Background:As the elderly population grows,the demand for long-term care services is increasing.Despite significant investments in care quality and workforce training,long-term care workers often face challenges such ...Background:As the elderly population grows,the demand for long-term care services is increasing.Despite significant investments in care quality and workforce training,long-term care workers often face challenges such as work fatigue,heavy workloads,and inadequate support.These issues can impact job satisfaction,mental health,and care quality,leading to staff turnover.This study examines how optimism,social support,and psychological resilience relate to caregiving burden,aiming to understand their effects on caregivers’well-being and performance to enhance the quality of long-term care services.Methods:The participants were 542 long-term care workers.Descriptive statistics,t-tests,one-way ANOVA,and hierarchical regression were used for data analysis.Results:(1)Optimism and social support were significantly and positively correlated with psychological resilience and significantly and negatively associated with caregiving burden.(2)Regarding differences in optimism,social support,psychological resilience,and caregiving burden among long-term care workers,females scored significantly higher than males in“social support;”married workers scored significantly higher than unmarried workers in“optimism,”“social support,”and“psychological resilience”;workers aged 45–65 scored significantly higher than those aged 25–45 in“optimism”;workers aged 25–45 scored significantly higher than those aged 45–65 in“caregiving burden”;social workers scored significantly higher than nursing staff in“optimism.”(3)Psychological resilience partially mediated the relationship between social support and caregiving burden concerning explanatory and predictive power.Conclusions:These findings suggest that optimism,social support,and psychological resilience are essential factors in reducing the caregiving burden among long-term care workers.The study highlights the importance of promoting psychological resilience and providing social support to alleviate the burden of caregiving.展开更多
Crossing Brookly Ferry is one of the most representative masterpieces composed by Walt Wiltman. In this pieces of writing, ones of the characteristics in this poem: optimism and unconventionality in its form are expre...Crossing Brookly Ferry is one of the most representative masterpieces composed by Walt Wiltman. In this pieces of writing, ones of the characteristics in this poem: optimism and unconventionality in its form are expressed in details.展开更多
Background and Objective: Individuals apply various emotion regulation strategies, some of which are adaptive and others are maladaptive affecting people’s general health. Moreover, individual life-orientation includ...Background and Objective: Individuals apply various emotion regulation strategies, some of which are adaptive and others are maladaptive affecting people’s general health. Moreover, individual life-orientation including favorable expectancies about future (optimism) is associated with health-related behaviors. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship of optimism and emotion regulation strategies with general health of university students. Materials and Methods: This was a correlational study. In this regard, 182 students of University of Sistan and Baluchestan (70 males and 112 females) were chosen. The statistical population of the present study consisted of all undergraduate students of the university of Sistan and Baluchestan in the second semester of the 2009-2010 academic year. Considering the nature of the current study, the correlational method was applied. Based on Krejcie and Morgan’s table, a sample of 200 subjects was selected from students majored at different fields including human sciences, basic sciences and technical-engineering through applying multi-stage random sampling method. Eighteen incomplete questionnaire forms were excluded. Finally, data obtained from 182 subjects (112 females, 70 males) were analyzed. The mean age was 21.1 year-old and standard deviation of the sample was 2.06. Samplings were assessed using the Revised Life-Orientation Test (LOT-R), Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ) and General Health-28 Questionnaire (GHQ-28). Data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis. Results: Findings showed that there was a significant positive relationship between optimism and general health (r = 0.22, p < 0.01). Among all research variables, i.e. optimism and emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression), only optimism was able to predict 0.06 percent of variance of general health (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Optimists have higher general health and consistent with other findings, optimism is associated with higher levels of applying coping strategies and lower levels of avoidance.展开更多
Fuzzy numbers are convenient for representing imprecise numerical quantities in a vague environment, and their comparison or ranking is very important for application purposes. Despite many methods suggested in the li...Fuzzy numbers are convenient for representing imprecise numerical quantities in a vague environment, and their comparison or ranking is very important for application purposes. Despite many methods suggested in the literature, there is no single measure that is universally applicable to a wide variety of situations. This paper suggested a new method for comparing fuzzy numbers based on the combination of maximizing possibility and minimizing possibility using an index of optimism in [0,1] reflecting the decision makers’ risk taking attitude. The method is simple, but has many comparative advantages.展开更多
This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples,constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention,and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention,analyst op...This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples,constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention,and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention,analyst optimism,and stock price crash risk.The results indicated that investor attention aggravates the stock price crash risk and has a positive effect on analyst optimism.Meanwhile,the analyst optimism plays a mediating role in the positive correlation between investor attention and stock price crash risk.In addition to that,institutional investor attention also has direct and indirect effects on the crash risk.展开更多
Behavioral finance is a field that is scrutinizing the adequacy of traditional financial theories using insights from the disciplines of psychology and sociology. Many studies within its realm test the stock market be...Behavioral finance is a field that is scrutinizing the adequacy of traditional financial theories using insights from the disciplines of psychology and sociology. Many studies within its realm test the stock market behaviors, and behavioral phenomena are still to be tested in the area of corporate finance. This study aims to contribute to the behavioral corporate finance literature by a research in one of the psychological phenomena affecting the decision makers' abilities to reach conclusions rationally. In this study, it is aimed to investigate one of the biases, namely, the optimism bias in corporate capital budgeting decisions. Optimism in decision making can be associated with estimating lower costs and higher revenues. Thus, by assessing the forecasts of decision makers, the existence of optimism in their decisions is tried to be seen. This study aims at contributing to the literature in that it is conducted in an emerging country like Turkey.展开更多
Cyber threats and risks are increasing exponentially with time. For preventing and defense against these threats and risks, precise risk perception for effective mitigation is the first step. Risk perception is necess...Cyber threats and risks are increasing exponentially with time. For preventing and defense against these threats and risks, precise risk perception for effective mitigation is the first step. Risk perception is necessary requirement to mitigate risk as it drives the security strategy at the organizational level and human attitude at individual level. Sometime, individuals understand there is a risk that a negative event or incident can occur, but they do not believe there will be a personal impact if the risk comes to realization but instead, they believe that the negative event will impact others. This belief supports the common belief that individuals tend to think of themselves as invulnerable, i.e., optimistically bias about the situation, thus affecting their attitude for taking preventive measures due to inappropriate risk perception or overconfidence. The main motivation of this meta-analysis is to assess that how the cyber optimistic bias or cyber optimism bias affects individual’s cyber security risk perception and how it changes their decisions. Applying a meta-analysis, this study found that optimistic bias has an overall negative impact on the cyber security due to the inappropriate risk perception and considering themselves invulnerable by biasing that the threat will not occur to them. Due to the cyber optimism bias, the individual will sometimes share passwords by considering it will not be maliciously used, lack in adopting of preventive measures, ignore security incidents, wrong perception of cyber threats and overconfidence on themselves in the context of cyber security.展开更多
The subjective well-being of the elderly is an integral part of healthy aging.This review introduces the concept of subjective well-being of the elderly and the evaluation tools used,reviews the influencing factors of...The subjective well-being of the elderly is an integral part of healthy aging.This review introduces the concept of subjective well-being of the elderly and the evaluation tools used,reviews the influencing factors of subjective well-being of the elderly,and summarizes the intervention measures of subjective well-being of the elderly.From the perspective of positive psychology,based on the introduction of the concept and evaluation tools of temperament optimism,this paper reviews the research status of temperament optimism and subjective well-being and the research progress of their correlation,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the intervention to improve the subjective well-being of the elderly.展开更多
Though facing challenges, the Chinese Government has kept a steady hand on the tiller and managed to sail the economy through the first half of 2016 relatively unscathed, sustaining steady economic growth and accelera...Though facing challenges, the Chinese Government has kept a steady hand on the tiller and managed to sail the economy through the first half of 2016 relatively unscathed, sustaining steady economic growth and accelerating economic transformation. According to a report recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth in the first half of 2016 was 6.7 percent year on year. A slowing growth rate, in relation to past stellar economic performance of around double-digit growth, has, however, given rise to ques- tions about the development trend of the world's second largest economy, What will be the highlights of the second half of the year? What will be the impact of China's economic growth on the global economy going forward? Renowned experts in this field believe there is much resilience and potential for China's economy to maintain a stable and healthy growth, Some of their views follow:展开更多
THE annual sessions of China’s National People’s Congress,the top legislature,and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference,the top political advisory body,held in Beijing in ...THE annual sessions of China’s National People’s Congress,the top legislature,and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference,the top political advisory body,held in Beijing in March left little doubt that their deliberations and resolutions will have global ramifications.展开更多
The development of adaptive emotion regulation(ER)plays a pivotal role in adolescent mental health and socio-emotional adaptation.Dispositional optimism,as an important protective factor for adolescent adjustment,may ...The development of adaptive emotion regulation(ER)plays a pivotal role in adolescent mental health and socio-emotional adaptation.Dispositional optimism,as an important protective factor for adolescent adjustment,may affect adolescent ER and subsequently influence adaptive outcomes.In this review,the changes and challenges,the role of ER in socio-emotional adjustment,and the developmental characteristics of implicit and explicit ER during adolescence are described.Subsequently,by employing the top-down model of personality,coping,and emotion,how dispositional optimism may affect psychological adjustment from the perspective of ER is analyzed.Furthermore,how the differences in adolescents’dispositional optimism may be reflected by the differences in implicit ER is discussed.Finally,recommendations for future research are outlined.展开更多
Reservoirs are installed as long-term assets to guarantee water and energy security for decades,if not centuries.However,the effect of siltation undermines reservoirs’sustainability because it significantly reduces t...Reservoirs are installed as long-term assets to guarantee water and energy security for decades,if not centuries.However,the effect of siltation undermines reservoirs’sustainability because it significantly reduces the reservoirs’original capacity.The present paper attempts to evaluate the global reservoir siltation problem with the optimism bias theorem introduced by Kahneman and Tversky and applied to infrastructural mega-projects by Flyvbjerg and Ansar using artificial neural networks(ANNs)algorithms for large Japanese reservoirs.Japan possesses suitable long-term data and a legal directive concerning the sediment capacity siltation duration,which serves as a valid guide to check whether,over the past 100 years,engineers,planners and managers were capable of judging the sediment input correctly.Various ANN models were established to emulate Japanese reservoir siltation behavior.The networks demonstrate that reservoirs in Japan suffer from optimism bias.In contrast to the law,the dead storage volume of an average dam is supposed to reach capacity after 52 years.This finding joins the overall observation that mega-projects generally and globally suffer from optimism bias.The emulations were subsequently screened for a presumed influence of governance actions,namely,indicating plus monitoring and the change in the market competition situation.While reservoir siltation appears to continue regardless of the level of competition in public procurement,monitoring directives appear to have a considerable impact on improved siltation management,which demonstrates that dedicated governance action can significantly strengthen the sustainable behavior of key infrastructure elements such as reservoirs.展开更多
This paper is an attempt to investigate the relationship between John Dewey's philosophy and Hu Shi's thought. It is argued that the reason for Flu Shi to be attracted by Dewey's philosophy lies in his special vers...This paper is an attempt to investigate the relationship between John Dewey's philosophy and Hu Shi's thought. It is argued that the reason for Flu Shi to be attracted by Dewey's philosophy lies in his special version of evolutionism, namely, it-is-up-to-us-ism. However, it is then argued clearly that their understandings of evolutionism are very different from each other and that it is just because of this difference that later Hu Shi's thought had to give way to Marxism in China. The first two parts tell us that John Dewey's philosophy, influenced by Hegel's philosophy and inspired by Darwin's evolutionary theory, is a critique of the traditional contemplative philosophy. It is about how to sustain our commitment to experience in the situation where the given End of life has been shattered, that is, it is the philosophy about democracy. The last two parts argue that Hu Shi did not derive this problem consciousness fi-om Dewey. He tried to insert Dewey's theory of intelligent inquiry into the special, Chinese version of evolutionism, it-is-up-to-us- ism. In this way, he did not see the key issue in Dewey's philosophy of democracy. This finally led to his inability to solve the problem of how to unify and motivate the Chinese people.展开更多
As stock index adjustments comprise a basic system of capital market,their potential influence on analysts’earnings forecasts is worthy of research.Based on a research sample of 23 adjustments to the CSI 300 Index fr...As stock index adjustments comprise a basic system of capital market,their potential influence on analysts’earnings forecasts is worthy of research.Based on a research sample of 23 adjustments to the CSI 300 Index from June 2007 to June 2018 and the backup stocks announced during the same period,this study examines the impact of additions to stock index on analysts’forecast optimism using a staggered difference-in-differences model.The research results show that after stocks are added to the stock index,analysts’earnings forecast optimism about these stocks increases significantly.Cross-sectional analysis indicates that this increase is more significant when the market is bullish,institutional ownership is low,the ratio of listed brokerage firms is low,star analyst coverage is low,firms show seasoned equity offering activity,the ratio of analysts from the top five brokerage firms ranked by commission income is high,and the analysts’brokerage firms are shareholders.However,analystlevel tests find that analysts’ability helps to reduce the impact of additions to stock index on earnings forecast optimism.Furthermore,additions to stock index significantly increase analyst coverage and forecast divergence.Economic consequences tests find additions to stock index significantly increases stock price synchronization,which is partly mediated by analysts’earnings forecast optimism.This study enriches the literature on the impact of basic capital market systems and analyst behavior.The findings suggest that investors should rationally evaluate analysts’earnings forecasts for stocks added to the stock index and obtain further information from various channels to improve asset allocation efficiency.展开更多
Experts hopeful about China’s economic prospects and trade talks with the U.S.With Chinese and U.S. offi cials holding trade talks in Beijing earlier in January andChineseVicePremierLiuHe scheduled to continue the di...Experts hopeful about China’s economic prospects and trade talks with the U.S.With Chinese and U.S. offi cials holding trade talks in Beijing earlier in January andChineseVicePremierLiuHe scheduled to continue the discussions in Washington, D.C. at January end, panelists at an event in New York were optimistic that a trade agreement would be reached between the world’s two largest economies.展开更多
Wu Poh-hsiung, Chairman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang, visited the Chinese mainland on May 26-31,at the invitation of Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. During their meeti...Wu Poh-hsiung, Chairman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang, visited the Chinese mainland on May 26-31,at the invitation of Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. During their meeting on May 28, the two leaders reached consensus on strengthening exchanges and promoting mutual trust across the Taiwan Straits. Li Jiaquan and Sun Shengliang,researchers at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, published articles on the meeting between Hu and Wu, projecting an optimistic future for cross-straits relations.展开更多
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its report on China’s first-quarter economic performance on April 18, amid similar forecasts by major research institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Social Scien...The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its report on China’s first-quarter economic performance on April 18, amid similar forecasts by major research institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the展开更多
Ever since January 14 when the Chinese Government unveiled plans to revamp the steel and automobile sectors, the country has embarked on an ambitious and comprehensive scheme of restructuring some of its key industrie...Ever since January 14 when the Chinese Government unveiled plans to revamp the steel and automobile sectors, the country has embarked on an ambitious and comprehensive scheme of restructuring some of its key industries. This was done in an effort to keep the economy on track amid an adverse economic situation. Eight other sectors have been added into this revitalization package, ranging from electronics and information technologies to textiles, shipbuilding and petrochemicals,展开更多
文摘Background:As the elderly population grows,the demand for long-term care services is increasing.Despite significant investments in care quality and workforce training,long-term care workers often face challenges such as work fatigue,heavy workloads,and inadequate support.These issues can impact job satisfaction,mental health,and care quality,leading to staff turnover.This study examines how optimism,social support,and psychological resilience relate to caregiving burden,aiming to understand their effects on caregivers’well-being and performance to enhance the quality of long-term care services.Methods:The participants were 542 long-term care workers.Descriptive statistics,t-tests,one-way ANOVA,and hierarchical regression were used for data analysis.Results:(1)Optimism and social support were significantly and positively correlated with psychological resilience and significantly and negatively associated with caregiving burden.(2)Regarding differences in optimism,social support,psychological resilience,and caregiving burden among long-term care workers,females scored significantly higher than males in“social support;”married workers scored significantly higher than unmarried workers in“optimism,”“social support,”and“psychological resilience”;workers aged 45–65 scored significantly higher than those aged 25–45 in“optimism”;workers aged 25–45 scored significantly higher than those aged 45–65 in“caregiving burden”;social workers scored significantly higher than nursing staff in“optimism.”(3)Psychological resilience partially mediated the relationship between social support and caregiving burden concerning explanatory and predictive power.Conclusions:These findings suggest that optimism,social support,and psychological resilience are essential factors in reducing the caregiving burden among long-term care workers.The study highlights the importance of promoting psychological resilience and providing social support to alleviate the burden of caregiving.
文摘Crossing Brookly Ferry is one of the most representative masterpieces composed by Walt Wiltman. In this pieces of writing, ones of the characteristics in this poem: optimism and unconventionality in its form are expressed in details.
文摘Background and Objective: Individuals apply various emotion regulation strategies, some of which are adaptive and others are maladaptive affecting people’s general health. Moreover, individual life-orientation including favorable expectancies about future (optimism) is associated with health-related behaviors. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship of optimism and emotion regulation strategies with general health of university students. Materials and Methods: This was a correlational study. In this regard, 182 students of University of Sistan and Baluchestan (70 males and 112 females) were chosen. The statistical population of the present study consisted of all undergraduate students of the university of Sistan and Baluchestan in the second semester of the 2009-2010 academic year. Considering the nature of the current study, the correlational method was applied. Based on Krejcie and Morgan’s table, a sample of 200 subjects was selected from students majored at different fields including human sciences, basic sciences and technical-engineering through applying multi-stage random sampling method. Eighteen incomplete questionnaire forms were excluded. Finally, data obtained from 182 subjects (112 females, 70 males) were analyzed. The mean age was 21.1 year-old and standard deviation of the sample was 2.06. Samplings were assessed using the Revised Life-Orientation Test (LOT-R), Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ) and General Health-28 Questionnaire (GHQ-28). Data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and regression analysis. Results: Findings showed that there was a significant positive relationship between optimism and general health (r = 0.22, p < 0.01). Among all research variables, i.e. optimism and emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression), only optimism was able to predict 0.06 percent of variance of general health (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Optimists have higher general health and consistent with other findings, optimism is associated with higher levels of applying coping strategies and lower levels of avoidance.
文摘Fuzzy numbers are convenient for representing imprecise numerical quantities in a vague environment, and their comparison or ranking is very important for application purposes. Despite many methods suggested in the literature, there is no single measure that is universally applicable to a wide variety of situations. This paper suggested a new method for comparing fuzzy numbers based on the combination of maximizing possibility and minimizing possibility using an index of optimism in [0,1] reflecting the decision makers’ risk taking attitude. The method is simple, but has many comparative advantages.
文摘This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples,constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention,and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention,analyst optimism,and stock price crash risk.The results indicated that investor attention aggravates the stock price crash risk and has a positive effect on analyst optimism.Meanwhile,the analyst optimism plays a mediating role in the positive correlation between investor attention and stock price crash risk.In addition to that,institutional investor attention also has direct and indirect effects on the crash risk.
文摘Behavioral finance is a field that is scrutinizing the adequacy of traditional financial theories using insights from the disciplines of psychology and sociology. Many studies within its realm test the stock market behaviors, and behavioral phenomena are still to be tested in the area of corporate finance. This study aims to contribute to the behavioral corporate finance literature by a research in one of the psychological phenomena affecting the decision makers' abilities to reach conclusions rationally. In this study, it is aimed to investigate one of the biases, namely, the optimism bias in corporate capital budgeting decisions. Optimism in decision making can be associated with estimating lower costs and higher revenues. Thus, by assessing the forecasts of decision makers, the existence of optimism in their decisions is tried to be seen. This study aims at contributing to the literature in that it is conducted in an emerging country like Turkey.
文摘Cyber threats and risks are increasing exponentially with time. For preventing and defense against these threats and risks, precise risk perception for effective mitigation is the first step. Risk perception is necessary requirement to mitigate risk as it drives the security strategy at the organizational level and human attitude at individual level. Sometime, individuals understand there is a risk that a negative event or incident can occur, but they do not believe there will be a personal impact if the risk comes to realization but instead, they believe that the negative event will impact others. This belief supports the common belief that individuals tend to think of themselves as invulnerable, i.e., optimistically bias about the situation, thus affecting their attitude for taking preventive measures due to inappropriate risk perception or overconfidence. The main motivation of this meta-analysis is to assess that how the cyber optimistic bias or cyber optimism bias affects individual’s cyber security risk perception and how it changes their decisions. Applying a meta-analysis, this study found that optimistic bias has an overall negative impact on the cyber security due to the inappropriate risk perception and considering themselves invulnerable by biasing that the threat will not occur to them. Due to the cyber optimism bias, the individual will sometimes share passwords by considering it will not be maliciously used, lack in adopting of preventive measures, ignore security incidents, wrong perception of cyber threats and overconfidence on themselves in the context of cyber security.
文摘The subjective well-being of the elderly is an integral part of healthy aging.This review introduces the concept of subjective well-being of the elderly and the evaluation tools used,reviews the influencing factors of subjective well-being of the elderly,and summarizes the intervention measures of subjective well-being of the elderly.From the perspective of positive psychology,based on the introduction of the concept and evaluation tools of temperament optimism,this paper reviews the research status of temperament optimism and subjective well-being and the research progress of their correlation,so as to provide a theoretical basis for the intervention to improve the subjective well-being of the elderly.
文摘Though facing challenges, the Chinese Government has kept a steady hand on the tiller and managed to sail the economy through the first half of 2016 relatively unscathed, sustaining steady economic growth and accelerating economic transformation. According to a report recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP growth in the first half of 2016 was 6.7 percent year on year. A slowing growth rate, in relation to past stellar economic performance of around double-digit growth, has, however, given rise to ques- tions about the development trend of the world's second largest economy, What will be the highlights of the second half of the year? What will be the impact of China's economic growth on the global economy going forward? Renowned experts in this field believe there is much resilience and potential for China's economy to maintain a stable and healthy growth, Some of their views follow:
文摘THE annual sessions of China’s National People’s Congress,the top legislature,and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference,the top political advisory body,held in Beijing in March left little doubt that their deliberations and resolutions will have global ramifications.
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31971018)Institute of Psychology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.GJ202001)+2 种基金Educational Science Planning Project of Hubei Province(Grant No.2020GB056)the Research Fund Project(Grant No.2021Z01)the East Lake Scholar Program of Wuhan Sports University,China(Period:July 2017-July 2022)
文摘The development of adaptive emotion regulation(ER)plays a pivotal role in adolescent mental health and socio-emotional adaptation.Dispositional optimism,as an important protective factor for adolescent adjustment,may affect adolescent ER and subsequently influence adaptive outcomes.In this review,the changes and challenges,the role of ER in socio-emotional adjustment,and the developmental characteristics of implicit and explicit ER during adolescence are described.Subsequently,by employing the top-down model of personality,coping,and emotion,how dispositional optimism may affect psychological adjustment from the perspective of ER is analyzed.Furthermore,how the differences in adolescents’dispositional optimism may be reflected by the differences in implicit ER is discussed.Finally,recommendations for future research are outlined.
基金This work was supported by the Sievert Stiftung fur Wissenschaft und KulturJapanese Society for the Promotion of Science[PE18737].
文摘Reservoirs are installed as long-term assets to guarantee water and energy security for decades,if not centuries.However,the effect of siltation undermines reservoirs’sustainability because it significantly reduces the reservoirs’original capacity.The present paper attempts to evaluate the global reservoir siltation problem with the optimism bias theorem introduced by Kahneman and Tversky and applied to infrastructural mega-projects by Flyvbjerg and Ansar using artificial neural networks(ANNs)algorithms for large Japanese reservoirs.Japan possesses suitable long-term data and a legal directive concerning the sediment capacity siltation duration,which serves as a valid guide to check whether,over the past 100 years,engineers,planners and managers were capable of judging the sediment input correctly.Various ANN models were established to emulate Japanese reservoir siltation behavior.The networks demonstrate that reservoirs in Japan suffer from optimism bias.In contrast to the law,the dead storage volume of an average dam is supposed to reach capacity after 52 years.This finding joins the overall observation that mega-projects generally and globally suffer from optimism bias.The emulations were subsequently screened for a presumed influence of governance actions,namely,indicating plus monitoring and the change in the market competition situation.While reservoir siltation appears to continue regardless of the level of competition in public procurement,monitoring directives appear to have a considerable impact on improved siltation management,which demonstrates that dedicated governance action can significantly strengthen the sustainable behavior of key infrastructure elements such as reservoirs.
文摘This paper is an attempt to investigate the relationship between John Dewey's philosophy and Hu Shi's thought. It is argued that the reason for Flu Shi to be attracted by Dewey's philosophy lies in his special version of evolutionism, namely, it-is-up-to-us-ism. However, it is then argued clearly that their understandings of evolutionism are very different from each other and that it is just because of this difference that later Hu Shi's thought had to give way to Marxism in China. The first two parts tell us that John Dewey's philosophy, influenced by Hegel's philosophy and inspired by Darwin's evolutionary theory, is a critique of the traditional contemplative philosophy. It is about how to sustain our commitment to experience in the situation where the given End of life has been shattered, that is, it is the philosophy about democracy. The last two parts argue that Hu Shi did not derive this problem consciousness fi-om Dewey. He tried to insert Dewey's theory of intelligent inquiry into the special, Chinese version of evolutionism, it-is-up-to-us- ism. In this way, he did not see the key issue in Dewey's philosophy of democracy. This finally led to his inability to solve the problem of how to unify and motivate the Chinese people.
基金the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71872196,71402198,71872199)National Social Science Foundation of China(19ZDA098)+1 种基金MOE Project of Humanities and Social Sciences of China(19YJA790032)the Beijing Social Foundation of China(15JGC176,20JJB015)
文摘As stock index adjustments comprise a basic system of capital market,their potential influence on analysts’earnings forecasts is worthy of research.Based on a research sample of 23 adjustments to the CSI 300 Index from June 2007 to June 2018 and the backup stocks announced during the same period,this study examines the impact of additions to stock index on analysts’forecast optimism using a staggered difference-in-differences model.The research results show that after stocks are added to the stock index,analysts’earnings forecast optimism about these stocks increases significantly.Cross-sectional analysis indicates that this increase is more significant when the market is bullish,institutional ownership is low,the ratio of listed brokerage firms is low,star analyst coverage is low,firms show seasoned equity offering activity,the ratio of analysts from the top five brokerage firms ranked by commission income is high,and the analysts’brokerage firms are shareholders.However,analystlevel tests find that analysts’ability helps to reduce the impact of additions to stock index on earnings forecast optimism.Furthermore,additions to stock index significantly increase analyst coverage and forecast divergence.Economic consequences tests find additions to stock index significantly increases stock price synchronization,which is partly mediated by analysts’earnings forecast optimism.This study enriches the literature on the impact of basic capital market systems and analyst behavior.The findings suggest that investors should rationally evaluate analysts’earnings forecasts for stocks added to the stock index and obtain further information from various channels to improve asset allocation efficiency.
文摘Experts hopeful about China’s economic prospects and trade talks with the U.S.With Chinese and U.S. offi cials holding trade talks in Beijing earlier in January andChineseVicePremierLiuHe scheduled to continue the discussions in Washington, D.C. at January end, panelists at an event in New York were optimistic that a trade agreement would be reached between the world’s two largest economies.
文摘Wu Poh-hsiung, Chairman of Taiwan’s Kuomintang, visited the Chinese mainland on May 26-31,at the invitation of Hu Jintao, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. During their meeting on May 28, the two leaders reached consensus on strengthening exchanges and promoting mutual trust across the Taiwan Straits. Li Jiaquan and Sun Shengliang,researchers at the Institute of Taiwan Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, published articles on the meeting between Hu and Wu, projecting an optimistic future for cross-straits relations.
文摘The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its report on China’s first-quarter economic performance on April 18, amid similar forecasts by major research institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the
文摘Ever since January 14 when the Chinese Government unveiled plans to revamp the steel and automobile sectors, the country has embarked on an ambitious and comprehensive scheme of restructuring some of its key industries. This was done in an effort to keep the economy on track amid an adverse economic situation. Eight other sectors have been added into this revitalization package, ranging from electronics and information technologies to textiles, shipbuilding and petrochemicals,