Based on the daily meteorological data of Bengbu City during 1981-2020,the changing characteristics of three elements needed for the calculation of the comfort index of human body(CIHB)were discussed,and daily CIHB wa...Based on the daily meteorological data of Bengbu City during 1981-2020,the changing characteristics of three elements needed for the calculation of the comfort index of human body(CIHB)were discussed,and daily CIHB was classified and discussed.The results show that from 1981 to 2020,annual average temperature tended to increase significantly.Annual average wind speed and relative humidity showed a decreasing trend before 2011 but an increasing trend after 2011.The duration of the four seasons in Bengbu City mainly rose in spring,reduced in winter,declined first and then increased in summer,and rose first and then decreased in autumn.As CIHB was at grades 1 and 9(the most uncomfortable),the three factors had different effects on them.For cold weather,the influence of relative humidity and wind speed on CIHB can not be ignored besides temperature.In hot weather,the influence of temperature was dominant,and the change of annual average temperature could well correspond to the change in the number of very hot days.In the context of climate warming,the number of cold days tended to decline generally,but it was larger in the years with fewer very cold days.Under the background of climate warming,there was no obvious change in the number of days of the overall comfort of human body.The number of hot days was closely related to the duration of summer,and the number of days of grade 8 rose significantly in the years with an increase in the duration of summer.展开更多
The Hooded Crane(Grus monacha)is listed as a Vulnerable species in the IUCN red list.Tidal wetland(tideland),the major habitat for wintering Hooded Cranes at East China’s Chongming Dongtan,has dramatically changed in...The Hooded Crane(Grus monacha)is listed as a Vulnerable species in the IUCN red list.Tidal wetland(tideland),the major habitat for wintering Hooded Cranes at East China’s Chongming Dongtan,has dramatically changed in the past two decades,but there is limited knowledge about the population and habitat changes of the Hooded Cranes.This study investigated the population size and distribution of wintering Hooded Cranes at Chongming Dongtan from 2000 to 2021.We used remote sensing images combined with a vegetation classification algorithm to analyse the distribution of saltmarsh vegetation.The quadrat method was used to investigate the density and weight of the underground corms of Sea Bulrush(Scirpus mariquter),the main food on tideland for the Hooded Cranes.From 2000 to 2021,the population number of wintering Hooded Cranes at Chongming Dongtan remained stable at approximately 100.In 2000,the area of Scirpus spp.and Common Reed(Phragmites australis)accounted for approximately half of the total saltmarsh area at Chongming Dongtan,respectively.The invasive Smooth Cordgrass(Spartina alterniflora)rapidly expanded on tideland in the 2000s while the Scirpus spp.was competed out and thus significantly reduced in area.After the implementation of an ecological project to control Smooth Cordgrass and to restore Scirpus spp.in the 2010s,the area of the Smooth Cordgrass decreased considerably while the area of Scirpus spp.increased.The corms of Sea Bulrush decreased on the southeastern tideland during the study period,which might be the cause of the northward movement of the foraging Hooded Cranes on tideland.We also found Hooded Cranes foraged crops in the nearby farmland in mid-winter,causing human-bird conflicts in the recent decade.Our results found that changes in habitat and food conditions on tideland impacted wintering Hooded Cranes.Foraging in farmland with human disturbance in the recent decade might be related to insufficient food on tideland.We suggest active intervention to accelerate the restoration of Sea Bulrush on tideland and reduce human disturbance in farmland to improve the habitat quality of the wintering Hooded Crane at Chongming Dongtan.展开更多
Global climate change affects many facets of avian ecology, such as shifts in breeding phenology and migration patterns. Migrating bird species respond to changes in climate by shifting their temporal patterns of spri...Global climate change affects many facets of avian ecology, such as shifts in breeding phenology and migration patterns. Migrating bird species respond to changes in climate by shifting their temporal patterns of spring migration. However, variation in species’ responses exists based on various life history traits, which exposes some species to an increased risk of phenological mismatch. This study examined the spring arrival dates of 115 migrating species over 127 years (1889-2015) using archival sources in West Virginia, USA, making this research unique in the length of study, the high number of species studied, and the historical crowd-sourced observations analyzed. Of the 115 taxa, 45 showed significant negative slopes of spring arrival dates (arriving earlier in the spring) plotted against the year. In contrast, only nine species showed positive slopes (arriving later in the spring), albeit non-significant. The average advance of spring arrival date for all species was 1.7 days per decade, and an advance of 2.6 days per decade in species that showed significance. Arrival dates were associated with increasing spring temperatures—for each 1˚C increase, the arrival date advanced by 0.81 days/decade. Several life history traits were linked to species that advanced their first arrival dates, including a shorter distance migrated to reach wintering grounds, increasing populations, and foraging habitat. Most avian species are advancing their spring arrival dates in response to climate change. However, the implications of earlier spring arrival are unclear. We draw attention to shifts in arrival dates and wintering ranges, leading to a possible increase in overwintering in the mid-latitudes of North America.展开更多
Multivariate analysis was adopted to analyze 30 morphometrical characteristics of 121 one-year-old juvenile silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis) bred during the 1950s ...Multivariate analysis was adopted to analyze 30 morphometrical characteristics of 121 one-year-old juvenile silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis) bred during the 1950s ("the former population") and 2008 ("the current population") and collected from the middle reach of the Yangtze River. The average discriminant accuracies of the former and current silver and bighead carp population were 94.2% and 98.0%, respectively. Discriminant analysis also revealed that significant differences in morphology occurred between the former and current populations of both carp in overall characteristics. One-way analysis of variance indicated that between former and current populations, silver carp showed highly significant differences (P0.01) in twelve of their characteristics and significant differences (P0.05) in eight of their characteristics, while bighead carp showed highly significant differences (P0.01) in eight of their characteristics and significant differences (P0.05) in eight of their characteristics. Six head morphology variables of the current silver and bighead carp were significantly or highly significantly larger than the former populations; fourteen characteristics of silver carp and ten characteristics of bighead carp of the current populations, mainly reflecting truck and tail morphology, were significantly or very significantly smaller than the former populations. Our results indicate that silver and bighead carp have developed a larger head and smaller truck and tail during the last 50 years. Due to such morphological changes, it seems apparent that the heads of these fish species need to be considered in regards to human diets, particularly in relation to economic and nutritious value.展开更多
Based on the meteorological data of representative meteorological stations in Hunan and Hubei from 1961 to 2008 years,the change character of double rice cold damage under the background of climate change were analyze...Based on the meteorological data of representative meteorological stations in Hunan and Hubei from 1961 to 2008 years,the change character of double rice cold damage under the background of climate change were analyzed adopting 30 years glide accumulation method.The analysis showed that the 30 years sliding cumulative days of mild low-temperature during spring sowing in Hunan and Hubei were decreased in the recent 50 years,as well as the 30 years sliding cumulative days of moderate low-temperature in central south Hubei,northern and western Hunan.However,there was an increase in southern Hunan,so was the 30 years sliding cumulative days of severe low-temperature.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of mild low-temperature in May reduced in Hunan and Hubei.Instead,that of moderate low-temperature in May in central south Hubei was on the rise,and it was opposite in northern and southern Hunan,but there was no obvious change in western Hunan.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of severe low-temperature showed a decreasing tendency in May in central south Hubei,northern and western Hunan,and southern Hunan showed a contrary tendency.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of mild cold dew wind in Hunan and Hubei were decreased,that of moderate cold dew wind in central south Hubei,northern and western Hunan had the same tendency,but there was a contrary tendency in southern Hunan.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of severe cold dew wind was decreased in central south Hubei and increased in western Hunan,without cold dew wind in northern and southern Hunan.展开更多
Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data during 1961-2007 in 81 meteorological stations of Heilongjiang Province,the climate change trend characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang P...Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data during 1961-2007 in 81 meteorological stations of Heilongjiang Province,the climate change trend characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang Province,Shuangyashan area,Baoqing County and Qixinghe Wetland were contrasted and analyzed by adopting the climatology statistics method. The results showed that the temperature change trend in Qixinghe Wetland was consistent with the temperature warming trends in Heilongjiang Province and Shuangyashan area. The annual average lowest temperature was the most obvious in the temperature warming trend,and the annual average temperature was the second. The annual average highest temperature was the third. Qixinghe Wetland had the important regulation effect on the local(Baoqing) climate. The annual precipitation in recent 50 years in Baoqing County,Qixinghe Wetland presented the decline trend and in Heilongjiang Province,Shuangyashan area presented the increase trend as a whole. In the trend which the temperature obviously rose,and the precipitation declined overall in Qixinghe Wetland,the protection of Qixinghe Wetland maybe faced with the restriction of water scarcity condition in the water resources aspect. One of important ways which solved with the water scarcity problem in Qixinghe Wetland maybe was strengthening the artificial effect weather work and using sufficiently the cloud water resources.展开更多
Particle size, the contents of carbonate and TOC were analyzed on lake sediments from a short core in Hongjiannao Lake to discuss the environmental changes during the past decades. On the basis of the records in lake ...Particle size, the contents of carbonate and TOC were analyzed on lake sediments from a short core in Hongjiannao Lake to discuss the environmental changes during the past decades. On the basis of the records in lake sediments and comparison with the meteorological data of Yulin region, the environmental changes in Hongjiannao Lake were approximately divided into two stages. In stage A (1957 -1996), the lake evolution and the environmental change were mainly influenced by natural factors. It contains three sub-stages: A1 (1957-1969), a period of lake expansion, A2 (1969-1990), a stable period with high lake levels, and A3 (1990 -1996), a period of gradual extraction of the lake. In stage B (1996 -2005), the lake area still keeps diminishing. During this period, organic matter increased rapidly due to the input of nutrient elements in the catchment. The carbonate content, however, decreased. As the precipitation was decreasing and the temperature was increasing, the decrease of carbonate content could not be explained by either temperature or precipitation change.展开更多
The temperature,precipitation and sunshine data of Jining City(including 11 counties and cities) from 1970 to 2009 were analyzed in this paper by regression analysis method.Results showed that in the each year and the...The temperature,precipitation and sunshine data of Jining City(including 11 counties and cities) from 1970 to 2009 were analyzed in this paper by regression analysis method.Results showed that in the each year and the four seasons in Jining over the past 40 years,average temperature,average minimum and maximum temperatures were increasing.Especially,the winter temperature had the largest rising range,and average minimum temperatures were rising faster than maximum average temperatures.The changes in rainfall could be divided into two obvious stages,the lowing trend in the early 30 years but rising trend in the last 10 years.The precipitation fell in Jining;sunshine was decreasing and reduced a lot in summer.展开更多
Energy storage and conservation are receiving increased attention due to rising global energy demands.Therefore,the development of energy storage materials is crucial.Thermal energy storage(TES)systems based on phase ...Energy storage and conservation are receiving increased attention due to rising global energy demands.Therefore,the development of energy storage materials is crucial.Thermal energy storage(TES)systems based on phase change materials(PCMs)have increased in prominence over the past two decades,not only because of their outstanding heat storage capacities but also their superior thermal energy regulation capability.However,issues such as leakage and low thermal conductivity limit their applicability in a variety of settings.Carbon-based materials such as graphene and its derivatives can be utilized to surmount these obstacles.This study examines the recent advancements in graphene-based phase change composites(PCCs),where graphene-based nanostructures such as graphene,graphene oxide(GO),functionalized graphene/GO,and graphene aerogel(GA)are incorporated into PCMs to substantially enhance their shape stability and thermal conductivity that could be translated to better storage capacity,durability,and temperature response,thus boosting their attractiveness for TES systems.In addition,the applications of these graphene-based PCCs in various TES disciplines,such as energy conservation in buildings,solar utilization,and battery thermal management,are discussed and summarized.展开更多
Based on the meteorological data in Fushun region from 1961 to 2008,the characteristics of climate change in Fushun City were concluded through statistical analysis.The results showed that the temperature increased,wh...Based on the meteorological data in Fushun region from 1961 to 2008,the characteristics of climate change in Fushun City were concluded through statistical analysis.The results showed that the temperature increased,while there was a decrease in precipitation and sunlight.Moreover,climate change had both positive and negative influences on agricultural production and crop growth,so we should take effective measures to make use of effective accumulated temperature.展开更多
[Objective] The effect of climate change on wetland ecological environment in Heihe River basin was researched.[Method] Based on meteorological data from six meteorological stations in Heihe River basin from 1959 to 2...[Objective] The effect of climate change on wetland ecological environment in Heihe River basin was researched.[Method] Based on meteorological data from six meteorological stations in Heihe River basin from 1959 to 2009,the effect of climate change on wetland ecological environment in Heihe River basin in recent 51 years was studied by means of statistical method.[Result] Temperature and precipitation in Heihe River basin showed obvious increasing trend in recent 51 years,especially in recent 20 years;climate change made Heihe River basin more and more dry,specially in mountain area;wetland ecological environment closely related to climate responded to climate change,such as groundwater level rise,wetland area decrease,agriculture planting structure change,meteorological disaster increase,destroyed biodiversity and so on.[Conclusion] Our study had important significance for the protection and development of wetland resources.展开更多
A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gra...A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation.展开更多
Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop...Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.展开更多
[Objective] The change law and meteorological factor of sunshine duration in Dalian in recent 60 years were studied.[Method] Based on the statistical data of sunshine duration from base station in Dalian City from 195...[Objective] The change law and meteorological factor of sunshine duration in Dalian in recent 60 years were studied.[Method] Based on the statistical data of sunshine duration from base station in Dalian City from 1951 to 2009,the annual,seasonal,and monthly variation of sunshine duration in recent 60 years were analyzed,as well as its relationship with meteorological factors,and sunshine duration was detected by means of climate mutation theory.[Result] Annual sunshine duration in Dalian in recent 60 years showed decrease trend on the whole,and its climatic variation rate was-3.31 h/a,with larger annual variation,namely the difference between maximum value(1978) and minimum value(2003) reached 681 h;there was obvious seasonal variation in sunshine duration,with the order of autumn>summer>winter>spring,and their climatic variation rate were-1.18,-1.15,-0.91 and-0.62 h/a;except for March,sunshine duration in each month went down,especially October,while there was slight increase in March;sunshine percentage had inverse correlation relationship with total cloudiness,relative humidity and heavy fog days;annual sunshine duration reduced abruptly around 1983.[Conclusion] Our study could provide scientific foundation for the development of agriculture and forestry in Dalian City.展开更多
The juvenile-to-adult phase change with first flowering as the indicator plays a crucial role in the lifecycle of fruit trees. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying phase change in fruit trees remain largely un...The juvenile-to-adult phase change with first flowering as the indicator plays a crucial role in the lifecycle of fruit trees. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying phase change in fruit trees remain largely unknown. Shikimic acid (ShA) pathway is a main metabolic pathway closely related to the synthesis of hormones and many important secondary metabolites participating in plant phase change. So,whether ShA regulates phase change in plants is worth clarifying. Here, the distinct morphological characteristics and the underlying mechanisms of phase change in jujube (Ziziphus jujuba Mill.), an important fruit tree native to China with nutritious fruit and outstanding tolerance abiotic stresses, were clarified. A combined transcriptome and metabolome analysis found that ShA is positively involved in jujube(Yuhong’×Xing 16’) phase change. The genes in the upstream of ShA synthesis pathway (ZjDAHPS, ZjDHQS and ZjSDH), the contents of ShA and the downstream secondary metabolites like phenols were significantly upregulated in the phase change period. Further, the treatment of spraying exogenous ShA verified that ShA at a very low concentration (60 mg·L^(-1)) can substantially speed up the phase change and flowering of jujube and other tested plants including Arabidopsis, tomato and wheat. The exogenous ShA (60 mg·L^(-1)) treatment in jujube seedlings could increase the accumulation of endogenous ShA, enhance leaf photosynthesis and the synthesis of phenols especially flavonoids and phenolic acids, and promote the expression of genes (ZjCOs, ZjNFYs and ZjPHYs) involved in flowering pathway. Basing on above results, we put forward a propose for the underlying mechanism of ShA regulating phase change, and a hypothesis that ShA could be considered a phytohormone-like substance because it is endogenous, ubiquitous, movable and highly efficient at very low concentrations. This study highlights the critical role of ShA in plant phase change and its phytohormone-like properties.展开更多
Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surr...Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,RegCM4.The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events.RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of overestimation.For the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part.All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the TP.Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP.Notably,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP.Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the TP.The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.展开更多
The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing ...The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.展开更多
The severe dependence of traditional phase change materials(PCMs)on the temperature-response and lattice deficiencies in versatility cannot satisfy demand for using such materials in complex application scenarios.Here...The severe dependence of traditional phase change materials(PCMs)on the temperature-response and lattice deficiencies in versatility cannot satisfy demand for using such materials in complex application scenarios.Here,we introduced metal ions to induce the self-assembly of MXene nanosheets and achieve their ordered arrangement by combining suction filtration and rapid freezing.Subsequently,a series of MXene/K^(+)/paraffin wax(PW)phase change composites(PCCs)were obtained via vacuum impregnation in molten PW.The prepared MXene-based PCCs showed versatile applications from macroscale technologies,successfully transforming solar,electric,and magnetic energy into thermal energy stored as latent heat in the PCCs.Moreover,due to the absence of binder in the MXene-based aerogel,MK3@PW exhibits a prime solar-thermal conversion efficiency(98.4%).Notably,MK3@PW can further convert the collected heat energy into electric energy through thermoelectric equipment and realize favorable solar-thermal-electric conversion(producing 206 mV of voltage with light radiation intensity of 200 mw cm^(−2)).An excellent Joule heat performance(reaching 105℃with an input voltage of 2.5 V)and responsive magnetic-thermal conversion behavior(a charging time of 11.8 s can achieve a thermal insulation effect of 285 s)for contactless thermotherapy were also demonstrated by the MK3@PW.Specifically,as a result of the ordered arrangement of MXene nanosheet self-assembly induced by potassium ions,MK3@PW PCC exhibits a higher electromagnetic shielding efficiency value(57.7 dB)than pure MXene aerogel/PW PCC(29.8 dB)with the same MXene mass.This work presents an opportunity for the multi-scene response and practical application of PCMs that satisfy demand of next-generation multifunctional PCCs.展开更多
BACKGROUND The comprehension and utilization of timing theory and behavior change can offer a more extensive and individualized provision of support and treatment alternatives for primipara.This has the potential to e...BACKGROUND The comprehension and utilization of timing theory and behavior change can offer a more extensive and individualized provision of support and treatment alternatives for primipara.This has the potential to enhance the psychological well-being and overall quality of life for primipara,while also furnishing healthcare providers with efficacious interventions to tackle the psychological and physiological obstacles encountered during the stages of pregnancy and postpartum.AIM To explore the effect of timing theory combined with behavior change on selfefficacy,negative emotions and quality of life in patients with primipara.METHODS A total of 80 primipara cases were selected and admitted to our hospital between August 2020 and May 2022.These cases were divided into two groups,namely the observation group and the control group,with 40 cases in each group.The nursing interventions differed between the two groups,with the control group receiving routine nursing and the observation group receiving integrated nursing based on the timing theory and behavior change.The study aimed to compare the pre-and post-nursing scores of Chinese Perceived Stress Scale(CPSS),Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale(EPDS),Self-rating Anxiety Scale(SAS),breast milk knowledge,self-efficacy,and SF-36 quality of life in both groups.RESULTS After nursing,the CPSS,EPDS,and SAS scores of the two groups was significantly lower than that before nursing,and the CPSS,EPDS,and SAS scores of the observation group was significantly lower than that of the control group(P=0.002,P=0.011,and P=0.001 respectively).After nursing,the breastfeeding knowledge mastery,selfefficacy,and SF-36 quality of life scores was significantly higher than that before nursing,and the breastfeeding knowledge mastery(P=0.013),self-efficacy(P=0.008),and SF-36 quality of life(P=0.011)scores of the observation group was significantly higher than that of the control group.CONCLUSION The integration of timing theory and behavior change integrated theory has been found to be an effective approach in alleviating negative mood and stress experienced by primipara individuals,while also enhancing their selfefficacy and overall quality of life.This study focuses on the key concepts of timing theory,behavior change,primipara individuals,negative mood,and quality of life.展开更多
The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of th...The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
文摘Based on the daily meteorological data of Bengbu City during 1981-2020,the changing characteristics of three elements needed for the calculation of the comfort index of human body(CIHB)were discussed,and daily CIHB was classified and discussed.The results show that from 1981 to 2020,annual average temperature tended to increase significantly.Annual average wind speed and relative humidity showed a decreasing trend before 2011 but an increasing trend after 2011.The duration of the four seasons in Bengbu City mainly rose in spring,reduced in winter,declined first and then increased in summer,and rose first and then decreased in autumn.As CIHB was at grades 1 and 9(the most uncomfortable),the three factors had different effects on them.For cold weather,the influence of relative humidity and wind speed on CIHB can not be ignored besides temperature.In hot weather,the influence of temperature was dominant,and the change of annual average temperature could well correspond to the change in the number of very hot days.In the context of climate warming,the number of cold days tended to decline generally,but it was larger in the years with fewer very cold days.Under the background of climate warming,there was no obvious change in the number of days of the overall comfort of human body.The number of hot days was closely related to the duration of summer,and the number of days of grade 8 rose significantly in the years with an increase in the duration of summer.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFF1301004)the Science and Technology Department of Shanghai(21DZ1201902)the Shanghai Landscaping and City Appearance Administrative Bureau(G201610)。
文摘The Hooded Crane(Grus monacha)is listed as a Vulnerable species in the IUCN red list.Tidal wetland(tideland),the major habitat for wintering Hooded Cranes at East China’s Chongming Dongtan,has dramatically changed in the past two decades,but there is limited knowledge about the population and habitat changes of the Hooded Cranes.This study investigated the population size and distribution of wintering Hooded Cranes at Chongming Dongtan from 2000 to 2021.We used remote sensing images combined with a vegetation classification algorithm to analyse the distribution of saltmarsh vegetation.The quadrat method was used to investigate the density and weight of the underground corms of Sea Bulrush(Scirpus mariquter),the main food on tideland for the Hooded Cranes.From 2000 to 2021,the population number of wintering Hooded Cranes at Chongming Dongtan remained stable at approximately 100.In 2000,the area of Scirpus spp.and Common Reed(Phragmites australis)accounted for approximately half of the total saltmarsh area at Chongming Dongtan,respectively.The invasive Smooth Cordgrass(Spartina alterniflora)rapidly expanded on tideland in the 2000s while the Scirpus spp.was competed out and thus significantly reduced in area.After the implementation of an ecological project to control Smooth Cordgrass and to restore Scirpus spp.in the 2010s,the area of the Smooth Cordgrass decreased considerably while the area of Scirpus spp.increased.The corms of Sea Bulrush decreased on the southeastern tideland during the study period,which might be the cause of the northward movement of the foraging Hooded Cranes on tideland.We also found Hooded Cranes foraged crops in the nearby farmland in mid-winter,causing human-bird conflicts in the recent decade.Our results found that changes in habitat and food conditions on tideland impacted wintering Hooded Cranes.Foraging in farmland with human disturbance in the recent decade might be related to insufficient food on tideland.We suggest active intervention to accelerate the restoration of Sea Bulrush on tideland and reduce human disturbance in farmland to improve the habitat quality of the wintering Hooded Crane at Chongming Dongtan.
文摘Global climate change affects many facets of avian ecology, such as shifts in breeding phenology and migration patterns. Migrating bird species respond to changes in climate by shifting their temporal patterns of spring migration. However, variation in species’ responses exists based on various life history traits, which exposes some species to an increased risk of phenological mismatch. This study examined the spring arrival dates of 115 migrating species over 127 years (1889-2015) using archival sources in West Virginia, USA, making this research unique in the length of study, the high number of species studied, and the historical crowd-sourced observations analyzed. Of the 115 taxa, 45 showed significant negative slopes of spring arrival dates (arriving earlier in the spring) plotted against the year. In contrast, only nine species showed positive slopes (arriving later in the spring), albeit non-significant. The average advance of spring arrival date for all species was 1.7 days per decade, and an advance of 2.6 days per decade in species that showed significance. Arrival dates were associated with increasing spring temperatures—for each 1˚C increase, the arrival date advanced by 0.81 days/decade. Several life history traits were linked to species that advanced their first arrival dates, including a shorter distance migrated to reach wintering grounds, increasing populations, and foraging habitat. Most avian species are advancing their spring arrival dates in response to climate change. However, the implications of earlier spring arrival are unclear. We draw attention to shifts in arrival dates and wintering ranges, leading to a possible increase in overwintering in the mid-latitudes of North America.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (30630051)Aquaculture E-Institute of Shanghai Universities(03E009)Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project(S30701)
文摘Multivariate analysis was adopted to analyze 30 morphometrical characteristics of 121 one-year-old juvenile silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (Aristichthys nobilis) bred during the 1950s ("the former population") and 2008 ("the current population") and collected from the middle reach of the Yangtze River. The average discriminant accuracies of the former and current silver and bighead carp population were 94.2% and 98.0%, respectively. Discriminant analysis also revealed that significant differences in morphology occurred between the former and current populations of both carp in overall characteristics. One-way analysis of variance indicated that between former and current populations, silver carp showed highly significant differences (P0.01) in twelve of their characteristics and significant differences (P0.05) in eight of their characteristics, while bighead carp showed highly significant differences (P0.01) in eight of their characteristics and significant differences (P0.05) in eight of their characteristics. Six head morphology variables of the current silver and bighead carp were significantly or highly significantly larger than the former populations; fourteen characteristics of silver carp and ten characteristics of bighead carp of the current populations, mainly reflecting truck and tail morphology, were significantly or very significantly smaller than the former populations. Our results indicate that silver and bighead carp have developed a larger head and smaller truck and tail during the last 50 years. Due to such morphological changes, it seems apparent that the heads of these fish species need to be considered in regards to human diets, particularly in relation to economic and nutritious value.
基金Supported by Climate Change Special Fund of China Meteorological Administration (CCSF-09-14)Major Scientific and Technological Special Project of Hunan Province (2008FJ1006)+1 种基金Scientific Research Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (GY-HY200906021)The Key Grant Project of Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province,"The Study on Meteorological Service Integrated Platform in Modern Agriculture"
文摘Based on the meteorological data of representative meteorological stations in Hunan and Hubei from 1961 to 2008 years,the change character of double rice cold damage under the background of climate change were analyzed adopting 30 years glide accumulation method.The analysis showed that the 30 years sliding cumulative days of mild low-temperature during spring sowing in Hunan and Hubei were decreased in the recent 50 years,as well as the 30 years sliding cumulative days of moderate low-temperature in central south Hubei,northern and western Hunan.However,there was an increase in southern Hunan,so was the 30 years sliding cumulative days of severe low-temperature.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of mild low-temperature in May reduced in Hunan and Hubei.Instead,that of moderate low-temperature in May in central south Hubei was on the rise,and it was opposite in northern and southern Hunan,but there was no obvious change in western Hunan.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of severe low-temperature showed a decreasing tendency in May in central south Hubei,northern and western Hunan,and southern Hunan showed a contrary tendency.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of mild cold dew wind in Hunan and Hubei were decreased,that of moderate cold dew wind in central south Hubei,northern and western Hunan had the same tendency,but there was a contrary tendency in southern Hunan.The 30 years sliding cumulative days of severe cold dew wind was decreased in central south Hubei and increased in western Hunan,without cold dew wind in northern and southern Hunan.
基金Supported by "The Technological Research of Climate Productivity Effect of Climate Change in Recent 50 Years on The Wetland Ecological System" Project of Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau
文摘Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data during 1961-2007 in 81 meteorological stations of Heilongjiang Province,the climate change trend characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Heilongjiang Province,Shuangyashan area,Baoqing County and Qixinghe Wetland were contrasted and analyzed by adopting the climatology statistics method. The results showed that the temperature change trend in Qixinghe Wetland was consistent with the temperature warming trends in Heilongjiang Province and Shuangyashan area. The annual average lowest temperature was the most obvious in the temperature warming trend,and the annual average temperature was the second. The annual average highest temperature was the third. Qixinghe Wetland had the important regulation effect on the local(Baoqing) climate. The annual precipitation in recent 50 years in Baoqing County,Qixinghe Wetland presented the decline trend and in Heilongjiang Province,Shuangyashan area presented the increase trend as a whole. In the trend which the temperature obviously rose,and the precipitation declined overall in Qixinghe Wetland,the protection of Qixinghe Wetland maybe faced with the restriction of water scarcity condition in the water resources aspect. One of important ways which solved with the water scarcity problem in Qixinghe Wetland maybe was strengthening the artificial effect weather work and using sufficiently the cloud water resources.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation(40871093)~~
文摘Particle size, the contents of carbonate and TOC were analyzed on lake sediments from a short core in Hongjiannao Lake to discuss the environmental changes during the past decades. On the basis of the records in lake sediments and comparison with the meteorological data of Yulin region, the environmental changes in Hongjiannao Lake were approximately divided into two stages. In stage A (1957 -1996), the lake evolution and the environmental change were mainly influenced by natural factors. It contains three sub-stages: A1 (1957-1969), a period of lake expansion, A2 (1969-1990), a stable period with high lake levels, and A3 (1990 -1996), a period of gradual extraction of the lake. In stage B (1996 -2005), the lake area still keeps diminishing. During this period, organic matter increased rapidly due to the input of nutrient elements in the catchment. The carbonate content, however, decreased. As the precipitation was decreasing and the temperature was increasing, the decrease of carbonate content could not be explained by either temperature or precipitation change.
文摘The temperature,precipitation and sunshine data of Jining City(including 11 counties and cities) from 1970 to 2009 were analyzed in this paper by regression analysis method.Results showed that in the each year and the four seasons in Jining over the past 40 years,average temperature,average minimum and maximum temperatures were increasing.Especially,the winter temperature had the largest rising range,and average minimum temperatures were rising faster than maximum average temperatures.The changes in rainfall could be divided into two obvious stages,the lowing trend in the early 30 years but rising trend in the last 10 years.The precipitation fell in Jining;sunshine was decreasing and reduced a lot in summer.
基金the support from Grant No.2022VBA0023 funded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative.
文摘Energy storage and conservation are receiving increased attention due to rising global energy demands.Therefore,the development of energy storage materials is crucial.Thermal energy storage(TES)systems based on phase change materials(PCMs)have increased in prominence over the past two decades,not only because of their outstanding heat storage capacities but also their superior thermal energy regulation capability.However,issues such as leakage and low thermal conductivity limit their applicability in a variety of settings.Carbon-based materials such as graphene and its derivatives can be utilized to surmount these obstacles.This study examines the recent advancements in graphene-based phase change composites(PCCs),where graphene-based nanostructures such as graphene,graphene oxide(GO),functionalized graphene/GO,and graphene aerogel(GA)are incorporated into PCMs to substantially enhance their shape stability and thermal conductivity that could be translated to better storage capacity,durability,and temperature response,thus boosting their attractiveness for TES systems.In addition,the applications of these graphene-based PCCs in various TES disciplines,such as energy conservation in buildings,solar utilization,and battery thermal management,are discussed and summarized.
基金Supported by Government of Fushun City(20071209)
文摘Based on the meteorological data in Fushun region from 1961 to 2008,the characteristics of climate change in Fushun City were concluded through statistical analysis.The results showed that the temperature increased,while there was a decrease in precipitation and sunlight.Moreover,climate change had both positive and negative influences on agricultural production and crop growth,so we should take effective measures to make use of effective accumulated temperature.
文摘[Objective] The effect of climate change on wetland ecological environment in Heihe River basin was researched.[Method] Based on meteorological data from six meteorological stations in Heihe River basin from 1959 to 2009,the effect of climate change on wetland ecological environment in Heihe River basin in recent 51 years was studied by means of statistical method.[Result] Temperature and precipitation in Heihe River basin showed obvious increasing trend in recent 51 years,especially in recent 20 years;climate change made Heihe River basin more and more dry,specially in mountain area;wetland ecological environment closely related to climate responded to climate change,such as groundwater level rise,wetland area decrease,agriculture planting structure change,meteorological disaster increase,destroyed biodiversity and so on.[Conclusion] Our study had important significance for the protection and development of wetland resources.
基金Supported by National Scientific and Technological Supporting Project(2006BAD20B05)~~
文摘A comprehensive analysis on the change of the total grain production and the temporal and spatial change of three main crops production(including wheat,maize and rice),as well as the transfer trace of the center gravity of grain production in China were analyzed to reveal the overall developing trend of the grain production,explore the reasons and finally propose the corresponding suggestions and strategies to cope with the situation.
基金supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science through the NERC National Capability International Programmes Award (NE/ X006263/1)the Global Challenges Research Fund, via Atmospheric hazard in developing Countries: Risk assessment and Early Warning (ACREW) (NE/R000034/1)the Natural Environmental Research Council and the Department for Foreign International Development through the Sat WIN-ALERT project (NE/ R014116/1)。
文摘Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (40971294)Science and Technology Planning Project of Dalian Science and Technology Bureau(2009E11SF230)~~
文摘[Objective] The change law and meteorological factor of sunshine duration in Dalian in recent 60 years were studied.[Method] Based on the statistical data of sunshine duration from base station in Dalian City from 1951 to 2009,the annual,seasonal,and monthly variation of sunshine duration in recent 60 years were analyzed,as well as its relationship with meteorological factors,and sunshine duration was detected by means of climate mutation theory.[Result] Annual sunshine duration in Dalian in recent 60 years showed decrease trend on the whole,and its climatic variation rate was-3.31 h/a,with larger annual variation,namely the difference between maximum value(1978) and minimum value(2003) reached 681 h;there was obvious seasonal variation in sunshine duration,with the order of autumn>summer>winter>spring,and their climatic variation rate were-1.18,-1.15,-0.91 and-0.62 h/a;except for March,sunshine duration in each month went down,especially October,while there was slight increase in March;sunshine percentage had inverse correlation relationship with total cloudiness,relative humidity and heavy fog days;annual sunshine duration reduced abruptly around 1983.[Conclusion] Our study could provide scientific foundation for the development of agriculture and forestry in Dalian City.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.31772285)the National Key R&D Program Project Funding (Grant No.2018YFD1000607)Foundation for 100 Innovative Talents of Hebei Province(Grant No.SLRC2019031)。
文摘The juvenile-to-adult phase change with first flowering as the indicator plays a crucial role in the lifecycle of fruit trees. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying phase change in fruit trees remain largely unknown. Shikimic acid (ShA) pathway is a main metabolic pathway closely related to the synthesis of hormones and many important secondary metabolites participating in plant phase change. So,whether ShA regulates phase change in plants is worth clarifying. Here, the distinct morphological characteristics and the underlying mechanisms of phase change in jujube (Ziziphus jujuba Mill.), an important fruit tree native to China with nutritious fruit and outstanding tolerance abiotic stresses, were clarified. A combined transcriptome and metabolome analysis found that ShA is positively involved in jujube(Yuhong’×Xing 16’) phase change. The genes in the upstream of ShA synthesis pathway (ZjDAHPS, ZjDHQS and ZjSDH), the contents of ShA and the downstream secondary metabolites like phenols were significantly upregulated in the phase change period. Further, the treatment of spraying exogenous ShA verified that ShA at a very low concentration (60 mg·L^(-1)) can substantially speed up the phase change and flowering of jujube and other tested plants including Arabidopsis, tomato and wheat. The exogenous ShA (60 mg·L^(-1)) treatment in jujube seedlings could increase the accumulation of endogenous ShA, enhance leaf photosynthesis and the synthesis of phenols especially flavonoids and phenolic acids, and promote the expression of genes (ZjCOs, ZjNFYs and ZjPHYs) involved in flowering pathway. Basing on above results, we put forward a propose for the underlying mechanism of ShA regulating phase change, and a hypothesis that ShA could be considered a phytohormone-like substance because it is endogenous, ubiquitous, movable and highly efficient at very low concentrations. This study highlights the critical role of ShA in plant phase change and its phytohormone-like properties.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA2006040102]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42175037].
文摘Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural ecosystems.In this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,RegCM4.The model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways.Four modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall events.RegCM4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of overestimation.For the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern part.All the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the TP.Both S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the TP.Notably,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central TP.Significant increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the TP.The projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.42041006,41790443 and 41927806).
文摘The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 52203038,52173036 and 52073107]the National Key Technology R&D Program of China[grant number 2022YFC3901904,2022YFC3901903,and 2020YFB1709301]the Central University Basic Research Fund of China[grant number 2021XXJS035].
文摘The severe dependence of traditional phase change materials(PCMs)on the temperature-response and lattice deficiencies in versatility cannot satisfy demand for using such materials in complex application scenarios.Here,we introduced metal ions to induce the self-assembly of MXene nanosheets and achieve their ordered arrangement by combining suction filtration and rapid freezing.Subsequently,a series of MXene/K^(+)/paraffin wax(PW)phase change composites(PCCs)were obtained via vacuum impregnation in molten PW.The prepared MXene-based PCCs showed versatile applications from macroscale technologies,successfully transforming solar,electric,and magnetic energy into thermal energy stored as latent heat in the PCCs.Moreover,due to the absence of binder in the MXene-based aerogel,MK3@PW exhibits a prime solar-thermal conversion efficiency(98.4%).Notably,MK3@PW can further convert the collected heat energy into electric energy through thermoelectric equipment and realize favorable solar-thermal-electric conversion(producing 206 mV of voltage with light radiation intensity of 200 mw cm^(−2)).An excellent Joule heat performance(reaching 105℃with an input voltage of 2.5 V)and responsive magnetic-thermal conversion behavior(a charging time of 11.8 s can achieve a thermal insulation effect of 285 s)for contactless thermotherapy were also demonstrated by the MK3@PW.Specifically,as a result of the ordered arrangement of MXene nanosheet self-assembly induced by potassium ions,MK3@PW PCC exhibits a higher electromagnetic shielding efficiency value(57.7 dB)than pure MXene aerogel/PW PCC(29.8 dB)with the same MXene mass.This work presents an opportunity for the multi-scene response and practical application of PCMs that satisfy demand of next-generation multifunctional PCCs.
文摘BACKGROUND The comprehension and utilization of timing theory and behavior change can offer a more extensive and individualized provision of support and treatment alternatives for primipara.This has the potential to enhance the psychological well-being and overall quality of life for primipara,while also furnishing healthcare providers with efficacious interventions to tackle the psychological and physiological obstacles encountered during the stages of pregnancy and postpartum.AIM To explore the effect of timing theory combined with behavior change on selfefficacy,negative emotions and quality of life in patients with primipara.METHODS A total of 80 primipara cases were selected and admitted to our hospital between August 2020 and May 2022.These cases were divided into two groups,namely the observation group and the control group,with 40 cases in each group.The nursing interventions differed between the two groups,with the control group receiving routine nursing and the observation group receiving integrated nursing based on the timing theory and behavior change.The study aimed to compare the pre-and post-nursing scores of Chinese Perceived Stress Scale(CPSS),Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale(EPDS),Self-rating Anxiety Scale(SAS),breast milk knowledge,self-efficacy,and SF-36 quality of life in both groups.RESULTS After nursing,the CPSS,EPDS,and SAS scores of the two groups was significantly lower than that before nursing,and the CPSS,EPDS,and SAS scores of the observation group was significantly lower than that of the control group(P=0.002,P=0.011,and P=0.001 respectively).After nursing,the breastfeeding knowledge mastery,selfefficacy,and SF-36 quality of life scores was significantly higher than that before nursing,and the breastfeeding knowledge mastery(P=0.013),self-efficacy(P=0.008),and SF-36 quality of life(P=0.011)scores of the observation group was significantly higher than that of the control group.CONCLUSION The integration of timing theory and behavior change integrated theory has been found to be an effective approach in alleviating negative mood and stress experienced by primipara individuals,while also enhancing their selfefficacy and overall quality of life.This study focuses on the key concepts of timing theory,behavior change,primipara individuals,negative mood,and quality of life.
基金supported by the Second Comprehensive Scientific Research Survey on the Tibetan Plateau[grant number 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42375071 and 42230610].
文摘The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.