We present a novel method to analyze extreme events of flows over manifolds called Peaks Over Manifold (POM). Here we show that under general and realistic hypotheses, the distribution of affectation measures converge...We present a novel method to analyze extreme events of flows over manifolds called Peaks Over Manifold (POM). Here we show that under general and realistic hypotheses, the distribution of affectation measures converges to a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The method is applicable to floods, ice cover extent, extreme rainfall or marine heatwaves. We present an application to a synthetic data set on tide height and to real ice cover data in Antartica.展开更多
Accurate flood prediction is an important tool for risk management and hydraulic works design on a watershed scale. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate 24 linear and non-linear regression models,...Accurate flood prediction is an important tool for risk management and hydraulic works design on a watershed scale. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate 24 linear and non-linear regression models, using only upstream data to estimate real-time downstream flooding. Four critical downstream estimation points in the Mataquito and Maule river basins located in central Chile were selected to estimate peak flows using data from one, two, or three upstream stations. More than one thousand paper-based storm hydrographs were manually analyzed for rainfall events that occurred between 1999 and 2006, in order to determine the best models for predicting downstream peak flow. The Peak Flow Index (IQP) (defined as the quotient between upstream and downstream data) and the Transit Times (TT) between upstream and downstream points were also obtained and analyzed for each river basin. The Coefficients of Determination (R2), the Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE), and the Bland-Altman test (ACBA) were used to calibrate and validate the best selected model at each basin. Despite the high variability observed in peak flow data, the developed models were able to accurately estimate downstream peak flows using only upstream flow data.展开更多
文摘We present a novel method to analyze extreme events of flows over manifolds called Peaks Over Manifold (POM). Here we show that under general and realistic hypotheses, the distribution of affectation measures converges to a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The method is applicable to floods, ice cover extent, extreme rainfall or marine heatwaves. We present an application to a synthetic data set on tide height and to real ice cover data in Antartica.
文摘Accurate flood prediction is an important tool for risk management and hydraulic works design on a watershed scale. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate 24 linear and non-linear regression models, using only upstream data to estimate real-time downstream flooding. Four critical downstream estimation points in the Mataquito and Maule river basins located in central Chile were selected to estimate peak flows using data from one, two, or three upstream stations. More than one thousand paper-based storm hydrographs were manually analyzed for rainfall events that occurred between 1999 and 2006, in order to determine the best models for predicting downstream peak flow. The Peak Flow Index (IQP) (defined as the quotient between upstream and downstream data) and the Transit Times (TT) between upstream and downstream points were also obtained and analyzed for each river basin. The Coefficients of Determination (R2), the Standard Error of the Estimate (SEE), and the Bland-Altman test (ACBA) were used to calibrate and validate the best selected model at each basin. Despite the high variability observed in peak flow data, the developed models were able to accurately estimate downstream peak flows using only upstream flow data.
