Validation of an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province, South China

In this study,an operational forecasting system of sea dike risk in the southern Zhejiang Province,South China was developed based on a coupled storm-surge and wave model.This forecasting system is important because of the high cost of storm-surge damage and the need for rapid emergency planning.A comparison with astronomical tides in 2016 and the validation of storm surges and high water marks of 20 typhoons verified that the forecast system has a good simulation ability.The system can forecast relatively realistic water levels and wave heights as shown under the parametric atmospheric forces simulated in a case study;the sea dikes in credible high risk were mainly located in the estuaries,rivers,and around the islands in the southern Zhejiang.Therefore,the forecast system is applicable in the southern Zhejiang with a support to the effective prevention from typhoon storm-surge damage.

An Application of Bayesian Inference on the Modeling and Estimation of Operational Risk Using Banking Loss Data

Bayesian inference method has been presented in this paper for the modeling of operational risk. Bank internal and external data are divided into defined loss cells and then fitted into probability distributions. The distribution parameters and their uncertainties are estimated from posterior distributions derived using the Bayesian inference. Loss frequency is fitted into Poisson distributions. While the Poisson parameters, in a similar way, are defined by a posterior distribution developed using Bayesian inference. Bank operation loss typically has some low frequency but high magnitude loss data. These heavy tail low frequency loss data are divided into several buckets where the bucket frequencies are defined by the experts. A probability distribution, as defined by the internal and external data, is used for these data. A Poisson distribution is used for the bucket frequencies. However instead of using any distribution of the Poisson parameters, point estimations are used. Monte Carlo simulation is then carried out to calculate the capital charge of the in- ternal as well as the heavy tail high profile low frequency losses. The output of the Monte Carlo simulation defines the capital requirement that has to be allocated to cover potential operational risk losses for the next year.

Operational risk assessment of third-party payment platforms:a case study of China

Operational risk events have severely impacted the development of third-party payment(TPP)platforms,and have even led to a discussion on the operational risk capital charge settlement by relevant international regulators.However,prior studies have mostly focused on qualitative mechanism analysis,and have rarely examined quantitative risk assessment based on actual operational risk events.Therefore,this study attempts to assess the operational risk on TPP platforms in China by constructing a systematic framework incorporating database construction and risk modeling.First,the operational risk database that covers 202 events between Q1,2014,and Q2,2020 is constructed.Then,specific causes are clarified,and the characteristics are analyzed from both the trend and loss severity perspectives.Finally,the piecewise-defined severity distribution based-Loss Distribution Approach(PSD-LDA)with double truncation is utilized to assess the operational risk.Two main conclusions are drawn from the empirical analysis.First,legal risk and external fraud risk are the two main causes of operational risk.Second,the yearly Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall are 724.46 million yuan and 1081.98 million yuan under the 99.9%significance level,respectively.Our results are beneficial for both TPP platform operators and regulators in managing and controlling operational risk.

Health risk of whole body vibration in mining trucks during various operational conditions

Mining machineries are generally exposed to intensive vibrations in harsh mining environment. If vibrations are beyond the tolerable limit, the machine and its operator health will be under the risk. In this work, the vibration of a mining truck at different operational conditions are simulated and discussed. To achieve this aim, three haul roads with low, medium and poor qualities are considered based on the ISO standard. Accordingly, the vibration of a mining truck in different speeds, payload and distribution qualities of materials in the dump body are evaluated in each haul road quality using Trucksim software. The simulation results with statistical discussions indicate that the truck speed and the materials distribution quality have significant effects on the root mean square(RMS) of vertical vibrations. However, the effect of the payload is not considerable on the RMS. Moreover, the accumulation of materials on the rear side of the truck dump body is efficient on the vibrational health risk.

Risk factors of gastroparesis syndrome after abdominal nongastroduodenal operation and its prevention

Objective:To investigate risk factors of gastroparesis syndrome(PGS) after abdominal nongastroduodenal operation and its prevention.Methods:Clinical data of 22 patients with PGS after abdominal non-gastroduodenal operation was analyzed retrospectively,and compared with the patients of non-PGS after abdominal non-gastroduodenal operation during the same time.The possible influencing factors of PCS were analyzed by single factor analysis and logistic regression analysis.Results:All t3 selected factors related with PGS,including age,disease category (benign and malignant),operation time,intraoperative blood loss,postoperative analgesic pump, postoperative enteral nutrition time,postoperative parenteral nutrition time,perioperative blood glucose level,perioperative nutrition status(anaemia or lower proleinemia),pylorus obstruction before surgery,intra-abdominal infection after surgery,and spiritual factor were related with PGS.The statistical analysis showed that the difference was statistical significant(P【0.05),and gender had no correlation with PCS(P】0.05);non-conditional multivariate analysis showed that malignant tumor,perioperative nutrition status,pylorus obstruction,operation time,blood loss, intra-abdominal infection after surgery,and mental factor were significant related with PGS as dependent variable and related risk factors in single factor analysis as independent variables (P 【0.05).Conclusions:PGS is a result of multiple factors,and among these factors,malignant tumor,poor nutrition status,pylorus obstruction before surgery,longer operation—time,more blood loss,intra-abdominal infection after surgery,and mental factor are major risk factors of PGS.

Study on the risk factors of lymphatic metastasis and the indications of less invasive operations in early gastric cancer

INTRODUCTIONThe principle of surgical treatment for gastric cancer is theradical resectioning although the suitable resetting range fordifferent cases of gastric cancer is still being arguedupon.However,the diagnostic accuracy of

Implementation of a risk management plan in a hospital operating room

A risk management program based on ASeNZS4360 risk management standards was developed and implemented in the operating room of Peking University Third Hospital.To accomplish this task,we developed a risk quantification matrix and a risk register form to identify potential risks in the operating room,and then implemented operating room policies designed to reduce or eliminate those risks.We also established a consultation mechanism and risk monitoring system designed to minimize risks to operation room nurses.Finally,we continuously seek to improve our operating room risk management capabilities,so we can continue to improve the quality of service provided and guarantee the safety of surgical patients.

Risk Management Strategy for Agricultural Operation Subjects in Simple Scale Expansion Mode

Agricultural operation subject is a main body of the market economy. At present,the simple scale expansion mode is a major mode of agricultural operation in China. According to some hypothesis,scale expansion will inevitably bring high income,but such hypothesis has serious defects. The operation mechanism of the simple scale expansion mode includes farmer operation mechanism,professional farmer operation mechanism,and " company + farmers" operation mechanism. In the production and operation,they will be faced with different natural risks,technical risks,market risks and policy risks. Besides,their risk control ability is also varied. Therefore,it is required to take different agricultural risk management strategies. The " company + farmers" production and operation subjects have the highest ability of risk management. Other subjects should learn their experience.

Risk Matrix as a Tool for Risk Analysis in Underwater Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry

The study is a cross-sectional design assessment of the likelihood, frequency and severity of hazards associated with underwater operations in the Niger Delta. Five oil and gas companies were used for this study selected by a purposive method given that they had the highest number of workers involved in underwater operations. A sample size of 418 was computed to which the questionnaires were administered with response rate of 95.93%. Data analyses were carried out to cover descriptive statistics, analysis of variance and Pearsonal correlation coefficients. The 4 by 4 risk assessment matrix for the likelihood and consequences showed that 8 out of 20 underwater hazards were categorized as having very high risk according to their risk ratings. The eight hazards categorized based on their risk IDs were H01, H03, H04, H08, H10, H11, H12, and H15. The 4 by 4 risk matrix for frequency and consequences revealed that two hazards (Piracy & bandit attack/kidnapping (H01) and Other main vessels/heavy object dropping or falling load/collision (H08)) were identified to be of very high risk.

Risk Assessment Based on Fault Tree Analysis for Damaged Pipe Repair During Operation in Petrochemical Plant

In petrochemical plant, the in-operation repairing is usually a repairing strategy with pressured inoperation repairing for avoiding huge economic losses caused by unplanned shutdown when some slight local leakage happens in pipes. This paper studies the effects of repairing strategies on the failure probability of the pipe systems in process industries based on the time-average fault tree approach, especially the in-operation repairing strategies including pressured in-operation repairing activities. The fault tree model can predict the effect of different repairing plans on the pipe failure probability, which is significant to the optimization of the repairing plans. At first pipes are distinguished into four states in this model, i.e., successive state, flaw state, leakage state and failure state. Then the fault tree approach, which is usually applied in the studies of dynamic equipment, is adopted to model the pipe failure. Moreover, the effect of pressured in-operation repairing is also considered in the model. In addition, this paper proposes a series of time-average parameters of the fault tree model, all of which are used to calculate node parameters of the fault tree model. At last, a practical case is calculated based on the fault tree model in a repairing activity of pipe thinning.

Construction on Establishment of Security Risk Assessment Index System for Chinese Peacekeeping Operations

In recent years,with the gradual deepening of Chinese participation in peacekeeping operations,the risks associated with peacekeeping operations have also gradually increased.Chinese peacekeeping operation safety risk assessment indicator system is the basis for evaluating the participation efficiency of Chinese participation in international peacekeeping operations and ensuring the safety of personnel and equipment.This paper discusses the establishment of a risk assessment index system based on the principles of safety system engineering and risk management.It begins with a number of aspects including staffing,equipment and tactics levels.The essay establishes Security Risk Assessment Index System for Chinese Peacekeeping,which provides technical support for the application of the evaluation system in the future.

Risk Management and Operation Strategies of Chinese Overseas Risk Exploration Projects

Currently,the investment of oil and gas industry is still facing an unfavorable environment,in which,instable factors,such as financial crisis,terrorist,religious conflicts and rigorous environmental regulations,keep mucking up the business all around the world.Meanwhile,China’s rapid energy consumption growth boosted by a booming economy has put the country to rely heavily on exported oil.It is therefore extremely urgent to expand and diversify petroleum supply channel in consideration of the country’s energy security.As the world’s economy has been slowly recovering from the slump and

Research on Safety Risk Assessment Method for Large Scale Field Operation Project

By applying man-machine-environment system engineering theory, safety risks on large scale field operation project have been evaluated in this article. The factors concerning with the man, machine and environment in system were proposed separately. The value for lowest indexs was determined by decision-making of expert group. The weights were calculated based on AHP, and then safety risk assessment in different layers was made. The results show that the assessment method is reasonable, and it is significant for large scale field operation project safety managerment.

Comparative Analysis of Pythagorean MCDM Methods for the Risk Assessment of Childhood Cancer

According to the World Health Organization(WHO),cancer is the leading cause of death for children in low and middle-income countries.Around 400,000 kids get diagnosed with this illness each year,and their survival rate depends on the country in which they live.In this article,we present a Pythagorean fuzzy model that may help doctors identify the most likely type of cancer in children at an early stage by taking into account the symptoms of different types of cancer.The Pythagorean fuzzy decision-making techniques that we utilize are Pythagorean Fuzzy TOPSIS,Pythagorean Fuzzy Entropy(PF-Entropy),and Pythagorean Fuzzy PowerWeighted Geometric(PFPWG).Ourmodel is fed with nineteen symptoms and it diagnoses the risk of eight types of cancers in children.We develop an algorithm for each method and calculate its complexity.Additionally,we consider an example to make a clear understanding of our model.We also compare the final results of various tests that prove the authenticity of this study.

Identification of Key Links in Electric Power Operation Based-Spatiotemporal Mixing Convolution Neural Network

As the scale of the power system continues to expand,the environment for power operations becomes more and more complex.Existing risk management and control methods for power operations can only set the same risk detection standard and conduct the risk detection for any scenario indiscriminately.Therefore,more reliable and accurate security control methods are urgently needed.In order to improve the accuracy and reliability of the operation risk management and control method,this paper proposes a method for identifying the key links in the whole process of electric power operation based on the spatiotemporal hybrid convolutional neural network.To provide early warning and control of targeted risks,first,the video stream is framed adaptively according to the pixel changes in the video stream.Then,the optimized MobileNet is used to extract the feature map of the video stream,which contains both time-series and static spatial scene information.The feature maps are combined and non-linearly mapped to realize the identification of dynamic operating scenes.Finally,training samples and test samples are produced by using the whole process image of a power company in Xinjiang as a case study,and the proposed algorithm is compared with the unimproved MobileNet.The experimental results demonstrated that the method proposed in this paper can accurately identify the type and start and end time of each operation link in the whole process of electric power operation,and has good real-time performance.The average accuracy of the algorithm can reach 87.8%,and the frame rate is 61 frames/s,which is of great significance for improving the reliability and accuracy of security control methods.

Data-Driven Model for Risk Assessment of Cable Fire in Utility Tunnels Using Evidential Reasoning Approach

Cable fire is one of the most important events for operation and maintenance(O&M)safety in underground utility tunnels(UUTs).Since there are limited studies about cable fire risk assessment,a comprehensive assessment model is proposed to evaluate the cable fire risk in different UUT sections and improve O&M efficiency.Considering the uncertainties in the risk assessment,an evidential reasoning(ER)approach is used to combine quantitative sensor data and qualitative expert judgments.Meanwhile,a data transformation technique is contributed to transform continuous data into a five-grade distributed assessment.Then,a case study demonstrates how the model and the ER approach are established.The results show that in Shenzhen,China,the cable fire risk in District 8,B Road is the lowest,while more resources should be paid in District 3,C Road and District 25,C Road,which are selected as comparative roads.Based on the model,a data-driven O&M process is proposed to improve the O&M effectiveness,compared with traditional methods.This study contributes an effective ER-based cable fire evaluation model to improve the O&M efficiency of cable fire in UUTs.