基于混合冗余策略的k-out-of-n:G系统可靠性优化模型

很多对可靠性要求极高的系统通常被设计成k-out-of-n:G结构,然而对该类系统的可靠性优化是一个相当困难的问题。为进一步扩展模型的适用性,提出一种采用混合冗余策略的可靠性优化新模型。该模型首次在k-out-of-n:G系统的可靠性优化中引入混合冗余策略,可以为每个子系统选择(积极、冷备份或混合)冗余策略中的任何一个。首先,基于连续时间马尔可夫链为k-out-of-n:G系统建立精确计算系统可靠性的数学模型。其次,提出一个冗余分配问题和一个工程案例问题,并设计一种伪并行遗传算法进行求解。最后,为评估新模型的性能,通过对提出的两个问题进行数值分析来评估新模型的性能。实验证明,相比以往模型研究,所提新模型得到更高的系统可靠性值,具有良好的应用前景。

手术室护士对Time out程序认知和态度的质性研究

目的:深入了解手术室护士对Time out程序认知和态度,并对Time out程序的执行提供建议。方法:采用现象学研究法,于2021年8月—2021年10月对14名手术室护士进行半结构访谈,采用Colaizzi 7步分析法对资料进行分析,提炼主题。结果:执行Time out程序的意义有促进手术安全、减轻护士工作压力、优化手术流程;执行Time out程序的障碍因素有手术医生不配合、担心耽误手术进度、缺乏Time out程序正确认知;执行Time out程序的相关建议有展开相关宣教、争取管理层支持、采用多方式提醒。结论:建议医院对手术团队展开相关宣教,并争取管理层支持以期提高Time out程序执行率。

k-out-of-n系统机会维护与库存控制多层级优化策略

面向服务型制造的复杂系统维护外包决策需求,针对k-out-of-n:G系统中冗余设备干涉、停机惩罚高昂和备件库存限制的挑战,提出了机会维护与库存控制多层级优化策略(OMICP).在设备层,构建各独立设备衰退模型,通过最小化维护成本率,贯序输出各设备预防维护周期;在系统层,以各设备维护时点为契机,综合考虑库存水平、关停数量和冗余干涉,制定动态组合机会维护策略;在联合层,基于机会维护决策反馈,建模分析备件订购利润结余,制定实时更新库存控制策略.通过服务商承担外包维护下的多层级交互决策,整合复杂系统维护与库存控制耦合关系,优化维护外包服务总成本.算例分析证明,所提OMICP具有复杂决策可行性和成本优化有效性.

Base-out恢复点为目标手术量的急性共同性内斜视治疗效果分析

目的:探讨Base-out恢复点为目标手术量的急性共同性内斜视(AACE)治疗效果。方法:收治60例AACE患者,对患者进行Base-out恢复点为目标手术量的治疗干预。对比手术效果、Base-out恢复点参数、立体视觉恢复及影响因素。结果:术后左眼、右眼近视屈光度高于术前,术后近距、远距斜视度低于术前(P<0.05)。术后Base-out恢复点近距、远距均低于术前,术后的BI恢复点包括近距、远距高于术前(P<0.05)。结论:AACE患者采用基于Base-out恢复点为目标手术量有较好的治疗效果,改善立体视觉功能。

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷三叠系百口泉组储层特征及油气成藏规律

通过岩心分析测试、地震厚度预测、包裹体成藏期次分析以及源储配置关系研究,对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷三叠系百口泉组储层特征及油气成藏规律进行了刻画。研究结果表明:①玛湖凹陷斜坡区三叠系百口泉组主要发育扇三角洲沉积,岩性普遍较粗,相对优质的储集层主要分布于扇三角洲前缘水下分流河道微相及少量河口砂坝微相中,其成分以长石岩屑砂砾岩为主,其次为岩屑砂砾岩。岩石普遍较致密。岩心孔隙度为3.17%~23.40%,平均为9.04%,渗透率为0.01~934.00mD,平均为0.73mD,属低孔特低渗型储集层。储集空间类型以次生溶孔为主,可见粒间缝和其他微裂缝。②研究区油气主要来源于下二叠统风城组碱湖沉积的泥页岩,最厚处超过400m,为残留海—潟湖相沉积,水体盐度较高,岩性以云质泥岩和泥质岩为主。有机质类型以Ⅰ和Ⅱ1型为主,总有机碳含量(TOC)多大于1.0%,生烃潜量(S1+S2)多大于6.0mg/g,氯仿沥青“A”平均为0.2%,HI平均为322mg/g,有机质演化处于成熟阶段,为中等—好烃源岩。③研究区具有3期成藏特征,晚三叠世之前为第1期油气充注,未能聚集成藏,早侏罗世为第2期油气充注期,对应黄色荧光烃类包裹体;早—中白垩世为第3期油气充注期,对应蓝白色荧光烃类包裹体,后2期油气充注对百口泉组油气成藏起主要贡献作用。④研究区源储配置紧密性是导致玛湖西斜坡和玛湖东斜坡油气差异性聚集的核心要素。

地浸砂岩型铀矿松散岩层单动双管取心钻具的研制与试验

为解决单管钻具取心工艺方法在深部目的层/矿层等松散岩层取心中存在的取心质量差、取心效率低和操作难度大的问题,开展了地浸砂岩型铀矿松散岩层单动双管钻具的研制和试验。通过设计和改进单动机构、断心结构、液力退心机构和快拆机构,研制了两类分别具有可直接液力退心和快速拆卸功能的SD型单动双管钻具。试验结果表明:SD110型双管钻具可在免拆内管的情况下实现地表快速液力退心,提高双管钻具退心效率;SDKC110型钻具可快速拆装更换内管,实现退心和钻进平行作业。与单管钻具相比,SD系列单动双管钻具在松散岩层的平均回次长度提高28.62%,平均机械钻速提高11.61%;与常规单动双管钻具相比,退心操作时间降低了32.69%。SD系列单动双管钻具适用于在松散破碎地层进行取心钻进应用,可有效提高岩心采取效率和岩心质量。

Finite Element Analysis Study of Box Culvert Jacking-Out Construction under Existing Railway Line

To shorten the existing box culvert demolition construction period and ensure the normal operation of the railway, the jacking-out construction method was adopted. The ABAQUS finite element software was used to establish a three-dimensional model of the box culvert and soil body of the relying project, and three excavation thickness (0m, 1 m, 2 m) were used as the main variation parameters for numerical analysis and research, and the change law of the box culvert itself and soil body stress during the culvert jacking out process was obtained. The results show that the jacking force-displacement curves of the three working conditions can be divided into two stages, and the jacking force reaches the maximum value at the moment when the static friction turns into sliding friction at the end of the first stage. The stress distribution at the bottom slab of the box culvert in the jacking process is approximately normal, and the stress decreases with the increase of the roadbed excavation thickness. The increase of the roadbed excavation thickness can reduce the soil pressure on the side of the box culvert and effectively reduce the deformation of the roadbed in the jacking-out process. The deformation of the roadbed during the jacking process can be reduced by increasing the thickness of the roadbed excavation.

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of “Electron Go out Mosquito Small Lamp” in Disease Vector Mosquito Control Benin West Africa

In the context of mosquito control, a plethora of devices have been put on the market. The effectiveness of these devices is not always proven, but some have interesting principles that have the potential to be a good means of mosquito control. Among these interesting devices are the photonic traps. We have carried out nightly captures of mosquitoes on human baits in the presence and absence of the device. These captures were made during the rainy season in the localities of Zogbadjè and Mènontin. The captures were made under the same atmospheric conditions at the same locations at 5-day intervals. These captures were made twice per house, indoors and outdoors, with one blank capture without the device and one capture with the device. The captured mosquitoes were identified and classified by genus and their aggressiveness determined by calculating the biting rate. A total of 845 mosquitoes were captured during these captures with 296 mosquitoes captured indoors without the device and 132 mosquitoes with the device present. This represents a decrease of 55.40% in culicidae density. Furthermore, a significant decrease was observed in aggressiveness, from 49 to 22 bites per man per night (b/m/n) with the use of the device. This decrease is even more important for nocturnal species such as Anopheles spp. whose aggressiveness decreased by 90%. The present study confirms the effectiveness of the “Electron go out mosquito small lamp” in reducing Culicidae density and mosquito aggression even in the presence of chemotactic interference. However, this study was limited in time and focused only on the ability of the device to reduce mosquito numbers and did not assess its epidemiological efficacy. It is therefore important to extend the work to examine the influence of the use of this device on population health and the occurrence of mosquito-borne diseases, particularly malaria.

Propagation Characteristics of Ultrasonic Guided Waves in Grouted Rockbolt Systems with Bond Defects under Different Confining Conditions

A rockbolt acting in the rock mass is subjected to the combined action of the pull-out load and confining pressure, and the bond quality of the rockbolt directly affects the stability of the roadway and cavern. Therefore, in this study, confining pressure and pull-out load are applied to grouted rockbolt systems with bond defects by a numerical simulation method, and the rockbolt is detected by ultrasonic guided waves to study the propagation law of ultrasonic guided waves in defective rockbolt systems and the bond quality of rockbolts under the combined action of pull-out load and confining pressure. The numerical simulation results show that the length and location of bond defects can be detected by ultrasonic guided waves under the combined action of pull-out load and confining pressure. Under no pull-out load, with increasing confining pressure, the low-frequency part of the guided wave frequency in the rockbolt increases, the high-frequency part decreases, the weakening effect of the confining pressure on the guided wave propagation law increases, and the bond quality of the rockbolt increases. The existence of defects cannot change the strengthening effect of the confining pressure on the guided wave propagation law under the same pull-out load or the weakening effect of the pull-out load on the guided wave propagation law under the same confining pressure.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones and Storms over the Southwestern Indian Ocean Region Using the Generalized Linear Models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.

大庆油田裸眼井测井技术进展与展望

为了提高大庆油田裸眼井测井技术支撑能力和研究成果领先水平,全面回顾了大庆油田测井采集系列及解释技术的创新发展历程,系统总结了特高含水期剩余油解释、火山岩等复杂岩性测井评价、碎屑岩储量参数解释、非常规油气“甜点”分类、缝洞型碳酸盐岩储层测井评价等油田勘探开发测井评价技术。在客观分析大庆油田勘探开发测井解释评价需求和面临瓶颈问题的基础上,结合当前油田测井评价对象规模小、物性差、埋藏深、地层结构复杂、非均质性强的特点。指明了测井解释评价核心技术主攻方向。围绕新阶段测井采集及解释评价技术体系完善与建立,对高分辨率和成像测井采集、后油藏时期和非常规测井解释评价、新一代智能解释技术体系等未来发展进行了展望。

循环张拉作用下新型多节泡土钉抗拔性能现场试验研究

新型多节泡土钉具有拉拔硬化特征,相比传统土钉,其在土质边坡中抗拔性能更优。为了探究实际工况条件下新型多节泡土钉的边坡加固性能,并与传统土钉进行比较,开展7组新型多节泡土钉及传统土钉现场循环张拉试验,研究注浆工艺、节泡间距及埋深对土钉抗拔力及其发挥速率的影响规律,进而探明了每一循环下土钉弹、塑性拉拔位移占比,并分析其内在机理。试验结果表明:循环张拉作用下,注浆工艺对土钉的抗拔力影响显著,采用改进式压密注浆工艺和直接压密注浆工艺的土钉抗拔力远远超出传统注浆工艺,且初期的拉拔硬化现象更明显。采用改进式压密注浆工艺的土钉抗拔力发挥速率最快,直接压密注浆工艺次之,传统注浆工艺最小。从总体趋势上看,新型多节泡土钉抗拔力发挥速率在降低,传统土钉抗拔力发挥速率在升高。采用改进式压密注浆工艺虽然不能提升土钉弹性拉拔位移的占比,却能显著提高极限抗拔力;节泡间距对多节泡土钉抗拔力和抗拔力发挥速率影响较小,主要受到土钉周围土体强度的影响;埋深影响多节泡土钉的极限抗拔力,埋深越大,极限抗拔力和初始抗拔力发挥速率越大,同时抗拔力发挥速率随拉拔位移递减的趋势也更加明显。研究成果对提高新型多节泡土钉加固性能和优化工程应用提供指导。

临近空间激光雷达自调焦接收系统设计

针对临近空间激光雷达所使用的离轴抛物面反射镜在低温下会发生形变导致反射光耦合进光纤时效率下降的问题,通过研究自调焦技术,设计了自动补偿激光雷达组件,用于抵消温度对系统的影响。利用有限元法分析了接收系统在热载荷作用下的变形,获得镜面离散变形数据,使用Zernike多项式拟合镜面变形后的面形,通过光学设计软件模拟得出该激光雷达接收系统优化后的焦距变化与温度呈线性关系,经过光学设计软件确定补偿位置。使用温度自适应调整机构降低热变形带来的离焦量影响。分析结果表明,补偿后均方根半径从26.495μm下降至15.93μm,光斑半径减少39.9%,耦合效率提升至80%以上。

基于轴箱高频振动的车轮不圆辨识方法研究

为实现对高速列车车轮高阶不圆的实时检测,研究了轴箱高频振动与车轮不圆的频谱特征和映射关系,采用频域积分方法对车轮不圆的幅值和阶次进行辨识.首先,通过静态测试和台架试验,研究我国高速铁路车轮多边形、钢轨波磨和轨道模态的表现形式;其次,通过高速列车长期服役性能跟踪试验,掌握转向架轴箱振动的时频特征和演化规律;最后,以现场出现车轮20阶多边形的车辆为研究对象,提出基于频域积分的车轮不圆阶次和幅值辨识方法.研究结果表明:CRTS-Ⅱ型轨道板钢轨三阶弯曲频率为592 Hz;列车以300 km/h运行时,20阶车轮多边形和136 mm波长钢轨波磨的响应频率分别为580 Hz和613 Hz;钢轨模态、车轮多边形以及钢轨波磨的振动主频较为集中,轴箱高频振动幅值随车速和镟后里程的增大而增大;采用加速度频域积分方法,从理论上可实现对车轮不圆幅值和阶次的辨识;基于线路实测轴箱加速度的20阶车轮多边形辨识结果与静态测试值相对误差不超过5%.

一种高可靠连体式介质滤波器设计

根据椭圆函数响应,采用相对介电常数为37的高品质因数微波介质材料,该文设计了一种低损耗、连体式四级介质滤波器。通过1-4谐振器之间使用级联四元组(CQ)电容加载耦合,经优化后滤波器中心频率为1268 MHz,工作带宽为25 MHz,插入损耗≤2.5 dB,回波损耗≥18 dB,近端带外抑制≥40 dB。根据仿真模型结构参数,优化成型和金属化工艺,制备得到的样品,通过可靠性环境试验表明,该滤波器的性能测试结果与仿真结果吻合良好。

HRB635级高强钢筋与C70高强混凝土黏结锚固性能试验研究

目的 研究HRB635级高强钢筋与C70高强混凝土之间黏结锚固性能,为工程应用提供参考。方法 设计制作了5组45个直锚试件进行拉拔试验,分析了锚固长度、配箍率、混凝土保护层厚度等因素对锚固性能的影响。结果 试件极限承载力随配箍率和锚固长度的增加而增加,但当箍筋率ρsv大于1.26%,锚固长度la大于15d后,配箍率和锚固长度的增加不再对试件极限承载力产生明显的影响;对于未配置箍筋的试件,当试件保护层厚度从2d增加到3d时,试件极限承载力随着保护层厚度的增加而增加,但当保护层厚度大于3d后,保护层厚度的增加对试件极限承载力基本没有影响。结论 在进行HRB635级高强钢筋和C70高强混凝土试件设计时,锚固长度可按《混凝土结构设计规范》(GB 50010-2010)中相关公式进行计算,且具有足够的安全储备。

UUV变截面自航发射管线型优化仿真分析

为设计适用于无人水下航行器(UUV)变截面的自航发射装置,文中基于电动力鱼雷推力模型和自航发射过程受力模型,分析鱼雷自航发射过程中所受的推力、流体阻力、沿程阻力和局部阻力,依据运动学方程,建立鱼雷自航发射数学模型,依据数学模型建立仿真程序计算出管速度,以出管速度为关键指标优化UUV变截面自航发射管线型。结合变截面发射管结构特点和设计需求,确定发射管各段长度和直径作为约束条件,进而建立优化问题的数学表达式,为加快收敛,采用自适应变异概率的遗传算法进行发射管线型寻优计算,进行100代仿真计算,比较出管速度最终得出优化结果,以结果为依据绘制了自航发射管最优线型,对探索UUV变截面发射技术进行了有益尝试,为变截面自航发射管设计提供了理论依据。

采空塌陷区隧道病害机理与防控研究现状与展望

我国是煤炭生产大国,煤炭开采造成了大量采空塌陷。随着公路铁路网不断加密,在山西等采煤大省,越来越多的交通隧道不得不穿越煤矿采空塌陷区。采空塌陷区岩层破坏剧烈、变形量大且持续时间长,是隧道工程建设与运营的重大安全隐患,系统研究采空塌陷区隧道灾变机理与防控技术是隧道工程建设与运营安全的重要保障。通过分析文献报道的工程案例,总结了采空塌陷区隧道的主要病害类型及其灾变机理,回顾了塌陷区采动岩体长期变形预测方法与隧道灾变预测方法,介绍了塌陷区采动岩体变形控制方法与穿越采空区隧道围岩处治方法。在此基础上,分析了采空塌陷区隧道灾变与防控技术研究中存在的突出问题,并对亟待研究的方向进行了展望。

胀锁型锚索双向加固窄煤柱试验研究与工程应用

针对沿空掘巷窄煤柱非对称变形问题,提出了对穿锚索双向加固窄煤柱技术,设计了伸长型和胀锁型两种对穿锚索结构及工艺,开展了对穿锚索拉拔试验,试验表明两种锚索结构均满足抗拉要求,从锚索破坏形态、施工便捷性和材料经济性等方面对比分析,确定胀锁型对穿锚索为窄煤柱双向加固的首选。进一步通过相似模型试验与数值模拟研究了不同加固方式下煤柱承载变形规律和对穿锚索受力特征。结果表明:双排紧密型对穿锚索加固试件较未加固试件峰值荷载提高了96.04%,且随着锚索排数及数量的增加,窄煤柱双向加固稳定性越来越高,胀锁型对穿锚索提高了煤柱破坏前的能量储存量和临界破坏点。最后,在济宁三号煤矿123_(下)04工作面运输巷开展胀锁式对穿锚索加固窄煤柱工程试验,监测显示对穿锚索锚固力超过220 kN,锚索加固区煤柱帮鼓量降低70%,窄煤柱整体稳定性好,窄煤柱双向加固技术可行,为沿空掘巷工程提供了新技术途径。

老采空区地表沉降预测合理监测模式分析

为研究老采空区沉降监测数据时间间隔对预测精度的影响,本文利用某老采空区地表沉降监测点实测沉降数据,在等时间间隔、非等时间间隔两种情况下建立两种方案、六种沉降预测模式,采用长短期记忆神经网络(LSTM)预测模型对老采空区地表沉降进行预测,以平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)作为评价指标,分析不同时间间隔监测数据对预测精度的影响。结果表明,在总监测时长不变的情况下,预测精度随平均监测间隔时长的增长呈先增高后降低的趋势,即并非监测间隔越短,预测精度越高,而是在相应监测间隔范围内存在预测精度最优值。研究成果可为老采空区监测方案设计及沉降预测模式提供借鉴和指导。