Oil and Gas Supply and Demand in China and Its Development Strategy

The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China＇s future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China＇s oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.

Analysis of China’s Crude Oil Supply and Demand in the Year 2010 and the Year 2020

Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China＇s oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.

Primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand

This paper intends to complete the primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand. An integrated mathematical programming model is developed to simultaneously find the balance between supply and demand, and optimize the logistics scheme. The model takes minimum logistics cost and resource adjustment cost as the objective function, and takes supply and demand capacity, transportation capacity, mass balance, and resource adjustment rules as constraints.Three adjustment rules are considered in the model, including resource adjustment within oil suppliers,within oil consumers, and between oil consumers. The model is tested on a large-scale primary logistics of a state-owned petroleum enterprise, involving 37 affiliated refineries, 31 procurement departments,286 market depots and dedicated consumers. After the unified optimization, the supply and demand imbalance is eased by 97% and the total cost is saved by 7%, which proves the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model.

Status, trends and enlightenment of global oil and gas development in 2021

By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.

Changes in China--Beijing is seeking less energy-intensive economic growth ＆ a less carbon-intensive energy mix and its impact over oil ＆ gas supply

Having experienced over 30 years of rapid growth,China’s economic development is entering a new normal featured by an ever optimizing economic structure shifting from high-speed to medium-high speed growth,and from factor-driven to innovation-driven pattern.In adapting

China's Oil Demand and Resource Potential

The analysis based on the statistics conducted in the past decades shows that China's oil demand will rise by about 0.7 percent for every 1 percent increase in its gross national product(GNP).The oil demand will have to climb by 6 percent on average each year if the country registers an average annual increase of 9 percent in its GNP.The oil demand is expected to rise by 5 percent annually in the upcoming years even if the efforts are made to upgrade the equipment and tech-nology and boost the efficiency.

Analysis of Supply Chain Sustainability Drivers in the Oil and Gas Industry under Covid-19 Pandemic

The supply chain of many industries,including Oil and Gas,was significantly affected by the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.This,in turn,had a knock-on effect on other industries around the globe.Sustaining the impact of the disruption posed a major challenge for the industry.This study contributes to the existing literature by identifying and analyzing the most significant drivers that affected the sustainability of the Oil and Gas supply chain during the Covid pandemic.Fifteen drivers were identified based on an extensive literature review and a survey conducted with experts working in the Oil and Gas industry.Multi-criteria decision-making methodologies were used to analyze these drivers.The analysis from the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process found that the most important drivers for the sustainability of the Oil and gas supply chain during the pandemic were"Risk management capacity","Government regulation"and"Health and safety of employees".On the other hand,the driver"Community Pressure"was found to be of the least importance.Furthermore,the study integrated the results of the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process with the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to calculate the supply chain sustainability index.A case example was demonstrated to rank the industries based on such calculations.This study can support the governmental institutions in benchmarking the Oil and Gas industry based on its sustainability index.Additionally,the outcomes of the study will help industrial decision makers prioritize the drivers the company should focus and devise strategies based on the priority to improve the sustainability of their supply chain during severe disruption.This will be crucial as the World health organization has cautioned that the world may encounter another pandemic in the near future.

Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries

The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from January 1999 to March 2020.We adopt a similar approach to Kilian(Am Econ Rev 99(3):1053–1069,2009)and construct a structural vector autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock,oil aggregate demand shock,and oil-specific demand shock.We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the decomposed oil price shocks,we apply the connectedness approach and QQ regression to find time-varying co-movements and tail dependence between oil price shocks and G7 stock returns.There is no general correlation between the decomposed oil prices and stock returns in these countries.The effects of oil price shocks on stock returns across different stock market conditions appear to be heterogeneous.Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within the sample period.

Review and Outlook of China's Oil Market in 2015

Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil imports increased rapidly, and external dependence of crude oil and oil broke through 60% separately. The State adjusted the prices of gasoline and diesel timely and frequently, based on pricing mechanism. Price hike was higher than reduction. Oil market got weak, yet more stable. China increased the pace of reforms in marketization. In the second half, oil demand will increase continuously but with lower growth rate, oil production will rise more slowly, imports of crude oil and oil will keep on rising rapidly, gasoline and kerosene as well as diesel will witness a net import, and the market of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will be more stable.

Petroleum Distribution Characteristics of the Americas and the Exploration Prospect Analysis

The world＇s present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world＇s second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world＇s largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world＇s total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world＇s total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle- Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural-stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural- unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic- structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic-structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low-uplift belt and supra-salt central low-uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural-stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area.

China's Excess Oil Refining Production Capacity in the Background of the Supply Side Structural Reform

Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production capacity of the oil refining industry of China. Due to the entry of the Chinese economy into the new normal,the accelerated substitution of old energy by new energy and rigid restrictions composed of low carbon and environmental protection requirements, the oil demand of China will continue to increase overall, but the growth will obviously slow down. At the same time, the newly-increased production capacity in Shandong and coastal region will continuously expand, the supply and demand contradiction will intensify, and the structural excess production capacity of the oil refining industry of China will be prominent. It is suggested that the government should attach great importance to the production capacity of the oil refining industry at the macro level, and deeply carry forward the supply side structural reform, and that enterprises should speed up technical innovation,enhance regional and layout optimization, adapt to market changes and adjust product structure, control oil refining but increase chemical engineering, improve product quality and production efficiency, and constantly promote the international competitiveness of the Chinese petrochemical industry.

中国成品油市场2023年回顾与2024年供需分析预测

回顾2023年中国成品油市场发展,结合国内经济发展各种因素,对2024年成品油市场进行预测。分析认为:2023年中国成品油需求持续复苏,消费属性突出的汽油和航空煤油(航煤)消费大幅增长,经济增速加快拉动柴油消费温和增长,中国成品油消费量预估为3.66×10^(8)t,同比增长12.2%,为2011年以来再次出现两位数增长;成品油消费税扩围征收提高了调合油的原料成本,减少了低价资源数量;出口配额大幅增加则缓解了国内资源过剩压力。2024年,消费对经济增长的贡献将继续加大,航煤消费将持续快速增长,汽车电动化将导致汽油消费增速大幅放缓,能耗双控逐步转向碳排放双控,柴油消费量将重回下降通道。2024年中国成品油市场仍将呈现供需双增的良好态势,消费量预计为3.69×10^(8)t,较2023年小幅增长0.8%;地方炼厂成品油资源持续增加,国内成品油过剩规模将超过5000×10^(4)t,国内市场竞争形势依然严峻。

2023年中国成品油行业运行特点与近期展望

2023年,中国炼油产能再创新高,炼厂开工率回升,成品油产量大幅增长;成品油消费恢复至疫情前水平,不同品种恢复节奏存在差异,航空煤油消费明显恢复;成品油消费结构变化明显,供需差量扩大;在国际原油价格高位宽幅震荡背景下,成品油批发价格小幅增长;成品油商业库存“汽跌柴涨”,油库建设需求旺盛;成品油进口大幅下降,俄罗斯成为中国成品油进口主要来源国,成品油出口量继续增加,主要出口至新加坡;多项市场专项整治方案出台,规范成品油市场运行,推动行业高质量发展。2024年,中国成品油市场监管仍将持续完善,炼油行业将继续扩能,成品油产量将继续增长,成品油消费将回归低速增长通道,国际原油价格将宽幅震荡加剧成品油市场价格波动风险。

中国基础油市场发展现状分析及展望

基础油约占润滑油原材料的70%~99%,对润滑油的质量、性能和生产成本起到重要的作用。2019年以来,随着国内多套新建和改扩建基础油装置陆续投产,中国基础油产能大幅增加。在经济增速、终端需求、环保政策以及燃油经济性和长换油期等因素综合影响下,中国基础油需求量增速放缓,产业升级也在持续进行。中国基础油市场逐步呈现结构性过剩的局面。未来,随着国内产品指标的提升和产能结构的优化,中国基础油进口依存度有望进一步降低。

Operation of Off-grid Power Supply System Using IoT Monitoring Platform for Oil and Gas Pipeline Based on RESOC

An oil and gas pipeline monitoring platform uses internet of things(IoT)to ensure safe operation in remote and unattended areas,through automatic monitoring and systematic control on equipment such as the cut-off valves and cathodic protection systems.The continuity and stability of power supplies for various equipment of an oil and gas pipeline IoT monitoring platform is crucial.There is no single universal off-grid power supply method that is optimal for an oil and gas pipeline IoT monitoring platform in all different contexts.Therefore,it is necessary to select a suitable one according to the specific geographical location and meteorological conditions.This paper proposes an off-grid power supply system comprised of a reversible solid oxide fuel cell(RESOC),photovoltaic(PV)and battery.Minimum operating costs and the reliability of system operations under constraint conditions are the key determining objectives.A“PV+battery+RESOC”system operational optimization model is established.Based on the model,three types of off-grid power supply schemes are proposed,and three geographical locations with different meteorological conditions are selected as practical application scenarios.The Matlab Cplex solver is used to solve the different power supply modes of the three regions.And finally,the power supply scheme with the best reliability and economy under different geographical environments and meteorological conditions is obtained.

国际原油市场2023年回顾和2024年展望

近年来,国际油价在“OPEC+”产量政策、美联储货币政策、地缘局势动荡等因素影响下震荡加剧,对石油企业的生产经营造成了巨大挑战。以国际油价演变为主线,从供需、地缘、金融等角度回顾了2023年国际原油市场的特点:从需求侧看,欧美需求由“降”转“稳”,中国、印度两国带动全球原油需求稳定增长;从供给侧看,“OPEC+”坚持减产保价策略不动摇,美国、伊朗成为主要增产国;叠加地缘冲突加剧、欧美央行维持高利率,国际油价宽幅波动,布伦特原油均价为82美元/桶,同比下降16.8%。立足关键要素的边际变化,从需求增幅收窄、“OPEC+”延长减产、美元进入降息周期及地缘博弈持续等维度展望了2024年国际原油市场,得出全年油价或同比小幅上行的结论,以期为油气行业生产经营提供决策参考。

我国润滑油基础油生产结构变化研究

文章介绍了我国润滑油基础油生产现状,重点分析了各类基础油的工艺技术和生产情况,并对基础油生产结构发展方向进行了展望。

燃料油市场现状与未来发展分析

长期来看,随着碳中和目标在全球范围内不断推进,世界燃料油供需两端总体将呈收缩态势。近期以来,受到疫情冲击、地缘局势等影响,全球与中国燃料油需求结构均呈现较大变化,特别是中国低硫燃料油的扩能导致区域市场规模增长显著。航运领域是未来中国燃料油市场发展的重点,尽管受到替代燃料的影响,但在经济贸易增长、地缘关系变化与货物流向重构等因素的影响下,中国外贸船加油市场有望取得进一步发展。

Natural Gas Management of Bangladesh:Energy Powerhouse of SE Asia?

Already Bangladesh has proven to be a natural gas giant in the region and to the energy producing community of the world.The Bangladesh sub-surface is according to the present knowledge mainly gas prone,with some potential for future oil discoveries. Within the 144549 km^2 territory,Bangladesh has

中国成品油市场2022年回顾与2023年供需预测

2022年疫情防控工作贯穿全年社会生活,消费属性突出的汽油和航空煤油消费被抑制,替代能源持续增加,中国成品油消费量为3.26亿吨,与上年相比减少7%,创历史最大降幅。受需求萎缩、出口配额从紧管理等影响,成品油生产侧出现产能上升但产量下降的情况。汽柴油替代能源超过6500万吨,其中LNG占比达到63%。2023年,经济建设重新成为社会发展重心,消费修复,成品油增长动力回归;新炼厂产能释放,成品油市场将呈现供需两旺局面。预计2023年中国成品油消费量为3.60亿吨,与上年相比增长10.5%,汽油和煤油消费量将在低基数上实现两位数的高增长,柴油消费量微增;汽柴油替代能源消费量预计增长14%以上,增量主要来自电动力。