This paper presents a technique for Medium Term Load Forecasting (MTLF) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm based on Least Squares Regression Methods to forecast the electric loads of the Jordanian grid ...This paper presents a technique for Medium Term Load Forecasting (MTLF) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm based on Least Squares Regression Methods to forecast the electric loads of the Jordanian grid for year of 2015. Linear, quadratic and exponential forecast models have been examined to perform this study and compared with the Auto Regressive (AR) model. MTLF models were influenced by the weather which should be considered when predicting the future peak load demand in terms of months and weeks. The main contribution for this paper is the conduction of MTLF study for Jordan on weekly and monthly basis using real data obtained from National Electric Power Company NEPCO. This study is aimed to develop practical models and algorithm techniques for MTLF to be used by the operators of Jordan power grid. The results are compared with the actual peak load data to attain minimum percentage error. The value of the forecasted weekly and monthly peak loads obtained from these models is examined using Least Square Error (LSE). Actual reported data from NEPCO are used to analyze the performance of the proposed approach and the results are reported and compared with the results obtained from PSO algorithm and AR model.展开更多
针对电力负荷预测粒子群优化最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machine,LSSVM)模型输入节点难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于数据分组处理方法(Group Method of Data Handling,GMDH)来优化PSO-LSSVM(Particle Swarm Optim...针对电力负荷预测粒子群优化最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machine,LSSVM)模型输入节点难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于数据分组处理方法(Group Method of Data Handling,GMDH)来优化PSO-LSSVM(Particle Swarm Optimization-Least Squares Support Vector Machine)的中长期电力负荷预测预测方法。该方法是首先利用GMDH算法获得LSSVM建模中的输入变量;然后利用基于自适应变异的PSO算法对LSSVM建模中的参数进行优化,选用某地区2008~2013年的历史数据作为模型的训练样本建立模型;最后使用训练好的GMDHPSO-LSSVM模型对2014、2015年的用电量进行外推预测。组合模型预测结果表明该方法达到了较高的预测精度,预测精度提高了2.21%。展开更多
Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to consider the concept of Fuzzy Radial Basis Function Neural Networks with Information Granulation(IG-FRBFNN)and their optimization realized by means of the Multiobjective Partic...Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to consider the concept of Fuzzy Radial Basis Function Neural Networks with Information Granulation(IG-FRBFNN)and their optimization realized by means of the Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization(MOPSO).Design/methodology/approach–In fuzzy modeling,complexity,interpretability(or simplicity)as well as accuracy of the obtained model are essential design criteria.Since the performance of the IG-RBFNN model is directly affected by some parameters,such as the fuzzification coefficient used in the FCM,the number of rules and the orders of the polynomials in the consequent parts of the rules,the authors carry out both structural as well as parametric optimization of the network.A multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization using Crowding Distance(MOPSO-CD)as well as O/WLS learning-based optimization are exploited to carry out the structural and parametric optimization of the model,respectively,while the optimization is of multiobjective character as it is aimed at the simultaneous minimization of complexity and maximization of accuracy.Findings–The performance of the proposed model is illustrated with the aid of three examples.The proposed optimization method leads to an accurate and highly interpretable fuzzy model.Originality/value–A MOPSO-CD as well as O/WLS learning-based optimization are exploited,respectively,to carry out the structural and parametric optimization of the model.As a result,the proposed methodology is interesting for designing an accurate and highly interpretable fuzzy model.展开更多
文摘This paper presents a technique for Medium Term Load Forecasting (MTLF) using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm based on Least Squares Regression Methods to forecast the electric loads of the Jordanian grid for year of 2015. Linear, quadratic and exponential forecast models have been examined to perform this study and compared with the Auto Regressive (AR) model. MTLF models were influenced by the weather which should be considered when predicting the future peak load demand in terms of months and weeks. The main contribution for this paper is the conduction of MTLF study for Jordan on weekly and monthly basis using real data obtained from National Electric Power Company NEPCO. This study is aimed to develop practical models and algorithm techniques for MTLF to be used by the operators of Jordan power grid. The results are compared with the actual peak load data to attain minimum percentage error. The value of the forecasted weekly and monthly peak loads obtained from these models is examined using Least Square Error (LSE). Actual reported data from NEPCO are used to analyze the performance of the proposed approach and the results are reported and compared with the results obtained from PSO algorithm and AR model.
文摘针对电力负荷预测粒子群优化最小二乘支持向量机(Least Squares Support Vector Machine,LSSVM)模型输入节点难以确定的问题,提出了一种基于数据分组处理方法(Group Method of Data Handling,GMDH)来优化PSO-LSSVM(Particle Swarm Optimization-Least Squares Support Vector Machine)的中长期电力负荷预测预测方法。该方法是首先利用GMDH算法获得LSSVM建模中的输入变量;然后利用基于自适应变异的PSO算法对LSSVM建模中的参数进行优化,选用某地区2008~2013年的历史数据作为模型的训练样本建立模型;最后使用训练好的GMDHPSO-LSSVM模型对2014、2015年的用电量进行外推预测。组合模型预测结果表明该方法达到了较高的预测精度,预测精度提高了2.21%。
基金This work was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea Grant funded by the Korean Government(NRF-2010-D00065)the Grant of the Korean Ministry of Education,Science and Technology(The Regional Core Research Program/Center of Healthcare Technology Development)the GRRC program of Gyeonggi province[GRRC SUWON 2011-B2,Center for U-city Security&Surveillance Technology].
文摘Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to consider the concept of Fuzzy Radial Basis Function Neural Networks with Information Granulation(IG-FRBFNN)and their optimization realized by means of the Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization(MOPSO).Design/methodology/approach–In fuzzy modeling,complexity,interpretability(or simplicity)as well as accuracy of the obtained model are essential design criteria.Since the performance of the IG-RBFNN model is directly affected by some parameters,such as the fuzzification coefficient used in the FCM,the number of rules and the orders of the polynomials in the consequent parts of the rules,the authors carry out both structural as well as parametric optimization of the network.A multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization using Crowding Distance(MOPSO-CD)as well as O/WLS learning-based optimization are exploited to carry out the structural and parametric optimization of the model,respectively,while the optimization is of multiobjective character as it is aimed at the simultaneous minimization of complexity and maximization of accuracy.Findings–The performance of the proposed model is illustrated with the aid of three examples.The proposed optimization method leads to an accurate and highly interpretable fuzzy model.Originality/value–A MOPSO-CD as well as O/WLS learning-based optimization are exploited,respectively,to carry out the structural and parametric optimization of the model.As a result,the proposed methodology is interesting for designing an accurate and highly interpretable fuzzy model.
