Credit Risk Model Taking Account of Inflation and Its Contribution to Macroeconomic Discussion on Effect of Inflation on Output Growth

We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.

The Effects of Output Growth on Preventive Investment Policy

We develop a multi-period dynamic model in which managers decide in each period how much to invest in improving process reliability. The optimal investment decision will minimize the firm’s total costs, which are comprised of its preventive costs and failure costs. We explicitly characterize the optimal investment scheme under different output growth projections and where the firm considers project obsolescence and investment salvageability. Our findings include: for sufficiently small output growth, investment will be made upfront;for sufficiently large output growth, investment will be made periodically until project termination;and for intermediate growth, investment will be staged until some period after which there will be no more investment. The general nature of the cost function in this model allows for its application in various cost reduction settings.

Spatial Effect Research on Educational Output and Economic Growth in China

This thesis is to study spatial effect of education output on economic growth through the use of spatial measurement technique. According to the study: there’s the presence of spatial spillover effects in human capital, economic growth, and others;in previous years, human capital depended on mainly the employers with junior school education or below;in recent years, with the reduction of employers with junior school education or below, employers with regular higher education can best promote the economic growth. However, it’s very difficult for human capital with vocational education to promote economic growth, especially in recent years. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term economic growth, China should focus on culturing professional talents and put more resources into the development of vocational education while developing the higher education.

外源肌醇对草莓生长和品质的影响

为了探究外源肌醇对草莓生长和品质的影响,以红颜草莓为试材,对草莓进行外源肌醇处理,通过测定草莓株高、糖含量和果实单株产量指标,比较常规与肌醇处理情况下草莓的生长状况。结果表明:外源肌醇对采摘后期草莓植株长势具有一定促进作用,能在一定程度上促进草莓植株根系的生长发育,增加叶面积;在采摘后期,草莓株高及冠径分别较对照提高了15.76%、45.52%;在草莓全生育期内,外源肌醇能在一定程度上提高草莓的糖含量和产量,还能够显著增加草莓单株鲜质量,较对照提高了122.21%,采摘初期至采摘盛期1个月内采摘产量较对照提高了28.88%;在采摘后期,单果质量、单株产量和折合产量与对照相比均存在极显著差异,分别较对照提高106.54%、100%、84.29%,增产效果十分明显。综上,外源肌醇可以促进草莓植株的生长,提高草莓的品质,还能在一定程度上提高其产量。

积累率、再生产结构与经济增长——基于中国城市数据的实证研究

以价值衡量的净产出增长取决于社会中的积累率水平、追加资本的结构以及净产出增量的分配结构。经济增长是社会剩余和再生产结构的函数。本文运用我国1998—2019年4个直辖市和283个地级市(含省会城市)数据,对该结论进行了实证检验。研究结果显示:积累率、追加资本结构和劳动收入占比对我国经济增长具有显著性影响,这种影响在我国省会城市与非省会城市以及南方城市和北方城市间具有显著的异质性。在我国全面建设社会主义现代化国家的背景下,保持合宜的经济增长速度是维持社会稳定、实现发展目标的基础。随着我国资本密集度的不断提高、二元经济结构的调整、人口结构的变化以及创新型国家的建设,追加资本中可变资本比例的下降和劳动收入的不断上升,会对经济增长带来抑制作用。因此,应通过保持较高的积累率、调整投资方向、不断提高劳动生产率的方式获得理想的增长速度。

“十强”产业发展对山东经济增长的贡献研究

经济增长与产业发展密不可分,实现山东新旧动能转换的关键就在于推动产业发展。山东确定了重点发展“十强”产业,在做大、做强、做优“十强”产业上实现新突破。借助投入产出技术研究发现,“十强”产业在宏观、中观、微观等三个层面对山东经济增长都发挥了重要的作用。未来应采取优化营商环境、加强科技创新、培育壮大市场主体、扩大对外开放等措施推动“十强”产业发展。

Agricultural Policy, Climate Factors and Grain Output: Evidence From Household Survey Data in Rural China

This paper estimates a stochastic frontier function using a panel data set that includes 4 961 farmer households for the period of 2005-2009 to decompose the growth of grain production and the total factor productivity （TFP） growth at the farmer level. The empirical results show that the major contributor to the grain output growth for farmers is input growth and that its average contribution accounts for 60.92% of farmer’s grain production growth in the period of 2006-2009, whereas the average contributions sourced from TFP growth and residuals are only 17.30 and 21.78%, respectively. The growth of intermediate inputs is a top contributor with an average contribution of 44.46%, followed by the planted area （18.16%）, investment in fixed assets （1.05%）, and labor input （-2.75%）, indicating that the contribution from the farmer’s input growth is mainly due to the growth of intermediate inputs and that the decline in labor inputs has become an obstacle for farmers in seeking grain output growth. Among the elements consisting of TFP growth, the contribution of technical progress is the largest （32.04%）, followed by grain subsidies （8.55%）, the average monthly temperature （4.26%）, the average monthly precipitation （-0.88%）, the adjusted scale effect （-5.66%）, and growth in technical efficiency （-21.01%）. In general, the contribution of climate factors and agricultural policy factor are positive and significant.

Productivity Growth in China's Agriculture During 1985-2010

This paper made an empirical analysis of China＇s agricultural growth path and influential factors using the province-level panel data of agricultural inputs and outputs during 1985-2010.The findings indicate that the increase in agricultural inputs and TFP contributed 40.6 and 55.2% to the agricultural output growth,respectively;China＇s agriculture had jumped out of the pattern which output growth was mainly driven by increasing input.Of the total inputs,chemical fertilizer had the most important contribution to the output growth,followed by mechanical inputs.The contribution of land and labor was negative.China＇s agricultural output growth belonged to the type of induced technology innovation.China＇s agricultural TFP growth had characteristics of fluctuations over time and unbalanced between regions,but the gap between the eastern,the middle,and the western regions has been narrowed.

区域性研发投入、专利产出与经济高质量发展——基于山东省的PVAR模型研究

随着我国经济由高速增长向高质量发展转变,研发投入、专利产出与经济高质量发展的关系越来越密切。在知识经济时代,如何最大化发挥研发投入、专利产出对经济高质量发展的贡献问题成为当前理论研究的重点。通过构建山东省2005—2020年面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,对三者关系进行实证检验。研究结果与传统理念认知以及山东省经济地位存在较大反差,即无论是从静态模型上还是动态模型上,山东省研发投入、专利产出效率均没有有效发挥出对经济高质量发展的积极推动效应。因此,山东省需要因地制宜制定并完善研发投入、专利产出及人才储备方面的配套体系策略,最大程度发挥研发投入、专利产出对地区高质量经济发展的潜力作用,为其他区域性经济发展提供经验借鉴。

基于模型平均的中国产出增长和通货膨胀密度预测

产出增长和通货膨胀是政府宏观调控关注的最重要的两个指标,对二者进行准确预测有利于精准施策.传统预测往往基于点预测,即对经济变量的条件均值展开预测,无法准确刻画预测结果的不确定性,而密度预测提供了未来条件概率分布的预测,有效弥补了点预测的缺陷.本文基于自回归分布滞后(ADL)模型,利用17个预测指标构建了中国产出增长和通货膨胀的密度预测模型,并采用多种检验方法评估不同模型的可适性.结果发现,基于单个预测变量的自回归分布滞后(ADL)模型大多存在模型误设的问题,而对多个ADL模型进行加权平均得到的组合预测能显著降低模型误设的风险.样本外预测进一步表明,基于OLS参数估计的贝叶斯模型平均(BMA⁃OLS)方法能较准确地预测中国产出增长和通货膨胀的未来分布.

玉豆间作对大豆生长发育、产量、品质及群体经济产值的影响

为筛选适宜在本地与玉米间作种植的大豆品种,促进玉豆间作技术的推广应用。本研究以3个福建省春大豆品种(泉豆7号、泉豆13号和泉豆17)及玉米品种金百甜15为材料,以2∶2大豆、玉米行比进行间作种植,以大豆单作和玉米单作为对照,在大豆不同生育时期,测定大豆单作和玉豆间作的大豆株高、叶绿素含量、干物质量,计算叶面积指数和茎占比,分析其变化规律与差异;大豆成熟后,分析大豆单作和玉豆间作的大豆农艺性状、产量及品质差异,计算不同处理下的产量、群体经济产值及土地当量比,分析不同间作组合间的差异,并对大豆农艺性状、产量及群体经济产值进行相关性分析,对玉豆间作模式进行适应性综合评价。结果表明:(1)大豆生育期间:株高在鼓粒期达到峰值,间作种植显著提高大豆株高(P<0.05),且均呈现泉豆7号>泉豆17>泉豆13号的趋势;叶绿素含量和叶面积指数均呈现先增大后减小的趋势,在鼓粒期达到峰值,间作种植显著提高叶绿素含量,降低叶面积指数和大豆各个干物质重,同一生育时期的干物质总量均呈现泉豆13号>泉豆17>泉豆7号的趋势;大豆茎占比呈现先增大后减小的趋势,在开花期达到峰值,且均呈现泉豆7号>泉豆17>泉豆13号的趋势。(2)大豆成熟后:间作种植显著提高大豆株高和底荚高度,其中泉豆7号提高最多,泉豆13号提高最少,泉豆17表现居中;间作种植后,大豆主茎节数显著减少,有效分枝数、单株有效荚数、单株粒数、单株粒重和百粒重均显著降低,其中泉豆13号减少最小,泉豆7号减少最多,泉豆17居中;间作种植显著改变了大豆籽粒蛋白质和脂肪含量,其中蛋白质含量显著降低,脂肪含量显著提高。(3)间作种植均显著降低玉米产量和大豆产量,但均显著提高了群体产量,3个玉豆间作系统的经济总产值从高到低依次为泉豆13号/金百甜15>泉豆17/金百甜15>泉豆7号/金百甜15,分别为30371.15,30125.26和29866.71元·hm^(-2),均显著高于玉米和大豆各自单作模式下的经济产值,对应的间作大豆产量分别为1229.94,1182.37和1137.83 kg·hm^(-2),3个间作系统群体间的经济总产值差异达显著水平,3个间作模式下大豆的产量差异也均达显著水平;3个间作系统的土地当量比均大于1,说明间作种植具有明显优势。(4)相关性分析结果表明,株高和底荚高度与大豆产量、群体总产值均呈显著负相关,大豆产量与群体总产值呈显著正相关。综上,间作种植显著提高大豆株高、底荚高度、叶绿素含量和脂肪含量,显著提高间作群体产量,选择矮秆、茎占比小的大豆品种更容易获得较高的大豆产量及群体经济产值。经比较分析,泉豆13号适宜在泉州与玉米间作种植,并且能获得相对较高的大豆产量及群体经济产值。

Energy efficiency and economic growth of China:1953-2006

Energy plays an important role in the economic life. With the rapid development of economy, the constraint of energy on the sustainable development of economy is becoming more and more obvious. This paper just studies the factors influencing energy efficiency of China and the relationship between energy efficiency and China's economic growth. By using time series multivariable linear regression methods with China's relevant data from 1953 to 2006, this paper constructs the regression model to analyze the factors that would impact energy efficiency. After that, a regression model of China's real output to capital, labor and energy efficiency is conducted to estimate the marginal contribution of every factor to the real output to prove the fundamental influence of energy eff iciency to the economic growth. In the end, some policies and recommendations are also put forward in order to improve the energy efficiency of China.

Empirical Research on Scientific and Technical Innovation and Economic Growth in Shanghai

With the explosive growth of knowledge and the further improvement of economic globalization, technology gradually represents its greater significance as the core factor of the strategic resources and competence for national and regional development, which becomes a greater support to the construction of the innovative country and also a key to take the initiative to develop. Under this tendency, technological improvements should play a more important role in pushing the economy forwards, which brings higher requirements for technical development in Shanghai. Thus Shanghai must integrate and utilize the resources of new technology in a more comprehensive way. During the process of building up a well-off society as well as innovative regions in an all-around way, the demand for technological innovation is continuously increasing and its content, as to Shanghai, is undergoing further fulfillment. The study on the inner connection between Shanghai technological development and economic growth, thus under such background, means much to get a knowledge about the dynamic equilibrium relationship between technical progress and economic growth, which can be taken as an important reference for the government to draw up the plan for future technological development.

STABILITY ANAL YSISOF THE DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT SYSTEM

The dynamic input output model is well known in economic theory and practice.In this paper,the asymptotic stability and balanced growth solutions of the dynamic input output system are considered.Under some natural assumptions which do not require the technical coefficient matrix to be indecomposable,it has been proved that the dynamic input output system is not asymptotically stable and the closed dynamic input output model has a balanced growth solution.

New Plant Growth Regulator Emistim C AS used on Watermelon in Field Evaluation

Most plant growth regulators available are synthesized and tend to be dangerous if used inappropriately. Emistim CAS is a natural plant growth regulator, with less side-effect. The research performed an assessment on Emistim CAS application in watermelon cultivation in a greenhouse. The results showed that 0.11% Emistim CAS increased reducing sugar by 15.49%, soluble solid by 13.7%, Vc content by 3.72%, titratable acid by 18.1%, and yield per hectare by 18.01%, so that watermelon quality and yield were both improved. Emistim CAS can be widely promoted in watermelon cultivation in future.

厘清“三驾马车”贡献推进中国经济稳健发展

“三驾马车”各自对中国经济增长有着不同的拉动能力和实际效果,支出法对其难以准确核算。基于非竞争型投入产出模型,测算分析2002年以来国内最终消费、资本形成和出口这三大需求因素对中国不同时期GDP形成的拉动、对经济增长带来的效果与特征,可厘清“三驾马车”对入世以来中国经济的实际贡献。研究表明,长期以来内需一直是中国经济增长的主要动力,尤其是国内最终消费,已成为促进经济增长的重要引擎;消费的实际贡献在2008年以来稳步增强、保持领先,而投资和出口对中国第二产业的发展发挥着关键的支撑作用。扩大内需仍是中国经济未来中长期发展的重中之重,中国经济的稳健发展需要充分发挥消费对服务业、投资对制造业和建筑业的强大拉动力,需要注重在扩大消费和扩大投资的结合点上发力,同时,还要进一步扩大对外开放,以稳定出口对中国经济发展的促进作用。

基于产业投入产出表的数字产业经济增长效应研究

我国经济发展面临着多方面挑战,要稳固社会经济增长,发挥数字产业的作用尤为重要。文章应用投入产出法,依据国家统计局《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类(2021)》中数字产业的分类标准,通过分离系数法从国家投入产出表中得到数字产业投入产出表,进而应用SDA模型从需求侧视角探究数字产业的经济增长效应,并对不同时期的经济增长效应进行动态比较,直观展示不同时期数字产业经济增长效应驱动力的差异性。结果显示:投资一直是数字产业和细分部门经济增长的主要推动力,居民消费、政府消费、出口扩张等驱动因素的推动力在各行业有所差别。

湖南省工业碳效率与经济增长的耦合协调研究

本文以测算的湖南省各市州的工业碳效率为基础,探究工业碳效率与经济增长的耦合协调问题,研究结果表明:①湖南省各市州的工业碳效率普遍低下。2021年,长沙、湘西州两市工业碳效率值大于1,属于有效状态;与之对应,娄底的工业碳效率值最低,仅为0.203;其余各市州的碳效率值在0.2-0.7之间,有较大的提升空间。②湖南省工业碳效率与经济增长的耦合协调度整体属于效率滞后型且研究期内呈波动上升的趋势。总体来看,截止2021年,除娄底、邵阳、株洲和张家界处于失调状态外,其余城市均处在中等协调及以上层次。长沙的耦合协调度最高,工业碳效率与经济增长达到了优质协调;中部地区的耦合协调度相对较低,其中,邵阳市的耦合协调度最低,2021年仅为0.044。

供给侧货币政策能解决经济滞胀问题吗——基于MIUP-DSGE模型

在全球经济“滞胀”风险上升背景下,结合中国供给侧货币政策实践,将货币放入效用和生产函数,把NK(New Keynesian)模型扩展为MIUP(Money In Utility&Production)模型,以探讨货币政策能否解决经济滞胀问题。研究发现,基于标准NK-DSGE模型的需求侧货币政策,能解决有效需求不足引起的通缩,但无法解决滞胀;基于MIUP-DSGE模型的供给侧货币政策,可解决有效供给不足引起的滞胀,但无法解决通缩。疫情期间中国坚持管好货币“总闸门”,强调调货币政策直达实体经济,促进生产供给,从而实现“保供稳价”;疫情之后随着生产供给的增加,需求不足成为经济恢复的阻力,应合理搭配两类货币政策,从而实现“供需两旺”。