El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

Temperature trends and its elevation-dependent warming over the Qilian Mountains

Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,degradation of soils,and active layer thickness.EDW means that temperature is warming faster with the increase of altitude.In this study,we used observed temperature data during 1979-2017 from 23 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains(QLM)to analyze temperature trend with Mann-Kendall(MK)test and Sen’s slope approach.Results showed that the warming trends for the annual temperature followed the order of T_min>T_mean>T_max and with a shift both occurred in 1997.Spring and summer temperature have a higher increasing trend than that in autumn and winter.T_mean shifts occurred in 1996 for spring and summer,in 1997 for autumn and winter.T_max shifts occurred in 1997 for spring and 1996 for summer.T_min shifts occurred in 1997 for spring,summer and winter as well as in 1999 for autumn.Annual mean diurnal temperature range(DTR)shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.18°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017.Summer mean DTR shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.26°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017 with a shift occurred in 2010.After removing longitude and latitude factors,we can learn that the warming enhancement rate of average annual temperature is 0.0673°C/km/10a,indicating that the temperature warming trend is accelerating with the continuous increase of altitude.The increase rate of elevation temperature is 0.0371°C/km/10a in spring,0.0457°C/km/10a in summer,0.0707°C/km/10a in autumn,and 0.0606°C/km/10a in winter,which indicates that there is a clear EDW in the QLM.The main causes of warming in the Qilian Mountains are human activities,cloudiness,ice-snow feedback and El Nino phenomenon.

The Sword of Damocles behind the Curtain of the Earth’s Global Warming: A Review

The “mainstream” climatology (MSC)—i.e. which includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) community—considers the present day massive release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as the main cause of the current global warming trend. The main inference from this stance is that the increase in temperature must occur after the release of greenhouse gases originating from the anthropic activities. However, no scientific evidence has been provided for this basic notion. Earth paleoclimatic records document the antecedence of temperature over CO2 levels. For the past 65 Ma, the temperature parameter has controlled the subsequent increase in CO2. This includes the three rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients at 55 Ma, 34 Ma, and 23 Ma REF _Ref159913672 \r \h \* MERGEFORMAT [1]. The simple fact of their existence points to the potential for highly nonlinear responses in climate forcing. Whatever these shifts and transients are, CO2 remains a second order parameter in their evolution through time. Confronted with the past, a suitable response must therefore be given to the unresolved question of whether the CO2 trends precede the temperature trends in the current period, or not. The assertion that the current global warming is anthropogenic in origin implicitly presupposes a change of paradigm, with the consequence (the increase in CO2 levels) that occurred in Earth’s past being positioned as the cause of the warming for its present day climatic evolution. The compulsory assumption regarding the antecedence of CO2 levels over the temperature trends is associated with the haziness of the methodological framework—i.e. the paradigm—and tightens the research fields on the likely origins of global warming. The possible involvement of an “aberrant” natural event, hidden behind the massive release of greenhouse gases, has not been considered by the MSC.

Analysis of gravity wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings in the northern hemisphere

Due to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind,stratospheric sudden warmings(SSWs)can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves(GWs).The variation characteristics of GWs during SSWs have always been an important issue.Using temperature data from January to March in 2014−2016,provided by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate(COSMIC)mission,we have analyzed global GW activity at 15−40 km in the Northern Hemisphere during SSW events.During the SSWs that we studied,the stratospheric temperature rose in one or two longitudinal regions in the Northern Hemisphere;the areas affected extended to the east of 90°W.During these SSWs,the potential energy density(E_(p)of GWs expanded and covered a larger range of longitude and altitude,exhibiting an eastward and downward extension.The E_(p)usually increased,while partially filtered by the eastward zonal winds.When zonal winds weakened or turned westward,E_(p)began to strengthen.After SSWs,the E_(p)usually decreased.These observations can serve as a reference for analyzing the interaction mechanism between SSWs and GWs in future work.

Using satellite-derived land surface temperatures to clarify the spatiotemporal warming trends of the Alborz Mountains in northern Iran

The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area.This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500-4000 m above sea level.MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000-2021,and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST.The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May-August along the southern aspect.Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October,November,and March and an increasing trend in other months.At all elevations,the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect(0.60°C)than along the northern aspect(0.37°C).The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months.At the same elevation,the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months.With increasing elevation,the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared.Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April-July.

Night warming increases wheat yield by improving pre-anthesis plant growth and post-anthesis grain starch biosynthesis

Global climate change is characterized by asymmetric warming,i.e.,greater temperature increases in winter,spring,and nighttime than in summer,autumn,and daytime.Field experiments were conducted using four wheat cultivars,namely‘Yangmai 18’(YM18),‘Sumai 188’(SM188),‘Yannong 19’(YN19),and‘Annong 0711’(AN0711),in the two growing seasons of 2019-2020 and 2020-2021,with passive night warming during different periods in the early growth stage.The treatments were night warming during the tillering-jointing(NW_(T-J)),jointing-booting(NWJ-B),and booting-anthesis(NWB-A)stages,with ambient temperature(NN)as the control.The effects of night warming during different stages on wheat yield formation were investigated by determining the characteristics of dry matter accumulation and translocation,as well as sucrose and starch accumulation in wheat grains.The wheat yields of all four cultivars were significantly higher in NW_(T-J)than in NN in the 2-year experiment.The yield increases of semi-winter cultivars YN19 and AN0711 were greater than those of spring cultivars YM18 and SM188.Treatment NW_(T-J)increased wheat yield mainly by increasing the 1,000-grain weight and the number of fertile spikelets,and it increased dry matter accumulation in various organs of wheat at the anthesis and maturity stages by increasing the growth rate at the vegetative growth stage.The flag leaf and spike showed the largest increases in dry matter accumulation.NW_(T-J)also increased the grain sucrose and starch contents in the early and middle grain-filling stages,promoting yield formation.Overall,night warming between the tillering and jointing stages increased the pre-anthesis growth rate,and thus,wheat dry matter production,which contributed to an increase in wheat yield.

The sudden ocean warming and its potential influences on earlyfrozen landfast ice in the Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

The ocean conditions beneath the ice cover play a key role in understanding the sea ice mass balance in the polar regions.An integrated high-frequency ice-ocean observation system,including Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter,Conductivity-Temperature-Depth Sensor,and Sea Ice Mass Balance Array(SIMBA),was deployed in the landfast ice region close to the Chinese Zhongshan Station in Antarctica.A sudden ocean warming of 0.14℃(p<0.01)was observed beneath early-frozen landfast ice,from(−1.60±0.03)℃during April 16-19 to(−1.46±0.07)℃during April 20-23,2021,which is the only significant warming event in the nearly 8-month records.The sudden ocean warming brought a double rise in oceanic heat flux,from(21.7±11.1)W/m^(2) during April 16-19 to(44.8±21.3)W/m^(2) during April 20-23,2021,which shifted the original growth phase at the ice bottom,leading to a 2 cm melting,as shown from SIMBA and borehole observations.Simultaneously,the slowdown of ice bottom freezing decreased salt rejection,and the daily trend of observed ocean salinity changed from+0.02 d^(-1) during April 16-19,2021 to+0.003 d^(-1) during April 20-23,2021.The potential reasons are increased air temperature due to the transit cyclones and the weakened vertical ocean mixing due to the tide phase transformation from semi-diurnal to diurnal.The high-frequency observations within the ice-ocean boundary layer enhance the comprehensive investigation of the ocean’s influence on ice evolution at a daily scale.

Elevational patterns of warming effects on plant community and topsoil properties: focus on subalpine meadows ecosystem

Climate warming profoundly affects plant biodiversity, community productivity, and soil properties in alpine and subalpine grassland ecosystems. However, these effects are poorly understood across elevational gradients in subalpine meadow ecosystems. To reveal the elevational patterns of warming effects on plant biodiversity, community structure, productivity, and soil properties, we conducted a warming experiment using open-top chambers from August 2019 to August 2022 at high(2764 m a. s. l.), medium(2631 m a. s. l.), and low(2544 m a. s. l.) elevational gradients on a subalpine meadow slope of Mount Wutai, Northern China. Our results showed that three years of warming significantly increased topsoil temperature but significantly decreased topsoil moisture at all elevations(P<0.05), and the percentage of increasing temperature and decreasing moisture both gradually raised with elevation lifting. Warming-induced decreasing proportions of soil organic carbon(SOC, by 19.24%), and total nitrogen(TN, by 24.56%) were the greatest at high elevational gradients. Experimental warming did not affect topsoil C: N, p H, NO_(3)^(-)-N, or NH_(4)^(+)-N at the three elevational gradients. Warming significantly increased species richness(P<0.01) and Shannon-Weiner index(P<0.05) at low elevational gradients but significantly decreased belowground biomass(P<0.05) at a depth of 0–10 cm at three elevational gradients. Warming caused significant increases in the aboveground biomass in the three elevational plots. Warming significantly increased the aboveground biomass of graminoids in medium(by 92.47%) and low(by 98.25%) elevational gradients, that of sedges in high(by 72.44%) and medium(by 57.16%) elevational plots, and that of forbs in high(by 75.88%), medium(by 34.38%), and low(by 74.95%) elevational plots. Species richness had significant linear correlations with SOC, TN, and C: N(P<0.05), but significant nonlinear responses to soil temperature and soil moisture in the warmed treatment(P<0.05). The warmed aboveground biomass had a significant nonlinear response to soil temperature and significant linear responses to soil moisture(P<0.05). This study provided evidence that altitude is a factor in sensitivity to climate warming, and these different parameters(e.g., plant species richness, Shannon-Weiner index, soil temperature, soil moisture, SOC, and TN) can be used to measure this sensitivity.

Variability of the Pacific subtropical cells under global warming in CMIP6 models

The Pacific subtropical cells(STCs)are shallow meridional overturning circulations connecting the tropics and subtropics,and are assumed to be an important driver of the tropical Pacific decadal variability.The variability of STCs under global warming is investigated using multimodal outputs from the latest phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6)and ocean reanalysis products.Firstly,the volume transport diagnostic analysis is employed to evaluate how coupled models and ocean reanalysis products reproduce interior STC transport.The variation of heat transport by the interior STC under the high-emissions warming scenarios is also analyzed.The results show that the multimodal-mean linear trends of the interior STC transport along 9°S and 9°N are-0.02 Sv/a and 0.04 Sv/a under global warming,respectively,which is mainly due to the combined effect of the strengthened upper oceanic stratification and the weakening of wind field.There is a compensation relationship between the interior STC and the western boundary transport in the future climate,and the compensation relationship of 9°S is more significant than that of 9°N.In addition,compared with ocean reanalysis products,the coupled models tend to underestimate the variability of the interior STC transport convergence,and thus may lose some sea surface temperature(SST)driving force,which may be the reason for the low STC-SST correlation simulated by the model.The future scenario simulation shows that the heat transport of interior STC is weakened under global warming,with a general agreement across models.

Effects of Anthropogenic CO2 and Thermally-Induced CO2 on Global Warming

Changes in CO2 and temperature are correlated, but it is difficult to observe which is the cause and which is the effect. The release of CO2 dissolved in the ocean into the atmosphere depends on the atmospheric temperature. However, examining the relationship between changes in CO2 caused by other phenomena and temperature is difficult. Studies of soil respiration (Rs) since the late 20th century have shown that CO2 emissions from soil respiration (Rs) are overwhelmingly greater than CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. This is also noted in the IPCC carbon budget assessment. In this paper, the dependences of Rs on temperature, time, latitude, precipitation, seasons, etc., were investigated using the latest NASA database. The changes in temperature and Rs correlated well. There is also a good correlation between Rs and CO2 generation. Therefore, an increase in temperature results in an increase in CO2. On the other hand, there is no evidence other than model calculations that an increase in anthropogenic CO2 is mainly linked to a rise in temperature. The idea that global warming is caused by anthropogenic CO2 production is still a hypothesis. For these reasons, the relationship between global warming and anthropogenic CO2 should be reconsidered based on physical evidence without preconceptions. .

Air Pollution, Global Warming and Difficulties to Replace Fossil Fuel with Renewable Energy

Since the Industrial Revolution, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have greatly increased with the increased use of fossil fuels, leading to air pollution and global warming. We present the researches on air pollution and the use of fossil fuels in north China, the economic zone of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and the economic zone of the Pearl River Delta region. Researches indicate that the use of fossil fuels has been the main source of air pollution in the three regions. We present researches on global mean surface temperature (GMST) with the rise of carbon dioxide concentration (CDC) and global fossil fuel consumption (GFFC);researches indicate that the rise in CDC can account for 91% of the rise in GMST, and GFFC can account for 90% of the rise in GMST. We analyse the factors that bring about air pollution and temperature rise, they are the use of fossil fuels and deforestation. It is critically important to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, but renewable energy has also disadvantages. The world faces difficulties in solving air pollution and global warming, so governments of the world should cooperate to solve the technologies of clean energy, and preserve the forests and the natural environment.

Projected Regional 1.50℃and 2.00℃Warming Threshold-crossing Time Worldwide Using the CMIP6 Models

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2.00℃and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.50℃.However,the response of climate change to unbalanced global warming is affected by spatial and temporal sensitivities.To better understand the regional warming response to global warming at 1.50℃and 2.00℃,we detected the 1.50℃and 2.00℃warming threshold-crossing time(WTT)above pre-industrial levels globally using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6)models.Our findings indicate that the 1.50℃or 2.00℃WTT differs substantially worldwide.The warming rate of land would be approximately 1.35–1.46 times that of the ocean between 60°N–60°S in 2015–2100.Consequently,the land would experience a 1.50℃(2.00℃)warming at least 10–20 yr earlier than the time when the global mean near-surface air temperature reaches 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT.Meanwhile,the Southern Ocean between 0°and 60°S considerably slows down the global 1.50℃and 2.00℃WTT.In 2040–2060,over 98.70%(77.50%),99.70%(89.30%),99.80%(93.40%),and 100.00%(98.00%)of the land will have warmed by over 1.50℃(2.00℃)under SSP(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway)1–2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5,respectively.We conclude that regional 1.50℃(2.00℃)WTT should be fully considered,especially in vulnerable high-latitude and high-altitude regions.

Assessment of Sea Surface Temperature Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean Simulated by CMIP Models

The tropical Indian Ocean is an important region that affects local and remote climate systems,and the simulation of longterm trends in sea surface temperature(SST)is a major focus of climate research.This study presents a preliminary assessment of multiple model simulations of tropical Indian Ocean SST warming from 1950 to 1999 based on outputs from the 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP)Phase 5(CMIP5)models and the 36 CMIP 6(CMIP6)models to analyze and compare the warming patterns in historical simulations.Results indicate large discrepancies in the simulations of tropical Indian Ocean SST warming,especially for the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.The multimodel ensemble mean and most of the individual models generally perform well in reproducing basin-wide SST warming.However,the strength of the SST warming trends simulated by the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are weaker than those observed,especially for the CMIP6 models.In addition to the general warming trend analysis,decadal trends are also assessed,and a statistical method is introduced to measure the near-term variability in an SST time series.The simulations indicate large decadal variability over the entire tropical Indian Ocean,differing from observations in which significant decadal trend variability is observed only in the southeastern Indian Ocean.In the CMIP model simulations,maximum decadal variability occurs in boreal autumn,but the observations display the minimum and maximum variability in boreal autumn and spring,respectively.

Changes in soil microbial communities induced by warming and N deposition accelerate the CO 2 emissions of coarse woody debris

Warming and nitrogen(N)deposition are two important drivers of global climate changes.Coarse woody debris(CWD)contains a large proportion of the carbon(C)in the total global C pool.The composition of soil microbial communities and environmental changes(i.e.,N deposition and warming)are the key drivers of CWD decomposition,but the interactive impact between N deposition and warming on the composition of soil microbial communities and CWD decomposition is still unclear.In a laboratory experiment,we study and simulate respiration during decomposition of the CWD(C 98)of Cryptomeria japonica(CR)and Platycarya strobilacea(PL)in response to warming and N deposition over 98 days.Resuts show that either warming or N addition signifi cantly accelerated the C 98 of the two tree species by altering the soil microbial community(bacterial:fungi and G+:G–).The combined treatment(warming+N)resulted in a decomposition eff ect equal to the sum of the individual eff ects.In addition,the species composition of bacteria and fungi was obviously aff ected by warming.However,N deposition had a remarkable infl uence on G+:G–.Our results indicated that N deposition and warming will observably alter the composition and growth of the microbial community and thus work synergistically to accelerate CWD decomposition in forest ecosystems.We also present evidence that N deposition and warming infl uenced the composition and balance of soil microbial communities and biogeochemical cycling of forest ecosystems.

Negligible Warming Caused by Nord Stream Methane Leaks

Unanticipated sabotage of two underwater pipelines in the Baltic Sea(Nord Stream 1 and 2)happened on 26September 2022.Massive quantities of natural gas,primarily methane,were released into the atmosphere,which lasted for about one week.As a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO_(2),the potential climatic impact of methane is a global concern.Using multiple methods and datasets,a recent study reported a relatively accurate magnitude of the leaked methane at 0.22±0.03 million tons(Mt),which was lower than the initial estimate in the immediate aftermath of the event.Under an energy conservation framework used in IPCC AR6,we derived a negligible increase in global surface air temperature of 1.8×10^(-5)℃ in a 20-year time horizon caused by the methane leaks with an upper limit of 0.25 Mt.Although the resultant warming from this methane leak incident was minor,future carbon release from additional Earth system feedbacks,such as thawing permafrost,and its impact on the methane mitigation pathways of the Paris Agreement,warrants investigation.

Reclamation of Coastal Soil Salinity towards Sustainable Rice Production and Mitigating Global Warming Potentials in the Changing Climate

Soil salinity has become a major constraint to rice productivity in the coastal region of Bangladesh, which threatened food security. Therefore, field experiment was conducted at salt stressed Shyamnagor Upazilla of Satkhira district to improve the soil salinity status, sustainable rice production and suppression of global warming potentials. Selected soil amendments viz. trichocompost, tea waste compost, azolla compost and phospho-gypsum (PG) were applied in the field plots one week prior to rice transplanting. In addition, proline solution (25 mM) was applied on the transplanted rice plants at active vegetative stage. Gas samples from the paddy field were collected by Closed Chamber technique and analyzed in by Gas Chromatograph. The 25% replacement of chemical fertilizer (i.e., 75% NPKS) with trichocompost, tea waste compost, Azolla compost and Phospho-gypsum amendments increased grain yield by 4.7% - 7.0%, 2.3% - 7.1% 11.9% - 16.6% and 9.5% - 14.2% during dry boro rice cultivation, while grain yield increments of 5.0% - 7.6%, 2.3% - 10.2%, 12.8% - 15.3% and 10.2% - 15.3% were recorded in wet Aman season respectively, compared to chemically fertilized (100% NPKS) field plot. The least GWPs 3575 and 3650 kg CO2 eq./ha were found in PG Cyanobacterial mixture with proline (T10) and tea waste compost with proline (T8) amended rice field, while the maximum GWPs 4725 and 4500 kg CO2 eq./ha were recorded in NPKS fertilized (100%, T2) and NPKS (75%) with Azolla compost (T5) amended plots during dry boro rice cultivation. The overall soil properties improved significantly with the selected soil amendments, while soil electrical conductivity (EC), soil pH and Na+ cation in the amended soil decreased, eventually improved the soil salinity status. Conclusively, phospho-gypsum amendments with cyanobacteria inoculation and proline solution (25 mM) application could be an effective option to reclaim coastal saline soils, sustaining rice productivity and reducing global warming potentials.

Biophysical warming patterns of an open-top chamber and its short-term influence on a Phragmites wetland ecosystem in China

Passive-warming, open-top chambers(OTCs) are widely applied for studying the effects of future climate warming on coastal wetlands. In this study, a set of six OTCs were established at a Phragmites wetland located in the Yellow River Delta of Dongying City, China. With data collected through online transmission and in-situ sensors, the attributes and patterns of realized OTCs warming are demonstrated.The authors also quantified the preliminary influence of experimental chamber warming on plant traits.OTCs produced an elevated average air temperature of 0.8°C(relative to controls) during the growing season(June to October) of 2018, and soil temperatures actually decreased by 0.54°C at a depth of 5 cm and 0.46°C at a depth of 30 cm in the OTCs. Variations in diel patterns of warming depend greatly on the heat sources of incoming radiation in the daytime versus soil heat flux at night. Warming effects were often larger during instantaneous analyses and influenced OTCs air temperatures from-2.5°C to 8.3°C dependent on various meteorological conditions at any given time, ranging from cooling influences from vertical heat exchange and vegetation to radiation-associated warming. Night-time temperature depressions in the OTCs were due to the low turbulence inside OTCs and changes in surface soilatmosphere heat transfer. Plant shoot density, basal diameter, and biomass of Phragmites decreased by23.2%, 6.3%, and 34.0%, respectively, under experimental warming versus controls, and plant height increased by 4.3%, reflecting less carbon allocation to stem structures as plants in the OTCs experienced simultaneous wind buffering. While these passive-warming OTCs created the desired warming effects both to the atmosphere and soils, pest damages on the plant leaves and lodging within the OTCs were extensive and serious, creating the need to consider control options for these chambers and the replicated OTCs studies underway in other Chinese Phragmites marshes(Panjin and Yancheng).

Contribution of Energy Produced by Humanity to Global Warming

Civilization has reached such a level of development when the energy produced by humanity (the energy of civilization) begins to become a noticeable addition to the energy of incoming solar radiation. The energy of civilization accumulates in the surface layer, where human activity is concentrated, and dissipates in the form of heat, causing a rise in temperature. An equation is derived to calculate the contribution of civilization’s energy to global warming, which prove to be directly proportional to the accumulated energy of civilization and inversely proportional to the energy of solar radiation on the earth’s surface to the power of three-fourths. The coefficient of proportionality is expressed in terms of fundamental physical constants: Planck’s constant, the speed of light and the Boltzmann constant. It is shown that the contribution of energy of civilization is comparable with the role of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide over the past decades. To mitigate the negative effect, it is necessary to reduce the energy production and partially revise the environmental policy.

An Interdecadal Change in the Influence of the NAO on Atlantic-Induced Arctic Daily Warming around the Mid-1980s

After approaching 0℃owing to an Atlantic storm at the end of 2015,the Arctic temperature approached freezing again in 2022,indicating that Arctic daily warming events remain a concern.The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset was used to investigate the influence of the NAO on the Arctic winter daily warming events induced by Atlantic storms,known as the Atlantic pattern-Arctic Rapid Tropospheric Daily Warming(Atlantic-RTDW)event.Atlantic-RTDW events are triggered by Atlantic storms that transport warm and humid air masses moving into the Arctic.Furthermore,an interdecadal change in the influence of NAO on Atlantic-RTDW-event frequency was observed around the mid-1980s.Specifically,before the mid-1980s(pre-transition period),500-hPa southerly(northerly)wind anomalies occupied the North Atlantic(NA)in the positive(negative)phase of NAO,which increased(decreased)the Atlantic-RTDW events occurrence by steering Atlantic storms into(away from)the Arctic;thus,the NAO could potentially influence the Atlantic-RTDW-event frequency.However,the relationship between the NAO and the Atlantic-RTDW-event frequency has weakened since the mid-1980s(post-transition period).In the post-transition period,such 500-hPa southerly(northerly)wind anomalies over the NA hardly existed in the positive(negative)phase of NAO,which was attributed to a stronger Atlantic Storm Track(AST)activity intensity than that in the pre-transition period.During this period,the strong AST induced an enhanced NAOrelated cyclone via transient eddy-mean flow interactions,resulting in the disappearance of southerly and northerly wind anomalies over the NA.

Changes in the seasonal amplitude of northern ecosystem productivity under future global warming

观测显示过去几十年北半球大气二氧化碳季节幅度大幅增加,这主要是由北半球陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的增加所致。但是,因为气候变化和植被动态的不确定性,未来陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的变化还很不清楚.本工作利用全球植被动力学模式研究了全球变暖背景下北纬45°以北陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的变化.作者做了两大类试验:当代试验(1981-2000)和CMIP5RCP8.5变暖情景驱动的未来试验(2081-2100).结果显示,在RCP8.5变暖情景下北半球中高纬陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度整体增加,这是因为陆地净生态系统生产力的月最大值增加且月最小值减小.最大(最小)陆地净生态系统生产力的增加(减小)是由于总初级生产力的增加强(弱)于生态系统总呼吸,总初级生产力和生态系统总呼吸的变化都主要受地表气温和植被动态的驱动.本工作强调了植被动态对北半球中高纬陆地生态系统碳循环的关键调制作用,也强调了在地球系统模式中包含全球植被动力学模式的重要性。