The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China's future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting t...The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China's future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China's oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.展开更多
Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand a...Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.展开更多
This paper intends to complete the primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand. An integrated mathematical programming model is developed to simultaneously find the balance betw...This paper intends to complete the primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand. An integrated mathematical programming model is developed to simultaneously find the balance between supply and demand, and optimize the logistics scheme. The model takes minimum logistics cost and resource adjustment cost as the objective function, and takes supply and demand capacity, transportation capacity, mass balance, and resource adjustment rules as constraints.Three adjustment rules are considered in the model, including resource adjustment within oil suppliers,within oil consumers, and between oil consumers. The model is tested on a large-scale primary logistics of a state-owned petroleum enterprise, involving 37 affiliated refineries, 31 procurement departments,286 market depots and dedicated consumers. After the unified optimization, the supply and demand imbalance is eased by 97% and the total cost is saved by 7%, which proves the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model.展开更多
By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their ye...By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.展开更多
Having experienced over 30 years of rapid growth,China’s economic development is entering a new normal featured by an ever optimizing economic structure shifting from high-speed to medium-high speed growth,and from f...Having experienced over 30 years of rapid growth,China’s economic development is entering a new normal featured by an ever optimizing economic structure shifting from high-speed to medium-high speed growth,and from factor-driven to innovation-driven pattern.In adapting展开更多
The analysis based on the statistics conducted in the past decades shows that China's oil demand will rise by about 0.7 percent for every 1 percent increase in its gross national product(GNP).The oil demand will h...The analysis based on the statistics conducted in the past decades shows that China's oil demand will rise by about 0.7 percent for every 1 percent increase in its gross national product(GNP).The oil demand will have to climb by 6 percent on average each year if the country registers an average annual increase of 9 percent in its GNP.The oil demand is expected to rise by 5 percent annually in the upcoming years even if the efforts are made to upgrade the equipment and tech-nology and boost the efficiency.展开更多
The supply chain of many industries,including Oil and Gas,was significantly affected by the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.This,in turn,had a knock-on effect on other industries around the globe.Sustaining th...The supply chain of many industries,including Oil and Gas,was significantly affected by the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.This,in turn,had a knock-on effect on other industries around the globe.Sustaining the impact of the disruption posed a major challenge for the industry.This study contributes to the existing literature by identifying and analyzing the most significant drivers that affected the sustainability of the Oil and Gas supply chain during the Covid pandemic.Fifteen drivers were identified based on an extensive literature review and a survey conducted with experts working in the Oil and Gas industry.Multi-criteria decision-making methodologies were used to analyze these drivers.The analysis from the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process found that the most important drivers for the sustainability of the Oil and gas supply chain during the pandemic were"Risk management capacity","Government regulation"and"Health and safety of employees".On the other hand,the driver"Community Pressure"was found to be of the least importance.Furthermore,the study integrated the results of the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process with the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to calculate the supply chain sustainability index.A case example was demonstrated to rank the industries based on such calculations.This study can support the governmental institutions in benchmarking the Oil and Gas industry based on its sustainability index.Additionally,the outcomes of the study will help industrial decision makers prioritize the drivers the company should focus and devise strategies based on the priority to improve the sustainability of their supply chain during severe disruption.This will be crucial as the World health organization has cautioned that the world may encounter another pandemic in the near future.展开更多
The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from Janua...The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from January 1999 to March 2020.We adopt a similar approach to Kilian(Am Econ Rev 99(3):1053–1069,2009)and construct a structural vector autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock,oil aggregate demand shock,and oil-specific demand shock.We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the decomposed oil price shocks,we apply the connectedness approach and QQ regression to find time-varying co-movements and tail dependence between oil price shocks and G7 stock returns.There is no general correlation between the decomposed oil prices and stock returns in these countries.The effects of oil price shocks on stock returns across different stock market conditions appear to be heterogeneous.Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within the sample period.展开更多
Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil i...Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil imports increased rapidly, and external dependence of crude oil and oil broke through 60% separately. The State adjusted the prices of gasoline and diesel timely and frequently, based on pricing mechanism. Price hike was higher than reduction. Oil market got weak, yet more stable. China increased the pace of reforms in marketization. In the second half, oil demand will increase continuously but with lower growth rate, oil production will rise more slowly, imports of crude oil and oil will keep on rising rapidly, gasoline and kerosene as well as diesel will witness a net import, and the market of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will be more stable.展开更多
The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second larg...The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world's largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world's total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world's total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle- Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural-stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural- unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic- structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic-structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low-uplift belt and supra-salt central low-uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural-stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area.展开更多
Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production ca...Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production capacity of the oil refining industry of China. Due to the entry of the Chinese economy into the new normal,the accelerated substitution of old energy by new energy and rigid restrictions composed of low carbon and environmental protection requirements, the oil demand of China will continue to increase overall, but the growth will obviously slow down. At the same time, the newly-increased production capacity in Shandong and coastal region will continuously expand, the supply and demand contradiction will intensify, and the structural excess production capacity of the oil refining industry of China will be prominent. It is suggested that the government should attach great importance to the production capacity of the oil refining industry at the macro level, and deeply carry forward the supply side structural reform, and that enterprises should speed up technical innovation,enhance regional and layout optimization, adapt to market changes and adjust product structure, control oil refining but increase chemical engineering, improve product quality and production efficiency, and constantly promote the international competitiveness of the Chinese petrochemical industry.展开更多
An oil and gas pipeline monitoring platform uses internet of things(IoT)to ensure safe operation in remote and unattended areas,through automatic monitoring and systematic control on equipment such as the cut-off valv...An oil and gas pipeline monitoring platform uses internet of things(IoT)to ensure safe operation in remote and unattended areas,through automatic monitoring and systematic control on equipment such as the cut-off valves and cathodic protection systems.The continuity and stability of power supplies for various equipment of an oil and gas pipeline IoT monitoring platform is crucial.There is no single universal off-grid power supply method that is optimal for an oil and gas pipeline IoT monitoring platform in all different contexts.Therefore,it is necessary to select a suitable one according to the specific geographical location and meteorological conditions.This paper proposes an off-grid power supply system comprised of a reversible solid oxide fuel cell(RESOC),photovoltaic(PV)and battery.Minimum operating costs and the reliability of system operations under constraint conditions are the key determining objectives.A“PV+battery+RESOC”system operational optimization model is established.Based on the model,three types of off-grid power supply schemes are proposed,and three geographical locations with different meteorological conditions are selected as practical application scenarios.The Matlab Cplex solver is used to solve the different power supply modes of the three regions.And finally,the power supply scheme with the best reliability and economy under different geographical environments and meteorological conditions is obtained.展开更多
Already Bangladesh has proven to be a natural gas giant in the region and to the energy producing community of the world.The Bangladesh sub-surface is according to the present knowledge mainly gas prone,with some pote...Already Bangladesh has proven to be a natural gas giant in the region and to the energy producing community of the world.The Bangladesh sub-surface is according to the present knowledge mainly gas prone,with some potential for future oil discoveries. Within the 144549 km^2 territory,Bangladesh has展开更多
文摘The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China's future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China's oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.
文摘Along with the speedy development of the economic growth in China, the shortage of oil and gas becomes more and more serious. Based on summarizing some related research results, the prediction of China's oil demand and supply in the year 2010 and the year 2020 has been given in the paper. The oil supply and demand situation is discussed on three different levels. Accordingly, suggestions about the oil supply safety and the national economy safety strategies have been given.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51874325)the Science Foundation of China University of PetroleumBeijing (2462021BJRC009)。
文摘This paper intends to complete the primary logistics planning of oil products under the imbalance of supply and demand. An integrated mathematical programming model is developed to simultaneously find the balance between supply and demand, and optimize the logistics scheme. The model takes minimum logistics cost and resource adjustment cost as the objective function, and takes supply and demand capacity, transportation capacity, mass balance, and resource adjustment rules as constraints.Three adjustment rules are considered in the model, including resource adjustment within oil suppliers,within oil consumers, and between oil consumers. The model is tested on a large-scale primary logistics of a state-owned petroleum enterprise, involving 37 affiliated refineries, 31 procurement departments,286 market depots and dedicated consumers. After the unified optimization, the supply and demand imbalance is eased by 97% and the total cost is saved by 7%, which proves the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model.
基金Scientific Research and Technology Development Project(2021DJ3205)。
文摘By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.
文摘Having experienced over 30 years of rapid growth,China’s economic development is entering a new normal featured by an ever optimizing economic structure shifting from high-speed to medium-high speed growth,and from factor-driven to innovation-driven pattern.In adapting
文摘The analysis based on the statistics conducted in the past decades shows that China's oil demand will rise by about 0.7 percent for every 1 percent increase in its gross national product(GNP).The oil demand will have to climb by 6 percent on average each year if the country registers an average annual increase of 9 percent in its GNP.The oil demand is expected to rise by 5 percent annually in the upcoming years even if the efforts are made to upgrade the equipment and tech-nology and boost the efficiency.
文摘The supply chain of many industries,including Oil and Gas,was significantly affected by the disruption caused by the Covid pandemic.This,in turn,had a knock-on effect on other industries around the globe.Sustaining the impact of the disruption posed a major challenge for the industry.This study contributes to the existing literature by identifying and analyzing the most significant drivers that affected the sustainability of the Oil and Gas supply chain during the Covid pandemic.Fifteen drivers were identified based on an extensive literature review and a survey conducted with experts working in the Oil and Gas industry.Multi-criteria decision-making methodologies were used to analyze these drivers.The analysis from the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process found that the most important drivers for the sustainability of the Oil and gas supply chain during the pandemic were"Risk management capacity","Government regulation"and"Health and safety of employees".On the other hand,the driver"Community Pressure"was found to be of the least importance.Furthermore,the study integrated the results of the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process with the fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution to calculate the supply chain sustainability index.A case example was demonstrated to rank the industries based on such calculations.This study can support the governmental institutions in benchmarking the Oil and Gas industry based on its sustainability index.Additionally,the outcomes of the study will help industrial decision makers prioritize the drivers the company should focus and devise strategies based on the priority to improve the sustainability of their supply chain during severe disruption.This will be crucial as the World health organization has cautioned that the world may encounter another pandemic in the near future.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of PRC(71971098).
文摘The link between crude oil price and stock returns of the Group of Seven(G7)countries(Canada,France,Germany,Italy,Japan,the United Kingdom,and the United States)was analyzed in this study using monthly data from January 1999 to March 2020.We adopt a similar approach to Kilian(Am Econ Rev 99(3):1053–1069,2009)and construct a structural vector autoregression framework to decompose crude oil price shocks into oil supply shock,oil aggregate demand shock,and oil-specific demand shock.We then explore the distinct effects of different kinds of oil price shocks from various sources.Based on the decomposed oil price shocks,we apply the connectedness approach and QQ regression to find time-varying co-movements and tail dependence between oil price shocks and G7 stock returns.There is no general correlation between the decomposed oil prices and stock returns in these countries.The effects of oil price shocks on stock returns across different stock market conditions appear to be heterogeneous.Oil supply shock appears to be a net transmitter of spillover effects for all G7 countries within the sample period.
文摘Growth rate of oil demand rose again in China in the first half of 2015. Demand for oil products went on differentiating, and the demand growth of most products sped up. Growth rate of oil production rose again, oil imports increased rapidly, and external dependence of crude oil and oil broke through 60% separately. The State adjusted the prices of gasoline and diesel timely and frequently, based on pricing mechanism. Price hike was higher than reduction. Oil market got weak, yet more stable. China increased the pace of reforms in marketization. In the second half, oil demand will increase continuously but with lower growth rate, oil production will rise more slowly, imports of crude oil and oil will keep on rising rapidly, gasoline and kerosene as well as diesel will witness a net import, and the market of gasoline, kerosene and diesel will be more stable.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant No.41402219)
文摘The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world's largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world's total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world's total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle- Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural-stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural- unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic- structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic-structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low-uplift belt and supra-salt central low-uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural-stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area.
文摘Through analysis of the current situation and newly-increased production capacity-of the oil refining industry of China, this Paper discusses both the continuous expansion trend and the serious excess of production capacity of the oil refining industry of China. Due to the entry of the Chinese economy into the new normal,the accelerated substitution of old energy by new energy and rigid restrictions composed of low carbon and environmental protection requirements, the oil demand of China will continue to increase overall, but the growth will obviously slow down. At the same time, the newly-increased production capacity in Shandong and coastal region will continuously expand, the supply and demand contradiction will intensify, and the structural excess production capacity of the oil refining industry of China will be prominent. It is suggested that the government should attach great importance to the production capacity of the oil refining industry at the macro level, and deeply carry forward the supply side structural reform, and that enterprises should speed up technical innovation,enhance regional and layout optimization, adapt to market changes and adjust product structure, control oil refining but increase chemical engineering, improve product quality and production efficiency, and constantly promote the international competitiveness of the Chinese petrochemical industry.
基金This work was supported by the Zhejiang A&F University Talent Startup Project(2017FR025)the Science and Technology Project in Jinyun(JYKJZDSJ-2018-1)and the Key R&D Program of Sichuan Province(2017GZ0391).
文摘An oil and gas pipeline monitoring platform uses internet of things(IoT)to ensure safe operation in remote and unattended areas,through automatic monitoring and systematic control on equipment such as the cut-off valves and cathodic protection systems.The continuity and stability of power supplies for various equipment of an oil and gas pipeline IoT monitoring platform is crucial.There is no single universal off-grid power supply method that is optimal for an oil and gas pipeline IoT monitoring platform in all different contexts.Therefore,it is necessary to select a suitable one according to the specific geographical location and meteorological conditions.This paper proposes an off-grid power supply system comprised of a reversible solid oxide fuel cell(RESOC),photovoltaic(PV)and battery.Minimum operating costs and the reliability of system operations under constraint conditions are the key determining objectives.A“PV+battery+RESOC”system operational optimization model is established.Based on the model,three types of off-grid power supply schemes are proposed,and three geographical locations with different meteorological conditions are selected as practical application scenarios.The Matlab Cplex solver is used to solve the different power supply modes of the three regions.And finally,the power supply scheme with the best reliability and economy under different geographical environments and meteorological conditions is obtained.
文摘Already Bangladesh has proven to be a natural gas giant in the region and to the energy producing community of the world.The Bangladesh sub-surface is according to the present knowledge mainly gas prone,with some potential for future oil discoveries. Within the 144549 km^2 territory,Bangladesh has