Hybrid Slip Model for Near-Field Ground Motion Estimation Based on Uncertainty of Source Parameters

The hybrid slip model used to generate a finite fault model for near-field ground motion estimation and seismic hazard assessment was improved to express the uncertainty of the source form of a future earthquake.In this process, source parameters were treated as normal random variables, and the Fortran code of hybrid slip model was modified by adding a random number generator so that the code could generate many finite fault models with different dimensions and slip distributions for a given magnitude.Furth...

Evaluation of Uncertainty of Earthquake Parameters for the Purpose of Seismic Zoning of Iran

An efficient procedure is used for explicit description and evaluation of uncertainty of earthquake parameters in the uniform catalog of earthquakes in Iran and neighboring regions.An inadequate number of local and regional seismographic stations,poor station distribution,and Inadequacy of velocity models have resulted in conspicuous uncertainty in different parameters of recorded events.In a comprehensive seismic hazard analysis such uncertainties should be considered.Uncertainty of magnitude and location of events are evaluated for three different time periods,namely,historical,early instrumental,and modern instrumental time periods,for which existing seismological information differ widely in quantity,quality,and type.It is concluded that an uncertainty of 0.2-0.3 units of magnitude and 10-15 km in epicenter determinations should be considered in the most favorable conditions.None of the hypocenters of earthquakes in Iran can be considered as reliable,unless supported by other information such as

The K Method for Estimating Earthquake Activity Parameters and Effect of the Boundary Uncertainty of the Source Region:Discussion on the Seismic Zoning Method

Two aspects of a new method,which can be used for seismic zoning,are introduced in this paper.On the one hand,the approach to estimate b value and annual activity rate proposed by Kijko and Sellevoll needs to use the earthquake catalogue.The existing earthquake catalogue contains both historical and recent instrumental data sets and it is inadequate to use only one part.Combining the large number of historical events with recent complete records and taking the magnitude uncertainty into account,Kijko’s method gives the maximum likelihood estimation of b value and annual activity rate,which might be more realistic.On the other hand,this method considers the source zone boundary uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis,which means the earthquake activity rate across a boundary of a source zone changes smoothly instead of abruptly and avoids too large a gradient in the calculated results.

Dynamics and adaptive control of a dual-arm space robot with closed-loop constraints and uncertain inertial parameters

A dynamics-based adaptive control approach is proposed for a planar dual-arm space robot in the presence of closed-loop constraints and uncertain inertial parameters of the payload. The controller is capable of controlling the po- sition and attitude of both the satellite base and the payload grasped by the manipulator end effectors. The equations of motion in reduced-order form for the constrained system are derived by incorporating the constraint equations in terms of accelerations into Kane＇s equations of the unconstrained system. Model analysis shows that the resulting equations perfectly meet the requirement of adaptive controller design. Consequently, by using an indirect approach, an adaptive control scheme is proposed to accomplish position/attitude trajectory tracking control with the uncertain parameters be- ing estimated on-line. The actuator redundancy due to the closed-loop constraints is utilized to minimize a weighted norm of the joint torques. Global asymptotic stability is proven by using Lyapunov＇s method, and simulation results are also presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Impulsive control of permanent magnet synchronous motors with parameters uncertainties

The permanent magnet synchronous motors （PMSMs） may have chaotic behaviours for the uncertain values of parameters or under certain working conditions, which threatens the secure and stable operation of motor-driven. It is important to study methods of controlling or suppressing chaos in PMSMs. In this paper, robust stabilities of PMSM with parameter uncertainties are investigated. After the uncertain matrices which represent the variable system parameters are formulated through matrix analysis, a novel asymptotical stability criterion is established. Some illustrated examples are also given to show the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Probabilistic model and analysis of coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system with uncertain structural parameters

Random dynamic responses caused by the uncertainty of structural parameters of the coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system under train loading can pose safety concerns to the train operation.This paper introduced a computational model for analyzing probabilistic dynamic responses of three-dimensional(3D)coupled train-ballasted track-subgrade system(TBTSS),where the coupling effects of uncertain rail irregularities,stiffness and damping properties of ballast and subgrade layers were simultaneously considered.The number theoretical method(NTM)was employed to design discrete points for the multi-dimensional stochastic parameters.The time-histories of stochastic dynamic vibrations of the TBSS with systematically uncertain structural parameters were calculated accurately and efficiently by employing the probability density evolution method(PDEM).The model-predicted results were consistent with those by the Monte Carlo simulation method.A sensitivity study was performed to assess the relative importance of those uncertain structural parameters,based on which a case study was presented to explore the stochastic probability evolution mechanism of such train-ballasted track-subgrade system.

Nash Model Parameter Uncertainty Analysis by AM-MCMC Based on BFS and Probabilistic Flood Forecasting

A hydrologic model consists of several parameters which are usually calibrated based on observed hy-drologic processes. Due to the uncertainty of the hydrologic processes, model parameters are also uncertain, which further leads to the uncertainty of forecast results of a hydrologic model. Working with the Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation based Adaptive Metropolis method (AM-MCMC) was used to study parameter uncertainty of Nash model, while the probabilistic flood forecasting was made with the simu-lated samples of parameters of Nash model. The results of a case study shows that the AM-MCMC based on BFS proposed in this paper is suitable to obtain the posterior distribution of the parameters of Nash model according to the known information of the parameters. The use of Nash model and AM-MCMC based on BFS was able to make the probabilistic flood forecast as well as to find the mean and variance of flood discharge, which may be useful to estimate the risk of flood control decision.

Robust sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical system with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance

This paper presents a modified sliding mode control for fractional-order chaotic economical systems with parameter uncertainty and external disturbance. By constructing the suitable sliding mode surface with fractional-order integral, the effective sliding mode controller is designed to realize the asymptotical stability of fractional-order chaotic economical systems. Comparing with the existing results, the main results in this paper are more practical and rigorous. Simulation results show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed sliding mode control method.

Robust H_∞ control for aseismic structures with uncertainties in model parameters

This paper presents a robust H∞ output feedback control approach for structural systems with uncertainties in model parameters by using available acceleration measurements and proposes conditions for the existence of such a robust output feedback controller. The uncertainties of structural stiffness, damping and mass parameters are assumed to be norm-bounded. The proposed control approach is formulated within the framework of linear matrix inequalities, for which existing convex optimization techniques, such as the LM1 toolbox in MATLAB, can be used effectively and conveniently. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed robust H∞ strategy, a six-story building was subjected both to the 1940 E1 Centro earthquake record and to a suddenly applied Kanai-Tajimi filtered white noise random excitation. The results show that the proposed robust H∞ controller provides satisfactory results with or without variation of the structural stiffness, damping and mass parameters.

Parameter uncertainty modeling of safety instrumented systems

In this study,a novel safety integrity level(SIL)determination methodology of safety instrumented systems(SISs)with parameter uncertainty is proposed by combining multistage dynamic Bayesian networks(DBNs)and Monte Carlo simulation.A multistage DBN model for SIL determination with multiple redundant cells is established.The models of function inspection test interval and function inspection test stages are alternately connected to form the multistage DBNs.The redundant cells can have different M out of N voting system architectures.An automatic modeling of conditional probability between nodes is developed.The SIL determination of SISs with parameter uncertainty is constructed by using the multistage DBNs and Monte Carlo simulation.A high-pressure SIS in the export of oil wellplatform is adopted to demonstrate the application of the proposed approach.The SIL and availability of the SIS and its subsystems are obtained.The influence of single subsystem on the SIL and availability of the SIS is studied.The influence of single redundant element on the SIL and availability of the subsystem is analyzed.A user-friendly SIL determination software with parameter uncertainty is developed on MATLAB graphical user interface.

Portfolio Choice under the Mean-Variance Model with Parameter Uncertainty

Assuming the investor is uncertainty-aversion,the multiprior approach is applied to studying the problem of portfolio choice under the uncertainty about the expected return of risky asset based on the mean-variance model. By introducing a set of constraint constants to measure uncertainty degree of the estimated expected return,it built the max-min model of multi-prior portfolio,and utilized the Lagrange method to obtain the closed-form solution of the model,which was compared with the mean-variance model and the minimum-variance model; then,an empirical study was done based on the monthly returns over the period June 2011 to May 2014 of eight kinds of stocks in Shanghai Exchange 50 Index. Results showed,the weight of multi-prior portfolio was a weighted average of the weight of mean-variance portfolio and that of minimumvariance portfolio; the steady of multi-prior portfolio was strengthened compared with the mean-variance portfolio; the performance of multi-prior portfolio was greater than that of minimum-variance portfolio. The study demonstrates that the investor can improve the steady of multi-prior portfolio as well as its performance for some appropriate constraint constants.

Interval finite difference method for steady-state temperature field prediction with interval parameters

A new numerical technique named interval finite difference method is proposed for the steady-state temperature field prediction with uncertainties in both physical parameters and boundary conditions. Interval variables are used to quantitatively describe the uncertain parameters with limited information. Based on different Taylor and Neumann series, two kinds of parameter perturbation methods are presented to approximately yield the ranges of the uncertain temperature field. By comparing the results with traditional Monte Carlo simulation, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method for solving steady-state heat conduction problem with uncertain-but-bounded parameters.

A Stable Fuzzy-Based Computational Model and Control for Inductions Motors

In this paper,a stable and adaptive sliding mode control(SMC)method for induction motors is introduced.Determining the parameters of this system has been one of the existing challenges.To solve this challenge,a new self-tuning type-2 fuzzy neural network calculates and updates the control system parameters with a fast mechanism.According to the dynamic changes of the system,in addition to the parameters of the SMC,the parameters of the type-2 fuzzy neural network are also updated online.The conditions for guaranteeing the convergence and stability of the control system are provided.In the simulation part,in order to test the proposed method,several uncertain models and load torque have been applied.Also,the results have been compared to the SMC based on the type-1 fuzzy system,the traditional SMC,and the PI controller.The average RMSE in different scenarios,for type-2 fuzzy SMC,is 0.0311,for type-1 fuzzy SMC is 0.0497,for traditional SMC is 0.0778,and finally for PI controller is 0.0997.

Application of Bayesian Econometrics in Policy Evaluation

This study explores the application of Bayesian econometrics in policy evaluation through theoretical analysis. The research first reviews the theoretical foundations of Bayesian methods, including the concepts of Bayesian inference, prior distributions, and posterior distributions. Through systematic analysis, the study constructs a theoretical framework for applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation. The research finds that Bayesian methods have multiple theoretical advantages in policy evaluation: Based on parameter uncertainty theory, Bayesian methods can better handle uncertainty in model parameters and provide more comprehensive estimates of policy effects;from the perspective of model selection theory, Bayesian model averaging can reduce model selection bias and enhance the robustness of evaluation results;according to causal inference theory, Bayesian causal inference methods provide new approaches for evaluating policy causal effects. The study also points out the complexities of applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation, such as the selection of prior information and computational complexity. To address these complexities, the study proposes hybrid methods combining frequentist approaches and suggestions for developing computationally efficient algorithms. The research also discusses theoretical comparisons between Bayesian methods and other policy evaluation techniques, providing directions for future research.

Solvability Condition for Robust Stabilization Problem of Control Systems with Parameter Uncertainties

Aim The solvability condition for robust stabilization problem associated with a plant family P(s,δ) having parameter uncertainty δ was considered. Methods Using Youla parameterization of the stabilizers this problem was transformed into a strong stabilization problem associated with a related plant family G (s, δ). Results A necessary solvability condition was established in terms of the parity interlacing property of each element in G(s,δ). Another apparently necessary solvability condition is that every element in P(s,δ) must be stabilizable. Conclusion The two conditions will be compared with each other and it will be shown that every element in G(s,δ) possesses parity interlacing property if P(s,δ) is stabilizable.

Robust admissibility analysis of uncertain switched singular systems:a switched Lyapunov function approach

The robust admissibility analysis of a class of uncertain discrete-time switched linear singular（SLS） systems for arbitrary switching laws is addressed. The parameter uncertainty is assumed to be norm-bounded. First, by using the switched Lyapunov function approach, some new sufficient conditions ensuring the nominal discrete-time SLS system to be regular, casual and asymptotically stable for arbitrary switching laws are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Then, the robust admissibility condition for the uncertain discrete-time SLS systems is presented. The obtained results can be viewed as an extension of previous works on the switched Lyapunov function approach from the regular switched linear systems to the switched linear singular cases. Numerical examples show the reduced conservatism and effectiveness of the proposed conditions.

Solvability Condition for a Class of Parametric Robust Stabilization Problem

The robust stabilization problem (RSP) for a plant family P(s,δ,δ) having real parameter uncertainty δ will be tackled. The coefficients of the numerator and the denominator of P(s,δ,δ) are affine functions of δ with ‖δ‖p≤δ. The robust stabilization problem for P(s,δ,δ) is essentially to simultaneously stabilize the infinitely many members of P(s,δ,δ) by a fixed controller. A necessary solvability condition is that every member plant of P(s,δ,δ) must be stabilizable, that is, it is free of unstable pole-zero cancellation. The concept of stabilizability radius is introduced which is the maximal norm bound for δ so that every member plant is stabilizable. The stability radius δmax(C) of the closed-loop system composed of P(s,δ,δ) and the controller C(s) is the maximal norm bound such that the closed-loop system is robustly stable for all δ with ‖δ‖p<δmax(C). Using the convex parameterization approach it is shown that the maximal stability radius is exactly the stabilizability radius. Therefore, the RSP is solvable if and only if every member plant of P(s,δ,δ) is stabilizable.

Disturbance observer based position tracking of electro-hydraulic actuator

A nonlinear controller based on an extended second-order disturbance observer is presented to track desired position for an electro-hydraulic single-rod actuator in the presence of both external disturbances and parameter uncertainties. The proposed extended second-order disturbance observer deals with not only the external perturbations, but also parameter uncertainties which are commonly regarded as lumped disturbances in previous researches. Besides, the outer position tracking loop is designed with cylinder load pressure as output; and the inner pressure control loop provides the hydraulic actuator the characteristic of a force generator. The stability of the closed-loop system is provided based on Lyapunov theory. The performance of the controller is verified through simulations and experiments. The results demonstrate that the proposed nonlinear position tracking controller, together with the extended second-order disturbance observer, gives an excellent tracking performance in the presence of parameter uncertainties and external disturbance.

Distributed fuzzy fault-tolerant consensus of leader-follower multi-agent systems with mismatched uncertainties

In this paper,the distributed fuzzy fault-tolerant tracking consensus problem of leader-follower multi-agent systems(MASs)is studied.The objective system includes actuator faults,mismatched parameter uncertainties,nonlinear functions,and exogenous disturbances under switching communication topologies.To solve this problem,a distributed fuzzy fault-tolerant controller is proposed for each follower by adaptive mechanisms to track the state of the leader.Furthermore,the fuzzy logic system is utilized to approximate the unknown nonlinear dynamics.An error estimator is introduced between the mismatched parameter matrix and the input matrix.Then,a selective adaptive law with relative state information is adopted and applied.When calculating the Lyapunov function’s derivative,the coupling terms related to consensus error and mismatched parameter uncertainties can be eliminated.Finally,a numerical simulation is given to validate the effectiveness of the proposed protocol.

On delay-dependent robust stability of neutral systems

The delay-dependent robust stability of uncertain linear neutral systems with delays is investigated. Both discrete-delay-dependent/neutral-delay-independent and neutral-/discrete- delay-dependent stability criteria will be developed. The proposed stability criteria are formulated in the form of linear matrix inequalities and it is easy to check the robust stability of the considered systems. By introducing certain Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional the mathematical development of our result avoids model transformation and bounding for cross terms, which lead to conservatism. Finally, numerical example is given to indicate the improvement over some existing results.