Evaluation of a traditional method for peak flow discharge estimation for floods in the Wenchuan Earthquake area,Sichuan Province,China

Peak discharge of flood in small mountainous watershed is usually calculated using the "Rainstorm–runoff calculation method in small watersheds in Sichuan Province"(RRM). This study evaluated the RRM calculation using real-time monitored rainfall and hydrologic data from a small watershed in the Wenchuan Earthquake area of Sichuan Province, China. The results indicated that the discharge values given by the RRM are commonly overestimating the measured discharge. The overestimation rate was discussed and empirical equations were proposed for improving RRM estimations, based on the relationship between calculated and measured discharge values at different watershed scales(2, 30, and 40 km2), under different rainfall probabilities(0.97–0.5, 0.5–0.2, and 0.2–0.002), and for different rainfall durations(0–6, 6–24, and >24 h). The results of this study help contribute to the understanding of water floods formation and help provide more accurate estimations of peak flow discharge in small watersheds in the Wenchuan Earthquake area.

The migration of the crustal deformation peak area in the eastern Himalayan Syntaxis inferred from present-day crustal deformation and morpho-tectonic markers

The present-day Global Positioning System(GPS)velocity field shows that the Indian Plate is not a complete rigid block,as its northeastern corner has been torn off and clockwise rotating relative to the main part.With the updated GPS velocity data,the Euler vector of the northeastern corner of the Indian Plate relative to the stable main plate is deduced as(89.566±0.06°E,26.131±0.05°N,1.34±0.11°/Myr).The peak area of the present-day crustal deformation is located in the Chayu deformation belt with the compressional dilation strain rate over 160 nanostrain/yr.However,the Namche-Barwa Syntaxis with the massive crustal thickening and intense surface erosion is generally considered to be the previous locus of the strongest compressional stress in the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis over long geological timescales.Thus,there is a discrepancy between the previous and present-day crustal deformation peak areas.We argue the migration of the crustal deformation peak area with a total distance of about 120 km and ascribe it to the variation of stress conditions caused by northeast India’s clockwise rotation.

Effect of Flood Peak Discharge Control by a Small Reservoir in an Urbanized Area—Case Study in the Kurabe River Basin, Japan

Recently severe damage of flooding by urbanization was frequently occurred. To prevent this damage, small reservoir was constructed in the urbanized residential area. This paper describes an effect of flood peak discharge control by a small reservoir (control reservoir) caused by rapidly developed urbanization. Although work for this purpose was conducted, research on the effects of the control reservoir was not conducted until now. This research, conducted by simulation, was a case study in the Kurabe River Basin in the Tedori River Alluvial Fan Area, Japan, based on the precise investigation of the reservoir in the actual field. The study was conducted to determine not only the actual control reservoir capacity for the newly developed residential area but also the ideal capacity for all present residential areas and the largest capacity allowable for a maximum rainfall event that recently occurred. The control reservoir effects between individual blocks and the entire basin area were compared by dividing the test basin into 15 blocks (sub-basins). The results showed that the effects on the capacity per unit area of the residential area in blocks have close relationship with the decreasing ratio of peak discharge in blocks. Consequently, the effects of control reservoir capacity and the limitation were clarified. In the future, control reservoirs should be constructed for all of the already developed residential areas, for example, by utilizing underground car parking lot. The results of this research can contribute to the design of the control reservoir for protection against flooding damage in urbanized areas.

The Attenuation Law of Horizontal Peak Acceleration on the Rock Site in Yunnan Area

In this paper,we select 131 accelerograms observed in the Yunnan area and cite 114 accelerograms from western America.By statistical regression analysis,we get two separate acceleration attenuation formulations based on the data of Yunnan and those of both Yunnan and western America.By analyzing and comparing the above results with the result deprived from intensity-earthquake ground motion,this paper proposes the formula below,which may show the acceleration attenuation feature of the Yunnan area:Ap=1291.07e0.5275Ms(R+15)-t.

Impacts of water surface area of watershed on design flood

In order to analyze the impact of the water surface area of a watershed on the design flood, the watershed was classified into a land watershed and a water surface watershed for flood flow calculation at the same time interval. Then, the design flood of the whole watershed was obtained by adding the two flood flows together. Using this method, we calculated design floods with different water surface areas of three reservoirs and analyzed the impact of water surface area on the flood volume and peak flow. The results indicate that larger water surface areas lead to greater impacts on the flood volume and peak flow. For the same watershed area, the impact of water surface area on the flood volume and peak flow is positively proportional to the flood frequency, i.e., the higher the frequency, the greater the impact becomes.

Grey Prediction of Seismic Activity in the Three Gorges Area of the Yangtze River

On the basis of historical earthquake data and recent observations, two grey models prediction of the next seismic active period and the maximal magnitude of earthquakes which might occur during that period are constructed on the basis of the grey theory. As predicted by the two models, the next seismic active period would last 79 years, and that the maximal magnitude of earthquakes occurring within the period would not exceed 5.2. These results provide an important basis for the assessment of earthquake risks and reduction of disasters in the Three Gorges area.

Effects of Increasing Rainfall Depths and Impervious Areas on the Hydrologic Responses

Hydrologic modeling is a popular tool for estimating the hydrological response of a watershed. However, modeling processes are becoming more complex due to land-use changes such as urbanization, industrialization, and the expansion of agricultural activities. The primary goal of the research was to use the HEC-HMS model to evaluate the impact of impervious soil layers and the increase in rainfall-runoff processes on hydrologic processes. For these purposes, the Watershed Modelling System (WMS) and Hydrologic Engineering Center’s-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) models were used in this study to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. To compute runoff rate, runoff volume, base flow, and flow routing methods SCS curve number, SCS unit hydrograph, recession, and loss routing methods were selected for the research, respectively. To reduce the processing time and computational complexity, a small section of the Pipestem Creek Watershed was selected to understand the methods and concepts associated with the hydrologic simulation model building. A DEM along with other required data such as land use land cover data, soil type data, and meteorological data was utilized to delineate the watershed in WMS. The output of WMS was utilized to run the HEC-HMS model for five different scenario analyses. All the relevant data were plugged in to the model to get the desired map. Subsequently, outlets at appropriate locations were selected for the sub-basin delineation for further analysis. Finally, the model was parametrized to get successful simulation results. Overall, peak discharges and runoff volumes were increased with increasing storm depths and impervious areas. Peak discharges were increased to 36% and 51% when rainfall depths were increased by 10% and 20% from the initial rainfall depth, respectively. Runoff volumes were also increased to 35% and 49% for the same scenarios, respectively. Peak discharges were increased to 12% and 78% with a 10% and 20%, respectively, increase in impervious areas. The runoff volumes were increased by 12% and 76% when impervious areas were increased by 10% and 20%, respectively. The simulation models responded well, and the peak discharges and runoff volumes increased with increasing storm depths and impervious areas.

川渝地区氢能产业政策环境研究

具有零碳排放且可再生的氢能,是促进传统油气行业转型升级和推进“双碳”目标顺利实现的重要载体和抓手。作为新能源体系的重要支柱,氢能产业的健康可持续发展离不开政策的引导和支持。为了给各级政府提供决策参考、指导行业健康发展,从氢能产业制储运加用全产业链角度出发,调研了川渝地区氢能发展现状,重点对2019—2023年川渝地区氢能产业政策进行了梳理和深入研究。研究结果表明:(1)近几年川渝地区密集出台涉及氢能的扶持政策,基本涵盖了氢能全产业链的关键节点;(2)在发展路线方面,四川地区重点集中发展氢气的制备,重庆地区侧重发展氢能应用端;(3)在氢能消纳方面,两地政策都重点集中在氢燃料电池汽车领域;(4)在氢能补贴方面,两地氢能产业补贴包括氢能产业发展补贴、科技创新平台奖励等,不同城市的补贴领域、具体要求及补贴标准都各有不同;(5)在安全管理方面,川渝地区氢能管理办法相对保守,都将氢气纳入危险化工用品;(6)在加氢站建设与管理方面,川渝地区仅成都和攀枝花两市出台了关于加氢站建设与管理的具体办法,而在其他地区尚未制定相关政策。

“双碳”目标下东北黑土区耕地利用生态效率时空格局与演变趋势

[目的]探究东北黑土区耕地利用生态效率的时空格局和演变趋势,将碳源与碳汇融入耕地利用过程,这对于实现黑土减排增效和“双碳”目标至关重要。[方法]基于超效率SBM模型、核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析和空间插值工具等方法,系统考察了2006—2020年东北黑土区耕地利用生态效率的时空特征与演进规律。[结果]黑土区耕地利用生态效率历经波动上升、显著下降和迅速回升3个阶段,总体处于较高发展水平,北部边缘城市的效率值明显高于中南部地区,基期和末期区间两极分化局势尤为显著,整体发展严重失衡;黑土区耕地利用生态效率全局空间相关特性并不明显,大致呈现“边缘—中心”空间扩散格局,由南北两端高值集聚向内及四周递减,而后形成多个块状高值区和低值分布带,规模集聚优势未能得到充分发挥;多数城市均存在不同程度的投入与产出冗余,劳动力和化肥冗余问题较为严重,碳排放冗余是造成黑土区耕地利用生态效率损失的普遍因素。[结论]优化要素配置和污染减排治理成为黑土利用重点改善方向,也是提升黑土区耕地利用生态效率的关键路径。

基于监测台网加速度信号分析的上海周边区域地震影响评价

2021年11月至2023年8月期间,上海市周边区域共发生了5次有感地震,分别为江苏盐城市大丰区海域5.0级、江苏常州市天宁区4.2级、黄海海域4.8级、上海市青浦区3.1级和山东德州市平原县5.5级地震,同济大学监测台网的4个测站捕获了这5次地震的场地和典型结构加速度信号,分析了各次地震作用下场地和典型结构的加速度信号的峰值及持时,探讨了各次地震信号的反应谱特征,对照设计反应谱曲线的第一特征段和第二特征段,对这5次周边区域地震对上海市的影响进行评价。

面向空间使用活动数据的城市建成区碳核算方法研究——以黑龙江省哈尔滨市为例

气候变化是全世界正在面对的重大威胁,实现碳达峰、碳中和目标已成为中国重要的城市发展战略。碳核算是监测城市碳排放情况,调控低碳城市建设的重要技术手段。以城市建成区为碳核算范围,并将城市碳核算方法与城市空间要素相衔接,这对于实现城市“双碳”目标发展具有极强的现实意义。以黑龙江省哈尔滨市为研究对象,总结分析其15年间的能源活动数据与空间使用活动数据,构建城市建成区碳核算体系与面向城市空间使用活动数据的城市建成区碳核算方法,并将核算结果与能源使用碳核算结果进行对比,验证核算方法的准确性。在此基础上,提出构建城市碳中和路径预测、开展低碳城市建设专项评估等碳核算方法应用路径,为国土空间规划助力“双碳”目标的实施提供技术支撑。

岩溶区土洞对自由场地震动放大效应的影响

岩溶区土洞的发育改变了自由场的地震工程地质条件,从而影响了地表地震动力响应结果。为探讨岩溶区土洞对地震动场地效应的影响,设计并构建典型岩溶区土洞自由场地,利用有限差分法开展了不同地震动输入条件下的含土洞场地的地震反应分析。通过与自由场地震反应分析结果对比可知:(1)土洞的存在阻碍了地震波的传播,从而使得地表中心点峰值加速度显著减小,随着输入地震动峰值增大,土洞的影响范围增大,土洞附近地表峰值加速度呈现出先增大后减小,最后逐渐趋向于自由场;(2)土洞的存在使场地的竖向位移增大,且随输入加速度峰值增大而增大、对水平向峰值位移影响较小;(3)加速度放大系数总体呈现出先增大后减小的趋势,随输入加速度峰值增大而减小;(4)土洞的存在使得反应谱的短周期幅值减小,这种减小幅度受输入地震动峰值的影响不明显。

“双碳”下多因素影响垃圾发电布局分析

为了解我国垃圾焚烧发电产业发展趋势,对全国31个省、直辖市、自治区的垃圾焚烧处理现状和发展需求进行了数据分析。研究表明:2000年以来,垃圾焚烧产业迅速发展,垃圾焚烧量与垃圾焚烧厂数量均大幅提高;随着各省不断加快“双碳”行动,垃圾焚烧事业面临发展机遇,同时,不同地区应根据其自身情况制定政策;综合考虑各方面因素,长江沿线地区及东北部分地区为最适宜发展地区。本研究是基于我国垃圾焚烧发电产业的整体现状、各地区的经济发展、垃圾处置和控碳需求基础上的综合研究结果,可以为未来垃圾焚烧产业发展布局提供参考依据。

粤港澳大湾区能源消费碳达峰情景预测研究

本研究结合IPCC能源消费法和夜间灯光数据反演法,估算出2005-2021年粤港澳大湾区各区市的能源消费碳排放量,并基于拓展的STIRPAT预测模型,结合情景假设法和蒙特卡罗动态模拟法,模拟分析大湾区可能的碳达峰路径,进而提出针对性政策建议。研究结果显示,大湾区2005-2021年碳排放量呈现波动上升态势,其中香港地区已于2014年实现碳达峰,澳门地区碳排放量占比较小;珠三角九市自2011年呈现下降态势,2016年后又波动增长。动态模拟发现大湾区在基准情景、低碳情景、极低碳情景、产业转型情景和全低速情景下能如期甚至提前实现2030年碳达峰目标,若采取更积极的碳减排和产业转型政策可以提前实现碳达峰。

喀斯特峰丛洼地3个建群树种“植物-凋落物-土壤”系统氮同位素特征

以喀斯特峰丛洼地3种常见次生林及其建群树种为研究对象,测定3种林分建群种的不同器官及凋落物、土壤的氮含量及氮同位素丰度值(δ^(15)N),探讨植物-凋落物-土壤氮含量及稳定氮同位素组成变化及内在联系。结果显示:3种次生林建群种植物中叶片氮含量最高,茎的氮含量最低,3种次生林建群树种叶片氮含量均显著高于掉落物和土壤氮含量,0~30 cm土壤氮含量显著高于30~90 cm土壤氮含量,土壤养分主要集中于表层土壤;白栎、栓皮栎和光皮桦器官中δ^(15)N变化范围分别为-2.82‰~14.94‰、-1.37‰~9.35‰和-4.39‰~26.06‰,3种建群种器官间氮同位素组成均表现出显著差异(P<0.05);3种建群种群落表层土壤δ^(15)N差异显著,3种林分中0~30 cm土壤δ^(15)N均显著低于30~60 cm和60~90 cm的土壤,δ^(15)N可能是这些群落土壤氮循环过程中的敏感指标,光皮桦叶片氮含量略大于白栎和栓皮栎,光皮桦林土壤表层δ^(15)N大于白栎林和栓皮栎林,光皮桦可能比白栎和栓皮栎更为适应喀斯特生境。

基于AKNN异常检验与ADPC聚类的低压台区拓扑识别方法

低压台区拓扑信息的准确记录是进行台区线损分析、三相不平衡治理等工作的基础。针对目前拓扑档案排查成本高且效率低的问题,提出一种基于自适应k近邻(adaptive k nearest neighbor,AKNN)异常检验和自适应密度峰值(adaptive density peaks clustering,ADPC)聚类的低压台区拓扑识别方法。该方法利用动态时间弯曲(dynamic time warping,DTW)距离度量低压台区用户间电压序列的相似性,通过AKNN异常检验算法检验并校正异常的用户与变压器之间的关系(简称“户变关系”),在得到正确户变关系的基础上,采用ADPC聚类算法对台区内用户进行相位识别;最后,通过实际台区算例分析验证了该方法不需要人为设置参数,能有效实现低压台区的拓扑识别,具有较高的适用性与准确性。

有效不透水面分布对城市雨水径流的影响

城市区域不透水面分布错综复杂,汇流路径多样,不透水面有效性及其产流机制成为城市水文学的热点问题。研究以北京市主城区为对象,构建了基于汇水路径的有效不透水面的识别方法,拟合出总不透水面与有效不透水面的经验公式,定量识别了不透水面有效性对北京市主城区雨水径流的影响。结果表明:考虑不透水面有效性能显著提升模型模拟精度,针对不同城市化阶段,在各种重现期降雨情景下设置不同有效不透水面比例并进行模拟,发现有效不透水面对低重现期降雨产流过程的影响远大于高重现期降雨产流过程,且城市化前期有效不透水面增加会导致较大洪峰增长率,而城市化后期影响减小。研究可为优化城市地面格局,减缓城市洪涝灾害损失提供科学参考。

基于拉曼光谱与色度学的彩色淡水有核珍珠研究

淡水有核珍珠因为其粒径大、圆度好、色彩丰富、光泽强等优点,在珍珠市场上占据了较大份额。目前关于彩色淡水有核珍珠的致色机理尚没有一致的结论,且关于该致色物质如何使淡水有核珍珠呈现多种颜色的研究较少。基于此研究现状,选取多种颜色的淡水有核珍珠进行激光拉曼光谱与色度学研究。拉曼光谱研究发现样品具有三种不同的C—C与C C峰,且表现出对应关系:1123~1125 cm^(-1)处的C—C峰常与1506~1509 cm^(-1)处的C C峰同时出现;1132~1134 cm^(-1)处的C—C峰常与1522~1523或1525 cm^(-1)处的C C峰同时出现;1128~1131 cm^(-1)处的C—C峰常与1506~1509与1520~1523或1525 cm^(-1)的C C双重峰同时出现。依据拉曼光谱中C C键峰的差异将全部样品分为P、T、G、P+T、T+G、P+G共6种类型。结合样品的色度学参数,在同类型样品中,建立亮度L或饱和度S与其拉曼光谱中CO_(3)/C—C峰面积比的相关性,发现P型珠的亮度L与CO_(3)/C—C峰面积比有明显的正相关性,而P、T、G型珠的饱和度S都与CO_(3)/C—C峰面积比有明显的负相关性,证实三种不同的C—C与C C峰是由不同的致色物质所致。并根据拉曼谱峰将彩色淡水有核珍珠中的致色有机物归属为线性多烯类分子。线性多烯分子的拉曼峰位随着有序度的增加而红移,拉曼峰位更靠近红外区的线性多烯分子的碳骨架更长更直,这导致不同类型样品的拉曼光谱中C—C与C C的峰有所区别。此外,依据色度学参数对彩色淡水有核珍珠进行颜色系列的划分。将色调角h∈(0,15)的珍珠归为红色系列;将色调角h∈(15,45)的珍珠归为黄色系列;将色调角h∈(335,360)的珍珠归为紫色系列。

漓江峰丛片区高位岩溶洼地洪涝水文过程及有效治理

漓江峰丛片区高位岩溶洼地洪涝频发,严重影响该地区农村经济发展和自然景观资源开发与保护。本研究选择在漓江峰丛片区暗嵅高位洼地开展洪涝水循环过程研究,对洼地内主要消水口(A01、A03落水洞)进行扩宽和疏通,加大过水能力,使洪涝水害得到有效治理。结果表明:洼地积水成涝对降雨响应迅速,降雨结束后,12~24 h内洼地积水深度就能达到最大,日降雨量超过50 mm或72 h累计降雨量超过90 mm,洼地就容易积水成涝。2023年4-7月共造成了8次洪涝灾害,洪涝总时长达417.5 h(18.6 d)。鱼嵅地下河出口排泄量达到大气降雨补给量的77.77%和87.32%,为暗嵅洼地地下水总排泄口,主要通过中部A01、A02、A03、A044个消水洞排水,4个消水洞不同的消水速度造成了出口流量的4个峰值。A01消水洞水力坡度小,下部管道受方解石矿渣堵塞,消水速度较慢,现仅对A01洞口进行整治,未能有效解决洼地洪涝问题。A03、A04消水洞位于方解石脉矿的南侧,未受到方解石尾矿渣的影响,岩溶管道过水通畅。通过疏通A04消水洞,并将南侧古蚕洼地的洪流引至A03消水洞,缩短洪涝时间66.71 h(2.8 d)。因此,修建好南部排水沟系统,使南部古蚕洼地的水全部通过A03、A04消水洞快速向鱼嵅地下河出口排泄,是进一步减轻暗嵅洼地洪涝受灾程度的重要措施。

“双碳”目标下西部农村生活能源消费特征及碳排放分析

运用能源环境理论、多元线性回归分析和主成分分析方法探究西部地区10个省区(市)农户主要生活能源消费特征及碳排放。结果表明:①西部农村生活能源存在明显区域异质性,四川和甘肃生活能源分布特征极明显,贵州、广西和云南生活能源分布特征明显,陕西、青海、重庆、宁夏和新疆生活能源分布特征不明显。②西部农村主要生活能源平均占比排序依次为:太阳能0.29%、沼气0.79%、液化石油气19.95%、煤40.47%、柴草49.16%、电53.24%,使用绿色能源农户占比仅有18.1%,通过发展绿色能源促进“双碳”目标实现任务艰巨。③若西部农村1789万煤用户、4225万柴草用户和1770万煤气、天然气、液化石油气用户转型升级使用绿色能源,每年能节约标准煤约3700万t,减少CO_(2)排放约1亿t。由此可见,生活能源蕴含着巨大碳减排潜力,是不可忽视的“双碳”载体,应进一步加大居民生活能源消费转型升级以此促进“双碳”目标的实现。