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A review of research on China's carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism 被引量:1
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作者 Feng Wang Fang Yang 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2018年第1期49-58,共10页
In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must r... In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from "research on carbon emission history" to "carbon emission trend prediction," from "research on paths of realizing peak" to "peak restraint research," provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism.Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated. 展开更多
关键词 carbon emissions peak forcing mechanism climate change trend prediction
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Progress, challenge and significance of building a carbon industry system in the context of carbon neutrality strategy 被引量:3
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作者 ZOU Caineng WU Songtao +7 位作者 YANG Zhi PAN Songqi WANG Guofeng JIANG Xiaohua GUAN Modi YU Cong YU Zhichao SHEN Yue 《Petroleum Exploration and Development》 2023年第1期210-228,共19页
Carbon dioxide storage and utilization has become an inevitable trend and choice for sustainable development under the background of global climate change and carbon neutrality.Carbon industry which is dominated by CO... Carbon dioxide storage and utilization has become an inevitable trend and choice for sustainable development under the background of global climate change and carbon neutrality.Carbon industry which is dominated by CO_(2) capture,utilization and storage/CO_(2) capture and storage(CCUS/CCS)is becoming a new strategic industry under the goal of carbon neutrality.The sustainable development of carbon industry needs to learn from the experiences of global oil and gas industry development.There are three types of“carbon”in the earth system.Black carbon is the CO_(2) that has not been sequestered or used and remains in the atmosphere for a long time;grey carbon is the CO_(2) that has been fixed or permanently sequestered in the geological body,and blue carbon is the CO_(2) that could be converted into products for human use through biological,physical,chemical and other ways.The carbon industry system covers carbon generation,carbon capture,carbon transportation,carbon utilization,carbon sequestration,carbon products,carbon finance,and other businesses.It is a revolutionary industrial field to completely eliminate“black carbon”.The development of carbon industry technical system takes carbon emission reduction,zero carbon,negative carbon and carbon economy as the connotation,and the construction of a low-cost and energy-efficient carbon industry system based on CCUS/CCS are strategic measures to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality and clean energy utilization globally.This will promote the“four 80%s”transformation of China's energy supply,namely,to 2060,the percentage of zero-carbon new energy in the energy consumption will be over 80%and the CO_(2) emission will be decreased by 80%to ensure the carbon emission reduction of total 80×10^(8) t from the percentage of carbon-based fossil energy in the energy consumption of over 80%,and the percentage of CO_(2) emission from energy of over 80%in 2021.The carbon industry in China is facing three challenges,large CO_(2) emissions,high percentage of coal in energy consumption,and poor innovative system.Three strategic measures are proposed accordingly,including:(1)unswervingly develop carbon industrial system and ensure the achievement of carbon neutrality as scheduled by 2060;(2)vigorously develop new energy sources and promote a revolutionary transformation of China’s energy production and consumption structure;(3)accelerate the establishment of scientific and technological innovation system of the whole CO_(2) industry.It is of great significance for continuously optimization of ecological environment and construction of green earth and ecological earth to develop the carbon industry system,utilize clean energy,and achieve the strategic goal of global carbon neutrality. 展开更多
关键词 carbon industry system carbon neutrality carbon sequestration green earth carbon footprint carbon trade peak carbon dioxide emission dual carbon target
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Research on Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Technological Pathways in the Chinese Papermaking Industry
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作者 Zaifeng Zhou Fuxiang Wei 《Paper And Biomaterials》 CAS 2023年第4期69-79,共11页
Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and ... Against the backdrop of the dual carbon goals,the papermaking industry in China faces significant pressure to reduce emissions and lower carbon intensity.Based on historical data of energy consumption in the pulp and paper industry in China from 2000 to 2020,this study analyzed the current status of paper production and energy consumption in China.Two methods were employed to predict the growth trend of paper production in China,and three carbon dioxide emission accounting methods were compared.The study used an accounting method based on the industry’s overall energy consumption and predicted the carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry from 2021 to 2060 under three scenarios.The study identified the timing for achieving carbon peak and proposed the measures for carbon neutrality.The results indicated that:(1)the CO_(2)emissions of the Chinese papermaking industry in 2020 were 111.98 million tons.(2)Under low-demand,high-demand,and baseline scenarios,the papermaking industry is expected to achieve carbon peak during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.(3)In 2060,under the three scenarios,CO_(2)emissions from the papermaking industry will decrease by 11%-31%compared to the baseline year.However,there will still be emissions of 72-93 million tons,requiring reductions in fossil energy consumption at the source,increasing forestry carbon sequestration and utilization of Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage(CCUS)technology,and taking measures such as carbon trading to achieve carbon neutrality. 展开更多
关键词 pulp and paper industry carbon dioxide emissions scenario analysis and prediction carbon peak and carbon neutrality decarbonization pathway
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Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions
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作者 Zhen-quan Lu Chu-guo Wu +5 位作者 Neng-you Wu Hai-long Lu Ting Wang Rui Xiao Hui Liu Xin-he Wu 《China Geology》 CAS 2022年第3期475-509,共35页
Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the... Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3) and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4) has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4) into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. 展开更多
关键词 Climate change Global warming PERMAFROST Gas hydrate Greenhouse effect carbon emission peak carbon dioxide emissions carbon neutrality Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environment geological survey engineering China
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The role of new energy in carbon neutral 被引量:20
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作者 ZOU Caineng XIONG Bo +6 位作者 XUE Huaqing ZHENG Dewen GE Zhixin WANG Ying JIANG Luyang PAN Songqi WU Songtao 《Petroleum Exploration and Development》 CSCD 2021年第2期480-491,共12页
Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle,and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect.The fixed or available carb... Carbon dioxide is an important medium of the global carbon cycle,and has the dual properties of realizing the conversion of organic matter in the ecosystem and causing the greenhouse effect.The fixed or available carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is defined as"gray carbon",while the carbon dioxide that cannot be fixed or used and remains in the atmosphere is called"black carbon".Carbon neutral is the consensus of human development,but its implementation still faces many challenges in politics,resources,technology,market,and energy structure,etc.It is proposed that carbon replacement,carbon emission reduction,carbon sequestration,and carbon cycle are the four main approaches to achieve carbon neutral,among which carbon replacement is the backbone.New energy has become the leading role of the third energy conversion and will dominate carbon neutral in the future.Nowadays,solar energy,wind energy,hydropower,nuclear energy and hydrogen energy are the main forces of new energy,helping the power sector to achieve low carbon emissions."Green hydrogen"is the reserve force of new energy,helping further reduce carbon emissions in industrial and transportation fields.Artificial carbon conversion technology is a bridge connecting new energy and fossil energy,effectively reducing the carbon emissions of fossil energy.It is predicted that the peak value of China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach 110×10^(8) t in 2030.The study predicts that China’s carbon emissions will drop to 22×10^(8) t,33×10^(8) t and 44×10^(8) t,respectively,in 2060 according to three scenarios of high,medium,and low levels.To realize carbon neutral in China,seven implementation suggestions have been put forward to build a new"three small and one large"energy structure in China and promote the realization of China’s energy independence strategy. 展开更多
关键词 new energy peak carbon dioxide emissions carbon neutral gray carbon black carbon carbon replacement carbon emissions reduction carbon sequestration carbon cycle
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水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的机制与途径构建 被引量:1
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作者 李智广 钟小剑 王海燕 《中国水利》 2024年第4期7-11,共5页
水土保持碳汇具备负碳技术的特性,受到政府和交易主体广泛关注和青睐,未来将在我国碳排放权交易市场中得到广泛应用。从建立碳汇项目开发团队、实施碳汇监测与核算、协调撮合交易和宣传示范等4个方面,总结全国首单水土保持碳汇项目开发... 水土保持碳汇具备负碳技术的特性,受到政府和交易主体广泛关注和青睐,未来将在我国碳排放权交易市场中得到广泛应用。从建立碳汇项目开发团队、实施碳汇监测与核算、协调撮合交易和宣传示范等4个方面,总结全国首单水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的实践探索,提出水土保持碳汇项目开发与交易的机制与途径,包括加强水土保持碳汇基础研究和技术攻关、完善水土保持碳汇监测和核算体系、开展碳汇项目开发和探索碳汇交易途径与机制、建立水土保持碳汇纳入温室气体自愿减排交易机制、建设碳汇项目开发队伍与机构、提升项目开发信息管理水平等6个方面。 展开更多
关键词 水土保持 碳达峰碳中和 碳汇项目 开发 途径
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新能源材料与器件课程O2O智慧教学模式探索 被引量:1
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作者 党杰 罗群 +2 位作者 杨艳 韩广 李谦 《高教学刊》 2024年第7期5-8,共4页
新能源材料对“碳达峰、碳中和”国家战略目标的实现具有重要的支撑作用。新能源材料与器件课程是新能源材料研究与应用的基础,也是新能源人才培养过程中的主干课程,现有教学模式很难满足对高质量新能源人才的培养,因此该文提出将“智... 新能源材料对“碳达峰、碳中和”国家战略目标的实现具有重要的支撑作用。新能源材料与器件课程是新能源材料研究与应用的基础,也是新能源人才培养过程中的主干课程,现有教学模式很难满足对高质量新能源人才的培养,因此该文提出将“智慧教学”理念及“O2O模式”应用到课程教学的各个环节。通过信息化技术搭建智慧教育平台,延伸教与学的边界,建构出一种虚实相生、情境结合、意象交融的教学空间;通过智能化的方式提高教学效率,增强教学互动,提升学生学习效率,加强信息反馈和教学管理。从而开发教师和学生的聪明才智和主观能动性,使投入得到最大化产出、获得最优学习效果,支撑我国新能源人才的培养。 展开更多
关键词 新能源材料与器件 O2O 智慧教学 互动式教学法 碳达峰、碳中和
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龙江碳达峰碳中和目标实现路径研究——基于财会、统计与审计协同监督视角
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作者 白云 刘广民 张国栋 《哈尔滨学院学报》 2024年第9期1-5,共5页
文章从理论层面阐释了财会、统计与审计协同监督在实现碳达峰碳中和目标中的内在机理和引导策略,构建了一套针对碳达峰碳中和目标实现的财会、统计与审计协同监督体系。旨在发挥各部门协同监督作用,探索在财会、统计与审计协同监督框架... 文章从理论层面阐释了财会、统计与审计协同监督在实现碳达峰碳中和目标中的内在机理和引导策略,构建了一套针对碳达峰碳中和目标实现的财会、统计与审计协同监督体系。旨在发挥各部门协同监督作用,探索在财会、统计与审计协同监督框架下实现碳达峰碳中和目标的有效路径。通过此举激发社会各界参与碳达峰碳中和目标的积极性,确保按计划实现碳达峰碳中和。 展开更多
关键词 碳达峰碳中和 财会 统计 审计 协同监督
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低碳理念引领建筑设计创新 被引量:1
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作者 陈志青 《浙江建筑》 2024年第2期1-8,共8页
尊重自然、顺应自然、保护自然,人类才能与大自然和谐共生。以低碳理念作为建筑设计切入点,把低碳理念沉浸到现代建筑创作中,通过废弃矿坑蝶化、轻度介入融入自然、阳光洒满医院、会呼吸的医院、结构成就建筑之美、建筑消隐于环境6个案... 尊重自然、顺应自然、保护自然,人类才能与大自然和谐共生。以低碳理念作为建筑设计切入点,把低碳理念沉浸到现代建筑创作中,通过废弃矿坑蝶化、轻度介入融入自然、阳光洒满医院、会呼吸的医院、结构成就建筑之美、建筑消隐于环境6个案例,展示低碳理念如何节约资源并引领建筑设计创新及高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 双碳政策 低碳理念 自然 创新 节约资源
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水土保持碳汇项目管理信息系统的开发探索
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作者 吴勇 倪友聪 +1 位作者 邹海威 曹正金 《中国水利》 2024年第4期22-26,共5页
水土保持碳汇项目信息化管理可以为水土保持碳汇项目开发提供科学规范的技术手段。分析了水土保持碳汇项目管理信息系统开发的主要挑战、建设目标及总体框架,以福建省长汀县罗地河小流域综合治理水土保持碳汇开发为研究对象,探索水土保... 水土保持碳汇项目信息化管理可以为水土保持碳汇项目开发提供科学规范的技术手段。分析了水土保持碳汇项目管理信息系统开发的主要挑战、建设目标及总体框架,以福建省长汀县罗地河小流域综合治理水土保持碳汇开发为研究对象,探索水土保持碳汇项目开发的全过程信息化体系建设,总结了系统在罗地河小流域综合治理过程中的应用情况以及存在的不足,并提出相关建议,以期为提升水土保持碳汇项目管理水平提供借鉴参考。 展开更多
关键词 水土保持 碳达峰碳中和 碳汇项目 信息化 罗地河小流域
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基于STIRPAT的河北省碳达峰预测研究
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作者 辛春林 赵佳炜 杨建亮 《北京化工大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期125-134,共10页
我国已宣布力争2030年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值,为确保河北省能够保质保量完成碳达峰目标,采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)排放因子法测算河北省2005-2021年化石能源消费碳排放量... 我国已宣布力争2030年前二氧化碳排放达到峰值,为确保河北省能够保质保量完成碳达峰目标,采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)排放因子法测算河北省2005-2021年化石能源消费碳排放量,选取人口、人均GDP、城镇化率、产业结构、能源强度和能源结构6个因素,构建了河北省碳排放人口、财富和技术影响(stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology, STIRPAT)预测模型,通过构建河北省碳排放情景,对河北2022-2040年碳排放量进行了预测。结果表明在基准情景和经济发展情景下,河北省碳排放趋势是持续上升的,未出现达峰点;产业转型、绿色发展和目标导向情景下出现了峰值点,其中目标导向情景在2029年达峰,绿色发展情景在2030年达峰,碳达峰量分别为81 626.658万吨二氧化碳和86 018.255万吨二氧化碳,产业转型情景在2035年达峰,碳达峰量为85 214.349万吨二氧化碳。按照目前情景发展下河北省难以在2030年实现碳达峰,为保质保量完成达峰目标,需要以能源绿色低碳发展为关键手段,同时以科技和制度创新为动力,调整优化产业结构和能源结构。 展开更多
关键词 碳达峰 IPCC排放因子法 STIRPAT预测模型 情景构建
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区域碳排放达峰预测模型构建与实现路径研究
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作者 梁力军 冯江林 孙玉璇 《生态经济》 北大核心 2024年第8期30-36,共7页
我国于2020年明确提出了碳排放峰值目标,但学术界在区域碳排放达峰预测模型构建和实现路径方面的研究还相对缺乏。为探索和构建更为有效、准确的区域碳排放达峰预测模型并提出可行的实现路径,首先,分析和选取影响二氧化碳排放量的重要... 我国于2020年明确提出了碳排放峰值目标,但学术界在区域碳排放达峰预测模型构建和实现路径方面的研究还相对缺乏。为探索和构建更为有效、准确的区域碳排放达峰预测模型并提出可行的实现路径,首先,分析和选取影响二氧化碳排放量的重要因素与指标,建立起STIRPAT拓展模型;其次,依托排放系数法及多尺度排放清单模型(MEIC)来计算历史数据,运用岭回归算法得出STIRPAT拓展模型中各个指标的弹性系数;最后,结合情景分析法,对区域碳排放量进行不同发展情景的预测。其中,预测模型采用天津市统计年鉴(2000—2021年)的数据,预测天津市未来的碳排放量、碳排放峰值和碳达峰时间,进而深入探索区域实现碳达峰的最优路径。研究结果以期为区域碳排放达峰的预测理论拓展和实践,以及绿色减排的可持续发展决策提供辅助,为实现区域碳达峰碳中和目标提供科学依据和路径参考。 展开更多
关键词 STIRPAT模型 碳排放达峰 预测模型 情景模拟法
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能源效率提升及干中学效果对我国碳达峰进程的影响——基于内生增长模型的碳脱钩弹性分析
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作者 高建刚 徐凯 《渭南师范学院学报》 2024年第11期52-63,共12页
我国推进碳达峰进程与发达国家面临的国情不同,必须坚持自主的科技减碳策略和科技减碳路径。通过构建内生增长模型,借用碳脱钩弹性的概念,分析能源科技(节能科技、能源投入替代科技、碳移除科技)对我国碳达峰进程的影响机理,并实证模拟... 我国推进碳达峰进程与发达国家面临的国情不同,必须坚持自主的科技减碳策略和科技减碳路径。通过构建内生增长模型,借用碳脱钩弹性的概念,分析能源科技(节能科技、能源投入替代科技、碳移除科技)对我国碳达峰进程的影响机理,并实证模拟了GDP基准增长、高速增长、低速增长三种情境下能源效率提升及干中学效果对我国碳达峰进程的影响。结果发现,能源效率年均增长率水平是影响碳达峰进程的重要因素,能效水平越高,碳达峰时间越提前实现,政府减碳行动带来的干中学效果有助于提前实现碳达峰。研究建议,重视战略规划导向作用,及早推动碳达峰进程;持续推动节能和能源效率提升;完善能源市场体制改革,有序推动能源结构清洁低碳转型;全面提升节能意识,促进节能减碳行动。 展开更多
关键词 能源效率 干中学 碳脱钩弹性 碳达峰 能源结构清洁化
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粤港澳大湾区能源消费碳达峰情景预测研究
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作者 徐维军 肖宇光 《城市观察》 2024年第3期40-67,159,160,共30页
本研究结合IPCC能源消费法和夜间灯光数据反演法,估算出2005-2021年粤港澳大湾区各区市的能源消费碳排放量,并基于拓展的STIRPAT预测模型,结合情景假设法和蒙特卡罗动态模拟法,模拟分析大湾区可能的碳达峰路径,进而提出针对性政策建议... 本研究结合IPCC能源消费法和夜间灯光数据反演法,估算出2005-2021年粤港澳大湾区各区市的能源消费碳排放量,并基于拓展的STIRPAT预测模型,结合情景假设法和蒙特卡罗动态模拟法,模拟分析大湾区可能的碳达峰路径,进而提出针对性政策建议。研究结果显示,大湾区2005-2021年碳排放量呈现波动上升态势,其中香港地区已于2014年实现碳达峰,澳门地区碳排放量占比较小;珠三角九市自2011年呈现下降态势,2016年后又波动增长。动态模拟发现大湾区在基准情景、低碳情景、极低碳情景、产业转型情景和全低速情景下能如期甚至提前实现2030年碳达峰目标,若采取更积极的碳减排和产业转型政策可以提前实现碳达峰。 展开更多
关键词 粤港澳大湾区 能源消费碳排放 碳达峰 绿色低碳 情景预测
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东北三省碳排放影响因素分析和趋势预测——基于STIRPAT模型和情景分析法
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作者 刘畅 《科技和产业》 2024年第21期348-358,共11页
东北三省是“双碳”目标下碳减排工作的重点区域。利用STIRPAT(可拓展的随机性环境影响评估)模型对2000—2021年东北三省各省的碳排放影响因素进行分析,并利用情景分析法预测截止到2040年以前、均衡情景下东北三省各省的碳排放趋势。模... 东北三省是“双碳”目标下碳减排工作的重点区域。利用STIRPAT(可拓展的随机性环境影响评估)模型对2000—2021年东北三省各省的碳排放影响因素进行分析,并利用情景分析法预测截止到2040年以前、均衡情景下东北三省各省的碳排放趋势。模型分析结果表明:各省只存在导致碳排放量增加的影响因素;能源消费总量、碳排放强度、人均GDP是各省的共同影响因素;各省的影响因素是不同的组合;各省影响因素的促进作用存在省份差异性。预测结果表明:碳排放量同期数值由高到低依次为辽宁省、黑龙江省、吉林省;各省的碳排放量曲线都呈现出倒“U”形并能够看出明显的峰值;黑龙江省和吉林省碳达峰的时间都为2012年,而辽宁省碳达峰的时间为2025年。针对分析和预测结果,提出能源、社会经济、区域协调3个方面的建议。 展开更多
关键词 STIRPAT(可拓展的随机性环境影响评估)模型 碳排放 碳达峰 情景分析法 趋势预测
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中国绿色物流研究的现状、热点及趋势——基于CiteSpace可视化工具知识图谱分析
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作者 王春娟 李晓婉 许璐瑶 《物流研究》 2024年第5期15-23,共9页
推动绿色物流高质量发展是促进我国高质量发展、实现碳达峰碳中和目标的必由之路。本文基于2000-2023年CNKI数据平台中收录的绿色物流相关文献,采用CiteSpace可视化工具基于作者合作图谱、研究机构合作图谱、关键词共现与聚类图谱等进... 推动绿色物流高质量发展是促进我国高质量发展、实现碳达峰碳中和目标的必由之路。本文基于2000-2023年CNKI数据平台中收录的绿色物流相关文献,采用CiteSpace可视化工具基于作者合作图谱、研究机构合作图谱、关键词共现与聚类图谱等进行系统性、可视化研究,从定量角度把握绿色物流研究的现状、热点和趋势,得出:①我国相关研究自2006年开始呈现高速发展趋势,高校及高校科研人员成为主要研究主体,并形成了一定的合作关系,但研究机构之间的联系尚不紧密,未能形成广泛合作的态势。②对策、循环经济、物流管理等已经成为当前研究热点。③碳中和、碳排放以及智慧物流等将是绿色物流未来研究热点。因此,建议将智慧化作为绿色物流发展的驱动力,从理论分析、实证检验、定量模拟三个层面加强碳达峰碳中和背景下绿色物流高质量发展研究,创新建构理论模型、科学设计评价体系、多层面提出对策建议。 展开更多
关键词 绿色物流 碳达峰碳中和 CITESPACE 共现分析 聚类分析
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“双碳”下多因素影响垃圾发电布局分析
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作者 田永静 屈攀 +2 位作者 翟宏广 孙甜甜 姜涛 《苏州科技大学学报(工程技术版)》 CAS 2024年第1期52-59,共8页
为了解我国垃圾焚烧发电产业发展趋势,对全国31个省、直辖市、自治区的垃圾焚烧处理现状和发展需求进行了数据分析。研究表明:2000年以来,垃圾焚烧产业迅速发展,垃圾焚烧量与垃圾焚烧厂数量均大幅提高;随着各省不断加快“双碳”行动,垃... 为了解我国垃圾焚烧发电产业发展趋势,对全国31个省、直辖市、自治区的垃圾焚烧处理现状和发展需求进行了数据分析。研究表明:2000年以来,垃圾焚烧产业迅速发展,垃圾焚烧量与垃圾焚烧厂数量均大幅提高;随着各省不断加快“双碳”行动,垃圾焚烧事业面临发展机遇,同时,不同地区应根据其自身情况制定政策;综合考虑各方面因素,长江沿线地区及东北部分地区为最适宜发展地区。本研究是基于我国垃圾焚烧发电产业的整体现状、各地区的经济发展、垃圾处置和控碳需求基础上的综合研究结果,可以为未来垃圾焚烧产业发展布局提供参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 碳达峰 碳中和 生活垃圾 焚烧产业 发展适宜区域
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湖南高速公路基础设施碳排放峰值支持向量回归预测模型
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作者 陈赟 文爱 《工程研究(跨学科视野中的工程)》 2024年第1期62-73,共12页
本文选取湖南省的人口数、人均GDP、基础设施固定资产投资、单位产值能耗比和单位能耗碳排放量作为高速公路基础设施的碳排放影响因素,选用湖南省2003—2021年相关数据并采用支持向量回归(SVR)机器学习法,建立了湖南省高速公路基础设施... 本文选取湖南省的人口数、人均GDP、基础设施固定资产投资、单位产值能耗比和单位能耗碳排放量作为高速公路基础设施的碳排放影响因素,选用湖南省2003—2021年相关数据并采用支持向量回归(SVR)机器学习法,建立了湖南省高速公路基础设施碳排放预测模型,预测在基准、低碳和超低碳情景下的碳排放数据。结果表明:训练样本交叉验证均方误差为0.007011,模型的预测值和真实值的拟合回归效果良好,训练集和测试集的相关系数分别为0.9869和0.9870,即模型具有良好的学习和推广能力。本文识别了碳排放的影响因素,预测了未来碳排放趋势,对交通基础设施碳减排行动具有一定的参考意义。 展开更多
关键词 支持向量回归(SVR) 碳排放预测模型 高速公路基础设施 碳达峰 影响因素
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The prospect of natural gas hydrate(NGH)under the vision of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China 被引量:1
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作者 Na Wei Ruiling Bai +2 位作者 Jinzhou Zhao Yao Zhang Jin Xue 《Petroleum》 CSCD 2021年第4期357-363,共7页
To achieve the goals of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality,China's energy system will continue to accelerate the transition to a clean and low-carbon one.As the cleanest fossil fuel,natural gas is... To achieve the goals of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality,China's energy system will continue to accelerate the transition to a clean and low-carbon one.As the cleanest fossil fuel,natural gas is regarded as an inevitable choice for China to build a clean,safe,efficient,and low-carbon energy system and fulfill the goal of“double carbon”.However,the domestic conventional natural gas supply remains rigid while the stimulation of unconventional natural gas is still limited.If we have a firm grip on the principal line of“understanding the ocean–developing resources–ensuring security”to realize the large-scale development of 85 trillion square meters of NGH in the South China Sea,then we could not only greatly reduce China‘s foreign dependence on natural gas,but also guarantee the safety of China‘s natural gas multi-path supply and safeguard the sovereignty of the South China Sea.Thus,the goal of Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Carbon Neutrality can be achieved in no time. 展开更多
关键词 Natural gas hydrate peak carbon dioxide emissions carbon neutrality Natural gas carbon emission reduction
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发展生态低碳农业:历史传承与中国式现代化追求 被引量:2
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作者 李凡略 何可 《华中农业大学学报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期1-8,共8页
从历史长河中汲取智慧,探索在中国式现代化的征途上,如何将传统农耕文明与生态低碳理念相结合,实现农业可持续发展。在中国式现代化背景下,生态低碳农业的发展应遵循四大原则:一是探寻粮食生产与生态低碳农业发展的平衡之道;二是追求共... 从历史长河中汲取智慧,探索在中国式现代化的征途上,如何将传统农耕文明与生态低碳理念相结合,实现农业可持续发展。在中国式现代化背景下,生态低碳农业的发展应遵循四大原则:一是探寻粮食生产与生态低碳农业发展的平衡之道;二是追求共同富裕与生态低碳农业发展的协同之道;三是赓续农耕文明和生态低碳农业发展的传承之道;四是谱写尊重自然与生态低碳农业发展的保护之道。未来应构筑生态低碳农业技术发展与应用协同机制,完善生态低碳农业的市场融合与价值实现途径,建立农耕技艺与生态低碳农业融合传承体系,形成自然资源与生态低碳农业协调发展框架。 展开更多
关键词 生态低碳农业 农耕文明 中国式现代化 碳达峰 碳中和
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