Status, trends and enlightenment of global oil and gas development in 2021

By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.

Analysis of the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021

The global exploration investment, new oil and gas discoveries, exploration business adjustment strategies of oil companies in 2021, and future favorable exploration domains are systematically analyzed using commercial databases such as IHS and public information of oil companies. It has been found that the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021 has continued the downturn since the outbreak of COVID-19. The investment and drilling workload decreased slightly, but the success rate of exploration wells, especially deepwater exploration wells, increased significantly, and the newly discovered reserves increased slightly compared with last year. Deep waters of the passive continental margin basins are still the leading sites for discovering conventional large and medium-sized oil and gas fields. The conventional oil and gas exploration in deep formations of onshore petroliferous basins has been keeping a good state, with tight/shale oil and gas discoveries made in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other countries. While strengthening the exploration and development of local resources, national, international, and independent oil companies have been focusing on major overseas frontiers using their advantages, including risk exploration in deep waters and natural gas. Future favorable exploration directions in the three major frontiers, the global deep waters, deep onshore formations, and unconventional resources, have been clarified. Four suggestions are put forward for the global exploration business of Chinese oil companies: first, a farm in global deepwater frontier basins in advance through bidding at a low cost and adopt the “dual exploration model” after making large-scale discoveries;second, enter new blocks of emerging hot basins in the world through farm-in and other ways, to find large oil and gas fields quickly;third, cooperate with national oil companies of the resource host countries in the form of joint research and actively participate exploration of deep onshore formations of petroliferous basins;fourth, track tight/shale oil and gas cooperation opportunities in a few countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and take advantage of mature domestic theories and technologies to farm in at an appropriate time.

Study on the Environmental Impact of Oil and Gas Field Development on the Ecological Red Line Area

To cooperate with the five ministries and commissions of the state to carry out joint investigation on the environmentally sensitive areas involved in oil and gas exploration and development,for the problems found in survey,containing complex type and numerous amount of ecologically sensitive space and ecological red line involved in oil and gas field enterprises,scientific nature of delimitation,lack of strong support of laws and regulations for forced withdrawal of oil and gas production facilities in these areas,some countermeasures and suggestions were proposed,such as further evaluating and combing scope and functional zoning of existing environmentally sensitive areas and ecological red lines,treating differently,enhancing pertinence of prohibition in ecologically sensitive regions,declining blindness of the withdrawal of oil and gas facilities in environmentally sensitive areas,strengthening seriousness of approval of exploration and mining rights of oil and gas resources,and establishing strategic reserve exploration and hierarchical development mechanism. Moreover,oil and gas field enterprises should integrate more efforts to ① accelerate to find out the current situation of environmental quality,② adhere to developing in protection,and protecting in development,③ increase attention and participation strengthen of providing technical support for national oil and gas exploration and development strategy evaluation,④ accelerate communication and docking with local governments on the ecological red line,⑤ actively strive to be included in the positive list management of local governments,⑥ accelerate to establish and perfect primary database of oil and gas production and facilities construction,and ⑦ document management information system of the ecological red line.

China Offshore Oil Industry and Foreign Investment

The history of China's offshore oil industry can be traced back to late 1950's when geophysical surveys started in limited offshore areas.Then,in 1960's and 1970's,a few exploratory wells scattered from north down to south were drilled resulting in a number of discoveries with the total proven oil in place being merely 40 million tons.In fact,the China's offshore oil industry in a real sence did not emerge on the horizon until early 1980's when China opened its door to outside world and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation(CNOOC)was born.

Measures of Environmental Protection of Petroleum Exploration and Development in Tarim Basin

ＭｅａｓｕｒｅｓｏｆＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔａｌＰｒｏｔｅｃｔｉｏｎｏｆＰｅｔｒｏｌｅｕｍＥｘｐｌｏｒａｔｉｏｎａｎｄＤｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｉｎＴａｒｉｍＢａｓｉｎＸｉａＪｉａｎｊｉａｎｇ（ＥｎｖｉｒｏｎｍｅｎｔＰｒｏｔｅｃｔｉｎｇＳｅｃｔｉｏｎ，Ｅｎ...

Research progress and challenges of natural gas hydrate resource evaluation in the South China Sea

As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including determination of the favorable distribution areas and favorable strata thickness,identification of the dual source for accumulation,evaluation of the prospective gas contents,verification of the widespread existence,and confirmation of the technical recoverability of NGH resources.However,there are three major challenges in the NGH studies.First,all the 24 national key and major projects in the SCS focused on trial production engineering and geological engineering in the past 20 years,while 8 of the 10 international NGH research projects focused on resource potential.Second,resource evaluation methods are outdated and some parameter selection are subjective.Third,the existing resource evaluation results are low-level with a great uncertainty,and cannot be used to guide NGH exploration and production or strategic research.To improve the evaluation of NGH resources in the SCS,future researches should focus on four aspects:(1)improve the research on the criterion of the objective existence of NGH and the method of prediction and evaluation;(2)apply new theories and methods from the global NGH research;(3)boost the research on the difference and correlation of the conditions of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in different basins;(4)innovate the theory and method of NGH resource potential evaluation.

Prospects of borehole NMR instruments and applications Dedicated to Professor Chaohui Ye on the occasion of his 80th birthday

Borehole nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)is a powerful technology to characterize the petrophysical properties of underground reservoirs in the petroleum industry.The rising complexity of oil and gas exploration and development objectives,as well as the novel application contexts of underground reservoirs,have led to increasingly demanding requirements on borehole NMR technology including instrument design and related processing methods.This mini review summarizes the advances and applications of borehole NMR instruments along with some future possibilities.It may be helpful for researchers and engineers in the petroleum industry to understand the development status and future trends of borehole NMR technology.

Reservoir accumulation conditions and key exploration&development technologies for Keshen gas field in Tarim Basin

The Keshen gas field is located in the central part of Kuqa foreland thrust belt in Tarim Basin,and is another large gas field discovered in Kuqa depression after Kela 2 gas field.Since the breakthrough in 2008,a number of large and medium scale gas reservoirs including Keshen 2,Keshen 5 and Keshen 8 have been discovered,that are characterized by ultra depth,ultra-high pressure,ultra-low porosity,ultra-low permeability,high temperature and high pressure.With natural gas geological reserves of nearly trillion cubic meters and production capacity of nearly 5.5 billion cubic meters,the Keshen gas field is the main natural gas producing area in Tarim Oilfield.The Keshen gas field is located in a series of thrusting imbrication structures in the Kelasu structural belt of Kuqa foreland thrust belt.The salt roof structure,plastic rheology of salt beds and pre-salt faulted anticlinal structure constitute the large wedge-shaped thrust body.The thick delta sandstone of the Cretaceous Bashijike Formation is widely distributed,and it forms the superior reservoir-caprock combination with overlying Paleogene thick gypsum-salt bed.The deep Jurassic-Triassic oil and gas migrate vertically along fault system formed in Late Himalaya,break through the thick Cretaceous mudstone and move laterally along the fracture system of the pre-salt reservoirs,to form anticline and fault anticline high pressure reservoir groups.Through near ten years of studies,the three-dimensional seismic acquisition and processing technology for complex mountainous areas,extrusion salt-related structural modeling technology and fractured low-porosity sandstone reservoir evaluation technology have been established,which lay a foundation for realization of oil and gas exploration objectives.Logging acquisition and evaluation technology for high temperature,high pressure,ultra-deep and low-porosity sandstone gas reservoirs,and efficient development technology for fractured tight sandstone gas reservoirs have been developed,which provide a technical support for efficient exploration&development and rapid production of the Keshen gas field.

Hydrocarbon accumulation conditions and key exploration and development technologies for PL 19-3 oilfield

The PL 19e3 Oilfield is the only super-large monolithic oilfield with oil and gas reserves up to 1×10^(9) t in the Bohai Bay Basin,and it has been successfully developed.Exploration and development practices have provided abundant data for analyzing formation conditions of this super-large oilfield.On the basis of the exploration and development history,fundamental reservoir features,and with available geological,geophysical and test data,the hydrocarbon accumulation conditions and key exploration&development technologies of the PL 19e3 Oilfield were discussed.The key conditions for forming the super-large Neogene oilfield include four aspects.Firstly,the oilfield is located at the high position of the uplift that contacts the brachy-axis of the multi-ridge slope in the biggest hydrocarbon-rich sag in the Bohai Bay Basin,thus it has sufficient hydrocarbon source and extremely superior hydrocarbon migration condition.Secondly,the large-scale torsional anticlines which formed in the Neogene under the control of the Tanlu strike-slipping movement provide sufficient storage spaces for oil and gas preservation.Thirdly,the“multiple sets of composite reservoir-caprock assemblages”developing in the special shallow-water delta further contributes greatly to the effective storage space for oil and gas preservation.Fourthly,due to the coupling of the uplift and strike slip in the neotectonic period,extensive faulting activities constantly released the pressure while the late period massive hydrocarbon expulsion of the Bozhong took place at the same time,which assures the constant and intense charging of oil and gas.The super-large PL 19e3 Oilfield was controlled by the coupling effects of all those special geologic factors.In view of this oilfield's features(e.g.violently reformation caused by strike slip,and the special sedimentary environment of shallow-water delta),some key practical technologies for exploration and development have been developed.Such technologies include:the special prestack depth migration processing for gas cloud zones,the prediction of thin interbed reservoirs based on high-precision inversion of geologic model,the reservoir description for the shallow-water braided river delta,the quantitative description for remaining oil in the commingled oil reservoirs with wide well spacing and long well interval,and the well pattern adjustment for formations during high water cut period in the complex fluvial-facies oilfields.

碳税对矿税制油田勘探开发投资的影响分析

作为温室气体最重要的排放者之一,石油公司在做出投资决策时被要求考虑碳排放对环境的影响。以矿税制合同下的某油田为例,分析碳税对油田勘探开发投资的影响,将碳成本整合到矿税制下油田的经济评价模型中,研究不同的碳税政策对油田盈利能力和石油公司投资决策的影响。主要结论:1)将碳税纳入到石油公司的决策中将显著影响油田的现金流,进而改变投资决策;2)对勘探开发和炼化过程中排放的二氧化碳征税是当前原油价格下的最佳征收范围;3)允许碳税从应税收入中扣除会通过税盾效应影响油田勘探开发投资,碳税越高,影响越明显。本研究提供了针对碳价、征收范围和抵扣政策的相关分析,以帮助石油公司进行更有效的预测,也为东道国政府的碳税政策提供多个组合;对油田的经济评价模型进行了改进,为石油公司的合同谈判提供决策支持。

全球油气勘探开发趋势及对我国油气行业的启示

通过对近20年来全球油气勘探开发投资、油气勘探活动、油气开发活动3个方面进行定性和定量分析,总结提炼出6点油气勘探开发趋势,并提出我国油气行业实现科学可持续发展的启示。预计未来5年全球油气勘探开发投资将回暖,但增速难达2003–2014年时期;勘探投入力度不足,可能引发资源接替问题;天然气勘探开发更受重视;深水油气资源对增储的贡献更加突出;非常规油气地位继续上升。因此,建议我国石油企业应继续保持较高的油气勘探力度,进一步加大天然气勘探开发,加强深水和非常规油气资源开发力度。

全球海洋油气勘探开发特征及趋势分析

全球海洋油气资源潜力丰富,探明率较低,是未来重要资源储备基地。随着技术的发展,深水油气产量和新增储量占比不断攀升。国际石油公司加大深水油气布局,并不断努力降低深水油气成本,深水油气已具备明显的竞争力。未来,全球海洋油气的投资规模将持续扩大,并将步入数字化时代,海上风力发电与海洋油气的关系更加紧密,同时边际油田将在未来越来越受到关注。我国海洋油气发展面临机遇和调整,应积极快速参与到全球海洋油气勘探开发项目中去,获取更多海外优质资源;制定我国深水油气资源发展战略,提升深水油气勘探开发能力;加强资源整合,加快推进油气业务数字化转型;统筹规划海洋空间利用和能源资源统一开发,协同发展海洋油气和海上风力发电产业。

油气勘探开发投资优化

以探明储量增长模型为基础建立了油气累计勘探投资与油气累计探明储量之间的关系模型;用数据包络分析法(DEA)建立了油气新建产能-油气开发工程建设投资模型。结合对数形式的油气开发操作成本模型构建了油公司油气开发投资-油气产量的关系模型;在投资-储量-产量关系模型的基础上,以企业利润最大化为目标,考虑产量构成、储采比及开采速度等方面的约束条件,构造了石油公司勘探开发投资多阶段优化模型,并用遗传算法给出了既定条件下石油公司多阶段最优化投资结构。该方法可以为石油公司制定长期发展战略规划、长期勘探开发投资方案提供方法依据,以减小勘探、开发投资中的盲目性及主观性,促进油气资源的合理、有序勘探开发。

国外大石油公司上游投资特点与启示

近年来国际油价发生戏剧性变化,国际投资环境也瞬息万变,石油公司面临着前所未有的挑战。通过分析埃克森美孚、英荷壳牌、BP、雪佛龙、道达尔和康菲六家国外大石油公司1998—2008年的上游投资规模、投资结构和投资地区分布情况,发现大石油公司的上游投资特点为:一方面通过勘探和收购获得新增储量,同时适时提高产量,以协调公司的长远利益与短期效益。另一方面,国外大石油公司注重风险控制,促进资产多样化,为公司的长远战略发展奠定基础。中国的石油公司应根据其优劣,注重勘探和资产收购相结合,确保储量的增长;重视上游资产收购的风险控制;调整投资地区分布结构,增强在全球的地位和国际上的竞争力。

基于Markowitz资产组合理论的油气勘探开发投资决策

利用Markowitz的资产组合模型对石油天然气工业上游勘探开发领域的风险分散问题进行了模拟决策。根据Markowitz理论,管理者在决策时不仅要依据价值,同时还要根据风险来对油气勘探开发投资组合进行决策。首先在油气行业实际假设的基础上,建立了一种改进的油气勘探开发Markowitz决策模型,然后利用模拟数据,分别得到了单个项目投资最大额有、无限制两种假设下的油气勘探开发决策有效前沿。研究结果表明,资产组合理论可以应用到油气勘探开发投资决策中。

中国油气供应安全面临新挑战——新形势下中国石油企业“走出去”发展战略思考

美国能源独立导致全球能源供给版图发生变化,并对全球油气供需格局、地缘政治等产生深远影响,中国油气供应安全面临新的挑战。中国的石油安全策略选择需由被动防御型向主动防御型转变。中国石油企业坚持"走出去"发展战略,加大海外油气投资,对保障中国油气供应安全具有重要意义。中国石油企业应发挥核心优势,突出战略聚焦、效益优先,坚定不移地扩大海外油气合作规模;利用中低油价窗口期,积极竞购优质油气资产;注重低成熟资产的配置,加大自主勘探开发力度;探索中国企业境外油气投资合作新机制,切实发挥协同效应,提升全球竞争力。

低油价对石油物探行业的影响及应对策略

受低油价的影响,国际石油公司大幅削减勘探开发投资,降低供应商成本,物探行业业务量减少,市场萎缩,产品及服务价格被压低,利润空间被压缩,物探行业步入"寒冬"期。物探公司股票下跌,市值缩水;收入、利润严重下滑,多数亏损;自由现金流减少,经营风险增加。物探公司采取了一系列应对措施:降本减支、裁员降薪、资产模式转型、非核心业务剥离、船队规模缩减等。在这样的行业背景下,中国石油物探企业应顺应石油上游发展趋势,将深海油气、非常规油气勘探作为长期发展战略。同时借鉴国外物探公司的应对策略,向轻资产模式转型,提高经营灵活性;加强技术和设备创新,发展尖端物探市场;精简业务结构,平衡业务发展,创新业务模式;降本减支,增强公司现金流。

俄罗斯油气政策与投资风险研究

俄罗斯为了适应不同时期经济发展和外交战略的需要,经常调整其油气政策,大体经历了私有化、再国有化和国家控制下的部分开放三个阶段,始终没有形成一个稳定的油气政策,而国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险就源于俄油气政策的不稳定性。当前,国际石油公司在俄投资主要面临政治、经济、管理体制和法律法规4方面的风险。政治方面,政策突变和恐怖活动是国际石油公司在俄投资所面临的最大风险;经济方面,俄罗斯单一的能源经济在面对国际金融危机时缺乏抵抗力,增加了在俄投资所面临的风险;管理体制方面,俄联邦政府-石油公司-地方政府的混合型管理体制造成国际石油公司在俄投资阻力重重;法律法规方面,俄罗斯不时调整、出台新的法律法规,极大地缩短了国际石油公司的风险预警时间。对此,在进入俄油气领域时,中国石油公司应特别加强与俄罗斯国家控股石油公司的合作;利用资产交换项目,曲线进入俄油气勘探开发市场;发挥自身技术比较优势,实现有效合作;注重工程服务项目与勘探开发项目齐头并进;要充分把握两个有利时间点,当机遇来临之时,果断介入。