以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发...以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。展开更多
The water quality grades of phosphate（PO4-P） and dissolved inorganic nitrogen（DIN） are integrated by spatial partitioning to fit the global and local semi-variograms of these nutrients. Leave-one-out cross validat...The water quality grades of phosphate（PO4-P） and dissolved inorganic nitrogen（DIN） are integrated by spatial partitioning to fit the global and local semi-variograms of these nutrients. Leave-one-out cross validation is used to determine the statistical inference method. To minimize absolute average errors and error mean squares,stratified Kriging（SK） interpolation is applied to DIN and ordinary Kriging（OK） interpolation is applied to PO4-P.Ten percent of the sites is adjusted by considering their impact on the change in deviations in DIN and PO4-P interpolation and the resultant effect on areas with different water quality grades. Thus, seven redundant historical sites are removed. Seven historical sites are distributed in areas with water quality poorer than Grade IV at the north and south branches of the Changjiang（Yangtze River） Estuary and at the coastal region north of the Hangzhou Bay. Numerous sites are installed in these regions. The contents of various elements in the waters are not remarkably changed, and the waters are mixed well. Seven sites that have been optimized and removed are set to water with quality Grades III and IV. Optimization and adjustment of unrestricted areas show that the optimized and adjusted sites are mainly distributed in regions where the water quality grade undergoes transition.Therefore, key sites for adjustment and optimization are located at the boundaries of areas with different water quality grades and seawater.展开更多
Water release operation is crucial for water quality in large reservoirs such as Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR),because it determines the hydrodynamics and hence the self-purification capability.As algal blooms were ofte...Water release operation is crucial for water quality in large reservoirs such as Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR),because it determines the hydrodynamics and hence the self-purification capability.As algal blooms were often observed in some tributary bays of TGR during the release periods,high frequency field observations were carried out in a typical eutrophic tributary bay(Xiangxi River) from February 9 to May 10,2009.In this paper we assess the hydrodynamic behaviour,density stratification,and trophic status in this bay,respectively using a series of observations for flow,physical,chemical and biological parameters.Then,we analyze the effects of reservoir release operations on algal blooms using correlation analysis method.An empirical prognosis is concluded for the likelihood of algal bloom occurrence as a function of daily fluctuation of water level(DFWL) and water temperature.Our results indicate that during the release period,the algal bloom occurrences are closely tied to the DFWL in that if the ratio of DFWL to total water depth ranges from -10×10-4 to 0,the possibility of algal blooms may reach up to 70%,and if the ratio is less than -10×10-4,then that risk can be significantly reduced to less than 10%.This paper finally suggests that a wave-type water release operation should be beneficial in reducing bloom frequencies in the tributary water bodies,which is helpful for TGR water quality management,especially for the water release operation optimization.展开更多
文摘以黄河上游多年调节水库龙羊峡及下游刘家峡水库为研究对象,考虑来水不确定性影响,建立梯级水库群多目标随机优化模型,并基于理想点法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)决策方法,求解当年发电量与年末水位Pareto方案集中最佳方案,探讨来水频率及起调水位对年末水位和发电量的影响,验证年末期望水位保证多年调节水库发电效益的可靠性。结果表明:在不确定来水条件下,龙羊峡水库年末期望水位与龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库年期望发电量之间存在竞争关系;龙羊峡水库来水频率越低、起调水位越高时,龙羊峡水库年末水位越高,龙羊峡水库、刘家峡水库发电量越大;基于提出的年末水位优化方法可大幅缩减龙羊峡水库现行调度方式下年末水位范围,且保障发电效益的可靠性在98%以上。
基金The National Natural Science Fundation of China under contract Nos 41376190,41271404,41531179,41421001 and41601425the Open Funds of the Key Laboratory of Integrated Monitoring and Applied Technologies for Marin Harmful Algal Blooms,SOA under contract No.MATHA201120204+1 种基金the Scientific Research Project of Shanghai Marine Bureau under contract No.Hu Hai Ke2016-05the Ocean Public Welfare Scientific Research Project,State Oceanic Administration of the People's Republic of China under contract Nos 201305027 and 201505008
文摘The water quality grades of phosphate（PO4-P） and dissolved inorganic nitrogen（DIN） are integrated by spatial partitioning to fit the global and local semi-variograms of these nutrients. Leave-one-out cross validation is used to determine the statistical inference method. To minimize absolute average errors and error mean squares,stratified Kriging（SK） interpolation is applied to DIN and ordinary Kriging（OK） interpolation is applied to PO4-P.Ten percent of the sites is adjusted by considering their impact on the change in deviations in DIN and PO4-P interpolation and the resultant effect on areas with different water quality grades. Thus, seven redundant historical sites are removed. Seven historical sites are distributed in areas with water quality poorer than Grade IV at the north and south branches of the Changjiang（Yangtze River） Estuary and at the coastal region north of the Hangzhou Bay. Numerous sites are installed in these regions. The contents of various elements in the waters are not remarkably changed, and the waters are mixed well. Seven sites that have been optimized and removed are set to water with quality Grades III and IV. Optimization and adjustment of unrestricted areas show that the optimized and adjusted sites are mainly distributed in regions where the water quality grade undergoes transition.Therefore, key sites for adjustment and optimization are located at the boundaries of areas with different water quality grades and seawater.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 50779028, 41001348)National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (Grant No 50925932)
文摘Water release operation is crucial for water quality in large reservoirs such as Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR),because it determines the hydrodynamics and hence the self-purification capability.As algal blooms were often observed in some tributary bays of TGR during the release periods,high frequency field observations were carried out in a typical eutrophic tributary bay(Xiangxi River) from February 9 to May 10,2009.In this paper we assess the hydrodynamic behaviour,density stratification,and trophic status in this bay,respectively using a series of observations for flow,physical,chemical and biological parameters.Then,we analyze the effects of reservoir release operations on algal blooms using correlation analysis method.An empirical prognosis is concluded for the likelihood of algal bloom occurrence as a function of daily fluctuation of water level(DFWL) and water temperature.Our results indicate that during the release period,the algal bloom occurrences are closely tied to the DFWL in that if the ratio of DFWL to total water depth ranges from -10×10-4 to 0,the possibility of algal blooms may reach up to 70%,and if the ratio is less than -10×10-4,then that risk can be significantly reduced to less than 10%.This paper finally suggests that a wave-type water release operation should be beneficial in reducing bloom frequencies in the tributary water bodies,which is helpful for TGR water quality management,especially for the water release operation optimization.
