To What Extent Does the Market Price of Imported Fishmeal Affect the Market Price of Pisciculture Products in Japan？ The Case of Yellowtail and Sea Bream

This study investigates the extent of the influence of imported fishmeal price changes on the market price of pisciculture products. To date, there have been only a few insufficient researches on this topic in Japan. This paper aims to reveal the causality relationship between the market price of imported fishmeal and the market price of pisciculture products using the granger causality test, and to simulate the market price of pisciculture products using impulse response functions as the price of imported fishmeal increases. The results of the granger causality test and impulse response function analyses were as follows： （1） there is a market linkage from the price of imported fishmeal to the market price of sea bream, but no causality with the market price yellowtail; and （2） this has a positive impact on the market price of sea bream when the price of imported fishmeal changes. Moreover, spillover effects were noticed in this simple scenario （at a market price of 800 yen/kg and one unit shock of 1 yen） of about 3 yen/kg.