International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to me...International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.展开更多
The Bangladeshi government signed a framework agreement with China for construction of a 220-km pipeline to carry oil from tankers in the Bay of Bengal to storage plants on Chinese mainland.Bangladesh’s Economic Rela...The Bangladeshi government signed a framework agreement with China for construction of a 220-km pipeline to carry oil from tankers in the Bay of Bengal to storage plants on Chinese mainland.Bangladesh’s Economic Relations Department(ERD)Secretary Kazi Shofiqul Azam and Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Ma Mingqiang signed the framework agreement in展开更多
The price of oil is probably the single most important economic variable in the global economy. The rapid drop in price of oil in 2014 set analysts and commentators busy, trying to predict its trajectory and implicati...The price of oil is probably the single most important economic variable in the global economy. The rapid drop in price of oil in 2014 set analysts and commentators busy, trying to predict its trajectory and implications. More than $150 billion of investments have been cancelled by oil companies in 2015 due to the low price of oil, with more spending cuts to follow in 2016. The oil price decline was supposed to catalyze a transfer of wealth from oil-producing countries to oil-consuming countries. It was estimated that a $10-a-barrel fall in the oil price transfers around 0.5 percent of world GDP from oil exporters to oil importers. The recent oil price collapse has far-reaching implications for capital projects in the oil and gas industry. The impact of a fall in oil price is analyzed for a large capital investment project, involving the construction and operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant. The breakeven price (BEP) of oil for the project is determined.展开更多
机场油库工程建设情况复杂,涉及专业多,工艺建造要求高,寿命周期长。采用先进管理技术对提高工程质量、节约成本、加快进度、保证安全等方面具有重要意义。建筑信息模型(Building Information Modeling,BIM)技术与传统计算机辅助设计(Co...机场油库工程建设情况复杂,涉及专业多,工艺建造要求高,寿命周期长。采用先进管理技术对提高工程质量、节约成本、加快进度、保证安全等方面具有重要意义。建筑信息模型(Building Information Modeling,BIM)技术与传统计算机辅助设计(Computer Aided Design,CAD)技术相比,具有可视化、协同性、高效性等优点,能够对工程从开始到结束进行准确控制。将BIM技术应用在机场油库工程的全寿命周期中,通过建立三维模型、碰撞检查、结构优化、造价计算、施工模拟等功能辅助进行工程管理,可提前发现和解决工程规划、勘察、设计和采购中的问题,对整个工程的施工重点和运营管理进行优化控制和重点监控,最终达到提高建设质量和运营管理水平等目的。若能解决人才不足、缺乏标准化、整合困难等问题,可以更好地将BIM技术推广到机场油库工程中。BIM技术将在机场油库工程的全寿命周期管理中发挥重要作用。展开更多
基金supported by the Young Fund of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics(No.QN-2018002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71774105)the Fund for Shanxi Key Subjects Construction(FSKSC)and Shanxi Repatriate Study Abroad Foundation(No.2016-3)
文摘International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.
文摘The Bangladeshi government signed a framework agreement with China for construction of a 220-km pipeline to carry oil from tankers in the Bay of Bengal to storage plants on Chinese mainland.Bangladesh’s Economic Relations Department(ERD)Secretary Kazi Shofiqul Azam and Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Ma Mingqiang signed the framework agreement in
文摘The price of oil is probably the single most important economic variable in the global economy. The rapid drop in price of oil in 2014 set analysts and commentators busy, trying to predict its trajectory and implications. More than $150 billion of investments have been cancelled by oil companies in 2015 due to the low price of oil, with more spending cuts to follow in 2016. The oil price decline was supposed to catalyze a transfer of wealth from oil-producing countries to oil-consuming countries. It was estimated that a $10-a-barrel fall in the oil price transfers around 0.5 percent of world GDP from oil exporters to oil importers. The recent oil price collapse has far-reaching implications for capital projects in the oil and gas industry. The impact of a fall in oil price is analyzed for a large capital investment project, involving the construction and operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant. The breakeven price (BEP) of oil for the project is determined.
文摘机场油库工程建设情况复杂,涉及专业多,工艺建造要求高,寿命周期长。采用先进管理技术对提高工程质量、节约成本、加快进度、保证安全等方面具有重要意义。建筑信息模型(Building Information Modeling,BIM)技术与传统计算机辅助设计(Computer Aided Design,CAD)技术相比,具有可视化、协同性、高效性等优点,能够对工程从开始到结束进行准确控制。将BIM技术应用在机场油库工程的全寿命周期中,通过建立三维模型、碰撞检查、结构优化、造价计算、施工模拟等功能辅助进行工程管理,可提前发现和解决工程规划、勘察、设计和采购中的问题,对整个工程的施工重点和运营管理进行优化控制和重点监控,最终达到提高建设质量和运营管理水平等目的。若能解决人才不足、缺乏标准化、整合困难等问题,可以更好地将BIM技术推广到机场油库工程中。BIM技术将在机场油库工程的全寿命周期管理中发挥重要作用。
