Research on the Application of the Radiative Transfer Model Based on Deep Neural Network in One-dimensional Variational Algorithm

As a typical physical retrieval algorithm for retrieving atmospheric parameters,one-dimensional variational(1 DVAR)algorithm is widely used in various climate and meteorological communities and enjoys an important position in the field of microwave remote sensing.Among algorithm parameters affecting the performance of the 1 DVAR algorithm,the accuracy of the microwave radiative transfer model for calculating the simulated brightness temperature is the fundamental constraint on the retrieval accuracies of the 1 DVAR algorithm for retrieving atmospheric parameters.In this study,a deep neural network(DNN)is used to describe the nonlinear relationship between atmospheric parameters and satellite-based microwave radiometer observations,and a DNN-based radiative transfer model is developed and applied to the 1 DVAR algorithm to carry out retrieval experiments of the atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles.The retrieval results of the temperature and humidity profiles from the Microwave Humidity and Temperature Sounder(MWHTS)onboard the Feng-Yun-3(FY-3)satellite show that the DNN-based radiative transfer model can obtain higher accuracy for simulating MWHTS observations than that of the operational radiative transfer model RTTOV,and also enables the 1 DVAR algorithm to obtain higher retrieval accuracies of the temperature and humidity profiles.In this study,the DNN-based radiative transfer model applied to the 1 DVAR algorithm can fundamentally improve the retrieval accuracies of atmospheric parameters,which may provide important reference for various applied studies in atmospheric sciences.

Artificial neural network modeling of water quality of the Yangtze River system:a case study in reaches crossing the city of Chongqing

An effective approach for describing complicated water quality processes is very important for river water quality management. We built two artificial neural network(ANN) models,a feed-forward back-propagation(BP) model and a radial basis function(RBF) model,to simulate the water quality of the Yangtze and Jialing Rivers in reaches crossing the city of Chongqing,P. R. China. Our models used the historical monitoring data of biological oxygen demand,dissolved oxygen,ammonia,oil and volatile phenolic compounds. Comparison with the one-dimensional traditional water quality model suggest that both BP and RBF models are superior; their higher accuracy and better goodness-of-fit indicate that the ANN calculation of water quality agrees better with measurement. It is demonstrated that ANN modeling can be a tool for estimating the water quality of the Yangtze River. Of the two ANN models,the RBF model calculates with a smaller mean error,but a larger root mean square error. More effort to identify out the causes of these differences would help optimize the structures of neural network water-quality models.

Water level updating model for flow calculation of river networks

Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up based on a three-step method at key nodes, and model correction values were collected from gauge stations. To improve the accuracy of water level and discharge forecasts for the entire network, the discrete coefficients of the Saint-Venant equations for river sections were regarded as the media carrying the correction values from observation locations to other cross-sections of the river network system. To examine the applicability, the updating model was applied to flow calculation of an ideal river network and the Chengtong section of the Yangtze River. Comparison of the forecast results with the observed data demonstrates that this updating model can improve the forecast accuracy in both ideal and real river networks.

Application of River Network Hydrodynamic Model in Determining Water Distribution Scale of Haishu Plain

The water distribution network is an important part of the plain water environment improvement system. To make efficient use of the regional water diversion source, scientifically distribute the water diversion flow and improve the water environment carrying capacity of Haishu Plain, the river network hydrodynamic model is used in this paper to simulate the water intake location, reasonable water quantity and influence range of water transfer in Haishu Plain. The simulation results have high accuracy, which can provide a scientific basis for the scale, water transfer mechanism and project layout of water transfer construction in Haishu Plain and show a strong reference value for the study of water diversion and distribution scheme of coastal plain river network.

A Method of Catchments Health Assessment under Value-pressure Model and Its Application in Urbanized River Network Area:A Case Study in Shanghai,China

Catchments health assessment is fundamental to effective catchments management. Generally, an as-sessment method should be selected to reflect both the purpose of assessment and local characteristics. A trial in Shanghai was conducted to test the method for catchments health assessment in urbanized river network area. Seven indicators that described four dimensions of river, river network, land use and function, and local feature were used to assess catchments values; while possible change rate of urbanization and industrialization in the next 3 years were chosen for catchments pressure assessment in the value-pressure model. Factors related to catchments classi-fication, indicators measurement and protection priority have been considered in the development strategies for catchments health management. The results showed that value-pressure assessment was applicable in urbanized catchments health management, particularly when both human and catchments had multiple demands. As a result of over 30-year rapid urbanization, more than 70% of Shanghai river network area was still in a healthy condition with high catchments values, among them, 39.3% was under high pressure. Poor water quality, simplified river system and weakened local feature of river pattern had largely affected catchments health in Shanghai. Lack of long-term monitoring data would seriously restrict the development and validity of catchments health assessment.

Rain-Flow Modeling Using a Multi-Layer Artificial Neural Network on the Watershed of the Cavally River(Cote d’Ivoire)

Water resources management is nowadays a significant stake for the world. However, missing or bad quality of the hydro-climatic historical data available of the studied area makes sometimes hydrological studies difficult. Generally, conceptual rain-flow models are designed to bring an appropriate answer with the correction of gaps and prediction of the flows. Historical hydro-climatic data of the Ity station, located on Cavally River, contain gaps which must be bridged. This study aims to establish a rainfall-runoff model through artificial neural networks for filling the gaps into the flow data series of the hydrometric station of Ity on the watershed of Cavally River. A multi-layer perceptron of feed forwards with two entries (monthly average rain and evapotranspiration) and an exit (flows) was established with flow evapotranspiration data. Comparison of the criteria of performance of the various architectures of the neural network model showed that architecture 2-3-1 gives best results. This architecture provides Nash coefficients of 75.79% and correlation linear coefficient of 95.64% for the calibration and Nash coefficients of 73.32% and correlation linear coefficient of 98.33% for the validation. The correlations between simulated flows and observed flows are strong. The correlation coefficients are 83.89% and 83.08% respectively for the calibration and validation.

Joint optimization scheduling for water conservancy projects incomplex river networks

In this study, we simulated water flow in a water conservancy project consisting of various hydraulic structures, such as sluices, pumping stations, hydropower stations, ship locks, and culverts, and developed a multi-period and multi-variable joint optimization scheduling model for flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In this model, the number of sluice holes, pump units, and hydropower station units to be opened were used as decision variables, and different optimization objectives and constraints were considered. This model was solved with improved genetic algorithms and verified using the Huaian Water Conservancy Project as an example. The results show that the use of the joint optimization scheduling led to a 10% increase in the power generation capacity and a 15% reduction in the total energy consumption. The change in the water level was reduced by 0.25 m upstream of the Yundong Sluice, and by 50% downstream of pumping stations No. 1, No. 2, and No. 4. It is clear that the joint optimization scheduling proposed in this study can effectively improve power generation capacity of the project, minimize operating costs and energy consumption, and enable more stable operation of various hydraulic structures. The results may provide references for the management of water conservancy projects in complex river networks.

A Comparison of ANN and HSPF Models for Runoff Simulation in Balkhichai River Watershed, Iran

In this study, the capability of two different types of models including Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) as a process-based model and ANN as a data-driven model in simulating runoff was evaluated. The considered area is the Balkhichai River watershed in northwest of Iran. HSPF is a semi-distributed deterministic, continuous and physically-based model that can simulate the hydrologic cycle, associated water quality and quantity and process on pervious and impervious land surfaces and streams. Artificial neural network (ANN) is probably the most successful learning machine technique with flexible mathematical structure which is capable of identifying complex non-linear relationships between input and output data without attempting to reach the understanding of the nature of the phenomena. Statistical approach depending on cross-, auto- and partial-autocorrelation of the observed data is used as a good alternative to the trial and error method in identifying model inputs. The performances of ANN and HSPF models in calibration and validation stages are compared with the observed runoff values in order to identify the best fit forecasting model based upon a number of selected performance criteria. Results of runoff simulation indicated that the simulated runoff by ANN was generally closer to the observed values than those predicted by HSPF.

An Implicit Coupled 1D/2D Model for Unsteady Subcritical Flow in Channel Networks and Embayment

In this study, 1D and 2D shallow-water models were coupled to simulate unsteady flow in channel networks and embayment. The 1D model solved the 1D shallow-water equations (St. Venant) using the Preissmann box method and targeted long narrow reaches of the river networks, while the 2D model targeted broad channels and embayment and solved the 2D shallow-water equations using a semi-implicit scheme applied to an unstructured grid of triangular cells. The 1D and 2D models were solved simultaneously by building a matrix for the free surface elevation at every 1D junction and 2D cell center. Velocities were then computed explicitly based on the results at the previous time step and the updated water level. The originality of the scheme arose from a novel coupling method. The results showed that the coupled 1D/2D model produced identical results as the full 2D model in classical to benchmark problems with considerable savings in computational effort. Application of the model to the Pearl River Estuary in southern China showed that complex patterns of tidal wave propagation could be efficiently modeled.

Mapping Urban Networks through Inter-Firm Linkages: The Case of Listed Companies in Yangtze River Delta, China

Recently, literature on urban network research from the perspective of ?rm networks has been increasing. This research mainly used data from the headquarters and branches of all 2581 listed manufacturing companies in the Yangtze River Delta from 1990 to 2017, and studied the urban network through an interlocking network model that quantifies the links between enterprises. The results showed that the spatial distribution of listed manufacturing industries in the Yangtze River Delta was relatively concentrated, and cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou were hot spots for the spatial distribution of listed manufacturing industries. However, Fuyang, Suqian, Chizhou, Lishui and other network edge cities were less distributed in manufacturing. The urban network of the Yangtze River Delta has significant hierarchical characteristics. The urban network of the Yangtze River Delta presents a multi-center network development mode with Shanghai as the center and Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei as the sub-centers. Moreover, we found that the development of inter-city connections in the Yangtze River Delta was driven by network mechanisms of priority attachment and path dependence. The radiating capacity and agglomeration capacity of cities in the Yangtze River Delta have a strong polarization characteristic. The core cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Hefei have much higher network radiation capabilities than network aggregation capabilities. However, other non-core cities and network edge cities have weak network radiation capabilities, and mainly accept network radiation from core cities. It enriches the research of urban networks based on real inter-?rm connections, and provides ideas for the wider regional study and the combination of econometric techniques and social network analysis.

Responses of River Runoff to Climate Change Based on Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province, China

Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.

The Research and Application of BP Neural Networks in River-basin Water and Sediment

Based on the basic principles of BP artificial neural network model and the fundamental law of water and sediment yield in a river basin, a BP neural network model is developed by using observed data, with rainfall conditions serving as affecting factors. The model has satisfactory performance of learning and generalization and can be also used to assess the influence of human activities on water and sediment yield in a river basin. The model is applied to compute the runoff and sediment transmission at Xingshan, Bixi and Shunlixia stations. Comparison between the results from the model and the observed data shows that the model is basically reasonable and reliable.

分支河流体系沉积学工作框架与流程

基于现有的研究成果和存在的问题,探讨了分支河流体系(DFS)研究中的关键科学问题、主要研究内容、研究方法和工作流程。研究结果表明:①DFS研究中最关键的3个科学问题是明确河网结构和河型演变规律、构建沉积标志和沉积模式、分析其形成和分布的控制因素。②DFS研究的主要内容包括建设形态沉积学数据库、现代沉积机理研究、分类研究、建立沉积模式、储层建模与储层预测等5个方面。③DFS研究中的关键技术包括基于遥感图像的形态数据采集、形成机理的水槽和模拟实验、河网重构、顶点位置预测与河道分汊点自动生成方法、储层建模知识库平台等。④DFS研究的基本工作流程是先建立形态沉积学数据库,搭建数据库软件平台,在此基础上选择具有代表性的DFS进行现代沉积解剖,然后综合现代沉积调查、露头解剖和模拟实验成果,形成分类体系,总结各类DFS的识别标志和沉积模式,分层次建立储层预测模型,形成沉积结构储层预测模型的建模软件平台,从而预测沉积体系中有利储层的分布。

机器学习算法在降水和气温多模式集成中的应用

选取CMIP6中5种全球气候模式,利用算术平均、权重平均、多元线性回归、BP神经网络、长短期记忆(LSTM)神经网络和随机森林(RF)等6种多模式集成方法,基于黄河流域水源涵养区历史降水量和气温数据,评估不同集成方法的模拟效果,并选取模拟效果最好的多模式集成方法预估未来SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.53种情景下黄河流域水源涵养区的降水和气温变化趋势。结果表明:多模式集成能很好地再现基准期降水和气温变化,3种机器学习算法表现相对较好,其中LSTM神经网络最好;在未来3种情景下,多年平均降水量均有所增加,四季降水量变化各有差异;SSP1-2.6情景下年降水量峰值出现在各时段初期,SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下的年降水量呈增长趋势,远期下降趋势较明显;3种情景下气温都呈上升趋势,但变化差异较大,增温幅度和速率由小到大为SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5,秋季气温增幅最大,冬季最小;多模式集成方法对未来降水量和气温的预估存在较大的不确定性,均表现为中远期大于近期,降水量预估的不确定性比气温大,其中降水量秋冬季不确定性明显大于春夏季。

铁路网络联系对城市土地绿色利用效率的影响研究——以长三角地区为例

研究目的:探究铁路网络联系对城市土地绿色利用效率的影响及空间溢出效应,为依托铁路交通发展促进土地绿色利用效率提升提供科学依据。研究方法:超效率SBM模型,社会网络分析方法,空间面板模型。研究结果:(1)长三角城市铁路联系强度和土地绿色利用效率均呈现显著的增长趋势,土地绿色利用效率存在着较为明显的区域差异。(2)铁路联系强度的提高促进了本城市土地绿色利用效率的提升,与综合铁路联系相比,高铁联系对本城市土地绿色利用效率的提升作用更加明显。(3)铁路联系的加强促进了本城市产业结构合理化水平的提升和创新产出的增长,进而对土地绿色利用效率产生影响。高铁联系在促进本城市产业结构合理化水平提升和创新产出增长方面的作用更加明显。(4)城市对外铁路联系强度的提高产生了负向的空间溢出效应,抑制了邻近城市土地绿色利用效率的提升。研究结论:应充分发挥铁路建设在优化产业结构、促进创新方面的作用,依托铁路网络加强区域内经济技术合作、发挥各城市比较优势,以推动区域土地绿色利用效率的整体性提升。

考虑水动力条件及水系连通的平原河网圩区畅流活水方案

针对平原河网地区水动力条件不足等问题,以嘉兴市新塍镇为例,探究不同畅流活水方案对河道水质的改善效果。构建MIKE11水动力学水质耦合模型,分析“引水/水系连通—水质”驱动响应规律,以NH3-N浓度为主要指标,分析不同活水方案的水质改善效果,并提出优化调控方案。结果表明,集中引水对区域水质改善影响较小,分散设置多个引水点可明显提高水质;直接对水质较差河道进行补水,污染物消减率在8%~30%之间,水质改善效果较明显;合理的水系连通工程可进一步增加畅流活水方案水质改善效果。

黄河流域城市网络关联格局及影响因素——基于数字经济企业投资视角

基于2010年、2015年和2020年数字经济上市企业投资数据,采用社会网络分析法,分析了基于数字经济企业投资的黄河流域城市网络时空演变特征,并运用QAP模型揭示其影响因素。研究发现:第一,西安、青岛、济南一直是主要投资城市,数字制造业是数字经济企业投资的主要方向。第二,黄河流域城市网络结构显示,整体网络通达度高且稳定,城市间数字经济联系日益紧密;个体网络呈邻近扩散和跳跃扩散模式,高行政级别指向性导致“马太效应”显著;局部网络呈地理空间邻近特征,子群分布由中西部过渡到东部地区,突破“孤岛式”发展,形成“带式”格局。第三,交通密度、创新能力、地理距离、行政关系是驱动黄河流域数字产业发展和布局的主要因素,但存在行业异质性特征。传统区位因素对数字制造业影响较大,容易形成“区位锁定”和“行业锁定”,而数字服务业则倾向于布局在高行政级别聚集地。

基于VMD-TCN-GRU模型的水质预测研究

为充分挖掘水质数据在短时震荡中的变化特征,提升预测模型的精度,提出一种基于VMD(变分模态分解)、TCN(卷积时间神经网络)及GRU(门控循环单元)组成的混合水质预测模型,采用VMD-TCN-GRU模型对汾河水库出水口高锰酸盐指数进行预测,并与此类研究中常见的SVR(支持向量回归)、LSTM(长短期记忆神经网络)、TCN和CNN-LSTM(卷积神经网络-长短期记忆神经网络)这4种模型预测结果对比表明:VMD-TCN-GRU模型能更好挖掘水质数据在短时震荡过程中的特征信息,提升水质预测精度;VMD-TCN-GRU模型的MAE(平均绝对误差)、RMSE(均方根误差)下降,R^(2)(确定系数)提高,其MAE、RMSE、R^(2)分别为0.0553、0.0717、0.9351;其预测性能优越,预测精度更高且拥有更强的泛化能力,可以应用于汾河水质预测。

“双碳”目标下黄河流域绿色技术创新效率评价及影响因素

基于“双碳”目标视角,采用超效率动态网络SBM模型测算黄河流域82市(盟)2011—2021年绿色技术创新的综合效率、科技研发效率及成果转化效率,并利用面板Tobit回归模型检验外部环境因素对三种效率的影响。结果表明:将CO_(2)排放量纳入指标体系后,中下游地区绿色技术创新综合效率得以提升,上游地区效率反而下降;黄河流域绿色技术创新综合效率呈波动上升趋势,科技研发效率起引擎作用;黄河流域绿色技术创新综合效率区域差异明显,成果转化效率差异是综合效率差异的主要来源;经济发展水平、产业结构高级化、人力资本禀赋、对外开放水平、政府支持力度和环境规制强度对三种效率的影响具有区域异质性。建议黄河流域提高绿色技术创新能力,完善创新成果转化平台,推动能源和产业结构升级。