air-sea interaction in general and characterization of E1 Nifio/La Nifia events in particular.

Influence of the Eastern Indian Ocean Warm Pool Variability on the Spring Precipitation in China

The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool (EIWP) and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data, the reanalysis data of monthly grid wind field at 925 hPa with a resolution of 2.5° latitude and longitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR),and the monthly mean rainfall data from 160 observational stations in China. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China. The area, volume and intensity indices of the EIWP are negatively correlated with the spring precipitation in southwestern China, while they are positively correlated with the spring precipitation in the rest of China, especially in the northeast. For this correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China, it is found that the correlative relationship is mainly connected with the variations of the moisture transport by the warm air flow, which is under the influence of the EIWP variability, into the inland of China in spring. Two causative factors may influence this transport. One is the variation of the moisture transport carried by the warm air flow from the Arabian Sea influenced by the EIWP variability. The other is the variation of the equator-crossing flow (70°-90°E) influenced by the EIWP anomaly in the previous winter which exerts its effect on the moist warm air transported from the Southern Hemisphere. The position and intensity of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH)variability caused by EIWP variation also influence the spring precipitation in China.

Long-term trend of oceanic surface carbon in the Northwest Pacific from 1958 to 2017

Contrasting decrease and increase trends of sea surface temperature(SST)have been documented in the western Subarctic(WSA)and the rest of the Northwest Pacific(NWP)from 1958 to 2017,respectively.Consequently,more(less)total carbon dioxide(TCO_(2))due to ocean cooling(warming)is transported to the surface,which leads to increase(decrease)of oceanic surface partial pressure of carbon dioxide(pCO_(2)).With the combined influence of the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))level and changing ocean conditions,a prominent increase in oceanic surface pCO_(2) occurred with different rates of increase in summer and winter in the NWP.The oceanic surface pCO_(2) is mainly controlled by the variation of TCO_(2) at the interdecadal timescale and by SST at the seasonal timescale.Our results also indicate that increasing SST tends to strengthen the capability of ocean in absorbing anthropogenic CO_(2) in the NWP,while ocean’s uptaking ability is weakened in the cooling area of the WSA.

The Modeled Atmospheric and Oceanic Response to the South China Sea SST Anomaly

The sensitivity of the global atmospheric and oceanic response to sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) throughou the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated using the Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model(FOAM). Forced by a warming SST, the ex periment explicitly demonstrates that the responses of surface air temperature(SAT) and SST exhibit positive anomalous center ove SCS and negative anomalous center over the Northern Pacific Ocean(NPO). The atmospheric response to the warm SST anomalie is characterized by a barotropical anomaly in middle-latitude, leading to a weak subtropical high in summer and a weak Aleutian low in winter. Accordingly, Indian monsoon and eastern Asian monsoon strengthen in summer but weaken in winter as a result of wind convergence owing to the warm SST. It is worth noting that the abnormal signals propagate poleward and eastward away in the form of Rossby Waves from the forcing region, which induces high pressure anomaly. Owing to action of the wind-driven circulation, an anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation is induced with a primary southward current in the upper ocean. An obvious cooling appear over the North Pacific, which can be explained by anomalous meridional cold advection and mixing as shown in the analysises o heat budget and other factors that affect SST.

Extended Impact of Cold Air Invasions in East Asia in Response to a Warm South China Sea and Philippine Sea

During boreal winter,the invasion of cold air can lead to remarkable temperature drops in East Asia which can result in serious socioeconomic impacts.Here,we find that the intensity of strong synoptic cold days in the East China Sea and Indochina Peninsula are increasing.The enhanced synoptic cold days in these two regions are attributed to surface warming over the South China Sea and Philippine Sea(SCSPS).The oceanic forcing of the SCSPS on the synoptic cold days in the two regions is verified by numerical simulation.The warming of the SCSPS enhances the baroclinicity,which intensifies meridional wind and cold advection on synoptic timescales.This leads to a more extended region that is subject to the influence of cold invasion.

Linkage of the Decadal Variability of Extreme Summer Heat in North China with the IPOD since 1981

Extreme summer heat can have serious socioeconomic impacts in North China.Here,we explore the decadal variability of the number of extreme heat days in early-to-mid summer(June and July)and a related potential mechanism consistent with the major seasonal occurrence period of extreme heat events in North China(NCSH).Observational analyses show significant decadal variability in NCSH for 1981–2021,potentially linked to the Indo-Pacific warm pool and Northwest Pacific Ocean dipole(IPOD)in early-to-mid summer.Dynamic diagnostic analysis and the linear baroclinic model(LBM)show that the positive IPOD in early-to-mid summer can excite upward vertical wind anomalies in the South China-East China Sea region,shifting the position of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)to the east or weakening the degree of its control of the South China-East China Sea region,thus generating a positive geopotential height quadrupole(EAWPQ)pattern in the East Asia-Northwest Pacific region.Subsequently,the EAWPQ can cause air compression(expansion)over North China by regulating the tropospheric thickness anomalies in North China,thus increasing(decreasing)NCSH.Finally,an empirical model that incorporates the linear trend can better simulate the decadal NCSH compared to an empirical model based solely on the IPOD index,suggesting that the decadal variability of NCSH may be a combined contribution of the decadal IPOD and external linear forcing.

The Record-breaking Mei-yu in 2020 and Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Tropical SST Anomalies

The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley(YHRV)in 2020 was characterized by an early onset,a delayed retreat,a long duration,a wide meridional rainbelt,abundant precipitation,and frequent heavy rainstorm processes.It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation(QBWO)during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu,a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt,and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes.Correspondingly,during the mei-yu season,the monsoon circulation subsystems,including the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),the upper-level East Asian westerly jet,and the low-level southwesterly jet,experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO.Most notably,the repeated establishment of a large southerly center,with relatively stable latitude,led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly.This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes.Moreover,two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia,and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active,which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths.The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV.The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH,which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.

Cause of Extreme Heavy and Persistent Rainfall over Yangtze River in Summer 2020

Record-breaking heavy and persistent precipitation occurred over the Yangtze River Valley(YRV)in June-July(JJ)2020.An observational data analysis has indicated that the strong and persistent rainfall arose from the confluence of southerly wind anomalies to the south associated with an extremely strong anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific(WNPAC)and northeasterly anomalies to the north associated with a high-pressure anomaly over Northeast Asia.A further observational and modeling study has shown that the extremely strong WNPAC was caused by both La Niña-like SST anomaly(SSTA)forcing in the equatorial Pacific and warm SSTA forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean(IO).Different from conventional central Pacific(CP)El Niños that decay slowly,a CP El Niño in early 2020 decayed quickly and became a La Niña by early summer.This quick transition had a critical impact on the WNPAC.Meanwhile,an unusually large area of SST warming occurred in the tropical IO because a moderate interannual SSTA over the IO associated with the CP El Niño was superposed by an interdecadal/long-term trend component.Numerical sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that both the heating anomaly in the IO and the heating anomaly in the tropical Pacific contributed to the formation and maintenance of the WNPAC.The persistent high-pressure anomaly in Northeast Asia was part of a stationary Rossby wave train in the midlatitudes,driven by combined heating anomalies over India,the tropical eastern Pacific,and the tropical Atlantic.

Why Does Extreme Rainfall Occur in Central China during the Summer of 2020 after a Weak El Niño?

In summer 2020,extreme rainfall occurred throughout the Yangtze River basin,Huaihe River basin,and southern Yellow River basin,which are defined here as the central China(CC)region.However,only a weak central Pacific(CP)El Niño happened during winter 2019/20,so the correlations between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)indices and ENSO-induced circulation anomalies were insufficient to explain this extreme precipitation event.In this study,reanalysis data and numerical experiments are employed to identify and verify the primary ENSO-related factors that cause this extreme rainfall event.During summer 2020,unusually strong anomalous southwesterlies on the northwest side of an extremely strong Northwest Pacific anticyclone anomaly(NWPAC)contributed excess moisture and convective instability to the CC region,and thus,triggered extreme precipitation in this area.The tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)has warmed in recent decades,and consequently,intensified TIO basinwide warming appears after a weak El Niño,which excites an extremely strong NWPAC via the pathway of the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor(IPOC)effect.Additionally,the ENSO event of 2019/20 should be treated as a fast-decaying CP El Niño rather than a general CP El Niño,so that the circulation and precipitation anomalies in summer 2020 can be better understood.Last,the increasing trend of tropospheric temperature and moisture content in the CC region after 2000 is also conducive to producing heavy precipitation.

Sensitivity Experiments on the Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific under Warming Ocean Conditions

Recent studies found that in the context of global warming, the observed tropical cyclones （TCs） exhibit signific-ant poleward migration trend in terms of the mean latitude where TCs reach their lifetime-maximum intensity in the western North Pacific （WNP）. This poleward migration of TC tracks can be attributed to not only anthropogenic for-cing （e.g., continuous increase of sea surface temperature （SST））, but also impacts of other factors （e.g., natural vari- ability）. In the present study, to eliminate the impacts of other factors and thus focus on the impact of unvaried SST on climatological WNP TC tracks, the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model is used to con- duct a suite of idealized sensitivity experiments with increased SST. Comparisons among the results of these experi- ments show the possible changes in climatological TC track, TC track density, and types of TC track in the context of SST increase. The results demonstrate that under the warmer SST conditions, the climatological mean TC track sys-tematically shifts poleward significantly in the WNP, which is consistent with the previous studies. Meanwhile, the ocean warming also leads to the decreased （increased） destructive potential of TCs in low （middle） latitudes, and thus northward migration of the region where TCs have the largest impact. Further results imply the possibility that under the ocean warming, the percentage of TCs with westward/northwestward tracks decreases/increases distinctly.