Study of evaluation method for the overseas oil and gas investment based on risk compensation

The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.

Risk measurement of international oil and gas projects based on the Value at Risk method

International oil and gas projects feature high capital-intensity, high risks and contract diversity. Therefore, in order to help decision makers make more reasonable decisions under uncertainty, it is necessary to measure the risks of international oil and gas projects. For this purpose, this paper constructs a probabilistic model that is based on the traditional economic evaluation model, and introduces value at risk(VaR) which is a valuable risk measure tool in finance, and applies Va R to measure the risks of royalty contracts, production share contracts and service contracts of an international oil and gas project. Besides, this paper compares the influences of different risk factors on the net present value(NPV) of the project by using the simulation results. The results indicate:(1) risks have great impacts on the project's NPV, therefore, if risks are overlooked, the decision may be wrong.(2) A simulation method is applied to simulate the stochastic distribution of risk factors in the probabilistic model. Therefore, the probability is related to the project's NPV, overcoming the inherent limitation of the traditional economic evaluation method.(3) VaR is a straightforward risk measure tool, and can be applied to evaluate the risks of international oil and gas projects. It is helpful for decision making.

Bargaining strategy of oil companies in international oil and gas development Projects-Based on a bilateral bargaining model

Bargaining between the host country and oil companies is very common to international oil and gas development projects.The existence of information asymmetry gives the host country an endogenous bargaining advantage.Foreign oil companies might change their unfavorable negotiating position by changing the order of bidding and adjusting bidding strategies.This paper introduces both factors into a bilateral bargaining model to study the impact of information asymmetry and bidding order on the strategy and equilibrium returns of oil companies.According to the ownership of the right to bid first,two scenarios are designed for the model to compare the equilibrium returns of the host country and oil companies.The results show that:1)There is a first-mover advantage in the process of bilateral bidding,so oil companies better bid first;2)The information asymmetry will lead to a higher nominal income ratio of oil companies and a lower nominal income ratio of the host country,but it doesn’t affect the total income ratio at all.

Technological progress and development directions of PetroChina overseas oil and gas field production

This study reviews the development history of PetroChina’s overseas oil and gas field development technologies, summarizes the characteristic technologies developed, and puts forward the development goals and technological development directions of overseas business to overcome the challenges met in overseas oil and gas production. In the course of PetroChina’s overseas oil and gas field production practice of more than 20 years, a series of characteristic technologies suitable for overseas oil and gas fields have been created by combining the domestic mature oil and gas field production technologies with the features of overseas oil and gas reservoirs, represented by the technology for high-speed development and stabilizing oil production and controlling water rise for overseas sandstone oilfields, high efficiency development technology for large carbonate oil and gas reservoirs and foamy oil depletion development technology in use of horizontal wells for extra-heavy oil reservoirs. Based on in-depth analysis of the challenges faced by overseas oil and gas development and technological requirements, combined with the development trends of oil and gas development technologies in China and abroad, overseas oil and gas development technologies in the future are put forward, including artificial intelligence reservoir prediction and 3 D geological modeling, secondary development and enhanced oil recovery(EOR) of overseas sandstone oilfields after high speed development, water and gas injection to improve oil recovery in overseas carbonate oil and gas reservoirs, economic and effective development of overseas unconventional oil and gas reservoirs, efficient development of marine deep-water oil and gas reservoirs. The following goals are expected to be achieved: keep the enhanced oil recovery(EOR) technology for high water-cut sandstone oilfield at international advanced level, and make the development technology for carbonate oil and gas reservoirs reach the international advanced level, and the development technologies for unconventional and marine deep-water oil and gas reservoirs catch up the level of international leading oil companies quickly.

Technologcial progress and development directions of PetroChina overseas oil and gas exploration

Through a comprehensive review of PetroChina overseas oil and gas exploration of more than 20 years,we systematically summarize the development history,development status and application results of the overseas oil and gas exploration theory and technology.Overseas oil and gas exploration has experienced four stages,exploratory exploration,progressive exploration,risk exploration and efficient exploration.The overseas exploration theory and technology have also gone through the initially direct borrow of domestic mature technology to the integrated application,and then to the research innovation based on overseas features.A series of overseas oil and gas exploration theories and technologies represented by theories and technologies for passive rift basins,salt basins and foreland basin slopes,and global oil and gas geology and resource evaluation have been established.On the basis of deep analysis of the future overseas exploration development demand for the technology,and combined with the domestic and overseas future development trend of theory and technology,this paper systematically discusses the overseas exploration difficulties,technical requirements and the main development directions and aims of exploration theory and technology in the future:(1)Develop conventional onshore oil and gas exploration techniques continuously for the overseas exploration and keep them at an internationally advanced level.(2)Develop the global oil and gas resources and assets integrated optimization evaluation technology and its information system construction project innovatively to reach the international leading level.(3)Develop the deep water exploration technology integratively and narrow the gap with the world’s advanced level.

Development characteristics, models and strategies for overseas oil and gas fields

Based on about 20 years of accumulated experience and knowledge of oil and gas field development in overseas countries and regions for China's oil companies, the development features, ideas, models and plan designing strategies of overseas oil and gas fields were comprehensively summarized. Overseas oil and gas field development has ten major features, such as non-identity project resource, diversity of contract type, complexity of cooperation model, and so on. The overseas oil and gas field development aims at the maximization of production and benefit during the limited contract period, so the overseas oil and gas field development models are established as giving priority to production by natural energy, building large-scale production capacity, putting into production as soon as possible, realizing high oil production recovery rate, and achieving rapid payback period of investment. According to the overseas contract mode, a set of strategies for overseas oil and gas field development plans were made. For tax systems contracts, the strategy is to adopt the mode of "first fat and then thinner, easier in the first and then harder", that is, early investment pace, production increase rate, development workload and production were decided by the change of tax stipulated in the contract. For production share contracts, the strategy is to give priority to high production with a few wells at a high production recovery rate to increase the cost-oil and shorten the period of payback. For technical service contracts, the strategy is that the optimal production target and workload of the project were determined by the return on investment, so as to ensure that the peak production and stable production periods meet the contract requirements.

Evaluation of the oil and gas preservation conditions, source rocks, and hydrocarbongenerating potential of the Qiangtang Basin: New evidence from the scientific drilling project

The Qiangtang Basin of the Tibetan Plateau,located in the eastern Tethys tectonic domain,is the largest new marine petroliferous region for exploration in China.The scientific drilling project consisting primarily of well QK-1 and its supporting shallow boreholes for geological surveys(also referred to as the Project)completed in recent years contributes to a series of new discoveries and insights into the oil and gas preservation conditions and source rock evaluation of the Qiangtang Basin.These findings differ from previous views that the Qiangtang Basin has poor oil and gas preservation conditions and lacks high-quality source rocks.As revealed by well QK-1 and its supporting shallow boreholes in the Project,the Qiangtang Basin hosts two sets of high-quality regional seals,namely an anhydrite layer in the Quemo Co Formation and the gypsum-bearing mudstones in the Xiali Formation.Moreover,the Qiangtang Basin has favorable oil and gas preservation conditions,as verified by the comprehensive study of the sealing capacity of seals,basin structure,tectonic uplift,magmatic activity,and groundwater motion.Furthermore,the shallow boreholes have also revealed that the Qiangtang Basin has high-quality hydrocarbon source rocks in the Upper Triassic Bagong Formation,which are thick and widely distributed according to the geological and geophysical data.In addition,the petroleum geological conditions,such as the type,abundance,and thermal evolution of organic matter,indicate that the Qiangtang Basin has great hydrocarbon-generating potential.

Chinese Oil Companies＇ Overseas Cooperation in 2016

The paper analyzed the development and features of China's oil companies' overseas business in 2016.Despite the plummeting crude price and a weak global economy,these companies managed to do well in foreign countries.They steadily increased their shares of oil and gas in overseas oil and gas projects with their distinctive and unique ways:the three state-owned oil companies had focused on the countries involved in the One-BeltOne-Road Initiative,and others had been stressed more on international cooperation in a broader sense and areas.The small-and middle-scale companies had been matured and grew during the process.The central and local governments also played indispensable roles by providing need support for the cooperations.

Analysis of the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021

The global exploration investment, new oil and gas discoveries, exploration business adjustment strategies of oil companies in 2021, and future favorable exploration domains are systematically analyzed using commercial databases such as IHS and public information of oil companies. It has been found that the world oil and gas exploration situation in 2021 has continued the downturn since the outbreak of COVID-19. The investment and drilling workload decreased slightly, but the success rate of exploration wells, especially deepwater exploration wells, increased significantly, and the newly discovered reserves increased slightly compared with last year. Deep waters of the passive continental margin basins are still the leading sites for discovering conventional large and medium-sized oil and gas fields. The conventional oil and gas exploration in deep formations of onshore petroliferous basins has been keeping a good state, with tight/shale oil and gas discoveries made in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other countries. While strengthening the exploration and development of local resources, national, international, and independent oil companies have been focusing on major overseas frontiers using their advantages, including risk exploration in deep waters and natural gas. Future favorable exploration directions in the three major frontiers, the global deep waters, deep onshore formations, and unconventional resources, have been clarified. Four suggestions are put forward for the global exploration business of Chinese oil companies: first, a farm in global deepwater frontier basins in advance through bidding at a low cost and adopt the “dual exploration model” after making large-scale discoveries;second, enter new blocks of emerging hot basins in the world through farm-in and other ways, to find large oil and gas fields quickly;third, cooperate with national oil companies of the resource host countries in the form of joint research and actively participate exploration of deep onshore formations of petroliferous basins;fourth, track tight/shale oil and gas cooperation opportunities in a few countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and take advantage of mature domestic theories and technologies to farm in at an appropriate time.

The Oil Price Crash of 2014: Implications for a Multi-Billion Dollar LNG Project

The price of oil is probably the single most important economic variable in the global economy. The rapid drop in price of oil in 2014 set analysts and commentators busy, trying to predict its trajectory and implications. More than $150 billion of investments have been cancelled by oil companies in 2015 due to the low price of oil, with more spending cuts to follow in 2016. The oil price decline was supposed to catalyze a transfer of wealth from oil-producing countries to oil-consuming countries. It was estimated that a $10-a-barrel fall in the oil price transfers around 0.5 percent of world GDP from oil exporters to oil importers. The recent oil price collapse has far-reaching implications for capital projects in the oil and gas industry. The impact of a fall in oil price is analyzed for a large capital investment project, involving the construction and operation of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant. The breakeven price (BEP) of oil for the project is determined.

Large Potential Exists in China's Oil & Gas Transportation System

As China in the decades ahead is to go through significant reorganization in the power sector and the petrochemical industry will see considerable growth,the transportation infrastructure for petroleum and gas should have a new shape. Implementing the largest infrastructure projects and creating on this basis a modern transportation network will not only see a new reincarnation of traditional industrial centers, but also open wider opportunities for regional development.

Key Engineering Highlights of Facilities ＆ Equipment for Oil ＆ Gas Production in Kuwait Oil Company

The paper provides an insight into key engineering aspects of Kuwait Oil Company＇s existing projects, facilities and equipment both current and from nearly 30 years of projects development. It deals with engineering features of mainly process and mechanical equipment, both static and rotating besides others, used for collection, separation, desalting, heat transfer, chemical treatment, storage, transmission, pipelines and similar facilities utilized for upstream oil and gas production, both sweet and sour. Engineering highlights include certain technological developments, metallurgical aspects, few best practices and lessons learnt as well. Seven （7） case studies are included towards the end that show case some of the engineering aspects of facility equipment, lessons learned from their engineering and conclusions drawn that, emphasize the need to focus on initial, preliminary engineering aspects of projects and could provide useful tips for oil and gas engineers and designers.

海外油田新项目商务谈判策略实践与启示

2015—2020年,中国石油公司参与了一个海外上游新项目开发的前期商务谈判过程,与国际石油公司A公司合作,同资源国展开了较为艰难的磋商。最终项目因资源国方面因素而搁浅。介绍了该项目的顶层设计和商务谈判思路,从技术开发方案谈判、合同模式谈判、联合作业协议谈判、框架协议谈判4个方面阐述谈判的具体方案和实际进展,剖析了多方博弈中的谈判策略和技巧。该商务谈判的实践案例为中国石油公司未来参与同类型新项目谈判提供了经验和启示。

海外油气田开发新项目评价方法研究

中国石油公司参与国际竞争最关键的一步就是选准选好新项目。新项目开拓程序包括信息获取—资料收集—快速筛选—技术经济评价—决策—投标—谈判—项目跟踪—接管的全过程,可分为机会研究、评价决策和谈判接管3个阶段。项目机会研究中的快速筛选方法是以公司的投资政策为依据、对制约项目的关键因素进行审查,根据项目的优势和技术难度,筛选出进一步进行详细技术经济评价项目。技术经济评价主要针对项目类型确定评价技术路线,油气开发项目以有效储量及潜力评估为核心,在开发工程及对开发难度进行风险分析的基础上,根据合同模式研究项目收益大小。新项目综合优选排队方法是在建立评价指标体系的基础上,根据影响项目的关键技术经济指标,利用模糊综合评价模型实现对新项目的综合评估排序。

基于解释结构模型的海外油气开发项目风险产生机理研究

为了有效管理海外油气开发项目的风险,运用解释结构模型揭示了海外油气开发项目风险产生机理.在明确海外油气开发项目风险因素的基础上,建立了项目风险产生机理的解释结构模型,具体包括建立风险因素的邻接矩阵、求出可达矩阵和骨干矩阵、建立系统结构模型.通过最终的结构模型,可以看出海外油气开发项目风险因素之间层级关系,明确风险因素之间的作用路径,进而揭示海外油气开发项目风险产生机理.

海外油气项目财务风险分析及对策

中国石油企业全面参与海外油气竞争的局面正初步形成,国际化经营尤其是海外油气项目面临的财务风险也越来越大,迫切需要对各类财务风险进行透彻分析、评价和管理。在系统分析价格、汇率、利率、信用、关联交易、税收、会计信息、流动性、资金安全、高风险业务风险等10项财务风险的基础上,应用多层级模糊综合评价法对海外油气项目的财务风险做了评价,得出税收、价格和汇率风险是目前海外油气项目面临的前3位财务风险,当前的财务风险处于中等略偏高水平的评价,并给出了税收、价格和汇率风险的剩余风险值。最后提出了应对财务风险的策略和措施:①海外油气项目面临的财务风险主要来自外部,较难控制,需要进行跟踪研究、积极适应和应对。②对于内部的财务风险,则要强化全面预算管理和制度建设,增强节点控制,规范运作;开发信息系统,加强过程控制,提高监测预警水平;完善人员管理,提高职业素质和能力,建立风险控制体系,提升风险管理水平。

基于AHP的大庆海外石油钻探项目风险评价指标体系研究

我国石油企业在承揽海外石油钻探项目的过程中,为确保工程能顺利进行,需要进行风险预警管理。基于150份完整有效的调查问卷数据,以大庆海外石油钻探项目风险管理为研究对象,采用文献查阅法、问卷调查法、德尔菲法专家法、AHP层次分析法等研究方法,对大庆海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理进行了研究,构建了海外石油钻探项目的风险评价指标体系。研究表明:政治经济风险对海外石油钻探项目影响最大,社会文化风险影响最小;政治经济风险中,经济风险的影响远大于政治风险的影响;财务风险中,与获利相关的直接风险大于间接风险;地质条件工程与技术风险中,地质条件风险大于技术风险;社会文化风险中,与东道国语言差异造成的风险影响最大。最后,提出了相应地对策建议。

海外油气项目效益勘探评价方法

以中国石油企业海外项目勘探实践为基础,结合典型国际石油公司案例,提出效益勘探的内涵。认为效益勘探是一种勘探理念和勘探程序,既是过程也是结果,核心是“以效益为中心”,将效益前置并贯穿于油气勘探全过程。将海外勘探项目划分为风险勘探、滚动勘探与精细勘探三个阶段,针对不同勘探阶段项目,建立地上风险、地下风险和吸引力这3个一级指标和11个二级指标的效益勘探指标体系。依据风险系数与吸引力的不同匹配,得出项目的4类评价结果组合,提出不同类型勘探项目的投资策略,为勘探新项目获取和在运营项目的优化提供决策支撑。通过动态综合评价项目风险、潜力和价值,视评价结果宜进则进、宜退则退,实现存量资产高质量发展与整体业务可持续发展的兼顾。

低油价下海外油气项目经济评价策略分析

当前低油价背景下,海外油气项目经济评价的环境、目标及作用都在发生着深刻变化。经济评价已贯穿项目的全过程,全方位为投资和经营决策服务;项目投资环境日趋复杂,不确定性与风险分析成为重点;多目标、多层次、多方案评价成为常态,为决策提供客观依据。在不同阶段和不同决策目标下需要采用不同的评价方法、评价指标和策略。对于已进入的项目,可采用增量效益与费用评价方法,开展投资决策时机分析,设定项目"止损"原则;对于拟进入的项目,则应加强情景分析研究并重视产品市场的分析。力求用科学、客观、全面的评价方法,提高海外油气项目投资决策的科学性与前瞻性。