China's Optimal Industrial Structure:Theoretical Model and Econometric Estimation

With analysis of producer's and factor supplier's dual optimization motives,this paper developed an optimal nominal output growth rate model that can conduct quantified estimation.Result of estimation of China's optimal industrial structure between1992 and 2009 indicates that optimal nominal output growth rate model has successfully quantified the impact of major events occurring in the process of China's economic operation on the level of deviation between actual industrial structure and optimal industrial structure.Quantitative indicators involved in this model can provide industrial policy instruments for the Chinese government in developing and adjusting industrial structure targets,optimizing resource allocation and advancing industrial structure optimization and upgrade.

Embodied energy consumption and carbon emissions evaluation for urban industrial structure optimization

Cities are the main material processors asso- ciated with industrialization. The development of urban production based on fossil fuels is the major contributor to the rise of greenhouse gas density, and to global warming. The concept of urban industrial structure optimization is considered to be a solution to urban sustainable develop- ment and global climate issues. Enforcing energy con- servation and reducing carbon emissions are playing key roles in addressing these issues. As such, quantitative accounting and the evaluation of energy consumption and corresponding carbon emissions, which are by-products of urban production, are critical, in order to discover potential opportunities to save energy and to reduce emissions. Conventional evaluation indicators, such as ＂energy consumption per unit output value＂ and ＂emissions per unit output value＂, are concerned with immediate consumptions and emissions; while the indirect consump- tions and emissions that occur throughout the supply chain are ignored. This does not support the optimization of the overall urban industrial system. To present a systematic evaluation framework for cities, this study constructs new evaluation indicators, based on the concepts of ＂embodied energy＂ and ＂embodied carbon emissions＂, which take both the immediate and indirect effects of energy consumption and emissions into account. Taking Beijing as a case, conventional evaluation indicators are compared with the newly constructed ones. Results show that the energy consumption and emissions of urban industries are represented better by the new indicators than by conventional indicators, and provide useful information for urban industrial structure optimization.