Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry

Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality.

Progress, challenge and significance of building a carbon industry system in the context of carbon neutrality strategy

Carbon dioxide storage and utilization has become an inevitable trend and choice for sustainable development under the background of global climate change and carbon neutrality.Carbon industry which is dominated by CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage/CO_(2) capture and storage(CCUS/CCS)is becoming a new strategic industry under the goal of carbon neutrality.The sustainable development of carbon industry needs to learn from the experiences of global oil and gas industry development.There are three types of“carbon”in the earth system.Black carbon is the CO_(2) that has not been sequestered or used and remains in the atmosphere for a long time;grey carbon is the CO_(2) that has been fixed or permanently sequestered in the geological body,and blue carbon is the CO_(2) that could be converted into products for human use through biological,physical,chemical and other ways.The carbon industry system covers carbon generation,carbon capture,carbon transportation,carbon utilization,carbon sequestration,carbon products,carbon finance,and other businesses.It is a revolutionary industrial field to completely eliminate“black carbon”.The development of carbon industry technical system takes carbon emission reduction,zero carbon,negative carbon and carbon economy as the connotation,and the construction of a low-cost and energy-efficient carbon industry system based on CCUS/CCS are strategic measures to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and clean energy utilization globally.This will promote the“four 80%s”transformation of China's energy supply,namely,to 2060,the percentage of zero-carbon new energy in the energy consumption will be over 80%and the CO_(2) emission will be decreased by 80%to ensure the carbon emission reduction of total 80×10^(8) t from the percentage of carbon-based fossil energy in the energy consumption of over 80%,and the percentage of CO_(2) emission from energy of over 80%in 2021.The carbon industry in China is facing three challenges,large CO_(2) emissions,high percentage of coal in energy consumption,and poor innovative system.Three strategic measures are proposed accordingly,including:(1)unswervingly develop carbon industrial system and ensure the achievement of carbon neutrality as scheduled by 2060;(2)vigorously develop new energy sources and promote a revolutionary transformation of China’s energy production and consumption structure;(3)accelerate the establishment of scientific and technological innovation system of the whole CO_(2) industry.It is of great significance for continuously optimization of ecological environment and construction of green earth and ecological earth to develop the carbon industry system,utilize clean energy,and achieve the strategic goal of global carbon neutrality.

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China:Goals,implementation path and prospects

Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges.On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization,this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization.China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions:(1)in terms of carbon dioxide emission control:energy transformation path,energy conservation,and emission reduction path;(2)for increasing carbon sink:carbon capture,utilization,and storage path,ecological governance,and land greening path;(3)in key technology development:zero-carbon utilization,coal new energy coupling,carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS),energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization;(4)from the angle of policy development:Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market;Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society.Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development;speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation;accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.

Research on Carbon Reduction Strategy of China’s Industrial Chain with the Goal of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality

In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.

Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

Major contribution to carbon neutrality by China’s geosciences and geological technologies

In the context of global climate change,geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality.This paper discusses the main problems,opportunities,and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality,as well as China’s response to them.The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories:(1)Carbon emission reduction technology(natural gas hydrate,geothermal,hot dry rock,nuclear energy,hydropower,wind energy,solar energy,hydrogen energy);(2)carbon sequestration technology(carbon capture and storage,underground space utilization);(3)key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization(raw materials for energy transformation,carbon reduction technology).Therefore,geosciences and geological technologies are needed:First,actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas,geothermal energy,hydropower,hot dry rock,and key energy minerals,and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas;the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection,carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures,and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters;the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences,organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources,carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory,and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines.The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research.In the future,it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects,enhance the ability of climate adaptation,and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

Research on the Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization Model in Colleges and Universities:Taking China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as an Example

The“3060”goal demonstrates China’s responsibility in actively responding to global climate,enhances China’s voice and influence in climate governance,and sets an example of energy conservation and emission reduction for developing countries.As the main institutions that educate people for the Party and the country,colleges and universities have the responsibility to explore the realization path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization against the new problems encountered in the practice of energy conservation and emission reduction in colleges and universities.In response to the national strategy and the action plan of the Ministry of Education,taking the carbon practice of China University of Geosciences(Beijing)as the starting point,this paper conducts benchmarking research on the path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in universities through the ecological factor method,campus carbon footprint,and questionnaire analysis.

Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3) and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4) has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4) into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

中国实现碳中和:降碳风险的识别与应对

中国实现碳中和目标必将引发能源利用模式的深度变革,重塑各领域生产生活方式既是一场系统性变革,也面临微观与宏观的转型风险。从系统视角阐释中国零碳转型过程中降碳风险及其风险的系统传导机制,并基于低碳/零碳/负碳技术创新及转化的“研发—应用—推广”的阶段过程,解析了零碳转型过程中风险因素的传导路径;指出技术成熟度、产品绿色溢价、资产沉没成本、技术应用及供应链保障五类主要降碳风险,评估其对中国碳中和目标实现和社会经济发展的影响。提出中国需从系统视角慎重把握目标实现过程中的降碳风险,从政策引领、监测核算、科技人才、创新环境、国际合作等多方面共同发力和协同推进,全局把控设计应对政策措施,应深入实施低碳技术领跑者政策、加强碳排放核算与碳减排风险评估、积极培育壮大低碳技术研发力量、营造有利于低碳创新的社会环境。

绿色金融、技术创新与碳排放

绿色金融作为一种结合了金融与环境保护的金融创新工具,已经成为助推碳减排的新动能。基于2009-2021年我国30个省份的省级面板数据,结合双向固定效应、调节效应和分位数回归等方法,实证检验绿色金融对二氧化碳排放强度的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:绿色金融能够有效抑制碳排放强度,且这一结论具有稳健性;绿色金融可以通过技术创新来减少碳排放;绿色金融对碳排放的抑制作用先增加后减少;中西部地区和工业化水平更高的地区,绿色金融能够更有效地发挥碳减排效应。要通过积极开展动态的绿色金融实践工作,建立健全绿色金融体系,推动多元主体协同推进绿色金融发展。

“双碳”目标下旅游业发展的新机遇与新思路

旅游业发展中的碳排放量多少,在助力实现“双碳”目标中有巨大的潜力和举足轻重的作用,旅游业应遵循多方面、多层次高质量发展理念,从供给侧、消费侧、政策支撑等方面促进降碳减排。在供给侧视角下,促进旅游业科技创新,提升旅游业节能减碳技术发展,推动数字化建设,促进旅游业能源结构清洁化转型,以实现供给侧的降碳减排;在消费端视角下,通过从提高游客的低碳意识、倡导低碳旅游消费方式、建立利益相关方参与机制等倡导公众参与减碳措施,从消费端减少旅游碳排放量;在政策保障视角下,通过完善顶层设计、行业管理、人才培养等建议,完善旅游业低碳发展的总体政策规定,以期为实现我国“双碳”目标提供可行路径。

四川省近零碳排放园区建设的路径探索

党的二十大明确要求积极稳妥推进碳达峰和碳中和。工业、产业等园区是碳排放集中区域,推动园区绿色低碳发展、开展近零碳排放园区建设是四川省实现碳达峰碳中和目标的重要举措。当前,四川省碳排放的主要特点是:碳排放量呈现明显上升趋势;工业是碳排放的核心产业领域;煤炭消费碳排放量占据主导地位;清洁能源消费占比正在逐年提高。为了推动和优化四川省近零碳排放园区建设,为未来经济增长提供可持续的动力,应通过实施园区差异化建设、推动产业低碳转型、重视降碳技术研发应用、数字赋能碳排管理、积极布局生态碳汇等举措,不断推动四川省经济结构优化升级。

“双碳”目标下天然气分布式能源发展现状及机遇

为实现碳达峰碳中和(以下简称“双碳”)目标,必须建设清洁低碳、安全高效的新型能源体系。天然气分布式能源具有相对清洁高效、综合能源利用效率高、输出能源类型多等优点,是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要发展路径之一。为此,剖析了我国天然气分布式能源存在的问题和发展机遇,进而对天然气分布式能源项目的发展提出了建议。研究结果表明:(1)中国天然气分布式能源整体发展相对较慢,且不同地区之间发展速度也存在差异,现有项目主要集中在经济较发达的京津冀鲁、长三角、珠三角以及天然气资源丰富的川渝等地区;(2)中国天然气分布式能源发展面临的主要问题包括前期投入成本较高、电网企业与项目用户端存在利益冲突使得项目上网困难、项目用户端对能源消纳程度的不确定性影响其投资回报等;(3)随着政策普及、技术发展、碳交易市场完善及经济性的提高,天然气分布式能源项目发展有望进入快速发展期。结论认为,在“双碳”目标引领下,中国天然气分布式能源产业正处于重要的战略机遇期,建议从政策支持、调峰需求、碳排放收益以及技术突破4个方面加强研究;天然气分布式能源的高质量推进对我国构建清洁低碳、安全高效的新型能源体系,助力实现“双碳”目标具有重要的现实意义。

国家中心城市交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构及动因研究

为科学把握城市交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构,实现交通运输业可持续发展,基于2011—2020年我国9个国家中心城市交通碳排放数据,构建考虑非期望产出的全局超效率SBM模型(GB-US-Super-SBM模型)并测算交通碳排放效率,利用修改的引力模型建立空间关联网络,在此基础上应用社会网络分析方法厘清交通碳排放效率空间网络结构及其动因。结果表明:1)研究期内,9个国家中心城市交通碳排放效率整体水平不高,城市间存在较大差距。2)国家中心城市交通碳排放效率的空间关联呈现网络结构形态,并逐渐形成了天津、西安、郑州等多个网络中心;空间网络关联性以2017年为节点呈现先增强后减弱的趋势;天津、西安、郑州等城市发挥着“桥梁”和“中介”作用,对空间网络的形成发挥了重要作用。3)经济发展水平差异、城镇化水平差异、节能技术水平差异和空间邻接关系等因素在交通碳排放效率的空间网络结构中发挥显著作用,其中空间邻接关系和经济发展水平差异的影响最显著。

水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的机制与途径构建

水土保持碳汇具备负碳技术的特性,受到政府和交易主体广泛关注和青睐,未来将在我国碳排放权交易市场中得到广泛应用。从建立碳汇项目开发团队、实施碳汇监测与核算、协调撮合交易和宣传示范等4个方面,总结全国首单水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的实践探索,提出水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的机制与途径,包括加强水土保持碳汇基础研究和技术攻关、完善水土保持碳汇监测和核算体系、开展碳汇项目开发和探索碳汇交易途径与机制、建立水土保持碳汇纳入温室气体自愿减排交易机制、建设碳汇项目开发队伍与机构、提升项目开发信息管理水平等6个方面。

中国工业低碳转型进程再评估及其多样化分解

工业低碳转型是中国落实“双碳”目标、推进绿色低碳发展的关键所在,全面理解中国工业低碳转型进程具有重要价值。为此,首先构建工业低碳转型进程再评估及其分解的理论框架,随后基于跨国、省份和行业样本数据,采用SBM方向性距离函数和Luenberger生产率指标对2001—2021年中国工业低碳转型进程展开再评估,并从生产技术演化、要素效率变动和经济结构变迁三个维度对该进程进行分解。研究发现,国际视角下的中国工业低碳转型进程在研究期内稳步推进,节奏更为平稳、方式更可持续;国内视角下的中国工业低碳转型进程在研究期内具有先快后缓的推进特征,且省份间和行业间低碳转型分化程度持续加深;经典分解表明技术进步和技术效率提升在推动工业低碳转型过程中无法有效协同,存在普遍的正负或强弱特征;要素分解表明工业低碳转型的驱动要素逐渐多元化,能源效率和碳效率的贡献逐步凸显,但具有一定波动性;结构分解显示区域结构效率总体呈小幅下降趋势,产业结构效率始终为负且后期受政策影响而呈现周期性波动特征。基于研究结论,从协同推进技术进步与技术效率改善、提升区域及行业维度能源效率和碳效率、优化经济结构效率三方面为高质量推进中国工业低碳转型进程提出了具体建议。

“双碳”战略背景下不锈钢复合钢板结构减碳前景分析

为探究不锈钢复合钢板结构的减碳前景,本文分析了“双碳”战略背景下钢结构行业的发展趋势,包括智能建造快速发展、新兴产业提供广阔市场以及高性能钢材和高性能结构发展更为迅猛,指出不锈钢复合钢板结构可兼顾高性能、经济性以及减碳要求。基于全寿命周期评价理论,采用排放因子法,提出了不锈钢复合钢板结构的碳排放计算方法。结果表明:不锈钢复合钢板结构的全寿命周期碳排放量比钢结构少36%,比不锈钢结构少10%。用不锈钢复合钢板结构替代普通钢结构,可以有效减少碳排放;替代不锈钢结构可以在减碳的同时具有良好的经济性。

大学生“节能低碳”意识调查与模糊综合评价——以昆明冶金高等专科学校为例

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