Risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines hot work based on AHP-FCE

A new quantitative risk assessment method for hot work is proposed based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE).It can help pipeline companies realize the risk management of hot work and further ensure the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines.Taking one natural gas pipeline in China as an example,this paper evaluates the risk of a single hot work in the spring of one natural gas pipeline in a high consequence region.First of all,the risk factors are determined with reference to the job safety analysis(JSA),and then experts were invited to fill out a questionnaire to collect their opinions.According to the results of the questionnaire,AHP is used to calculate the weight coefficients of the evaluation indicators,and FCE is used to evaluate the risk level of hot work.After calculation,the comprehensive risk score of hot work is 40.888.It belongs to a"general risk".This method can not only quantitatively evaluate the risk levels of hot work,but also reasonably sort the importance of various risk factors.It is helpful for the effective management of hot work and provides suggestions for implementing control measures.

模糊聚类法在油气管道风险评价管段划分中的应用

在油气管道风险评价的管段划分过程中,若选用作为分段标准的管道属性对象太少,则管道的分段数目少,无法详细描述管道沿线各点的风险变化状况,也无法利用所得风险评价结果数据准确定位高风险管段并进行针对性的维护;相反,管道的分段数目过多,管道风险评价、结果分析的工作量则将成倍增加。为此,提出了利用模糊聚类法对油气管道进行动态分段的方法,并介绍了该方法的基本原理和一般步骤。实际应用结果表明:模糊聚类法通过选用不同的截距阵,可动态选取分段标准,使得管段划分的细密程度始终满足风险评价人员对目标的期望,使管段划分更加高效、合理,并且运用该方法选取管道属性对象作为划分标准及模糊聚类的计算过程都可以通过程序实现,提高了管段划分过程中计算的准确性和计算效率,从而提高了管道风险评价的准确性,降低了管道风险评价的成本。

引入重叠度指标的FPPC油气管道管段划分方法

为了准确、合理地划分油气管道的管段数目,有针对性地维护具有不同风险的管段,降低管道风险评价的成本,提出了一种改进的、引入重叠度指标的模糊投影寻踪聚类(FPPC)管段划分方法。从管道样本集的数据类特征出发,构造了同时考虑到类间稀疏度、重叠度和类内紧密度的投影指标函数,据此建立了改进的FPPC算法管段划分模型,并以我国某输气管道的管段划分为例,对比分析了改进算法与传统FPPC算法的管段划分效果。研究结果表明:(1)改进的FPPC模型无需制订相应的管道风险等级标准,克服了传统模型随机、模糊等主观性缺陷,将管段划分为4类更加合理准确;(2)设计的投影指标函数能够识别管道样本中的小类,提高了管段划分的聚类精度和可信度;(3)与投影寻踪聚类算法和传统的FPPC算法对比结果表明,改进的FPPC算法收敛速度更快、迭代次数更少。结论认为,该研究成果给出了更为科学的管段划分方法,为油气管道的风险评价提供了理论依据。