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基于主成分与广义回归神经网络耦合的寒区水库裂缝开合度预测模型 被引量:1
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作者 古力米热.哈那提 美丽古丽.买买提 孟波 《干旱区地理》 CSCD 北大核心 2011年第4期584-590,共7页
水库裂缝开合情况对于水库的安全运行极为重要。将主成分分析法与广义回归神经网络结合在一起,进行水库裂缝开合度的预测。结果表明:应用主成分分析与广义回归神经网络相耦合的模型可以很好的反映环境因子(水压力因子、温度因子、时效因... 水库裂缝开合情况对于水库的安全运行极为重要。将主成分分析法与广义回归神经网络结合在一起,进行水库裂缝开合度的预测。结果表明:应用主成分分析与广义回归神经网络相耦合的模型可以很好的反映环境因子(水压力因子、温度因子、时效因子)与水库裂缝开合度之间的非线性函数映射关系。同时利用Matlab软件对新疆某寒区水库裂缝的开合度进行了实例分析和预测。预测结果显示,水库裂缝开合度的最大相对误差分别8.14%,相关性系数为0.984 7,具有较高的预报精度。通过主成分分析与广义回归神经网络相耦合的方法,有效的消除了原指标间的相关性,降低了神经网络的输入,提取了对因变量解释性最强的成分,使广义回归神经网络的输入层节点数由原来的8个减少到2个,起到了网络结构的简化,增强了网络的稳定性。耦合模型弥补了最小二乘回归无法有效识别和消除因子间多重相关性影响的不足,为水库裂缝开合度、大坝位移等指标预测提供了新的思路和方法。 展开更多
关键词 主成分分析 广义回归神经网络 水库裂缝开合度 预测模型
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Effective migration system of coalbed methane reservoirs in the southern Qinshui Basin 被引量:2
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作者 WU CaiFang QIN Yong ZHOU LongGang 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第12期2978-2984,共7页
Effective migration system of coalbed methane(CBM)reservoir,which was controlled by development degree and opening-closing degree of fractures,determines the permeability of coal reservoir and can be characterized by ... Effective migration system of coalbed methane(CBM)reservoir,which was controlled by development degree and opening-closing degree of fractures,determines the permeability of coal reservoir and can be characterized by the pore-fracture system in the extrinsic form.In this paper,based on coal matrix elastic self-regulating effect theory and coal reservoir combined elastic energy theory,the fracture opening-closing degree parameterΔand the fracture development degree parameterξare suggested for the quantitative study of the effective migration system of CBM reservoir in southern Qinshui Basin.Further,the control functions ofξandΔto CBM enrichment and high production are discussed.The results show that in present stage the area with highξvalue is located in Anze and Qinyuan,and then Zhengzhuang and Fangzhuang,where fracture development degree is high.The area with highΔvalue is located in Zhengzhuang and Fanzhuang,and then Anze and Qinyuan,indicating where coal matrix elastic self-regulating positive effect dominates and fractures tend to be open.Through the comprehensive analysis onξandΔ,it can be found that their best match area is located in Zhengzhuang and Fanzhuang,with high values for fracture development degree and opening-closing degree probably bringing about high fluid pressure and good permeability of reservoirs,which are advantageous to an abundant CBM production. 展开更多
关键词 CBM reservoirs effective migration system opening-closing degree of fracture development degree of fracture PERMEABILITY
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