How does Covid-19 affect global equity markets?

This study applies OLS,panel regression and Granger causality test to investigate the impact of the Coronavirus disease 2019(Covid-19)outbreak on the global equity markets during the early stage of the pandemic.We find that the Covid-19 outbreak has a significant negative impact on the overall equity index return of the eight economies even at 0.1%significance level.Furthermore,the pandemic has a more significant impact on the European countries than on the East Asian economies.The results have three main implications.Firstly,policy makers should react fast to mitigate the impact of a crisis.Secondly,investors should be aware of an outbreak of disease or other risks and adjust their investments accordingly.Furthermore,the Covid-19 outbreak results in a shift of power from the west to the east.

Macro Debt Burden and Consumption Expansion:An Analysis Based on Panel Model and Panel Quantile Regression Model

As the level of social credit burden rises,to ease the liquidity constraint for residents is currently an important way to boost the domestic demand in China.This paper uses the panel data of Chinese provincial-level administrative units in 2007−2017 and adopts the panel regression model and panel quantile regression model to empirically analyze the relationship between debt burden level and average propensity to consume(APC).The result shows that increase in the level of macro debt burden can significantly improve the APC of residents;the marginal promoting effect of macro debt burden for the APC is in a V-shaped structure;such marginal influence differs evidently in different areas,with the marginal promoting effect turning out most prominent in the northeast of China.Accordingly,it’s suggested for government to keep refining the credit market,increase residents’income in multiple means,guide supply of liquidity towards the real economy and promote equalization of basic public services,so as to realize the expansion and upgrade of consumption.

Grain Science and Technology Policies and Food Security in China:An Empirical Study Based on a Provincial Dynamic Panel Model

China’s grain science and technology policies have played an important role in the development of China’s food industry.This paper aims to examine the effects of China’s grain science and technology policies on food security.It quantitatively assesses China’s food security by analyzing the main contents and development trends of China’s food science technology policies through the text metrology method,and then investigates the effects of grain science and technology policies on food security by employing a provincial dynamic panel model.The results show that food security in China is all-round developed,and that the release frequency and cumulative effect of grain science and technology policies play a significant role in promoting food security.Powerful grain science and technology policies can effectively guarantee China’s food security.

R&D,innovation and productivity relationships:Evidence from threshold panel model

This study investigates the nonlinear relationship between R&D expenditures,innovation,productivity,high-tech export products.Previous empirical research used linear standard structures to deal with these kinds of specifications,and it has shown that the linearity is frequently conditioned by other macroeconomic factors such as the level of development and the financial openness.Based on these arguments,our study investigates this question in econometric specification using panel smooth threshold regression methodology proposed by Gonzalez et al.in 2005.Our findings suggest that there is a threshold effect within the links between R&D expenditures,innovation,and productivity.The effect of R&D expenditures,innovation,productivity,and medium and high technology product exports is mixed.However,both positive and negative effects are found,depending on which innovation indicators are used or on which level of threshold variable is the most appropriate.The results advocate that the level of economic development can be considered as target indicators to conduct an innovation policy.

粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务价值的时空演化及其影响机制

Ecosystem services are the media and channels through which ecological elements, structures, functions, and products benefit human society. Regulating the utilization intensity and protection methods of society on the ecosystem according to the ecosystem service value(ESV) and its influencing mechanism is of great significance for achieving the sustainable development goals. This paper takes the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA) as the research object and describes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ESV in the GBA from 2000 to 2015. Panel quantile regression is also implemented to increase the understanding of the influencing mechanism of ESV. The main results are as follows:(1) From 2000 to 2015, the total ESV declined with a decreasing rate. The areas of decline were mainly distributed in the central part of the GBA and areas along the Pearl River Estuary.(2) Elasticity index, indicating response of ESV to land use change, reached its peak(1.08). The spatial distribution of elasticity index showed that land use changes brought about more intense ESV variations at the junction of cities.(3) In areas with different ESV levels, the influencing factors have different effects. Land use integrity can only promote ecosystem service capabilities in low-ESV areas. The positive effect of temperature on ecosystem service capacity increases with the increase of ESV, which reflects the self-reinforcement of the ecosystem. Moreover, the negative effect of economic density on ecosystem service capacity decreases with the increase of ESV, which reflects the self-protection of the ecosystem. The combination of such self-reinforcement and self-protection will lead to an ESV gap between the high-and low-ESV areas, and induce the “natural Matthew effect.”

Fiscal policy and foreign direct investment in China

Using sub-national panel data for China,this paper discusses many policy factors attracting FDI.Therefore,it focuses on the comparison of public policy and other characteristics of provincial governments.Using a panel data set of 29 provinces in China for the period after reform and opening,we apply a panel regression model with fixed effects.We find that the tax burden has a significant effect on the location of FDI.In contrast with other research findings,this paper argues that local wages don’t have a positive effect on the location of FDI.Then,this paper discusses the effects of disaggregated public expenditure on the inflow of FDI.Ultimately,we find that the quality of Chinese governance does not have a significant effect on FDI.

Determinants of China’s OFDI Location Choices:A Comparison Study Between BRI Countries and Non-BRI Countries

In recent years,China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)has risen significantly,arousing considerable interest in the motivations and drivers of Chinese overseas investment.This paper selected 27 host country-related indicators and extracted the common factors using the factor analysis method.This paper discusses the determinants of China’s OFDI location choice by using panel data regression method,and focuses on the differences between Belt and Road countries and nonBelt and Road countries.The results show that the favorable institutional environment and strong market demand of host countries have a positive influence on Chinese foreign investment.Besides,China’s investment in Belt and Road Initiative countries is more prone to a country with less developed technology and unreasonable energy utilization.China’s OFDI can promote technological progress in these countries and making full use of their advantage resources for economic development.As China’s economy has entered a“new normal”,its global influence has risen,and the relationship between the host countries and China has also mattered more on China’s OFDI decisions.This effort provides important supports for optimizing the location choices of Chinese enterprises’foreign investment.

A study of the correlation between per capita income and the proportion of the service industry during China’s economic transition

Based on a provincial panel threshold regression model with per capita GDP as the threshold variable,this paper explores the correlation between per capita GDP and the proportion of employment in the service industry in different stages of China’s economic development.The results show that no matter the development stage,there is always a positive correlation between the two.The results also show that the more advanced the economic development stage,the bigger and more obvious is the regression coefficient.The empirical results based on stochastic frontier analysis(SFA)modeling indicate that the development of the service industry can always contribute to the improvement of national economic efficiency by creating employment opportunities and enhancing efficiencies in related industries.The more developed an economy is,the more significant is the effect.The results of descriptive statistics suggest that there is no empirical factual basis to support the belief that it is normal for China to have a low service industry proportion at its current economic development stage.This paper seeks to illustrate the negative influence of an underdeveloped service industry on China’s economy,and to encourage leapfrog development of the service industry in China.

Estimating the effect of minimum wage on firm profitability in China

Using the firm-level panel datasets and hand-collected data on county level minimum wage,this paper estimates the effect of minimum wage on firm profitability.As firms may take time to adjust in response to changes in minimum wage,this paper estimates a dynamic panel model with lagged minimum wage.To capture the heterogeneous effect of minimum wage on profitability,this paper further estimates quantile regression dynamic panel model.The estimation results suggest that the effect on firm profitability of minimum wage in the current year is negative across the whole conditional distribution of profitability and it exhibits an inverted-U shape across conditional quantiles.The effect on profitability of lagged minimum wage is positive at the 5th,10th,15th quantiles,negative at the 90th and 95th quantiles,and not significant at other quantiles.Turning to the overall effect on profitability of minimum wage,we find that minimum wage exerts significantly negative effect on profitability at the 5th quantile and quantiles higher than 40th and the absolute value of the effect of minimum wage increases with these quantiles.For other quantiles,the overall effect of minimum wage on profitability is negligible.

Energy Consumption, Economic Development and Temperature in China： Evidence from PSTR Model

Since the 1980s, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly, with an av- erage annual growth rate around 10%. Energy consumption in China has greatly in- creased as well. This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption, economic development and temperature in China by adopting provincial panel data from 1990 to 2011. Different from existing studies, in this paper, we use a panel smooth transition regression （PSTR） model to estimate the non-linearity relationship. Four different threshold variables including two lagged endogenous variables and two important exogenous variables have been considered. We find that energy intensity and the ratio of gross capital formation are suitable for the non-linearity model. The estimated elasticities of time dynamic indicate that energy consumption is income in- elastic and temperature inelastic. Elasticities of real income at first increase and then decrease, however, elasticities of temperature gradually increase after the year 1993. Last of all, we propose some policy implications.