Multi-scenario Simulation for 2060 and Driving Factors of the Eco-spatial Carbon Sink in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration, China

Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made.

The application of geostatistics in grain size trend analysis： A case study of eastern Beibu Gulf

There are 71 surface sediment samples collected from the eastern Beibu Gulf. The moment parameters （i.e. mean size, sorting and skewness） were obtained after applying grain size analysis. The geostatistical analysis was then applied to study the spatial autocorrelation for these parameters; while range, a parameter in the semivariogram that meters the scale of spatial autocorrelation, was estimated. The results indicated that the range for sorting coefficient was physically meaningful. The trend vectors calculated from grain size trend analysis model were consistent with the annual ocean circulation patterns and sediment transport rates according to previous studies. Therefore the range derived from the semivariogram of mean size can be used as the characteristic distance in the grain size trend analysis, which may remove the bias caused by the traditional way of basing on experiences or testing methods to get the characteristic distance. Hence the results from geostatistical analysis can also offer useful information for the determination of sediment sampling density in the future field work.

Three-D numerical simulation of wind-driven current and density current in the Beibu Gulf

The Casulli's difference scheme was introduced into the three-dimensional ocean model in the present paper, and the wind-driven current and thermohaline current were simulated. The results show that, southwesterly monsoon in summer induces a clockwise circulation in the Beibu Gulf, and the density gradient induces a counter-clockwise one; but the density current is more intense than the wind- driven one in summer, espeially in surface layer. In addition, the northeasterly monsoon in winter in- duces a counter-clockwise circulation. The simulated results don't support the traditional condusion that there is a clockwise circulation in the Beibu Gulf in summer and a counter-clockwise one in winter, but support the statement that a counterclockwise circulation exists in the Beibu Gulf all year round.

The spatial distribution of major and trace elements of surface sediments in the northeastern Beibu Gulf of the South China Sea

A multi-index analysis including grain size, major and trace elements is performed on the surface sediments from the northeastern Beibu Gulf to trace the sources of the sediments and to understand the controlling factors for elements distribution. The mean grain size exhibits a wide variation ranging from 0.09Φ to 8.05Φ with an average value of 5.33Φ. The average contents of major elements descend in an order of c(SiO_2)>c(Al_2O_3)>c(Fe_2O_3)>c(CaO)>c(MgO)>c(K_2O)>c(Na_2O)>c(TiO_2)>c(P_2O_5)>c(MnO), while those of trace elements exhibit a descending order of c(Sr)>c(Rb)>c(V)>c(Zn)>c(Cr)>c(Pb)>c(Ni)>c(Cu)>c(As). On the basis of elementary distribution characteristics and statistical analyses, the study area is divided into the four zones: Zone I is located in the northeastern coastal area of the gulf, which receives large amount of fluvial materials from local rivers in Guangxi and Guangdong, China, and the Qiongzhou Strait; Zone Ⅱ is located in the center of the study area, where surface sediments exhibits a multiple source; Zone Ⅲ is located in the Qiongzhou Strait, where surface sediments are dominated by materials from the Zhujiang River and Hainan; Zone IV is located in the southwest of the study area, where surface sediments are mainly originated from the Red River and Hainan. The statistical analyses of sediment geochemical characteristics reveal that the grain size, which is mainly influenced by hydrodynamics and mineral composition of terrigenous materials, is the leading factor controlling the elementary distribution.Meanwhile, impacts from anthropogenic activities and marine biogenic process will also be taken into consideration.

Responses of the circulation and water mass in the Beibu Gulf to the seasonal forcing regimes

In the past 20 a, the gulf-scale circulation in the Beibu Gulf has been commonly accepted to be driven by a wind stress or density gradient. However, using three sensitive experiments based on a three-dimensional baroclinic model that was verified by observations, the formation mechanisms were revealed： the circula- tion in the northern Beibu Gulf was triggered by the monsoon wind throughout a year; whereas the southern gulf circulation was driven by the monsoon wind and South China Sea （SCS） circulation in winter and sum- mer, respectively. The force of heat flux and tidal harmonics had a strong effect on the circulation strength and range, as well as the local circulation structures, but these factors did not influence the major circulation structure in the Beibu Gulf. On the other hand, the Beibu Gulf Cold Water Mass （BGCWM） would disappear without the force of heat flux because the seasonal thermocline layer was generated by the input of heat so that the vertical mixing between the upper hot water and lower cold water was blocked. In addition, the wind-induced cyclonic gyre in the northern gulf was favorable to the existence of the BGCWM. However, the coverage area of the BGCWM was increased slightly without the force of the tidal harmonics. When the model was driven by the monthly averaged surface forcing, the circulation structure was changed to some extent, and the coverage area of the BGCWM almost extended outwards 100%, implying the circulation and water mass in the Beibu Gulf had strong responses to the temporal resolution of the surface forces.

Roles of fishing and climate change in long-term fish species succession and population dynamics in the outer Beibu Gulf,South China Sea

A prevailing,controversial hypothesis is that fishing pressure has played a greater role than climatic and environmental drivers,in changing fish species succession and biomass fluctuation in the South China Sea(SCS).Based on otter trawl survey data from 1959 to 2010 in the outer Beibu Gulf(OBG),northern SCS,large seasonal and interannual variation is reported for fish species composition,the proportional abundances of dominant taxa,and fish biomass.Generalized additive models are developed to quantify relationships between fish biomass and the external factors of fishing pressure and climate change.Fishing pressure proved to be the main driver of sharp declines in demersal fish stocks,with high-value species being replaced by low-value ones over time.Abrupt decreases in fish biomass during the years of 1993 and 1998 correspond to El Nino events,with climate change possibly the main driver of proportional representation of pelagic species in fisheries trawl catch.The need to differentiate impacts of fishing and environmental drivers on fish species with different life history strategies is stressed to better understand fish community dynamics.

Geochemistry and petrogenesis of Quaternary volcanism from the islets in the eastern Beibu Gulf: evidence for Hainan plume

Some of the islets in the eastern Beibu Gulf are covered by Quaternary volcano strata. The rock samples from these islets mainly consist of quartz tholeiites （at Shenjiandao）, olivine tholeiites （at Linshidao and Xieyang- dao） and alkali basalts （at Yangpubi and Jianshidao）, and basically represent four periods of the Quaternary volcanism of Hainan Island and its adjacent regions. Except for the samples from Shenjiandao, most of the Quaternary volcanics of these islets belong to alkali magma series. The trace element characteristics of all of these samples show they are OIB （oceanic island basalt） -like, which implies that their deep geodynamic setting may be related to a mantle plume. The Sr-Nd-Pb isotopic compositions show that the mantle source beneath the Quaternary strata can be regarded as a result of binary mixing between a depleted, DMM （de- pleted MORB mantle）-like source and an enriched mantle type 2 （EM2）. The EM2 may be originated from the Hainan mantle plume, and has been metasomatized by carbonaceous fluids released from ancient re- cycled oceanic crust at an asthenospheric mantle level. These features, together with typical trace element ratios, reflect that the parent magma was not subjected to crustal contamination during its ascent to the surface. This study provides further petrological and geochemical evidence for the existence of the Hainan mantle plume.

Distribution and dispersal pattern of clay minerals in surface sediments,eastern Beibu Gulf,South China Sea

Clay minerology of sediments are useful in determining distribution, sources and dispersal routes of fine-grained sediments. In the present paper, clay minerals of surface sediments throughout the eastern part of Beibu Gulf has been investigated to reveal sources and transport of detrital fine- grained sediments. Four distinct clay mineral suites were observed from cluster analysis of clay mineral compositions of the samples. From the distribution pattern of clay minerals, we conclude that kaolinte in the eastern gulf is mainly derived from South China Landmass; Smectite could not be transported mainly by surface current from north-western Hainan Island, and maybe minor portion of it from Red River; Illite is mainly transported by the currents fl＇om South China Sea. Chlorite has two sources, namely South China Sea and South China Landmass. The Zhujiang River derived sediments could not be one of the sources for the clay mineral here, because of very different composition and ratios. The distribution pattern of clay minerals in the eastern Beibu Gulf is mainly controlled by fine-grained sediment source and local currents. The Silt/Clay, Smectite/Kaolinte, and Smetite/（Chlorite＋Illite） ratios could be used as indicators of fine-grained sediment dispersal in the gulf.

Quantitative model of trophic interactions in Beibu Gulf ecosystem in the northern South China Sea

A mass-balanced model was constructed to determine the flow-energy in a community of fishes and invertebrates in the Beibu Gulf, northern South China Sea using Ecopath and Ecosim software. Input parameters were taken from the literature, except for the biomass of fish groups which was obtained from trawl surveys during October 1997 to May 1999 in the study area. The model consisted of 16 functional groups （boxes）, including one marine mammal and seabirds, each representing organisms with a similar role in the food web, and only covered the main trophic flow in the Beibu Gulf ecosystem. The results showed that the food web of Beibu Gulf was dominated by the detrital path and benthic invertebrates played a significant role in transferring energy from the detritus to higher trophic levels; phytoplankton was a primary producer and most utilized as a food source. Fractional trophic levels ranged from 1.0 to 4.08 with marine mammals occupying the highest trophic level. Using network analysis, the system network was mapped into a linear food chain and six discrete trophic levels were found with a mean transfer efficiency of 16.7% from the detritus, 16.2% from the primary producer within the ecosystem. The biomass density of the commercially utilized species estimated by the model is 8.46 t/km^2, only O. 48% of the net primary production.

The numerical investigation of seasonal variation of the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf and its mechanisms

A wave-tide-circulation coupled model based on the Princeton Ocean Model is established to explore the seasonal variation of the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf and its mechanisms. The results show that the cold water mass starts forming in March, reaches the maximum strength during June and July, and fades away since October. Strong mixing in winter transports the cold water from sea surface to bottom. The cold water mass remains in the bottom layer as the thermocline strengthens during spring, except for the shallow water where the themocline is broken by strong tidal mixing, which gradually separate the cold water mass from its surrounding warm water. Further analysis on the ocean current and stream function confirms that the cold water mass in the Beibu Gulf is locally developed, with an anticlockwise circulation caused by a strong temperature gradient. Sensitivity experiments reveal that the cold water mass is controlled by the sea surface heat flux, while the terrain and tidal mixing also play important roles.

Composition and ecological distribution of ichthyoplankton in eastern Beibu Gulf

Surveys were conducted in four seasons in the eastern Beibu Gulf from July 2006 to November 2007, to determine the ichthyoplankton composition, abundance, as well as environmental factors impacted on their spatiotemporal distributions. The fish eggs and larvae were sorted from 303 zooplankton quantitative samples, in which at least 1 order, 60 families, 31 genera and 61 species of fish eggs and larvae were identified. The species number was highest in summer whereas lowest in winter. With the most abundant fish egg （the average density was 2.41 ind./m3）, spring was the main spawning season, while the greatest mean density of fish larva was 1.35 ind./m3 in summer. In the whole year around, fish eggs had the trends to aggregate in the nearshore of Guangxi coast, fish larvae were more abundant in the northern water. Relationships between fish eggs and larvae abundance and environmental factors were analyzed by using the Yield-Density model. The spatio- temporal distribution of ichthyoplankton in eastern Beibu Gulf was closely related to the Chl a concentration, and the optimal temperature, salinity and Chl a were 19.4-21.7℃, 31.8-33.1 and 1.5-4.8 mg/m3, respectively. Additionally, the distribution of fish larvae could be effected by ocean currents in summer and autumn.

Effects of wave-current interaction on the waves, cold-water mass and transport of diluted water in the Beibu Gulf

Wave-current interaction and its effects on the hydrodynamic environment in the Beibu Gulf(BG) have been investigated via employing the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport(COAWST) modeling system. The model could simulate reasonable hydrodynamics in the BG when validated by various observations.Vigorous tidal currents refract the waves efficiently and make the seas off the west coast of Hainan Island be the hot spot where currents modulate the significant wave height dramatically. During summer, wave-enhanced bottom stress could weaken the near-shore component of the gulf-scale cyclonic-circulation in the BG remarkably, inducing two major corresponding adjustments: Model results reveal that the deep-layer cold water from the southern BG makes critical contribution to maintaining the cold-water mass in the northern BG Basin.However, the weakened background circulation leads to less cold water transported from the southern gulf to the northern gulf, which finally triggers a 0.2℃ warming in the cold-water mass area;In the top areas of the BG, the suppressed background circulation reduces the transport of the diluted water to the central gulf. Therefore, more freshwater could be trapped locally, which then triggers lower sea surface salinity(SSS) in the near-field and higher SSS in the far-field.

A survey of baroclinic tides in the Beibu Gulf in the South China Sea

The principal characteristics of the tides are investigated by a shipborne acoustic Doppler current Profiler at a fixed station located in the Beibu Gulf from 4 to 14 April 2003. Data analysis indicates that the diurnal tidal currents dominate local current variations at the observing site. Except the barotropic ME constituent, four principal tides comprise both back-and-forth barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents. The baroclinic tidal ellipse parameters vary with depth, showing complicate features, rather than monotonous features being figured. For baroclinic tidal constituents, vertical modes are different to each other. Similarly, the semi-major axes of the tidal constituents vary with depth. In the lower layer, a nonlinear regression approach is used to calculate and obtain the SEMA profiles of diurnal tidal constituents. Results show that in the thin bottom boundary layer, all of the parameters vary drastically with depth, totally distinguished from the vertical profiles above.

Counter-Wind Deep Current in the Northern Beibu Gulf in Boreal Winter

The Beibu Gulf is at an important geographical location and rich in gas, oil and biological resources. The observed currents showed that the current in the upper layer was opposite to that in the lower layer in boreal winter in the northern Beibu Gulf and it was northeastward in the lower layer. This northeastward current was reproduced by a 3 D baroclinic model in this study. It's found that the counter-wind deep current(referred to as ‘CWDC' hereinafter) strengthened from September to November but weakened from December to the following February. A closed meridional circulation in vertical direction was found in the northern Beibu Gulf, including CWDC, surface southwestward current, an upwelling, and a downwelling. The temporal variation process of the meridional circulation was similar to that of CWDC, with strength and range stronger in November and December than in other four months. Similar to the variation process of CWDC, the monsoon wind changed from weak easterly wind in September to strong northeasterly wind in November and December, and it was transformed into weak southeasterly wind in February again. The sensitive experiments showed that CWDC and the meridional circulation were controlled by the monsoon wind and were adjusted by heat flux-and tide-induced mixing, respectively. According to the momentum balance equation, it can be revealed the counter-wind deep current is a compensation current which is induced by the surface elevation gradient balanced by the Coriolis force, vertical diffusion and baroclinic pressure gradient.

Response of bedload transport, submarine topography, and dune internal structures to typhoon processes off Dongfang coast in the Beibu Gulf

Bedload sediment transport was estimated by the SEDTRANS96 model based on three-day hydrodynamics data obtained off the Dongfang coast in the Beibu Gulf during Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009. Bed- forms on the sea floor off the Dongfang coast and internal structures of a typical dune were interpreted to evaluate storm influences on individual dunes and the dune field. Results indicated that flow forcings and related bedload transport were both strengthened significantly due to Typhoon Ketsana. The measurements and modeling results, which mainly included three different stages, presented noticeable phasic variation. The three stages were dominated by tidal current （Period I）, tidal current combined with wind-induced waves （Period II）, and swells combined with tidal current and seaward flows （Period III）. This phasic varia- tion could be a common trait of hydrodynamics due to typhoons moving westwardly to the south of Hainan Island and Beibu Gulf in South China Sea. Results indicated that the maximum bedioad transport rate for every burst in Period III was almost 100 times larger than that in Period I and was ten times larger than that in Period II. However, the short-term increase in bedload transport induced by storms like Ketsana did not change the long-term evolution of dune morphology. Evidence was given by the internal structures of a typical dune, which revealed renewed modification under subsequent moderate conditions after storm ero- sion. Instead, storms may influence at different scales and regional allocation of sand dunes in some large areas because changes of the sea floor in large scales can hardly be recovered. More surveys during and after storm passage are also needed to document the level of positive contribution to forward migration.

Three-dimensional numerical simulation for tide and tidal current in the Beibu Gulf

By means of three dimensional POM model,which computes the eddy viscosity coefficient based on two order turbulent closed model,the tide and tidal current in the Beibu Gulf are simulated with fine grid.In the computed region,six islands are considered and the bottom friction coefficients are taken to be various values from the difference of sea region.Acquired tidal harmonic constants are compared with that of 81 tidal observatories.The absolute mean error of K 1 constituent amplitude is 4 6 cm and of the lag is 9°.The absolute mean error of O 1 constituent amplitude is 5 6 cm and of the lag is 7°.The absolute mean error of M 2 constituent amplitude is 6 2 cm and of the lag is 15°.The tide,tidal current,residual water level and tide induced residual current,as well as the vertial distribution of horizontal velocity in this sea region are analysed by the simulated results.

Petroleum Origins and Accumulation Patterns in the Weixinan Sag in the Beibu Gulf Basin,Using Subsag B as an Example

Crude oil has been discovered in the Paleogene and Neogene units of the Weixinan Sag in the Beibu Gulf Basin.To determine the source and accumulation mode of this crude oil,12 crude oil samples and 27 source rock samples were collected and an extensive organic geochemical analysis was conducted on them.Based on the geological conditions and the analytical results,the types,origins and accumulation patterns of crude oil in the study area were elucidated.Except for a shallowly-buried and biodegraded crude oil deposit in Neogene rocks,the crude oil samples in the study area were normal.All of the crude oils were derived from lacustrine source rocks.According to biomarker compositions,the crude oils could be divided into two families,A and B,distinctions that were reinforced by differences in carbon isotope composition and spatial distribution.Oil-source correlation analysis based on biomarkers revealed that Family A oils were derived from the mature oil shale at the bottom of the second member of the Liushagang Formation,while the Family B oils formed in the mature shale of the Liushagang Formation.The Family A oils,generated by oil shale,mainly migrated laterally along sand bodies and were then redistributed in adjacent reservoirs above and below the oil shale layer,as well as in shallow layers at high structural positions,occupying a wide distribution range.The Family B oils were generated by other shale units before migrating vertically along faults to form reservoirs nearby,resulting in a narrow distribution range.

Nutrients distribution and trophic status assessment in the northern Beibu Gulf, China

Using historical and 2010 field data, the distribution of nutrients in the northern Beibu Gulf of China is described. There was a decreasing trend in the concentration of nutrients from the north coast to offshore waters of the northern Beibu Gulf, reflecting the influence of inputs from land-based sources. High concentrations of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) and phosphate(PO 4-P) occurred mainly at Fangchenggang Bay, Qinzhou Bay, and Lianzhou Bay. Four different methods were used to assess eutrophication. The trophic status of the Beibu Gulf was characterized using the single factor, Eutrophication index(EI), Trophic index(TRIX) and Assessment of Estuarine Trophic Status(ASSETS) methods. Based on nutrient concentrations, 73.9% of DIN and 26.7% of PO 4-P samples exceeded the fourth grade Seawater Quality Standard of China. Eutrophication index values varied widely, but higher levels of eutrophication were generally found in bays and estuaries. TRIX values ranged from 2.61 to 7.27, with an average of 4.98, indicating a mesotrophic and moderately productive system. A positive correlation between TRIX and harmful algal species richness and abundance was observed. The ASSETS model evaluates eutrophication status based on a Pressure-State-Response approach, including three main indices: influencing factors, overall eutrophic condition, and future outlook. The Beibu Gulf was graded as moderate using ASSETS. The single factor and Chinese nutrient index methods were considered inadequate for the assessment of trophic status. TRIX can be used as an indicator of trophic state and ASSETS showed good potential to assess eutrophication. The results of TRIX and ASSETS depend on threshold values. To establish these values, further research is required within the northern Beibu Gulf.

Modeling the circulation and sediment transport in the Beibu Gulf

Water circulation and sediment transport in the Beibu Gulf are important for its environmental protection and resource exploitation.By employing the Regional Ocean Modeling System（ROMS）,we studied the seasonal variation of circulation,sediment transport and long-term morphological evolution in the Beibu Gulf.The simulation results show that the circulation induced by tide and wind is cyclonic both in winter and summer in the gulf and that the wind-driven circulation is stronger in winter than that in summer.The sediment concentration is higher in the Qiongzhou Strait,west of the Hainan Island and the coast of Vietnam and the Leizhou Peninsula.The sediment is transported westwards in winter and eastwards in summer in the Qiongzhou Strait.The west entrance of the Qiongzhou Strait is dominated by westward transport all the year round.The sediment discharged by rivers is deposited near the river mouths.The simulated result demonstrates that the sediment transport is mainly controlled by tidal induced bottom resuspension in the Beibu Gulf.Four characteristics are summarized for the distribution patterns of erosion and deposition.（1） The erosion and deposition are insignificant in most area of the gulf.（2） Sediment deposition is more significant in the mouths of Qiongzhou Strait.（3） The erosion is observed in the seabed of Qiongzhou Strait.（4） Erosion and deposition occur alternatively in the west of Hainan Island.

Population parameters and dynamic pool models of commercial fishes in the Beibu Gulf, northern South China Sea

Length-frequency data of eight commercial fish species in the Beibu Gulf (Golf of Tonkin), northern South China Sea, were collected during 2006-2007. Length-weight relationships and growth and mortality parameters were analyzed using FiSAT II software. Five species had isometric growth, two species had negative allometric growth, and one species had positive allometric growth. Overall, the exploitation rates of the eight species were lower in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999: for four species (Saurida tumbil, Saurida undosquamis, Argyrosomus macrocephalus, and Nemipterus virgatus) it was lower in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999, for two species (Parargyrops edita and Trichiurus haumela) it remained the same, and for the other two species (Trachurus japonicus and Decapterus maruadsi) it was higher in 2006-2007 than in 1997-1999. The exploitation rates might have declined because of the decline in fishing intensity caused by high crude oil prices. The optimum exploitation rate, estimated using Beverton-Holt dynamic pool models, indicated that although fishes in the Beibu Gulf could sustain high exploitation rates, the under-size fishes at first capture resulted in low yields. To increase the yield per recruitment, it is more effective to increase the size at first capture than to control fishing effort.