Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) or the Mean-Reverting Process (MRP), this paper takes the net present value (NPV) as an economic index and models the P...Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) or the Mean-Reverting Process (MRP), this paper takes the net present value (NPV) as an economic index and models the PSC in 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element (i.e. royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax). Then the NPVs are shown in probability density graphs to investigate the effect of different elements on contract economics. The results show that under oil price uncertainty the influence of profit oil and income tax on NPV are more significant than those of royalty and cost oil, while a tax holiday could improve the contractor's financial status remarkably. Results also show that MRP is more appropriate for cases with low future oil price volatility, and GBM is best for high future oil price volatility.展开更多
Based on about 20 years of accumulated experience and knowledge of oil and gas field development in overseas countries and regions for China's oil companies, the development features, ideas, models and plan design...Based on about 20 years of accumulated experience and knowledge of oil and gas field development in overseas countries and regions for China's oil companies, the development features, ideas, models and plan designing strategies of overseas oil and gas fields were comprehensively summarized. Overseas oil and gas field development has ten major features, such as non-identity project resource, diversity of contract type, complexity of cooperation model, and so on. The overseas oil and gas field development aims at the maximization of production and benefit during the limited contract period, so the overseas oil and gas field development models are established as giving priority to production by natural energy, building large-scale production capacity, putting into production as soon as possible, realizing high oil production recovery rate, and achieving rapid payback period of investment. According to the overseas contract mode, a set of strategies for overseas oil and gas field development plans were made. For tax systems contracts, the strategy is to adopt the mode of "first fat and then thinner, easier in the first and then harder", that is, early investment pace, production increase rate, development workload and production were decided by the change of tax stipulated in the contract. For production share contracts, the strategy is to give priority to high production with a few wells at a high production recovery rate to increase the cost-oil and shorten the period of payback. For technical service contracts, the strategy is that the optimal production target and workload of the project were determined by the return on investment, so as to ensure that the peak production and stable production periods meet the contract requirements.展开更多
基金financial support from Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Ministry of Education (09JZD0038)
文摘Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) or the Mean-Reverting Process (MRP), this paper takes the net present value (NPV) as an economic index and models the PSC in 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element (i.e. royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax). Then the NPVs are shown in probability density graphs to investigate the effect of different elements on contract economics. The results show that under oil price uncertainty the influence of profit oil and income tax on NPV are more significant than those of royalty and cost oil, while a tax holiday could improve the contractor's financial status remarkably. Results also show that MRP is more appropriate for cases with low future oil price volatility, and GBM is best for high future oil price volatility.
基金Supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project(2017ZX05030)
文摘Based on about 20 years of accumulated experience and knowledge of oil and gas field development in overseas countries and regions for China's oil companies, the development features, ideas, models and plan designing strategies of overseas oil and gas fields were comprehensively summarized. Overseas oil and gas field development has ten major features, such as non-identity project resource, diversity of contract type, complexity of cooperation model, and so on. The overseas oil and gas field development aims at the maximization of production and benefit during the limited contract period, so the overseas oil and gas field development models are established as giving priority to production by natural energy, building large-scale production capacity, putting into production as soon as possible, realizing high oil production recovery rate, and achieving rapid payback period of investment. According to the overseas contract mode, a set of strategies for overseas oil and gas field development plans were made. For tax systems contracts, the strategy is to adopt the mode of "first fat and then thinner, easier in the first and then harder", that is, early investment pace, production increase rate, development workload and production were decided by the change of tax stipulated in the contract. For production share contracts, the strategy is to give priority to high production with a few wells at a high production recovery rate to increase the cost-oil and shorten the period of payback. For technical service contracts, the strategy is that the optimal production target and workload of the project were determined by the return on investment, so as to ensure that the peak production and stable production periods meet the contract requirements.