A data assimilation-based forecast model of outer radiation belt electron fluxes

Because radiation belt electrons can pose a potential threat to the safety of satellites orbiting in space,it is of great importance to develop a reliable model that can predict the highly dynamic variations in outer radiation belt electron fluxes.In the present study,we develop a forecast model of radiation belt electron fluxes based on the data assimilation method,in terms of Van Allen Probe measurements combined with three-dimensional radiation belt numerical simulations.Our forecast model can cover the entire outer radiation belt with a high temporal resolution(1 hour)and a spatial resolution of 0.25 L over a wide range of both electron energy(0.1-5.0 MeV)and pitch angle(5°-90°).On the basis of this model,we forecast hourly electron fluxes for the next 1,2,and 3 days during an intense geomagnetic storm and evaluate the corresponding prediction performance.Our model can reasonably predict the stormtime evolution of radiation belt electrons with high prediction efficiency(up to~0.8-1).The best prediction performance is found for~0.3-3 MeV electrons at L=~3.25-4.5,which extends to higher L and lower energies with increasing pitch angle.Our results demonstrate that the forecast model developed can be a powerful tool to predict the spatiotemporal changes in outer radiation belt electron fluxes,and the model has both scientific significance and practical implications.

Non-storm erosion of MeV electron outer radiation belt down to L^(*)<4.0 associated with successive enhancements of solar wind density

We report an unusual non-storm erosion event of outer zone MeV electron distribution during three successive solar wind number density enhancements(SWDEs)on November 27-30,2015.Loss of MeV electrons and energy-dependent narrowing of electron pitch angle distributions(PAD)first developed at L^(*)=5.5 and then moved down to L^(*)<4.According to the evolution of the electron phase space density(PSD)profile,losses of electrons with small pitch angles at L^(*)>4 during SWDE1 are mainly due to outward radial diffusion.However during SWDE2&3,scattering loss due to EMIC waves is dominant at 4<L^(*)<5.As for electrons with large pitch angles,outward radial diffusion is the primary loss mechanism throughout all SWDEs which is consistent with the incursion of the Last Closed Drift Shell(LCDS).The inner edge of EMIC wave activity moved from L^(*)~5 to L^(*)~4 and from L~6.4 to L~4.2 from SWDE1 to SWDE2&3,respectively,observed by Van Allen Probes and by ground stations.This is consistent with the inward penetration of anisotropic energetic protons from L^(*)=4.5 to L^(*)=3.5,suggesting that the inward extension of EMIC waves may be driven by the inward injection of anisotropic energetic protons from the dense plasma sheet.

The 600 keV electron injections in the Earth's outer radiation belt:A statistical study

Relativistic electron injections are one of the mechanisms of relativistic(≥0.5 MeV) electron enhancements in the Earth’s outer radiation belt. In this study, we present a statistical observation of 600 keV electron injections in the outer radiation belt by using data from the Van Allen Probes. On the basis of the characteristics of different injections, 600 keV electron injections in the outer radiation belt were divided into pulsed electron injections and nonpulsed electron injections. The 600 keV electron injections were observed at 4.5 < L <6.4 under the geomagnetic conditions of 450 nT < AE < 1,450 nT. An L of ~4.5 is an inward limit for 600 keV electron injections. Before the electron injections, a flux negative L shell gradient for ≤0.6 MeV electrons or low electron fluxes in the injected region were observed. For600 keV electron injections at different L shells, the source populations from the Earth’s plasma sheet were different. For 600 keV electron injections at higher L shells, the source populations were higher energy electrons(~200 keV at X ~–9 R_(E)), whereas the source populations for 600 keV electron injections at lower L shells were lower energy electrons(~80 keV at X ~–9 R_(E)). These results are important to further our understanding of electron injections and rapid enhancements of 600 keV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt.

Dynamic variations of the outer radiation belt during magnetic storms for 1.5–6.0 MeV electrons

The CME’s structure of solar wind(interplanetary magnetic field)is different from CIR’s.The two processes in which plasma and solar wind energy are injected into the Earth’s inner magnetosphere are not the same.So,the variations of energetic elec- trons flux in the radiation belts are different between the storms associated with CMEs and CIRs.By using data from SAMPEX(Solar,Anomalous,and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer)satellite,we have investigated the dynamic variations of the outer radiation belt for 1.5–6.0 MeV electrons during 54 CME-driven storms and 26 CIR-driven recurrent storms.According to the superposed epoch analysis,for CME-and CIR-driven storms,when the Dst index reaches the minimum,the locations of the outer boundary move to L=4 and L=5.5,respectively.In the recovery phases,the locations of the outer boundary of the outer radiation belt are generally lower than and slightly higher than those before CME-and CIR-driven storms,respectively.We have found that the logarithmically decaying 1/e cut-off L-shell is a satisfying indicator of the outer boundary of the outer radiation belt.Furthermore,our study shows that the logarithmically decaying 1/e cut-off latitude is dependent on the Kp index in the main phases of CME-and CIR-driven storms,while in the recovery phases,there is no obvious correlation.In ad- dition,it has been shown that the locations of the peak electron flux are controlled by the minimum Dst index in the main phases of CME-driven storms.The influences of multiple storms on the electron flux of outer radiation belt have also been in- vestigated.

Multi-satellite observations on the storm-time enhancements of energetic outer zone electron fluxes driven by chorus waves

The evolution of energetic outer zone electron fluxes during the strong magnetic storm on September 28, 2002 is investigated based on the observations of SAMPEX and GOES-10 satellites. The observations of both satellites showed that energetic electron fluxes increased significantly during the storm recovery phase, and reached the maximum on October 6. The 1.5–14 MeV and 2.5–14 MeV electron fluxes observed by SAMPEX peaked around L=3.5 with values of 6×10 2 cm -2 s -1 sr -1 keV -1 and 5×10 3 cm -2 s -1 sr -1 keV -1 , which were about 10 and 8 times the pre-storm values. At the geostationary orbit, the >0.6 MeV and >2 MeV electron fluxes observed by GOES-10 showed enhancement up to 50 and 30 times. The plasma parameters and whistler-mode chorus waves in the outer radiation belt are also analyzed based on the data from Cluster C3 satellite. Cluster C3 satellite went through the outer radiation belt twice from 1 October to 4 October, and observed whistler-mode chorus waves with high intensity (10 -5 –10 -4 nT 2 Hz -1 ). Numerical calculations indicated that the observed chorus waves were in gyro-resonance with the radiation belt electrons. The current observations and calculations provide new evidence for that the gyro-resonance with chorus waves contribute significantly to the buildup of energetic outer zone electron fluxes during storms.

Variations of the relativistic electron flux after a magnetospheric compression event

On January 21, 2015, a sharp increase of the solar wind dynamic pressure impacted the magnetosphere. The magnetopause moved inward to the region L< 8 without causing a geomagnetic storm. The flux of the relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt decreased by half during this event based on the observations of the particle radiation monitor(PRM) of the fourth of the China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellites(CBERS-4). The flux remained low for approximately 11 d; it did not recover after a small magnetic storm on January 26 but after a small magnetic storm on February 2. The loss and recovery of the relativistic electrons during this event are investigated using the PRM data, medium-and high-energy electron observations of NOAA-15 and the Van Allen Probes, medium-energy electron observations of GOES-13, and wave observations of the Van Allen Probes. This study shows that the loss of energetic electrons in this event is related to magnetospheric compression. The chorus waves accelerate the medium-energy electrons, which causes the recovery of relativistic electrons. The Van Allen Probes detected strong chorus waves in the region L =3–6 from January 21 to February 2. However, the flux of medium-energy electrons was low in the region. This implies that the long-lasting lack of recovery of the relativistic electrons after this event is due to the lack of the medium-energy"seed" electrons. The medium-energy electrons in the outer radiation belt may be a clue to predict the recovery of relativistic electrons.