Optimal Precursors Triggering the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Obtained by the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach

In this study, the initial perturbations that are the easiest to trigger the Kuroshio Extension （KE） transition connecting a basic weak jet state and a strong, fairly stable meandering state, are investigated using a reduced-gravity shallow water ocean model and the CNOP （Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation） approach. This kind of initial perturbation is called an optimal precursor （OPR）. The spatial structures and evolutionary processes of the OPRs are analyzed in detail. The results show that most of the OPRs are in the form of negative sea surface height （SSH） anomalies mainly located in a narrow band region south of the KE jet, in basic agreement with altimetric observations. These negative SSH anomalies reduce the merid- ional SSH gradient within the KE, thus weakening the strength of the jet. The KE jet then becomes more convoluted, with a high-frequency and large-amplitude variability corresponding to a high eddy kinetic energy level; this gradually strengthens the KE jet through an inverse energy cascade. Eventually, the KE reaches a high-energy state characterized by two well defined and fairly stable anticyclonic meanders. Moreover, sensitivity experiments indicate that the spatial structures of the OPRs are not sensitive to the model parameters and to the optimization times used in the analysis.

IOD-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors for IOD predictions from reanalysis data

This study explored the spatial patterns of winter predictability barrier(WPB)-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors for positive Indian Ocean dipole(IOD)events,and the associated physical mechanisms for their developments were analyzed using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation dataset.Without consideration of the effects of model errors on"predictions,"it was assumed that different"predictions"are caused by different initial conditions.The two types of WPB-related optimal initial errors are almost opposite for the start months of July(-1)and July(0),although they both present a west-east dipole pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean,with the maximum errors located at the thermocline depth.Bjerknes feedback and ocean waves play important roles in the growth of prediction errors.These two physical mechanisms compete during July-December and ocean waves dominate during January-June.The spatial patterns of optimal precursors and the physical mechanisms for their developments are similar to those of WPB-related optimal initial errors.It is worth noting that large values of WPB-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors are concentrated within a few locations,which probably represent the sensitive areas of targeted observations for positive IOD events.The great similarities between WPB-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors suggest that were intensive observations performed over these areas,this would not only reduce initial errors and thus,prediction errors,but it would also permit the detection of the signal of IOD events in advance,greatly improving the forecast skill of positive IOD events.

Three-Dimensional Structure of Optimal Nonlinear Excitation for Decadal Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation

The decadal variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation(THC) is investigated within a three-dimensional ocean circulation model using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. The results show that the optimal initial perturbations of temperature and salinity exciting the strongest decadal THC variations have similar structures: the perturbations are mainly in the northwestern basin at a depth ranging from 1500 to 3000 m. These temperature and salinity perturbations act as the optimal precursors for future modifications of the THC, highlighting the importance of observations in the northwestern basin to monitor the variations of temperature and salinity at depth. The decadal THC variation in the nonlinear model initialized by the optimal salinity perturbations is much stronger than that caused by the optimal temperature perturbations, indicating that salinity variations might play a relatively important role in exciting the decadal THC variability. Moreover, the decadal THC variations in the tangent linear and nonlinear models show remarkably different characteristics, suggesting the importance of nonlinear processes in the decadal variability of the THC.

Optimal Precursor Perturbations of El Ni?o in the Zebiak-Cane Model for Different Cost Functions

Optimal precursor perturbations of El Nino in the Zebiak-Cane model were explored for three different cost functions. For the different characteristics of the eastern-Pacific （EP） El Nino and the central-Pacific （CP） El Nino, three cost functions were defined as the sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） evolutions at prediction time in the whole tropical Pacific, the Nino3 area, and the Nino4 area. For all three cost functions, there were two optimal precursors that developed into El Nino events, called Precursor Ⅰ and Precursor Ⅱ. For Precursor Ⅰ, the SSTA component consisted of an east-west （positive-negative） dipole spanning the entire tropical Pacific basin and the thermocline depth anomaly pattern exhibited a tendency of deepening for the whole of the equatorial Pacific. Precursor Ⅰ can develop into an EP-El Nino event, with the warmest SSTA occurring in the eastern tropical Pacific or into a mixed El Nino event that has features between EP-El Nino and CP-El Nino events. For Precursor Ⅱ, the thermocline deepened anomalously in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the amplitude of deepening was obviously larger than that of shoaling in the central and western equatorial Pacific. Precursor Ⅱ developed into a mixed El Nino event. Both the thermocline depth and wind anomaly played important roles in the development of Precursor Ⅰ and Precursor Ⅱ.