Estimating peak response frequencies in a tidal band in the seas adjacent to China with a numerical model

A numerical method is designed to examine the response properties of real sea areas to open ocean forcing. The application of this method to modeling the China＇s adjacent seas shows that the Bohai Sea has a highest peak response frequency （PRF） of 1.52 d^-1; the northern Yellow Sea has a PRF of 1.69 d^-1; the Gyeonggi Bay has a high amplitude gain plateau in the frequency band roughly from 1.7 to 2.7 d^-1; the Yellow Sea （includ- ing the Gyeonggi Bay）, the East China Sea shelf and the Taiwan Strait have a common high amplitude gain band with frequencies around 1.76 to 1.78 d^-1 and are shown to be a system that responds to the open ocean forcing in favor of amplifying the waves with frequencies in this band; the Beibu Gulf, the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea deep basin have PRFs of 0.91, 1.01 and 0.98 d^-1 respectively. In addition, the East China Sea has a Poincare mode PRF of 3.91 d^-1. The PRFs of the Bohal Sea, the northern Yellow Sea, the Bei- bu Gulf and the South China Sea can be explained by a classical quarter （half for the Bohai Sea） wavelength resonance theory. The results show that further investigations are needed for the response dynamics of the Yellow Sea-East China Sea-Taiwan Strait system, the East China Sea Poincare mode, the Talwan Strait, and the Gulf of Thailand.

Estimate of Peaks of Carbon Emissions and Pricing of Carbon Emission Permit in China

With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.

中国—东盟能源绿色低碳转型合作的多元基础与路径选择

能源领域作为实现“双碳”目标的主战场,清洁化、低碳化是其转型发展的必然趋势。中国与东盟高度重视能源合作,在降碳减排的大趋势下,中国—东盟能源绿色低碳转型合作具有巨大潜力。中国与东盟国家虽在能源绿色低碳转型合作上存在地缘优势与政治互信、能源绿色转型诉求一致、优势互补与供需匹配、绿色合作成果丰硕等多元基础,但仍然面临着国际能源局势动荡、能源绿色低碳转型基础条件相对薄弱、国别差异下合作机制难以统一、能源绿色低碳转型制度尚未健全、大国博弈加大合作阻力等现实问题。对此,提出中国与东盟要保持能源供应多元化、夯实能源绿色转型基础、创新合作机制、完善相关政策制度、增强政治互信等对策和建议。

“中国崛起顶峰论”:特点、危害以及应对建议

近年来,西方政客、媒体与智库正在全球范围内掀起了一场“中国崛起顶峰论”,认定中国崛起已到顶峰,唱衰中国发展前景,打压中国增长预期。这种论调对中国的冲击在部分经济领域正在奏效。本文梳理了新一轮“中国崛起顶峰论”的特点、叙事以及当前造成的危害,认为眼下当务之急是坚持深化改革、全方位对外开放、做大经济蛋糕、提升民众普遍收获感,用事实回击“中国崛起顶峰”的谬论。同时,在领导力、思想及财力等方面做好与美西方舆论对冲的准备,打好反攻心战、反围剿战。

Bimodality and growth of the spectra of typhoon-generated waves in northern South China Sea

Buoy-based observations of wave spectra during the passage of three typhoons in the northern South China Sea are examined.Though most spectra of mature typhoon-generated waves are unimodal,double-peaked spectra account for a significant proportion during the growing and decaying stages.This is due either to the superposition of swells on local wind waves or to the mechanism of nonlinear interaction between different wave components.The growth rate of energy density is an effective way to predict spectrum variation.The dominant wave direction depends on the location of the typhoon center to the site,but the direction spread shows no regularity in distant regions.In this study,a new six-parameter spectral formula is proposed to represent doublepeaked spectra and is shown to provide a better fit than previous models.The theoretical relationship between shape parameter and spectral width is still applicable to each peak.The characteristics of the variations of spectral parameters are analyzed.It is demonstrated that the spectral parameters are not only related to the typhoon intensity and typhoon track,but also have strong intercorrelations.Moreover,the growth relation between significant wave height and significant wave period is obtained to fit the typhoon-generated waves.

A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year(or 9.6 EJ/year),in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year(or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year(or 91.9 EJ/year)around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI(energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.

Estimation of Peak Water Level in Pearl River Estuary under the Background of Sea Level Rise

[Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5.8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1-in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 m at Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.

Landform Planation Index Extracted from DEMs： A Case Study in Ordos Platform of China

Planation surface, a surface that is almost flat, is a kind of low-relief landforms. Planation surface is the consequence of the denudation and planation processes under a tectonic stable condition. The quantitative expression of the characteristics of planation surface plays a key role in reconstructing and describing the evolutionary process of landforms. In this study, Landform Planation Index(LPI), a new terrain derivative, was proposed to quantify the characteristics of planation surface. The LPIs were calculated based on the summit surfaces formed according to the clustering results of peaks. Ten typical areas in the Ordos Platform located in the central part of the Loess Plateau of China are chosen as the test areas for investigating their planation characteristics with the LPI. The experimental results indicate that the LPI can be effectively used to quantify the characteristics of planation surfaces. In addition, the LPI can be further used to depict the patterns of spatial differentiation in the Ordos Platform. Although the present Ordos Platform area is full of the high-density gullies, its planation characteristics is found to be well preserved. Furthermore, the characteristics of the planation surfaces can also reflect the original morphology of the Ordos Platform before the loess dusts deposition process evolved in this area. The statistical results of the LPI show that there is a gradually increasing tendency along with the increasing of slope gradient of summit surface. It indicates that the characteristics of planation surfaces vary among test areas with different landforms. These findings help to deepen the understanding of planation characteristics of the loess landform and its underlying paleotopography. Results of this study can be also served as an important theoretical reference value for revealing the evolutionary process of loess landform.

数字经济助力“双碳”战略的内在逻辑与实现路径

数字经济的快速发展为我国的“双碳”战略提供了新的机遇。文章在探讨数字经济的内涵及其特征的基础上,提出了数字经济助力“双碳”战略的3个内在逻辑:产业逻辑、技术逻辑和管理逻辑,并从顶层设计、技术攻关、搭建全国性的大数据平台、自身的碳减排问题等4个方面提出了数字经济助力“双碳”战略的实现路径。

国内主流媒体“双碳”话语中的中国国家形象建构——基于语料库的积极话语分析

从积极话语分析视角出发,选取《中国日报》自2020年9月22日至2022年12月31日期间有关碳达峰、碳中和的英文报道为研究语料,采用语料库与话语分析相结合的研究方法,从高频实词、高频词搭配网络、索引行三个切入点,分析国内主流媒体“双碳”话语所建构的中国国家形象。研究表明,“双碳”语境下的中国国家形象表现出勇担治理责任、积极应对危机、寻求多方合作、主动施以援助、倡导生态文明、探索创新理念等特征。以上特征的形成是政府作为与媒体言说共同作用的结果,体现了中国政府对“共同但有区别责任”的践行,对“和合共生、和谐共存”生态哲学观的传承。研究结论对中国特色“双碳”话语建设及中国国家形象的对外宣传具有一定的启示意义。

国际经贸规则重构及碳达峰背景下的华东地区电力需求分析及预测

近年来国内外形势剧变,新冠疫情、“碳达峰”目标以及RCEP和CPTPP等新型国际经贸规则对我国的产业和经济结构产生较大影响,从而对电力需求产生影响。针对2021—2040年华东地区的电力需求,在设定新冠疫情影响中长期化、2030年“碳达峰”目标实现、国际经贸格局变动如中国成功加入RCEP和CPTPP等情景基础上,基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)和全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)等方法,预测2021—2040年各省市的GDP及产业结构等宏观经济数据和发展趋势,并采用电力强度法对该地区电力需求进行预测。结果显示:基准情景、新冠冲击情景和综合情景下,四省一市的电力需求稳定增长;“碳达峰”目标实现情景下,各省市在2025年前相较于基准情景电力需求增长率略微提升,2025年之后的增长率相对放缓,RCEP情景则与之相反;由于各省市产业结构的变动,加入CPTPP对各省市的影响也将呈现不同倾向。

戏剧艺术中国式现代化创作初探

中国式现代化是一种历史的进程,也是一种文明的创造。它立足中华民族的传统根脉,以促进新时代中国人的全面发展为宗旨,以民族性和时代性为突出特点,在彰显新时代中国大美中展现人类文明最新最美的形态样貌之一。作为文艺的重要门类,戏剧在呈现人类文明新形态上独具优势。以人民为中心,塑造最新最美的中国形象是戏剧艺术中国式现代化创作的根本目标。扎根现实,寓最新最美的中国形象于戏剧艺术创造中,是戏剧艺术中国式现代化的基本创作原则。以人物为核心,藉由丰富多变之境助力人物生命最重要瞬间的美的定型,是戏剧艺术中国式现代化创作的主要策略。以合情合理之境中异于常理的行动突出美,以独具特色之境中博采众长的动作彰显美,是戏剧艺术高峰作品创作的基本规律,也是戏剧艺术中国式现代化创作的具体方法。

中国东北植被生长峰值时空变化及可持续性分析

植被生长峰值不仅是典型的物候节点,也是植被最大生长能力的重要指示参数。本文以中国东北地区为研究区域,基于长时序遥感NDVI数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验法探索植被生长峰值的变化趋势,利用Hurst指数对植被生长峰值进行可持续性分析。结果表明:1)我国东北地区植被生长峰值时间点(POP)和最大生长幅度(PEAK)整体上呈现出波动上升的趋势。植被峰值时间点在东部以及北部阔叶林和草原区域表现为延迟趋势;植被最大生长幅度在中部、北部以及西南部表现为增强趋势,在森林区峰值时间点表现为延迟趋势,生长峰值表现为增强趋势;2)东北地区整体上植被返青开始期(SOS)和生长峰值时间主要以延迟为主,峰值幅度有所升高;3)Hurst指数结果表明,东北地区植被PEAK呈持续增强趋势,仅6.38%的区域与过去呈现相反的变化趋势,植被增强区域主要集中在中部地区。东北地区植被生长峰值变化可持续性研究,可以为评价东北地区植被固碳能力和生态系统功能提供参考。

“碳政治”话语的构建、传播与中国化:自主知识体系视角

“双碳”话语(政策)被纳入到我国生态文明建设整体布局,并成为全面建设人与自然和谐共生中国式现代化的任务目标和实践进路,使得“碳政治”成为继“可持续发展”之后国际绿色话语实现国内主流化的又一个实例。30多年来,国际“碳政治”话语(政策)体系的构建与传播,经历了围绕《联合国气候变化框架公约》及其《京都议定书》的初步形成、哥本哈根气候大会及其发展议题挑战、《巴黎协定》与“国家自主(碎片)化”落实架构等三个主要阶段,而中国作为世界最大发展中国家和新兴经济体,则表现为对这一不断演进发展中话语(政策)系统的、从“低碳”逐渐转向“双碳”目标指向的国内化适应与重构。中国“碳政治”话语(政策)是一个以全球气候变化应对的自主性立场与认知行动为根本特征的“自主知识体系”,但其进一步拓展完善,也需要深入思考环境人文社科议题上国家(地方)自主性与全人类共同性之间关系、环境人文社科自主知识体系与学者主体性之间关系等基础性议题。

日本地质调查局生态保护修复举措及其启示

生态保护和修复是生态文明建设的重要抓手,同时也是“美丽中国”和“双碳”目标实现的关键举措,对促进人与自然和谐共生具有重要的理论和现实意义。近年来国外地质调查机构快速转型成为生态保护修复的核心力量,并取得了许多成果,相关经验值得借鉴。本文聚焦日本地质调查局生态保护修复举措,分别从组织机制调整与构建、环境风险系统搭建、中长期战略布局等方面开展了分析,并基于此对我国地质调查工作提出了一些建议,如:重视组织机制建设,理顺生态保护修复机构的相关权责体系;加强连续性的战略规划的设计与部署,分级制定适用于不同层级机构的“长—中—短”期计划举措;加强重点技术攻关,全力提升我国生态修复内生动力;拓展国际合作,积极参与生态保护修复区域性和全球性的计划与项目,提升我国生态保护修复能力和国际影响力。

“双碳”目标下中俄天然气能源合作现状、问题与建议

中俄分别是世界主要天然气进口国和出口国,两国天然气能源合作体现了双方能源结构的互补性,但目前中俄天然气合作也存在着定价协商停滞、基础设施不完善、合作模式单一等问题,不断制约着两国天然气合作的规模和质量。在国际能源转型和脱碳化的发展背景下,在“一带一路”倡议的支撑下,中俄天然气合作迎来了新的机遇,必须尽快解决定价问题,促进能源基础设施现代、推进产业结构升级和创新合作模式。在“双碳”目标下推进中俄两国天然气能源合作有助于两国顺利实现“双碳”目标,维护国家能源安全,促进经济发展,同时为实现全球能源转型和保护生态环境作出贡献。

绿色产品认证服务碳达峰碳中和目标的思考与建议

我国自2020年提出“3060碳达峰、碳中和”目标以来,中共中央、国务院做出多项部署安排,为充分发挥质量认证加强质量管理、服务经济社会高质量发展的重要基础性制度作用,本文梳理了中国绿色产品认证与标识体系的发展现状,研究其服务“双碳”目标的作用和贡献,分析其发展中存在的体系建设待完善、标准供给不足、互认程度不高等问题,提出了通过采信推动体系建设、增加认证依据标准绿色通道、加强与国际涉绿合格评定衔接互认等建议,为绿色产品认证服务我国“双碳”目标实现、助力绿色低碳发展提供相关参考。

“双碳”目标下西北地区碳金融发展问题探析

在“双碳”目标已经成为国家顶层战略的背景下,绿色低碳发展成为推动经济高质量发展的内在要求。西北地区是中国重要的能源基地,但经济发展相对滞后,为实现低碳转型的目标需要金融领域的大力支持,发展碳金融成为本地区可持续发展的必由之路。目前,本地区在发展碳金融过程中面临巨大挑战,本文从地区实际出发,针对西北地区碳金融发展过程中存在的问题进行探析。

习近平关于全球气候治理重要论述及其时代价值

全球气候治理关乎人类未来,是实现人与自然和谐共生的必然选择。习近平关于全球气候治理重要论述既是应对全球气候危机的现实需要,也是建设美丽中国和构建清洁美丽世界的应有之意,指明了全球气候治理需要以人类命运共同体理念为价值引领、遵守共同但有区别的责任原则、稳步推进碳达峰碳中和。这些重要论述为全球气候治理提供了中国方案,从而推动构建全球气候治理的新格局,不断提升中国气候外交的国际话语权。

“双碳”背景下中俄低碳能源合作的法律路径

低碳能源国际合作旨在实现能源合作绿色转型,促进人与自然和谐共生,实现经济效能与绿色效能相协调,推动实现人类命运共同体。当前,在地理位置相邻和政治高度互信等优势的推动下,中俄在天然气、核能、电力等清洁能源领域的合作水平不断提高,但两国低碳能源国际合作也存在着合作制度不完善、能源基础设施管辖权不明确、争端解决机制存在缺陷等法律问题。在碳达峰、碳中和目标的指引下,应通过完善低碳能源法律体系、明确能源基础设施司法管辖、加强能源基础设施安全监管、改进争端解决法律机制等措施,积极构建安全高效的中俄低碳能源国际合作机制。