Optimization of causative factors using logistic regression and artificial neural network models for landslide susceptibility assessment in Ujung Loe Watershed, South Sulawesi Indonesia

Landslide susceptibility maps(LSMs) play a vital role in assisting land use planning and risk mitigation. This study aims to optimize causative factors using logistic regression(LR) and an artificial neural network(ANN) to produce a LSM. The LSM is produced with 11 causative factors and then optimized using forward-stepwise LR(FSLR), ANN, and their combination(FSLR-ANN) until eight causative factors were found for each method. The ANN method produced superior validation results compared with LR. The ROC values for the training data set ranges between 0.8 and 0.9. On the other hand, validation with the percentage of landslide fall into LSM class high and very high, ANN method was higher(92.59%) than LR(82.12%). FSLR-ANN with nine causative factors gave the best validation results with respect to area under curve(AUC) values, and validation with the percentage of landslide fall into LSM class high and very high. In conclusion, ANN was found to be better than LR when producing LSMs. The best Optimization was combination of FSLR-ANN with nine causative factors and AUC success rate 0.847, predictive rate 0.844 and validation with landslide fall into high and very high class with 91.30%. It is an encouraging preliminary model towards a systematic introduction of FSLR-ANN model for optimization causative factors in landslide susceptibility assessment in the mountainous area of Ujung Loe Watershed.

Application of artificial neural networks in optimal tuning of tuned mass dampers implemented in high-rise buildings subjected to wind load

High-rise buildings are usually considered as flexible structures with low inherent damping. Therefore, these kinds of buildings are susceptible to wind-induced vibration. Tuned Mass Damper（TMD） can be used as an effective device to mitigate excessive vibrations. In this study, Artificial Neural Networks is used to find optimal mechanical properties of TMD for high-rise buildings subjected to wind load. The patterns obtained from structural analysis of different multi degree of freedom（MDF） systems are used for training neural networks. In order to obtain these patterns, structural models of some systems with 10 to 80 degrees-of-freedoms are built in MATLAB/SIMULINK program. Finally, the optimal properties of TMD are determined based on the objective of maximum displacement response reduction. The Auto-Regressive model is used to simulate the wind load. In this way, the uncertainties related to wind loading can be taken into account in neural network’s outputs. After training the neural network, it becomes possible to set the frequency and TMD mass ratio as inputs and get the optimal TMD frequency and damping ratio as outputs. As a case study, a benchmark 76-story office building is considered and the presented procedure is used to obtain optimal characteristics of the TMD for the building.

Performance Prediction of Switched Reluctance Motor using Improved Generalized Regression Neural Networks for Design Optimization

Since practical mathematical model for the design optimization of switched reluctance motor(SRM)is difficult to derive because of the strong nonlinearity,precise prediction of electromagnetic characteristics is of great importance during the optimization procedure.In this paper,an improved generalized regression neural network(GRNN)optimized by fruit fly optimization algorithm(FOA)is proposed for the modeling of SRM that represent the relationship of torque ripple and efficiency with the optimization variables,stator pole arc,rotor pole arc and rotor yoke height.Finite element parametric analysis technology is used to obtain the sample data for GRNN training and verification.Comprehensive comparisons and analysis among back propagation neural network(BPNN),radial basis function neural network(RBFNN),extreme learning machine(ELM)and GRNN is made to test the effectiveness and superiority of FOA-GRNN.

Parameters optimization for exponentially weighted moving average control chart using generalized regression neural network

As a useful alternative of Shewhart control chart, exponentially weighted moving average （EWMA） control chat has been applied widely to quality control, process monitoring, forecast, etc. In this paper, a method was introduced for optimal design of EWMA and multivariate EWMA （MEWMA） control charts, in which the optimal parameter pair （ λ, k） or （ λ, h ） was searched by using the generalized regression neural network （GRNN）. The results indicate that the optimal parameter pair can be obtained effectively by the proposed strategy for a given in-control average running length （ARLo） and shift to detect under any conditions, removing the drawback of incompleteness existing in the tables that had been reported.

Auto recognition of carbonate microfacies based on an improved back propagation neural network

Though traditional methods could recognize some facies, e.g. lagoon facies, backshoal facies and foreshoal facies, they couldn't recognize reef facies and shoal facies well. To solve this problem, back propagation neural network(BP-ANN) and an improved BP-ANN with better stability and suitability, optimized by a particle swarm optimizer(PSO) algorithm(PSO-BP-ANN) were proposed to solve the microfacies' auto discrimination of M formation from the R oil field in Iraq. Fourteen wells with complete core, borehole and log data were chosen as the standard wells and 120 microfacies samples were inferred from these 14 wells. Besides, the average value of gamma, neutron and density logs as well as the sum of squares of deviations of gamma were extracted as key parameters to build log facies(facies from log measurements)-microfacies transforming model. The total 120 log facies samples were divided into 12 kinds of log facies and 6 kinds of microfacies, e.g. lagoon bioclasts micrite limestone microfacies, shoal bioclasts grainstone microfacies, backshoal bioclasts packstone microfacies, foreshoal bioclasts micrite limestone microfacies, shallow continental micrite limestone microfacies and reef limestone microfacies. Furthermore, 68 samples of these 120 log facies samples were chosen as training samples and another 52 samples were gotten as testing samples to test the predicting ability of the discrimination template. Compared with conventional methods, like Bayes stepwise discrimination, both the BP-ANN and PSO-BP-ANN can integrate more log details with a correct rate higher than 85%. Furthermore, PSO-BP-ANN has more simple structure, smaller amount of weight and threshold and less iteration time.

机器学习模型在亚急性期脑卒中患者康复后功能结局预测中的价值研究

目的:探讨机器学习模型与逐步线性回归(Stepwise linear regression,SLR)模型在亚急性期脑卒中患者康复后功能结局预测中的价值。方法:选取中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四五医院2013年1月~2023年12月收治的亚急性期脑卒中患者1046例为研究对象,取患者一般资料以及入院时功能独立性量表(Functional Independence Measure,FIM)评分构建SLR、回归树(Regression trees.RT)、集成学习(Ensemble learning,EL)、人工神经网络(Artificial neural network,ANN)、支持向量回归(Support vector regression,SVR)以及高斯过程回归(Gaussian process regression,GPR)预测模型,并采用10折交叉验证,比较各模型实际与预测出院FIM评分以及FIM增益的决定系数(R^(2))、均方根误差(Root Mean Squared Error,RMSE)。结果:机器学习模型(R^(2):RT=0.75,EL=0.78,ANN=0.81,SVR=0.80,GPR=0.81)在预测FIM运动评分方面优于SLR(0.70)。机器学习模型对FIM增益总分的预测准确性(R^(2):RT=0.48,EL=0.51,ANN=0.50,SVR=0.51,GPR=0.54)也优于SLR(0.22)。结论:机器学习模型在预测FIM预后方面优于SLR:仅包含患者一般信息和入院FIM评分的机器学习模型的预测准确性优于既往研究,同时GPR对FIM预后的预测准确性最高。

改进的MVO-GRNN神经网络岩爆预测模型研究

准确预测岩爆烈度等级能有效指导岩爆灾害的防控。根据影响岩爆发生及烈度等级的3个因素构建岩爆评价指标体系,提出一种基于改进多元宇宙算法(Improved Multi-Verse Optimizer,IMVO)优化广义回归神经网络(General Regression Neural Network,GRNN)的岩爆预测模型。在普通多元宇宙算法(MVO)的基础上,运用自适应平衡机制调节MVO算法中的虫洞存在概率(V_(WEP))和旅行距离率(V_(TDR))两个重要参数来改进该算法;再运用改进的多元宇宙算法优化广义回归神经网络的光滑度,通过训练数据优选出最佳光滑因子σ,得到IMVO-GRNN神经网络岩爆烈度预测模型;最后结合工程实例验证模型的性能。研究表明,该模型相比传统模型寻优能力更强,精度更高,为岩爆预测提供了一种新的思路。

一种基于智能算法的GNSS高程拟合方法

广义回归神经网络(GRNN)是一种新型的前馈神经网络模型,具有训练次数少、耗时短、非线性参数的预报能力较强等优点。但GRNN唯一的调节参数SPREAD不能自动获取限制其进一步的应用。针对该缺陷,本文采用果蝇优化算法(FOA)与GRNN相结合构建FOAGRNN模型对GRNN进行优化,自动获取调节参数的值。为了检验FOAGRNN模型的GNSS高程拟合精度,进行了实验分析。实验结果证明了FOAGRNN模型的GNSS高程拟合精度可达6mm。为进一步检验FOAGRNN模型的优越性,采用与平面拟合模型、二次曲面拟合模型进行对比。实验结果表示FOAGRNN模型的拟合精度要优于平面拟合模型和二次曲面拟合模型,证明了FOAGRNN模型在数据样本较少的情况下,其GNSS高程拟合精度仍然可以达到较高精度。

无人机遥感的多植被指数土壤水分反演模型

土壤水分是影响农业生产的重要因素,在作物生长发育和最终产量上起着至关重要的作用,快速、高效地估算土壤水分已成为农林水资源监测的热点问题。利用高光谱反射率的特征波段计算植被指数、构建土壤水分反演模型已获得广泛的认可和应用。针对反演土壤水分受植被覆盖度影响较大的问题,提出用多种植被指数组合削弱植被覆盖度对土壤水分反演的影响。在宜昌市仓屋榜试验基地选取30组柑橘树,在果树滴落线处收集土壤,通过烘干法测定土壤质量含水率,采样4次,共计120组土壤含水率;并利用ASD Field Spectral FR光谱仪(波长范围325~1 075 nm)及大疆精灵4多光谱版无人机获取了120组试验区蓝、绿、红、红边、近红外及短波红外波段光谱反射率,采用移动平均法对光谱数据进行降噪预处理,通过灰色关联法对9种植被指数进行比较分析,筛选出与土壤水分极显著相关的4种植被指数(p<0.01),各指数与土壤水分的相关性从高到低依次为裸土指数(BSI)、归一化蓝绿差异植被指数(NGBDI)、绿色归一化指数(GNDVI)、归一化差异植被指数(NDVI),其中BSI与土壤水分的相关性最高,相关系数为-0.687(N=120)。采用线性逐步回归法和非线性BP神经网络法建立了基于多种植被指数的土壤水分反演模型,依据决定系数(R^(2))、相对误差绝对值(ARE)、均方根误差(RMSE)作为反演模型的精度评价指标。结果表明:逐步回归模型和BP神经网络模型的土壤水分反演值与实测值之间的R^(2)分别为0.816、 0.889, RMSE分别为2.54%、 1.53%, ARE分别为21.13%、 8.88%,利用多植被指数组合的非线性BP神经网络算法基于植被指数建模对土壤水分反演的精度更高,在一定程度上可以克服植被覆盖度不同对土壤水分反演精度的影响,作为直接测定土壤水分的有效替代方法,为农业灌溉定量决策及科学管理提供科学参数。

光温因子驱动的园艺作物叶龄模型模拟精度比较

为了提高光温因子驱动的园艺作物通用性叶龄模拟模型的模拟精度,以黄瓜、芹菜、菠菜、小香芹、郁金香和茶叶为供试材料,进行了7年(2016—2022年)的分期播种试验,依据作物生长发育与关键气象因子(辐射和温度)的关系,采用4类建模方法(温差法、积温法、生理发育时间法和辐热积法)构建了园艺作物叶龄模拟模型,并以6种方式(平均值、最值均值、中值、逐步回归、BP神经网络和Elman神经网络)和2种集成逻辑(直接和分步)集成模拟结果,最终优化模型模拟精度。结果表明:1)2种集成逻辑下模型模拟精度均较高,且分步集成逻辑优于直接集成逻辑,平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)差值为0.31 d,平均相对误差(mean relative error,MRE)差值为0.33%,均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)差值为0.40 d,归一化均方根误差(normalized root mean square error,NRMSE)差值为0.46%;2)2种集成逻辑下模型最优时间尺度为逐时尺度,最优作物类型为茶叶,最优建模方法为Elman神经网络集成模拟模型。研究结果可为园艺作物智慧生产管理和可视化提供理论依据和技术支撑。

基于数字图像技术反演中国东北黑土有机质含量

以东北黑土为研究对象,利用数码相机获取黑土的数字图像,遴选与土壤有机质(SOM)含量相关的红(R)、绿(G)、蓝(B)颜色分量,并通过逐步多元回归(SMRM)和神经网络模型(NNM)建立基于数字图像的SOM含量预测模型。结果表明:黑土数字图像的各颜色分量原始值与SOM含量的相关系数绝对值(r)依次为:R>G>B,分别为0.67、0.65、0.50。原始值经对数和开平方数值变换后,r增加,而经倒数和平方变换后,r降低。据此,基于数字图像R、G、B颜色分量的原始值和各变换值建立了预测SOM含量的SMRM模型,训练集和验证集决定系数(R2)分别为0.43~0.50和0.46~0.50,均方根误差(RMSE)分别为1.28%~1.39%和1.31%~1.39%(P<0.001),其中基于对数和开平方变换值的模型拟合程度和预测精度更高。同时,利用NNM模型基于黑土R、G、B颜色分量的原始值反演SOM含量,发现多层感知器算法模型得到的黑土SOM实测值和预测值之间R2均为0.49,RMSE为1.31%和1.28%(P<0.001)。因此,SMRM和NNM均能通过黑土数字图像的R、G、B颜色分量反演SOM含量,其是快速获取中国东北黑土SOM含量的一套可操作的预测方法。

四川省主要稻区二化螟灯诱和性诱年诱虫量预测模型构建

【目的】构建四川省主要稻区二化螟(Chilo suppressalis)灯诱和性诱的年诱虫量预测模型。【方法】基于四川主要稻区2018-2023年灯诱和性诱蛾量,采用Pearson分析二化螟年诱虫量与气象因子的相关性,通过逐步回归和BP神经网络构建相关预测模型。【结果】在灯诱和性诱2种诱捕法下,各稻区二化螟年诱虫量与气象因子(温度、湿度、降雨量和气压)密切相关;在灯诱捕法下,成都平原稻区的8月平均气温与二化螟年诱虫量正相关性显著(R=0.701),且是成都平原稻区逐步回归模型构建因子;在性诱捕法下,川东稻区的6月气压与二化螟年诱虫量负相关性显著(R=−0.840);比较不同诱捕法下各稻区的逐步回归模型和BP神经网络模型的预测值、回归拟合值、平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)和均方误差(mean square error,MSE)后,灯诱法下四川主要稻区的BP神经网络模型预测精准度较好,对成都平原稻区、川东稻区和川南稻区的回归拟合值分别稳定在78.65%~99.59%、92.38%~99.88%和76.97%~99.96%之间。2023年灯诱虫量用于BP神经网络模型独立检验的结果表明,大部分稻区在该模型下的预测值与实际诱集量基本一致。【结论】灯诱法下的BP神经网络模型比逐步回归有更好的预测和拟合效果。

基于RIME-CNN-SVR模型的麦田土壤水分反演

土壤水分监测对于农业生产和作物产量预估具有重要意义。近年来深度学习技术在土壤水分反演领域得到广泛应用,但大多侧重于模型结构增强和优化,对模型超参数优化研究探索不足。该研究提出了一种基于霜冰优化算法(rime optimization algorithm,RIME)的卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)超参数优化模型,结合极化分解技术来校正植被对土壤水分反演精度的影响,以提高冬小麦农田土壤水分反演性能。首先利用RIME优化CNN超参数以构建RIME-CNN模型,然后使用RIME-CNN模型对特征参数进行自适应提取和挖掘,之后对这些特征参数进行正则化处理并输入到支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)模型,构建RIME-CNN-SVR模型进行土壤水分估算。为验证所建RIME-CNN-SVR模型的有效性,利用合成孔径雷达(synthetic aperture radar,SAR)数据结合光学遥感数据,在河南省开封市冬小麦农田区进行试验验证和精度分析。结果表明,该方法在不增加模型结构复杂性和可学习参数的前提下,显著提升了模型的预测性能,决定系数可达0.72,均方根误差为2.78%,平均绝对误差为2.20%。该研究可为农业生产提供一个更为准确、可靠的土壤水分监测手段。

基于ARIMA-IPOA-CNN-LSTM的太湖水体溶解氧浓度预测模型

为了提高太湖水体中溶解氧浓度(DOC)参数的预测准确性,设计了一种基于ARIMA-IPOA-CNN-LSTM的预测模型。首先,采用差分自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)捕捉数据的时间序列趋势和季节性特征;其次,引入卷积神经网络(CNN)和长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型,分别从数据中学习空间和时间特征;再次,提出了一种改进的鹈鹕优化算法(IPOA)来优化模型参数,算法增加了Logistic混沌映射种群初始化、反向差分进化、萤火虫扰动的方法,CEC2005函数的测试结果显著优于传统鹈鹕优化算法;最后,将“剪枝”模型部署于STM32嵌入式设备。试验结果表明,在溶解氧浓度预测方面,该模型具有高的准确性和鲁棒性,为水环境保护提供了一种高效、可靠的解决方案。

基于PSO-GRNN的含钛高炉渣活化焙烧浸出成分预测模型

活化焙烧是一种回收利用含钛高炉渣中钛资源的新方法。为通过反应条件快速获得回收渣中成分含量,建立了基于粒子群优化的广义回归神经网络(PSO-GRNN)预测模型。借助斯皮尔曼(Spearman)相关性分析筛选特征变量作为模型输入,利用PSO优化GRNN神经网络的权重与节点阈值,通过与偏最小二乘回归(PLS)、随机森林(RF)以及支持向量回归(SVR)算法的对比,确定了提出模型的优势。研究结果表明,PSO-GRNN具有最小的RMSE和最大的R2,表明在该数据集上所设计的PSO-GRNN有最佳的模型性能,可以为后续实验或工业应用提供一定的指导。

基于PSO-GRNN的大跨桥梁有限元模型修正方法

为了对大跨桥梁的有限元模型进行高精度修正,提出了一种基于粒子群算法-广义回归神经网络(PSO-GRNN)的方法.该方法采用广义回归神经网络(GRNN)来描述有限元模型输出与待修正参数之间的复杂非线性映射关系,利用粒子群(PSO)算法对GRNN的光滑因子进行优化.采用一座大跨钢箱梁悬索桥的有限元模型对提出的修正方法进行了验证.研究结果表明:经过PSO优化后的GRNN能够更加准确地描述频率-待修正参数之间的非线性关系,预测误差显著减小;相比于误差反向传播(BP)神经网络方法,GRNN方法和PSO-GRNN方法修正后的频率误差更小;由于PSO的优化,PSO-GRNN方法修正后的频率误差进一步减小,最大误差不超过5%;基于PSO-GRNN的修正方法可广泛用于各种大跨桥梁有限元模型的修正.

基于SSA-GRNN的汽油机过渡工况进气流量预测研究

针对过渡工况下汽油机进气流量预测难度较高的问题,构建了一种基于麻雀搜索算法(SSA)优化广义回归神经网络(GRNN)的进气流量预测模型。该模型利用SSA算法对GRNN的平滑因子进行寻优辨识,并采用斯皮尔曼法和对比分析法提取模型的特征参数,以达到较好的预测精度和泛化性能。运用过渡工况进气流量样本数据对模型进行训练和预测,结果表明:在加减速工况下,SSA-GRNN模型预测值的平均相对误差均小于1%;相较于BP、RBF和GA-SVR进气流量预测模型,SSA-GRNN模型具有更高的预测精度和泛化性能,更加适用于汽油机过渡工况进气流量的预测。

Short-term Load Forecasting of Regional Distribution Network Based on Generalized Regression Neural Network Optimized by Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

Short-term load forecasting of regional distribution network is the key to the economic operation of smart distribution systems,which not only requires high accuracy and fast calculation speed,but also has a diversity of influential factors and strong randomness.This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting model for regional distribution network combining the maximum information coefficient,factor analysis,gray wolf optimization,and generalized regression neural network(MIC-FA-GWO-GRNN).To screen and decrease the dimension of the multiple-input features of the short-term load forecasting model,MIC is first used to quantify the non-linear correlation between the load and input features,and to eliminate the ineffective features,and then FA is used to reduce the dimension of the screened input features on the premise of preserving the main information of input features.After that the high-precision short-term丨oad forecasting based on GWO-GRNN model is realized.GRNN is used to regressively analyze the input features after screening and dimension reduction,and the parameter of GRNN is optimized by using the GWO,which has strong global searching ability and fast convergence.Finally a case study of a regional distribution network in Tianjin,China verifies the accuracy and applicability of the proposed forecasting model.

基于果蝇算法的永磁同步电机多目标优化设计

为了提高永磁同步电机(PMSM)的性能,本文以一台72槽60极永磁同步电机为例,针对永磁同步电机多目标优化过程中多次有限元迭代导致的计算时间长和优化效率低的问题,提出了一种基于果蝇优化算法(FOA)的多目标优化方法。选取磁钢尺寸作为优化变量,以电机平均转矩、转矩波动和齿槽转矩作为优化目标,采用权重系数的多目标优化函数。首先通过有限元仿真获得各变量的样本空间,其次采用广义回归神经网络(GRNN)对仿真数据集进行拟合训练,得到非线性模型,然后运用FOA进行优化。最后,通过有限元仿真分析,结果表明FOA能有效抑制转矩波动以及增大平均转矩,且具有参数设置少、收敛速度快等优点,具有较好的应用价值。

基于LASSO-ASAPSO-LSTM的双曲拱坝缺失位移数据恢复

由于设备故障或无线传输过程中的数据包丢失等原因,存在数据缺失现象,导致大坝的安全评估无法得到保障。为此,提出了一种基于深度学习的双曲拱坝缺失位移数据恢复模型,采用最小绝对值收缩和选择算子法(LASSO回归算法)从建立的18个大坝位移影响因子中筛选出影响较为显著的环境因子;基于长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)搭建了大坝缺失数据恢复模型;采用自适应模拟退火粒子群算法(ASAPSO)对LSTM的3个超参数进行了优化;最后,依托湖南省资兴市东江大坝累计14年(2000~2014年)的监测数据,对所提方法的计算精度和计算效率进行了验证。结果表明,ASAPSO的引入使该模型的恢复精度和效率优于常规的机器学习算法,为大坝安全监测缺失数据的准确恢复提供了有力工具。