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Bayesian Analysis in Partially Accelerated Life Tests for Weighted Lomax Distribution 被引量:1
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作者 Rashad Bantan Amal S.Hassan +4 位作者 Ehab Almetwally M.Elgarhy Farrukh Jamal Christophe Chesneau Mahmoud Elsehetry 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2021年第9期2859-2875,共17页
Accelerated life testing has been widely used in product life testing experiments because it can quickly provide information on the lifetime distributions by testing products or materials at higher than basic conditio... Accelerated life testing has been widely used in product life testing experiments because it can quickly provide information on the lifetime distributions by testing products or materials at higher than basic conditional levels of stress,such as pressure,temperature,vibration,voltage,or load to induce early failures.In this paper,a step stress partially accelerated life test(SSPALT)is regarded under the progressive type-II censored data with random removals.The removals from the test are considered to have the binomial distribution.The life times of the testing items are assumed to follow lengthbiased weighted Lomax distribution.The maximum likelihood method is used for estimating the model parameters of length-biased weighted Lomax.The asymptotic confidence interval estimates of the model parameters are evaluated using the Fisher information matrix.The Bayesian estimators cannot be obtained in the explicit form,so the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is employed to address this problem,which ensures both obtaining the Bayesian estimates as well as constructing the credible interval of the involved parameters.The precision of the Bayesian estimates and the maximum likelihood estimates are compared by simulations.In addition,to compare the performance of the considered confidence intervals for different parameter values and sample sizes.The Bootstrap confidence intervals give more accurate results than the approximate confidence intervals since the lengths of the former are less than the lengths of latter,for different sample sizes,observed failures,and censoring schemes,in most cases.Also,the percentile Bootstrap confidence intervals give more accurate results than Bootstrap-t since the lengths of the former are less than the lengths of latter for different sample sizes,observed failures,and censoring schemes,in most cases.Further performance comparison is conducted by the experiments with real data. 展开更多
关键词 partially accelerated life testing progressive type-II censoring length-biased weighted Lomax Bayesian and bootstrap confidence intervals
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Inference and optimal design on step-stress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system with masked data 被引量:1
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作者 SHI Xiaolin LU Pu SHI Yimin 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第5期1089-1100,共12页
Under Type-Ⅱ progressively hybrid censoring, this paper discusses statistical inference and optimal design on stepstress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system in presence of masked data. It is assumed tha... Under Type-Ⅱ progressively hybrid censoring, this paper discusses statistical inference and optimal design on stepstress partially accelerated life test for hybrid system in presence of masked data. It is assumed that the lifetime of the component in hybrid systems follows independent and identical modified Weibull distributions. The maximum likelihood estimations(MLEs)of the unknown parameters, acceleration factor and reliability indexes are derived by using the Newton-Raphson algorithm. The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix and the approximate confidence intervals are obtained based on normal approximation to the asymptotic distribution of MLEs of model parameters. Moreover,two bootstrap confidence intervals are constructed by using the parametric bootstrap method. The optimal time of changing stress levels is determined under D-optimality and A-optimality criteria.Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to illustrate the proposed procedures. 展开更多
关键词 hybrid system step-stress partially accelerated life test Type-Ⅱ progressively hybrid censored and masked data statistical inference optimal test plan
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Parameter Estimation Based on Censored Data under Partially Accelerated Life Testing for Hybrid Systems due to Unknown Failure Causes
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作者 Mustafa Kamal 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2022年第3期1239-1269,共31页
In general,simple subsystems like series or parallel are integrated to produce a complex hybrid system.The reliability of a system is determined by the reliability of its constituent components.It is often extremely d... In general,simple subsystems like series or parallel are integrated to produce a complex hybrid system.The reliability of a system is determined by the reliability of its constituent components.It is often extremely difficult or impossible to get specific information about the component that caused the system to fail.Unknown failure causes are instances in which the actual cause of systemfailure is unknown.On the other side,thanks to current advanced technology based on computers,automation,and simulation,products have become incredibly dependable and trustworthy,and as a result,obtaining failure data for testing such exceptionally reliable items have become a very costly and time-consuming procedure.Therefore,because of its capacity to produce rapid and adequate failure data in a short period of time,accelerated life testing(ALT)is the most utilized approach in the field of product reliability and life testing.Based on progressively hybrid censored(PrHC)data froma three-component parallel series hybrid system that failed to owe to unknown causes,this paper investigates a challenging problem of parameter estimation and reliability assessment under a step stress partially accelerated life-test(SSPALT).Failures of components are considered to follow a power linear hazard rate(PLHR),which can be used when the failure rate displays linear,decreasing,increasing or bathtub failure patterns.The Tempered random variable(TRV)model is considered to reflect the effect of the high stress level used to induce early failure data.The maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)approach is used to estimate the parameters of the PLHR distribution and the acceleration factor.A variance covariance matrix(VCM)is then obtained to construct the approximate confidence intervals(ACIs).In addition,studentized bootstrap confidence intervals(ST-B CIs)are also constructed and compared with ACIs in terms of their respective interval lengths(ILs).Moreover,a simulation study is conducted to demonstrate the performance of the estimation procedures and the methodology discussed in this paper.Finally,real failure data from the air conditioning systems of an airplane is used to illustrate further the performance of the suggested estimation technique. 展开更多
关键词 Step stress partially accelerated life test progressive hybrid censoring data masking power linear hazard rate distribution hybrid system
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人乳头瘤病毒多基因型检测对传统部分基因型宫颈癌筛查策略价值优化的敏感性分析 被引量:2
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作者 戎春宇 揭俊钦 +6 位作者 王贤吉 周萍 蒋虹丽 杜莉 祖恩晴 李欣 李真 《中国卫生资源》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第4期330-338,共9页
目的评估薄层液基细胞学检查(thinprep cytologic test,TCT)筛查技术的有效性、部分宫颈癌诊断费用和初始人群中人乳头瘤病毒(human papilloma virus,HPV)低度风险基因型感染者占比对HPV多基因型和HPV部分(16/18)基因型检测初筛策略的... 目的评估薄层液基细胞学检查(thinprep cytologic test,TCT)筛查技术的有效性、部分宫颈癌诊断费用和初始人群中人乳头瘤病毒(human papilloma virus,HPV)低度风险基因型感染者占比对HPV多基因型和HPV部分(16/18)基因型检测初筛策略的成本效果影响,为公共卫生决策部门选择宫颈癌筛查策略提供参考。方法基于构建的Markov队列模型,以预防宫颈癌发病例数为效果指标,模型运行50年,对HPV多基因型和HPV部分(16/18)基因型筛查方案进行敏感性分析,分析TCT筛查技术的有效性、部分宫颈癌诊断费用,以及初始人群中HPV低度风险基因型感染者占比的变化对成本效果的影响。结果在设定的模型及各参数阈值下,敏感性分析发现:HPV低度风险基因型(HPV 51/35/39/68/56/59/66型)感染者(HPV感染状况或进展为CIN1/2/3状况)中TCT分流检测的灵敏度与特异度[以TCT结果为不典型鳞状上皮细胞病变(atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance,ASCUS)以上为判别标准]变化对两种筛查策略差距影响较大;TCT检测费用、阴道镜检测费用及组织病理学检测费用对两种筛查策略差距影响相对较小。上述各指标在设定阈值范围内变化时,HPV多基因型与部分基因型策略相比,效果差异甚微,成本差异有所变化,具有成本优势。此外,随着初始人群中HPV低度风险基因型感染者的比例增大,HPV多基因型策略的优势亦逐渐增强。结论进一步明确HPV不同基因型的致病风险对优化多基因型HPV筛查的后续管理路径具有重要意义,而进一步细分TCT检测的TBS(The Bethesda System)分级报告结果,提升TCT检测精度则是保障多基因型HPV筛查防治策略价值优化的关键。 展开更多
关键词 宫颈癌筛查cervical cancer screening 人乳头瘤病毒human papilloma virus HPV 多基因型检测extended genotyping testing 部分基因型检测partial genotyping testing 价值value 成本效果costeffectiveness 敏感性分析sensitivity analysis 薄层液基细胞学检查thinprep cytologic test TCT 不典型鳞状上皮细胞病变atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance ASCUS
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人乳头瘤病毒多基因型检测对传统部分基因型宫颈癌筛查策略的价值优化:基于Markov模型的分析 被引量:1
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作者 揭俊钦 戎春宇 +6 位作者 王贤吉 蒋虹丽 杜莉 周萍 李欣 祖恩晴 李真 《中国卫生资源》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第4期323-329,338,共8页
目的比较人乳头瘤病毒(human papilloma virus,HPV)多基因型(extended genotyping)与HPV部分(16/18)基因型检测技术对宫颈癌筛查策略及其后续管理的影响,分析可能带来的价值变化。方法基于Markov队列模型,以预防宫颈癌发病例数为效果指... 目的比较人乳头瘤病毒(human papilloma virus,HPV)多基因型(extended genotyping)与HPV部分(16/18)基因型检测技术对宫颈癌筛查策略及其后续管理的影响,分析可能带来的价值变化。方法基于Markov队列模型,以预防宫颈癌发病例数为效果指标,模拟100万名初始年龄为15岁的健康妇女在10、20、30、40、50年内从健康状态到宫颈癌发病的疾病进程,基于2种检测技术的宫颈癌筛查-诊断-癌前病变诊疗路径构建模型,分析2种筛查技术不同累计年份下的效果指标、阴道镜检查次数、宫颈上皮内瘤样病变(cervical intraepithelial neoplasia,CIN)1/2/3状态的筛查率,并比较成本与成本效果,以此判定对价值的影响。结果模型模拟10、20、30、40、50年,HPV多基因型相对于HPV部分(16/18)基因型在成本上分别减少29.73万、75.55万、98.53万、111.23万、119.39万元,效果始终保持一致,阴道镜检测次数可分别减少1002、2726、3865、4605、5086人次,CIN1-3筛查率上,模型运行第10、20、30、40、50年时,HPV多基因型策略分别减少约4%的CIN1-3的筛查率。结论相比于HPV部分(16/18)基因型,HPV多基因型检测技术在保障预防效果的情况下,能降低筛查假阳性带来的阴道镜“过诊”率,提升阴道镜检查精度,优化卫生资源利用效能,一定程度上避免假阳性带来的心理负担,从而优化传统HPV部分(16/18)基因型的筛查价值。 展开更多
关键词 宫颈癌筛查cervical cancer screening 人乳头瘤病毒human papilloma virus HPV 多基因型检测extended genotyping testing 部分基因型检测partial genotyping testing 价值value 成本效果costeffectiveness 薄层液基细胞学检查thinprep cytologic test TCT 不典型鳞状上皮细胞病变atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance ASCUS
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Research on Modal Test Technology of LM-6A Solid-Liquid Strap-On Launch Vehicle
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作者 ZHU Chunyan YANG Bing +2 位作者 DI Wenbin CHANG Dongfang MAO Yuming 《Aerospace China》 2022年第2期25-33,共9页
The LM-6 A new generation solid-liquid strap-on launch vehicle has the structural dynamic characteristics of lower frequencies,denser modes and coupling modes in longitudinal,bending and torsion modal space.During the... The LM-6 A new generation solid-liquid strap-on launch vehicle has the structural dynamic characteristics of lower frequencies,denser modes and coupling modes in longitudinal,bending and torsion modal space.During the development phase of LM-6 A,modal tests of partial stacks and the full vehicle were designed to obtain the structural dynamic properties.The structural dynamic models using the finite element method(FEM)have been verified and calibrated based on the modal test data.This paper describes the pre-test predictions and test execution,and details the comparison between the pre-test predictions and the test data.The successful maiden flight of LM-6 A further confirmed the effectiveness of structural dynamic modeling and modal test for LM-6 A. 展开更多
关键词 LM-6A modal test of full vehicle partial stack modal test
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