The interannual atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction （AOSI） in high northern latitudes is studied with a global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model system, in which the model components of atmosphere and land sur...The interannual atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction （AOSI） in high northern latitudes is studied with a global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model system, in which the model components of atmosphere and land surface are from China National Climate Center and that of ocean and sea ice are from LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A daily flux anomaly correction scheme is employed to couple the atmosphere model and the ocean model with the effect of inhomogenity of sea ice in high latitudes is considered. The coupled model system has been run for 50 yr and the results of the last 30 years are analyzed. After the sea level pressure （SLP）, surface air temperature （SAT）, sea surface temperature （SST）, sea ice concentration （SIC）, and sea surface sensible heat flux （SHF） are filtered with a digital filter firstly, their normalized anomalies are used to perform the decomposition of combined complex empirical orthogonal function （CCEOF） and then they are reconstructed with the leading mode. The atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions in high northern latitudes during a periodical cycle （approximately 4 yr） are analyzed. It is shown that： （1） When the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is in its positive phase, the southerly anomaly appears in the Greenland Sea, SAT increases, the sea loses less SHF, SST increases and SIC decreases accordingly; when the NAO is in its negative phase, the northerly anomaly appears in the Greenland Sea, SAT decreases, the sea loses more SHF, SST decreases and SIC increases accordingly. There are similar features in the Barents Sea, but the phase of evolution in the Barents Sea is different from that in the Greenland Sea. （2） For an average of multi-years, there is a cold center in the inner part of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole. When there is an anomaly of low pressure, which is closer to the Pacific Ocean, in the inner part of the Arctic Ocean, anomalies of warm advection appear in the region near the Pacific Ocean and anomalies of cold advection appear in the region near the Atlantic Ocean. Accompanying with these anomalies of warm and cold advection in these two regions~ warm and cold anomalies appear respectively. Accordingly, SHF sent to the atmosphere from the sea surface decreases and increases, and SST increases and decreases~ SIC decreases and increases in these two regions. When there is an anomaly of high pressure in the inner part of the Arctic Ocean, the former relationships reverse. From these results~ it can be deduced that, during the interannual cycle of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, the variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation plays a dominant role and variations of SST and SIC are mainly responding to that of atmospheric circulation.展开更多
本文将1980-2021年江南5月降水作为研究对象,采用美国国家气候预测中心(Climate Prediction Center,CPC)降水、美国环境预测中心(National Center for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)大气环流以及英国气象局哈德莱中心(Met Office Hadl...本文将1980-2021年江南5月降水作为研究对象,采用美国国家气候预测中心(Climate Prediction Center,CPC)降水、美国环境预测中心(National Center for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)大气环流以及英国气象局哈德莱中心(Met Office Hadley Centre)海表面温度等资料,对江南5月降水年际变化特征及其与热带印度洋、太平洋的海表面温度异常(Sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)以及对流异常的可能联系进行了分析。结果表明,偏涝年通常伴随有自年前秋季开始发展的热带印度洋暖SSTA,5月同期对流层850 hPa在热带东印度洋至中国南海一带出现东风异常,同时热带印度洋上空对流活动旺盛,通过Hadley环流增强了在西北太平洋的下沉气流,共同增强了西北太平洋异常反气旋(Northwest Pacific anomaly anticyclone,WNPAC),促进了水汽向江南地区输送。热带印度洋中东部的冷SSTA自偏旱年前的冬季开始不断发展,在5月同期的热带印度洋异常冷洋面上空表现为对流抑制,与偏涝年相反的异常Hadley环流促使副高减弱东退,撤出南海,不利于水汽向江南地区输送。除热带印度洋外,热带太平洋和海洋性大陆地区的SSTA及其上空的对流活动异常与WNPAC和江南5月降水异常在一些年份也存在一定的关系,但较热带印度洋复杂。展开更多
气候变化已经成为小岛屿国家最关切的议题之一,但多数小岛屿国家受限于其发展程度,只能依赖他国援助和支持以应对气候变化产生的影响。近年以来,这种需求正在变得愈发迫切。在2023年11月签订的“澳—图睦邻联盟条约(Australia-Tuvalu Fa...气候变化已经成为小岛屿国家最关切的议题之一,但多数小岛屿国家受限于其发展程度,只能依赖他国援助和支持以应对气候变化产生的影响。近年以来,这种需求正在变得愈发迫切。在2023年11月签订的“澳—图睦邻联盟条约(Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty)”(以下简称“澳图条约”)中,图瓦卢以包括允许澳大利亚介入其外交和安全事务在内的高昂代价,换取澳大利亚的气候援助承诺。气候变化对小岛屿国家国际法人格和海洋权利的潜在影响,是理解双方合意缔结该条约真实动因的重要切入点。更为值得关注的是,“澳图条约”反映着部分大国以气候援助为支点,愈发深入地介入小岛屿国家内外事务的实践趋向。倘若类似“气候合作”由个例演变成固定的范式,大国将不断扩张在小岛屿国家的势力范围,其他小岛屿国家也将不得不为自身的生存而寻找大国的庇护,小岛屿国家为对抗大国控制而建立的区域组织也将被瓦解,进而彻底改变目前太平洋地区的地缘政治格局。大国与小岛屿国家应对气候变化的博弈,将对我国与小岛屿国家的深度合作产生潜在影响。有鉴于此,中国应从尊重国家主权和独立自主的基本立场出发,坚决抵制以气候合作为名干涉小岛屿国家内外事务的做法,并积极为小岛屿国家提供针对性的气候变化应对方案,推动前瞻性的“气候外交”布局。展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40675065the National Basic Research Priorities Program of China under Grant No.2005CB32170X.
文摘The interannual atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction （AOSI） in high northern latitudes is studied with a global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model system, in which the model components of atmosphere and land surface are from China National Climate Center and that of ocean and sea ice are from LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. A daily flux anomaly correction scheme is employed to couple the atmosphere model and the ocean model with the effect of inhomogenity of sea ice in high latitudes is considered. The coupled model system has been run for 50 yr and the results of the last 30 years are analyzed. After the sea level pressure （SLP）, surface air temperature （SAT）, sea surface temperature （SST）, sea ice concentration （SIC）, and sea surface sensible heat flux （SHF） are filtered with a digital filter firstly, their normalized anomalies are used to perform the decomposition of combined complex empirical orthogonal function （CCEOF） and then they are reconstructed with the leading mode. The atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interactions in high northern latitudes during a periodical cycle （approximately 4 yr） are analyzed. It is shown that： （1） When the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is in its positive phase, the southerly anomaly appears in the Greenland Sea, SAT increases, the sea loses less SHF, SST increases and SIC decreases accordingly; when the NAO is in its negative phase, the northerly anomaly appears in the Greenland Sea, SAT decreases, the sea loses more SHF, SST decreases and SIC increases accordingly. There are similar features in the Barents Sea, but the phase of evolution in the Barents Sea is different from that in the Greenland Sea. （2） For an average of multi-years, there is a cold center in the inner part of the Arctic Ocean near the North Pole. When there is an anomaly of low pressure, which is closer to the Pacific Ocean, in the inner part of the Arctic Ocean, anomalies of warm advection appear in the region near the Pacific Ocean and anomalies of cold advection appear in the region near the Atlantic Ocean. Accompanying with these anomalies of warm and cold advection in these two regions~ warm and cold anomalies appear respectively. Accordingly, SHF sent to the atmosphere from the sea surface decreases and increases, and SST increases and decreases~ SIC decreases and increases in these two regions. When there is an anomaly of high pressure in the inner part of the Arctic Ocean, the former relationships reverse. From these results~ it can be deduced that, during the interannual cycle of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, the variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation plays a dominant role and variations of SST and SIC are mainly responding to that of atmospheric circulation.
文摘气候变化已经成为小岛屿国家最关切的议题之一,但多数小岛屿国家受限于其发展程度,只能依赖他国援助和支持以应对气候变化产生的影响。近年以来,这种需求正在变得愈发迫切。在2023年11月签订的“澳—图睦邻联盟条约(Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty)”(以下简称“澳图条约”)中,图瓦卢以包括允许澳大利亚介入其外交和安全事务在内的高昂代价,换取澳大利亚的气候援助承诺。气候变化对小岛屿国家国际法人格和海洋权利的潜在影响,是理解双方合意缔结该条约真实动因的重要切入点。更为值得关注的是,“澳图条约”反映着部分大国以气候援助为支点,愈发深入地介入小岛屿国家内外事务的实践趋向。倘若类似“气候合作”由个例演变成固定的范式,大国将不断扩张在小岛屿国家的势力范围,其他小岛屿国家也将不得不为自身的生存而寻找大国的庇护,小岛屿国家为对抗大国控制而建立的区域组织也将被瓦解,进而彻底改变目前太平洋地区的地缘政治格局。大国与小岛屿国家应对气候变化的博弈,将对我国与小岛屿国家的深度合作产生潜在影响。有鉴于此,中国应从尊重国家主权和独立自主的基本立场出发,坚决抵制以气候合作为名干涉小岛屿国家内外事务的做法,并积极为小岛屿国家提供针对性的气候变化应对方案,推动前瞻性的“气候外交”布局。
