Experimental study of the effects of a multistage pore-throat structure on the seepage characteristics of sandstones in the Beibuwan Basin:Insights into the flooding mode

To investigate the relationship between grain sizes, seepage capacity, and oil-displacement efficiency in the Liushagang Formation of the Beibuwan Basin, this study identifies the multistage pore-throat structure as a crucial factor through a comparison of oil displacement in microscopic pore-throat experiments. The two-phase flow evaluation method based on the Li-Horne model is utilized to effectively characterize and quantify the seepage characteristics of different reservoirs, closely relating them to the distribution of microscopic pores and throats. It is observed that conglomerate sandstones at different stages exhibit significant heterogeneity and noticeable differences in seepage capacity, highlighting the crucial role played by certain large pore throats in determining seepage capacity and oil displacement efficiency. Furthermore, it was found that the displacement effects of conglomeratic sandstones with strong heterogeneity were inferior to those of conventional homogeneous sandstone, as evidenced by multiple displacement experiments conducted on core samples with varying granularities and flooding systems. Subsequently, core-based experiments on associated gas flooding after water flooding were conducted to address the challenge of achieving satisfactory results in a single displacement mode for reservoirs with significant heterogeneity. The results indicate that the oil recovery rates for associated gas flooding after water flooding increased by 7.3%-16.4% compared with water flooding alone at a gas-oil ratio of approximately 7000 m^(3)/m^(3). Therefore, considering the advantages of gas flooding in terms of seepage capacity, oil exchange ratio, and the potential for two-phase production, gas flooding is recommended as an energy supplement mode for homogeneous reservoirs in the presence of sufficient gas source and appropriate tectonic angle. On the other hand, associated gas flooding after water flooding is suggested to achieve a more favorable development effect compared to a single mode of energy supplementation for strongly heterogeneous sandstone reservoirs.

Effect of CO_(2)flooding in an oil reservoir with strong bottom-water drive in the Tahe Oilfield,Tarim Basin,Northwest China

The dissolution and diffusion of CO_(2)in oil and water and its displacement mechanism were investigated by laboratory experiment and numerical simulation for Block 9 in the Tahe oilfield,a sandstone oil reservoir with strong bottom-water drive in Tarim Basin,Northwest China.Such parameters were analyzed as solubility ratio of CO_(2)in oil,gas and water,interfacial tension,in-situ oil viscosity distribution,remaining oil saturation distribution,and oil compositions.The results show that CO_(2)flooding could control water coning and increase oil production.In the early stage of the injection process,CO_(2)expanded vertically due to gravity differentiation,and extended laterally under the action of strong bottom water in the intermediate and late stages.The CO_(2)got enriched and extended at the oil-water interface,forming a high interfacial tension zone,which inhibited the coning of bottom water to some extent.A miscible region with low interfacial tension formed at the gas injection front,which reduced the in-situ oil viscosity by about 50%.The numerical simulation results show that enhanced oil recovery(EOR)is estimated at 5.72%and the oil exchange ratio of CO_(2)is 0.17 t/t.

Layered injection technology for chemical flooding of Class-Ⅲ oil reservoirs in the Daqing Oil Fields complex,Songliao Basin,Northeast China

The Class-Ⅲ oil reservoirs of Lasaxing oilfield in the Daqing Oil Fields complex have geological oil reserves of 1.86 billion tonnes,an oil recovery of 39%,with remaining reserves accounting for more than 45%of the total geological reserves of the oilfield.Therefore,they have considerable potential for future oil production.The current layered injection technologies fail to achieve effective control over the low single-layer injection rates since they can only produce low throttle differential pressure under low injection rates(5-20 m^(3)/d).In this study,a symmetrically-structured double-offset-hole injection allocator and a novel throttling component were developed.Their spatial layout was constructed and mechanical parameters were optimized using finite element analysis,which allows for expanding the flow rate range at low injection rates.According to experimental results,the throttle differential pressure increased from 0.2 MPa to 0.8 MPa at an injection rate of 5 m^(3)/d,and the range of the single-layer flow rates expanded from 20-70 m^(3)/d to 5-70 m3/d.The field test results show that the effective production of oil layers with medium and low permeability was achieved and that the ratio of producing oil layer thickness to the total reservoir thickness increased by 9.7%on average.Therefore,this study provides valuable technical support for the effective chemical-flooding-based development of Class-Ⅲ oil reservoirs.

Responses of runoff to changes in climate and human activities in the Liuhe River Basin, China

Since the 1950s,numerous soil and water conservation measures have been implemented to control severe soil erosion in the Liuhe River Basin(LRB),China.While these measures have protected the upstream soil and water ecological environment,they have led to a sharp reduction in the downstream flow and the deterioration of the river ecological environment.Therefore,it is important to evaluate the impact of soil and water conservation measures on hydrological processes to assess long-term runoff changes.Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)models and sensitivity analyses based on the Budyko hypothesis,this study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change,direct water withdrawal,and soil and water conservation measures on runoff in the LRB during different periods,including different responses to runoff discharge,hydrological regime,and flood processes.The runoff series were divided into a baseline period(1956-1969)and two altered periods,i.e.,period 1(1970-1999)and period 2(2000-2020).Human activities were the main cause of the decrease in runoff during the altered periods,contributing 86.03%(-29.61 mm),while the contribution of climate change was only 13.70%(-4.70 mm).The impact of climate change manifests as a decrease in flood volume caused by a reduction in precipitation during the flood season.Analysis of two flood cases indicated a 66.00%-84.00%reduction in basin runoff capacity due to soil and water conservation measures in the upstream area.Soil and water conservation measures reduced the peak flow and total flood volume in the upstream runoff area by 77.98%and 55.16%,respectively,even with nearly double the precipitation.The runoff coefficient in the reservoir area without soil and water conservation measures was 4.0 times that in the conservation area.These results contribute to the re-evaluation of soil and water conservation hydrological effects and provide important guidance for water resource planning and water conservation policy formulation in the LRB.

Climatic Characteristics Analysis of Flood-producing Rainstorm in Duhe River Basin

Based on the data from 1998 to 2005,area rainfall,flow of main hydrologic stations in Duhe River and upstream water level of the dam of Huanglongtan Reservoir in the lower reaches of Duhe River were analyzed,and the standard of flood-producing rainstorm in Duhe River was given,while temporal and spatial distribution and circulation flow situation characteristic of flood-producing rainstorm in Duhe River were studied.The results showed that the flood-producing rainstorm in Duhe River was mainly continuous intensive precipitation with the characteristic of long duration.There was most rainfall in Zhuxiquan River,Zhushanguandu River and southwest part of the middle and upper reaches of Duhe River,and next came Zhuxi River.Flood-producing rainstorm occurred in Duhe River with some favorable circulation features.For example,it was more favorable in the west Pacific subtropical high,and the convergence zone at northeast-southwest direction was formed between subtropical high and continental high pressure at 700 hPa,while southwest vortex moved eastward.Low pressure system at 850 hPa in south part of plateau developed and moved eastward to Chongqing region and formed low vortex or shear near Duhe River basin.Moreover,the characteristics of physical quantity field were analyzed,the results showed that temperature in plateau area and the south area of Duhe River basin increased obviously before rainstorm,and east pathway was the main path of cold air which affected flood-producing rainstorm in Duhe River.There was a θse intensive belt with NEE-SWW direction at 30°-40° N at 925-500 hPa,and moisture convergence was beneficial to the occurrence of rainstorm in Duhe River.

The Relation between Atmospheric Intraseasonal Oscillation and Summer Severe Flood and Drought in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin

The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is studied during the severe flood and drought years of the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the precipitation data in China. The results show that the upper-level (200 hPa) ISO pattern for severe flood (drought) is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the southern Tibetan Plateau and a cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation over the northern Tibetan Plateau. The lower-level (850 hPa) ISO pattern is characterized by an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over the area south of the Changjiang River, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, and a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation from the area north of the Changjiang River to Japan. These low-level ISO circulation patterns are the first modes of the ISO wind field according to the vector EOF expansion with stronger amplitude of the EOF1 time coefficient in severe flood years than in severe drought years. The analyses also reveal that at 500 hPa and 200 hPa, the atmospheric ISO activity over the Changjiang-Huaihe River basin, North China, and the middle-high latitudes north of China is stronger for severe flood than for severe drought. The ISO meridional wind over the middle-high latitude regions can propagate southwards and meet with the northward propagating ISO meridional wind from lower latitude regions over the Changjiang-Huaihe River Basin during severe flood years, but not during severe drought years.

Forecast of Flood in Chaohu Lake Basin of China Based on Grey-Markov Theory

Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.

Mountain Effect and Differences in Storm Floods between Northern and Southern Sources of the Songhua River Basin

In this study, the differences in annual rainstorm changes in the Second Songhua River Basin and the Nenjiang River basin and their causes were compared from the perspective of mountain effects. The following results were drawn: (1) Altitude effect is the primary factor leading to increased rainstorms in the southern source; (2) Slope effect primarily leads to differences of the weather systems in the two sources, and thus cause the difference of the rainstorms; (3) Slope effect is responsible for the greater fluctuation in the observed floods in the southern source. These landform differences eventually lead to the differences in the characteristics of floods in the southern and northern sources. Commensurability method was used to identify the period of rainstorms in the southern and northern sources. The results showed that although rainstorms do not appear at the same time in the two sources they are characteristic of a 10 years' period in both areas. These results can serve as hydrological references for flood control and long-term flood disaster predictions.

Mechanism and Forecasting Methods for Severe Droughts and Floods in Songhua River Basin in China

The influence of various factors, mechanisms, and principles affecting runoff are summarized as periodic law, random law, and basin-wide law. Periodic law is restricted by astronomical factors, random law is restricted by atmospheric circulation, and basin-wide law is restricted by underlying surface. The commensurability method was used to identify the almost period law, the wave method was applied to deducing the random law, and the precursor method was applied in order to forecast runoff magnitude for the current year. These three methods can be used to assess each other and to forecast runoff. The system can also be applied to forecasting wet years, normal years and dry years for a particular year as well as forecasting years when floods with similar characteristics of previous floods, can be expected. Based on hydrological climate data of Baishan (1933-2009) and Nierji (1886-2009) in the Songhua River Basin, the forecasting results for 2010 show that it was a wet year in the Baishan Reservoir, similar to the year of 1995; it was a secondary dry year in the Nierji Reservoir, similar to the year of 1980. The actual water inflow into the Baishan Reservoir was 1.178 × 10 10 m 3 in 2010, which was markedly higher than average inflows, ranking as the second highest in history since records began. The actual water inflow at the Nierji station in 2010 was 9.96 × 10 9 m 3 , which was lower than the average over a period of many years. These results indicate a preliminary conclusion that the methods proposed in this paper have been proved to be reasonable and reliable, which will encourage the application of the chief reporter release system for each basin. This system was also used to forecast inflows for 2011, indicating a secondary wet year for the Baishan Reservoir in 2011, similar to that experienced in 1991. A secondary wet year was also forecast for the Nierji station in 2011, similar to that experienced during 1983. According to the nature of influencing factors, mechanisms and forecasting methods and the service objects, mid-to long-term hydrological forecasting can be divided into two classes:mid-to long-term runoff forecasting, and severe floods and droughts forecasting. The former can be applied to quantitative forecasting of runoff, which has important applications for water release schedules. The latter, i.e., qualitative disaster forecasting, is important for flood control and drought relief. Practical methods for forecasting severe droughts and floods are discussed in this paper.

Flood and Waterlogging Monitoring over Huaihe River Basin by AMSR-E Data Analysis

In this paper, we investigated the potential of Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) for flood monitoring. The proposed approach was based on the polarized ratio index (PRI), which was computed by using AMSR-E data at 37GHz, vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperature values and the water surface fraction (WSF) got by using the PRI at 37GHz. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrora-diometer (MODIS) data were used to validate the WSF values. The analysis of flood and waterlogging using the WSF map on July 6, 2003 indicates that the use of WSF for flood and waterlogging disaster assessment is feasible. Utilizing the correlation of WSF derived from AMSR-E and water area derived from MODIS, the water area of the Huaihe River Basin were computed by only using AMSR-E data in the summer of 2003, which overcame the influence of cloud on water estimation using MODIS data during flood.

Torrential flood prevention in the Kolubara river basin

One of the most vulnerable parts to natural hazards in Serbia is Kolubara river basin. In the past, during the period from 1929 to 2013, 121 torrential flood events in the Kolubara river basin were recorded which show that this territory is extremely vulnerable to the torrential floods. The extreme event which occurred in May 2014 causing the catastrophic material damages and casualties was the latest and historical flood. The analysis of natural conditions in the Kolubara basin uniformly showed that this area is predisposed to a greater number of torrential floods due to its geomorphological, hydrological and land use properties. Torrential floods are closely related to the intensity and spatial distribution of erosive processes in the upper part of the Kolubara basin. The estimation of soil erosion potential is generally achieved by Erosion Potential Model(EPM). For the purposes of determining the degree of torrential properties in various water streams in the Kolubara basin, the calculation ofsusceptibility to torrential floods was assessed by Flash Flood Potential Index(FFPI). More than half of the basin area(57.2%) is located within the category of very weak and weak erosion(Z_(sr) = 0.35), but the category of medium erosion is geospatially very common. Such a distribution of medium erosion category provides conditions for generating, i.e. production of sediment which would boost torrential properties of water streams. After the classification of the obtained FFPI values it was determined that 25% of the Kolubara basin is very susceptible to torrents and this data should be seriously taken into consideration. Based on the analyses, the best and most successful manner of defence is prevention which consists of the integrated river basin management system(integrated torrent control system) so that technical works in hydrographic networks of torrents and biological and biotechnical works on the slope of the basin would be the best solution. Permanent control of erosive and torrential processes in the river basin will be not only important for flood control but it can also protect the existing and future water reservoirs and retentions fromsiltation with erosion sediment which is of great significance to the water management, agriculture, energy sector, and the entire society.

Trends of Extreme Flood Events in the Pearl River Basin during 1951-2010

The study investigated the trend of extreme flood events in the Pearl River basin during 1951-2010. Stream flow data at 23 gauging stations were used for the study. The Pearson type III distribution was selected for the flood frequency analysis. Results indicate that extreme flood events increase significantly in the Pearl River Basin since 1980. At the 23 gauging stations, there are 16 (70%) stations show positive (increasing) trends in 1981-2010. Most of the 16 stations are located along the West River and North River. While 7 (30%) stations show negative (decreasing) trends, and are found in the East River and the southeast region of the West River Basin.

Flash flood hazard mapping: A pilot case study in Xiapu River Basin, China

Flash flood hazard mapping is a supporting component of non-structural measures for flash flood prevention. Pilot case studies are necessary to develop more practicable methods for the technical support systems of flash flood hazard mapping. In this study, the headwater catchment of the Xiapu River Basin in central China was selected as a pilot study area for flash flood hazard mapping. A conceptual distributed hydrological model was developed for flood calculation based on the framework of the Xinanjiang model, which is widely used in humid and semi-humid regions in China. The developed model employs the geomorphological unit hydrograph method, which is extremely valuable when simulating the overland flow process in ungauged catchments, as compared with the original Xinanjiang model. The model was tested in the pilot study area, and the results agree with the measured data on the whole. After calibration and validation, the model is shown to be a useful tool for flash flood calculation. A practicable method for flash flood hazard mapping using the calculated peak discharge and digital elevation model data was presented, and three levels of flood hazards were classified. The resulting flash flood hazard maps indicate that the method successfully predicts the spatial distribution of flash flood hazards, and it can meet the current requirements in China.

Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model in Dongting Lake Basin,China

This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ATMOSPHERIC HEATING SOURCE/SINK ANOMALIES OF ASIAN MONSOON AND FLOOD/DROUGHT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN IN THE MEIYU PERIOD

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and a 30-year precipitation dataset of observed daily rainfall from 109 gauge stations are utilized in this paper.Using the REOF we analyzed the spatial distribution of precipitation in the 109 stations in the Yangtze River Basin in Meiyu periods from 1978 to 2007.The result showed that the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin can be divided into the south and north part.As a result,relationships between an atmospheric heating source(hereafter called <Q_1>) over the Asian region and the precipitation on the south and north side of Yangtze River in Meiyu periods were separately studied in this paper.The results are shown as follows.The flood/drought to the north of Yangtze River(NYR) was mainly related to the <Q_1> over the East Asia summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the Philippines through Western Pacific and the south China was weakened(strengthened),it would probably result in the flood(drought) in NYR;and the precipitation on the south side of Yangtze River(SYR)was related to the <Q_1> over the east Asia and Indian summer monsoon region:when the <Q_1> over the areas from south China to the northern East China Sea and Yellow Sea and south-eastern Japan was strengthened(weakened),and the <Q_1> over the areas from the Bay of Bengal to south-eastern Tibetan Plateau was weakened(strengthened),it will lead to flood(drought) in SYR.

Application of a Coupled Land Surface-Hydrological Model to Flood Simulation in the Huaihe River Basin of China

A hydrological simulation in the Huaihe River Basin(HRB) was investigated using two different models: a coupled land surface hydrological model(CLHMS), and a large-scale hydrological model(LSX-HMS). The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset and observed precipitation data were used as meteorological inputs. The simulation results from both models were compared in terms of flood processes forecasting during high flow periods in the summers of 2003 and 2007, and partial high flow periods in 2000. The comparison results showed that the simulated streamflow by CLHMS model agreed well with the observations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients larger than 0.76, in both periods of 2000 at Lutaizi and Bengbu stations in the HRB, while the skill of the LSX-HMS model was relatively poor. The simulation results for the high flow periods in 2003 and 2007 suggested that the CLHMS model can simulate both the peak time and intensity of the hydrological processes, while the LSX-HMS model provides a delayed flood peak. These results demonstrated the importance of considering the coupling between the land surface and hydrological module in achieving better predictions for hydrological processes, and CLHMS was proven to be a promising model for future applications in flood simulation and forecasting.

Water vapor transport over China and its relationship with drought and flood in Yangtze River Basin

The characteristics of water vapor transport(WVT) over China and its relationship with precipitation anomalies in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB) are analyzed by using the upper-air station data in China and ECMWF reanalysis data in summer from 1981 to 2002.The results indicate that the first mode of the vertically integrated WVT is significant whose spatial distribution presents water vapor convergence or divergence in the YRB.When the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) is strong and shifts southward and westward, the Indian Monsoon Low Pressure(IMLP) is weak, and the northern part of China stands behind the middle and high latitude trough, a large amount of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal(BOB), the South China Sea(SCS) and the western Pacific forms a strong and steady southwest WVT band and meets the strong cold water vapor from northern China in the YRB, thus it is likely to cause flood in the YRB.When WPSH is weak and shifts northward and eastward, IMLP is strong, and there is nearly straight west wind over the middle and high latitude, it is unfavorable for oceanic vapor extending to China and no steady and strong southwest WVT exists in the region south of the YRB.Meanwhile, the cold air from northern China is weak and can hardly be transported to the YRB.This brings on no obvious water vapor convergence, and then less precipitation in the YRB.

Development of Flood Forecasting System Using Statistical and ANN Techniques in the Downstream Catchment of Mahanadi Basin, India

The floods in river Mahanadi delta are due to either dam release of Hirakud or due to contribution of intercepted catchment between Hirakud dam and delta. It is seen from post-Hirakud periods (1958) that out of 19 floods 14 are due to intercepted catchment contribution. The existing flood forecasting systems are mostly for upstream catchment, forecasting the inflow to reservoir, whereas the downstream catchment is devoid of a sound flood forecasting system. Therefore, in this study an attempt has been made to develop a workable forecasting system for downstream catchment. Instead of taking the flow time series concurrent flood peaks of 12 years of base and forecasting stations with its corresponding travel time are considered for analysis. Both statistical method and ANN based approach are considered for finding the peak to reach at delta head with its corresponding travel time. The travel time has been finalized adopting clustering techniques, there by differentiating high, medium and low peaks. The method is simple and it does not take into consideration the rainfall and other factors in the intercepted catchment. A comparison between both methods are tested and it is found that the ANN methods are better beyond the calibration range over statistical method and the efficiency of either methods reduces as the prediction reach is extended. However, it is able to give the peak discharge at delta head before 24 hour to 37 hour for high to low peaks.

Comparative Analysis on Flood Cause in the Nenjiang Basin between 2013 and 1998

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze and contrast flood cause in Nenjiang Basin between 2013 and 1998.[Method]Based on meteorological and hydrological data in and around Nenjiang Basin,geographic information system as data processing platform,statistical methods such as synthesis analysis and correlation analysis were combined to contrast and analyze the flood cause in the Nenjiang Basin between 2013 and1998.[Result]The similarities of two floods in Nenjiang Basin were that rainstorm frequency and summer precipitation were more,and many large and medium-sized reservoirs which undertook the flood control task were running above flood level.In order to protect the safety of reservoir dam,flood discharge volume increased.And the difference was external forcing factor which caused atmospheric circulation abnormality,thus the impact factors of summer more rainfall were not the same.The main reason for more precipitation in Nenjiang Basin in summer of 2013：The northeast cold vortex activity was frequent,and the path was by north;water vapor transport was sufficient at 850 hPa;at 500 hPa,the Eurasian zonal circulation was weak,the West Pacific subtropical high pressure abnormally moved northward,blocking high of the Sea of Okhotsk was obvious,and Heilongjiang region was controlled by negative anomaly in midsummer;East Asian westerly jet location was abnormal at 200 hPa,and East Asian summer monsoon was strong.[Conclusion]The research had very important significance for understanding occurrence rule of flood and improving disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities in Nenjiang Basin.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.