Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate models.Previous studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC simulations.In this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its collapse.Through a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s variability.The traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of AMOC.The results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter slowly.However,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.

Learning the parameters of a class of stochastic Lotka-Volterra systems with neural networks

In this paper,we propose a neural network approach to learn the parameters of a class of stochastic Lotka-Volterra systems.Approximations of the mean and covariance matrix of the observational variables are obtained from the Euler-Maruyama discretization of the underlying stochastic differential equations(SDEs),based on which the loss function is built.The stochastic gradient descent method is applied in the neural network training.Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Deviation inequalities for quadratic Wiener functionals and moderate deviations for parameter estimators

We study deviation inequalities for some quadratic Wiener functionals and moderate deviations for parameter estimators in a linear stochastic differential equation model.Firstly,we give some estimates for Laplace integrals of the quadratic Wiener functionals by calculating the eigenvalues of the associated HilbertSchmidt operators.Then applying the estimates,we establish deviation inequalities for the quadratic functionals and moderate deviation principles for the parameter estimators.

Limit behaviors of extended Kalman filter as a parameter estimator for a sinusoidal signal

In this note, the basic limit behaviors of the solution to Riccati equation in the extended Kalman filter as a parameter estimator for a sinusoidal signal are analytically investigated by using lira sup and lim inf in advanced calculus. We show that if the covariance matrix has a limit, then it must be a zero matrix.

A parameter estimator based on adaptive noise canceller

The application of an adaptive noise canceller to parameter estimation is restricted for its unsatisfactory performance in the condition of high SNR input. In this paper based on an adaptive noise canceller, is presented a parameter estAnating method, which shows ulce filtering function and good tracking ability with ullknown prior information of interference and motion model of the object. The presented estimator only needs that the interference lloise varies faster than the parameter to be estimated. The presented method as a beedng esthaator was used to process the data collected in a sea experiment and the results show exciting property.

Large Deviations for Parameter Estimators of Some Time Inhomogeneous Diffusion Process

The goal of this paper is to study large deviations for estimator and score function of some time inhomogeneous diffusion process. Large deviation in the non-steepness case with explicit rate functions is obtained by using parameter-dependent change of measure.

Parameter Estimation of a Valve-Controlled Cylinder System Model Based on Bench Test and Operating Data Fusion

The accurate estimation of parameters is the premise for establishing a high-fidelity simulation model of a valve-controlled cylinder system.Bench test data are easily obtained,but it is challenging to emulate actual loads in the research on parameter estimation of valve-controlled cylinder system.Despite the actual load information contained in the operating data of the control valve,its acquisition remains challenging.This paper proposes a method that fuses bench test and operating data for parameter estimation to address the aforementioned problems.The proposed method is based on Bayesian theory,and its core is a pool fusion of prior information from bench test and operating data.Firstly,a system model is established,and the parameters in the model are analysed.Secondly,the bench and operating data of the system are collected.Then,the model parameters and weight coefficients are estimated using the data fusion method.Finally,the estimated effects of the data fusion method,Bayesian method,and particle swarm optimisation(PSO)algorithm on system model parameters are compared.The research shows that the weight coefficient represents the contribution of different prior information to the parameter estimation result.The effect of parameter estimation based on the data fusion method is better than that of the Bayesian method and the PSO algorithm.Increasing load complexity leads to a decrease in model accuracy,highlighting the crucial role of the data fusion method in parameter estimation studies.

Time-varying parameters estimation with adaptive neural network EKF for missile-dual control system

In this paper, a filtering method is presented to estimate time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system with tail fins and reaction jets as control variables. In this method, the long-short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is nested into the extended Kalman filter(EKF) to modify the Kalman gain such that the filtering performance is improved in the presence of large model uncertainties. To avoid the unstable network output caused by the abrupt changes of system states,an adaptive correction factor is introduced to correct the network output online. In the process of training the network, a multi-gradient descent learning mode is proposed to better fit the internal state of the system, and a rolling training is used to implement an online prediction logic. Based on the Lyapunov second method, we discuss the stability of the system, the result shows that when the training error of neural network is sufficiently small, the system is asymptotically stable. With its application to the estimation of time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system, the LSTM-EKF shows better filtering performance than the EKF and adaptive EKF(AEKF) when there exist large uncertainties in the system model.

Parameter estimation in n-dimensional massless scalar field

Quantum Fisher information(QFI)associated with local metrology has been used to parameter estimation in open quantum systems.In this work,we calculated the QFI for a moving Unruh-DeWitt detector coupled with massless scalar fields in n-dimensional spacetime,and analyzed the behavior of QFI with various parameters,such as the dimension of spacetime,evolution time,and Unruh temperature.We discovered that the QFI of state parameter decreases monotonically from 1 to 0 over time.Additionally,we noted that the QFI for small evolution times is several orders of magnitude higher than the QFI for long evolution times.We also found that the value of QFI decreases at first and then stabilizes as the Unruh temperature increases.It was observed that the QFI depends on initial state parameterθ,and Fθis the maximum forθ=0 orθ=π,Fφis the maximum forθ=π/2.We also obtain that the maximum value of QFI for state parameters varies for different spacetime dimensions with the same evolution time.

Coarse-fine joint target parameter estimation method based on AN-RSC in OFDM passive radar

In this paper,we study the accuracy of delay-Doppler parameter estimation of targets in a passive radar using orthogonal frequency division multiplexing(OFDM)signal.A coarse-fine joint estimation method is proposed to achieve better estimation accuracy of target parameters without excessive computational burden.Firstly,the modulation symbol domain(MSD)method is used to roughly estimate the delay and Doppler of targets.Then,to obtain high-precision Doppler estimation,the atomic norm(AN)based on the multiple measurement vectors(MMV)model(MMV-AN)is used to manifest the signal sparsity in the continuous Doppler domain.At the same time,a reference signal compensation(RSC)method is presented to obtain highprecision delay estimation.Simulation results based on the OFDM signal show that the coarse-fine joint estimation method based on AN-RSC can obtain a more accurate estimation of target parameters compared with other algorithms.In addition,the proposed method also possesses computational advantages compared with the joint parameter estimation.

Design of a Multifrequency Signal Parameter Estimation Method for the Distribution Network Based on HIpST

The application of traditional synchronous measurement methods is limited by frequent fluctuations of electrical signals and complex frequency components in distribution networks.Therefore,it is critical to find solutions to the issues of multifrequency parameter estimation and synchronous measurement estimation accuracy in the complex environment of distribution networks.By utilizing the multifrequency sensing capabilities of discrete Fourier transform signals and Taylor series for dynamic signal processing,a multifrequency signal estimation approach based on HT-IpDFT-STWLS(HIpST)for distribution networks is provided.First,by introducing the Hilbert transform(HT),the influence of noise on the estimation algorithm is reduced.Second,signal frequency components are obtained on the basis of the calculated signal envelope spectrum,and the interpolated discrete Fourier transform(IpDFT)frequency coarse estimation results are used as the initial values of symmetric Taylor weighted least squares(STWLS)to achieve high-precision parameter estimation under the dynamic changes of the signal,and the method increases the number of discrete Fourier.Third,the accuracy of this proposed method is verified by simulation analysis.Data show that this proposed method can accurately achieve the parameter estimation of multifrequency signals in distribution networks.This approach provides a solution for the application of phasor measurement units in distribution networks.

Numerical Simulation and Parameter Estimation of Fractional-Order Dynamic Epidemic Model for COVID-19

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019 resulted in numerous infections and deaths. In order to better study the transmission of COVID-19, this article adopts an improved fractional-order SIR model. Firstly, the properties of the model are studied, including the feasible domain and bounded solutions of the system. Secondly, the stability of the system is discussed, among other things. Then, the GMMP method is introduced to obtain numerical solutions for the COVID-19 system and combined with the improved MH-NMSS-PSO parameter estimation method to fit the real data of Delhi, India from April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2020. The results show that the fitting effect is quite ideal. Finally, long-term predictions were made on the number of infections. We accurately estimate that the peak number of infections in Delhi, India, can reach around 2.1 million. This paper also compares the fitting performance of the integer-order COVID-19 model and the fractional-order COVID-19 model using the real data from Delhi. The results indicate that the fractional-order model with different orders, as we proposed, performs the best.

Multi Parameter Adaptive Estimation of Reaction-Diffusion Equation

This study addresses the problem of parameter estimation for a one-dimensional reaction-diffusion equation, involving both unknown domain parameters and unknown boundary parameters. The proposed approach utilizes the least-squares method to design an adaptive law for parameter estimation. The convergence analysis demonstrates that under persistent excitation conditions, the adaptive law converges exponentially to zero, indicating that the estimated parameters converge exponentially to their true values. Numerical simulations confirm the effectiveness. Furthermore, it is shown that within a certain range of the reaction coefficient, the auxiliary system acts as a state observer, providing an accurate estimate of the system state at an exponential rate. .

Nonlinear Regression Fuzzy Analysis of Real Variable and Fuzzy Parameter

As far as the nonlinear regression method is concerned, the condition when both independent and dependent variable take the Fuzzy value, while the parameter, θ∈ΘR m the real value, have been discussed in . But for most of actual conditions, the independent variable generally takes the real value, while both parameter and dependent variable take the Fuzzy value. This paper propounded a method for the latter and its relevant Fuzzy regreession model. In addition the Fuzzy observation, matrix distribution and the rational estimation of modeling parameter have also been discussed. Furthermore, the Max min estimation of modeling parameter and its corresponding calculating sequence have also been offered to and the calculating example shows the method is feasible.

Statistical condition assessment of existing structures using virtual work error estimator

A statistical damage detection and condition assessment scheme for existing structures is developed. First a virtual work error estimator is defined to express the discrepancy between a real structure and its analytical model, with which a system identification algorithm is derived by using the improved Newton method. In order to investigate its properties in the face of measurement errors, the Monte Carlo method is introduced to simulate the measured data. Based on the identified results, their statistical distributions can be assumed, the status of an existing structure can be statistically evaluated by hypothesis tests. A 5-story, two-bay steel frame is used to carry out numerical simulation studies in detail, and the proposed scheme is proved to be effective.

Selection of the Linear Regression Model According to the Parameter Estimation

In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example.

An Immune Self-adaptive Differential Evolution Algorithm with Application to Estimate Kinetic Parameters for Homogeneous Mercury Oxidation

A new version of differential evolution （DE） algorithm, in which immune concepts and methods are applied to determine the parameter setting, named immune self-adaptive differential evolution （ISDE）, is proposed to improve the performance of the DE algorithm. During the actual operation, ISDE seeks the optimal parameters arising from the evolutionary process, which enable ISDE to alter the algorithm for different optimization problems and improve the performance of ISDE by the control parameters＇ self-adaptation. The .performance of the proposed method is studied with the use of nine benchmark problems and compared with original DE algorithm ~nd-other well-known self-adaptive DE algorithms. The experiments conducted show that the ISDE clearly outperforms the other DE algorithms in all benchmark functions. Furthermore, ISDE is applied to develop the kinetic model for homogeneous mercury. （Hg） oxidation in flue gas, and satisfactory results are obtained.

Parameter estimation for chaotic systems using the cuckoo search algorithm with an orthogonal learning method

We study the parameter estimation of a nonlinear chaotic system,which can be essentially formulated as a multidimensional optimization problem.In this paper,an orthogonal learning cuckoo search algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of chaotic systems.This algorithm can combine the stochastic exploration of the cuckoo search and the exploitation capability of the orthogonal learning strategy.Experiments are conducted on the Lorenz system and the Chen system.The proposed algorithm is used to estimate the parameters for these two systems.Simulation results and comparisons demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is better or at least comparable to the particle swarm optimization and the genetic algorithm when considering the quality of the solutions obtained.

Adaptive unscented Kalman filter for parameter and state estimation of nonlinear high-speed objects

An adaptive unscented Kalman filter （AUKF） and an augmented state method are employed to estimate the timevarying parameters and states of a kind of nonlinear high-speed objects. A strong tracking filter is employed to improve the tracking ability and robustness of unscented Kalman filter （UKF） when the process noise is inaccuracy, and wavelet transform is used to improve the estimate accuracy by the variance of measurement noise. An augmented square-root framework is utilized to improve the numerical stability and accuracy of UKF. Monte Carlo simulations and applications in the rapid trajectory estimation of hypersonic artillery shells confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Dynamic threshold for SPWVD parameter estimation based on Otsu algorithm

Time-frequency-based methods are proven to be effective for parameter estimation of linear frequency modulation （LFM） signals. The smoothed pseudo Winger-Ville distribution （SPWVD） is used for the parameter estimation of multi-LFM signals, and a method of the SPWVD binarization by a dynamic threshold based on the Otsu algorithm is proposed. The proposed method is effective in the demand for the estimation of different parameters and the unknown signal-to-noise ratio （SNR） circumstance. The performance of this method is confirmed by numerical simulation.