Stock Price Prediction Using Predictive Error Compensation Wavelet Neural Networks

:Machine Learning(ML)algorithms have been widely used for financial time series prediction and trading through bots.In this work,we propose a Predictive Error Compensated Wavelet Neural Network(PEC-WNN)ML model that improves the prediction of next day closing prices.In the proposed model we use multiple neural networks where the first one uses the closing stock prices from multiple-scale time-domain inputs.An additional network is used for error estimation to compensate and reduce the prediction error of the main network instead of using recurrence.The performance of the proposed model is evaluated using six different stock data samples in the New York stock exchange.The results have demonstrated significant improvement in forecasting accuracy in all cases when the second network is used in accordance with the first one by adding the outputs.The RMSE error is 33%improved when the proposed PEC-WNN model is used compared to the Long ShortTerm Memory(LSTM)model.Furthermore,through the analysis of training mechanisms,we found that using the updated training the performance of the proposed model is improved.The contribution of this study is the applicability of simultaneously different time frames as inputs.Cascading the predictive error compensation not only reduces the error rate but also helps in avoiding overfitting problems.

The Effects of Gross vs.Net Asset Value-Based Managers’Compensation on REIT Capital Structure and Performance:Evidence From the Italian REIT Market

Investors should always argue about management fees because of their impact on net performance that can be substantial.This especially for investments,like real estate,which require intensive management.However,different from traditional mutual funds that are usually related to the gross value of the assets under management,but similar to other financial industry sectors(e.g.hedge funds and private equity funds),REIT managers’compensation structure typically provides a basically fixed payment based alternatively on gross asset value(GAV)or net asset value(NAV).In addition,managers usually also gain a performance fee.The paper analyses how the two alternative compensation schemes influence REITs’investment decisions and capital structure and,consequently,REITs’share value and performance.The final issue addressed is whether—and under which conditions—one compensation scheme is superior to the other.Due to the(usual)market price discount on NAVs,both fee structures incentivise managers to leverage—even in a tax-free environment—in order to maximize the management fees.However,the leverage motivation is stronger for GAV-based than for NAV-based REITs,which are also expected to be more selective in investment decisions.Overall,considering initial fee percentage,GAV-based REITs are expected to execute higher management fees than NAV-based REITs due to the relevant leverage effect.Moreover,debt recourse produces different effects on share value if measured upon market price or net asset value.The empirical analysis focuses on public Italian REITs(2002-2012).The results seem to support the theoretical expectations.GAV-based REITs experience higher debt trends and levels than NAV-based REITs.At the same time,GAV-based REITs register lower real estate asset returns gross and net of management fees for both current and growth yields.Differences in the returns lead to permanent higher performances over total return indexes of NAV-based REITs compared to GAV-based REITs.

基于Price-Mueller模型的护士离职影响因素研究

[目的]利用Price-Mueller(2000)模型,通过了解、分析护士离职倾向的影响因素,提出加强护理队伍建设的改进措施及建议。[方法]依据Price-Mueller(2000)模型的基本理论,结合工作实际,建立护士离职倾向影响因素模型。选择942名护士采用问卷调查法验证护士离职倾向影响因素。[结果]构建的护士离职倾向影响因素模型信效度良好。临床护士调查结果显示,外部机会、工作压力、领导支持、薪酬待遇对护士离职倾向有显著影响,护士的受聘形式、职称、月收入、所在科室、职务、每周夜班频次以及身体状况对护士的离职倾向有影响。[结论]应重视护士职业规划,提供个人和专业发展机会;完善绩效考核机制,提高护士福利待遇;强化人文关怀,保障护士的身心健康。

基于生态补偿的南水北调后续工程水价研究

制定科学合理的跨流域调水工程水价是开展水源区生态补偿的重要途径之一。在现有水价的基础上,新增生态补偿作为水价的重要组成部分,运用机会成本法测算南水北调东线工程水源区生态补偿标准,并引入社会发展阶段系数和政府支付能力系数对其进行修正,构建计入生态补偿的南水北调后续工程水价定价模型。以南水北调东线一期工程胶东干线为例,得到2016、2020年水源区的理论生态补偿标准分别为116.121、199.992亿元,在现行价格基础上水价需分别提高0.93、4.51元/m^(3)。结果表明,生态补偿会耗费大量资金,只有当工程调水能力达到规划设计规模时,持续性调水才能逐步降低供水成本,否则水价会超出受水区的承受范围,工程效益也难以发挥。

考虑不确定性和定价补偿的源荷储联合调峰优化

针对大规模新能源并网带来的系统调峰和消纳难题,文中在分析源荷储调峰能力及其互补性的基础上,挖掘系统的调峰能力,促进新能源消纳。首先,考虑火电、独立储能和电动汽车的调峰定价及辅助服务补偿,分析调峰费用分摊与补偿机制,建立深度调峰模型;其次,考虑风光出力的不确定性与相关性,基于核密度估计和Frank Copula函数生成典型风光出力序列,并建立阶梯型需求响应模型以实现响应量的分级补偿,提高需求侧用户的响应积极性;最后,以总运行成本最小为目标,构建考虑不确定性和定价补偿的源荷储联合调峰优化模型,并以改进的IEEE 30节点系统为例进行分析。结果表明,所提模型能够挖掘源荷储三侧资源的灵活调峰潜力,提升系统调峰能力和新能源消纳水平。

辅助服务市场背景下灵活性资源调峰补偿价格决策方法

以辅助服务政策为导向,针对价格补偿不尽合理导致调峰参与主体积极性削弱的问题,提出灵活性资源调峰补偿价格决策方法。建立火电、可再生能源、储能、需求响应等灵活性资源的成本及价格补偿模型。在此基础上,考虑风、光出力的不确定性,构建双层补偿价格决策模型,外层以综合成本最低为目标,采用线性递减权重粒子群算法求得补偿价格决策结果并将其输入内层,内层以风、光弃电率最低为目标,对模型进行线性化处理后进行优化调度,求解综合成本并将其返回外层,通过双层交互求得调峰参与主体的补偿价格优化结果。算例分析验证了所提模型的有效性和合理性,结果表明,优化补偿价格能够激发各类灵活性资源的调峰积极性,保证调度的经济性,促进可再生能源消纳。

考虑服务供应能力和服务质量的众包物流服务定价策略

通过考虑订单需求量与服务供应能力的关系,分别构建基于服务供应能力以及基于服务供应能力和服务质量的众包物流服务定价模型,提出最优的服务价格与服务质量决策;在此基础上,比较不同定价模式的最优决策和企业利润,并分析众包配送员报酬率对最优决策和企业利润的影响。研究发现,众包物流企业在基于服务供应能力和服务质量的定价模型中能获得更高的利润;此外,不同条件下服务价格与报酬率成反比或随着报酬率的增加先上升再下降,而服务质量和众包物流企业利润都随着报酬率的增加先上升后下降。

考虑EV充放电意愿的园区综合能源系统双层优化调度

随着电动汽车(electric vehicle,EV)普及度的不断提高,工业园区内的EV用户日益增多,其充放电行为给园区综合能源系统(park integrated energy system,PIES)的规划运行带来极大挑战。文中提出考虑EV充放电意愿的PIES双层优化调度。首先,基于动态实时电价、电池荷电量、电池损耗补偿、额外参与激励等因素建立充放电意愿模型,在此基础上得到改进的EV充放电模型;然后,以PIES总成本最小和EV充电费用最小为目标建立双层优化调度模型,通过Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件将内层模型转化为外层模型的约束条件,从而快速稳定地实现单层模型的求解;最后,进行仿真求解,设置3种不同场景,对比所提模型与一般充放电意愿模型,验证了文中所提引入EV充放电意愿模型的PIES双层优化调度的有效性和可行性。

调节性水电容量补偿方案设计研究

为缓解目前单一制电价政策下调节性水电在电力市场中的不利地位,亟需配置合理的容量补偿机制。研究以调节性水电为对象,结合我国电力系统实际,采用固定容量价格机制下的未补偿成本法作为容量补偿电价核定方法,建立了一套兼具实用性和可操作性的水电容量补偿方案,并对长江流域某地6座新投调节性水电站进行测算,对比验证了方案的实施效果。结果表明,设计的补偿方案意义明确,适应性强,测算结果合理。

计及运行规划收益补偿的电能量市场储能报量报价策略

大量低运行成本的新能源电源参与电能量市场降低了市场电价,造成储能在电能量市场中的获利降低,甚至难以回收其固定投资成本。针对这一问题,充分考虑储能参与系统运行所能产生的运行收益和规划收益,引入运行收益和规划收益补偿系数,并建立储能参与系统运行的补偿机制;增大储能的报价区间,并建立储能参与电能量市场报量报价策略的双层优化模型;在改进的10机39节点系统上验证所提方法的有效性,讨论运行/规划收益补偿和辅助服务对储能收益的影响、储能参与市场对出清价格的影响等问题。

涉农贷款如何实现可持续供给——基于利率定价和补偿测算的四维分析框架

农村金融的可持续发展离不开涉农贷款的供给。但涉农贷款具有低收益和高风险并存的特征,防范和化解风险的同时又要激励银行持续支农,因而需要建立完善的风险补偿机制。本文立足于农村金融的供给侧,通过拓展利率定价中的价格领导模型,厘定可识别风险的贷款利率,提出了以此利率为基础的补偿数额测算方法,构建银行“内部收益补偿-外部收益补偿”“内部损失补偿-外部损失补偿”的四维量化分析框架,并以W农村商业银行为例做了具体测算。研究发现:(1)当前风险补偿以银行内部补偿为主,外部补偿力度不足;(2)银行外部补偿过少和内部补偿过多,会加剧其脱农离农倾向和贷款行业的持续分化;(3)相比损失补偿,银行对涉农贷款的收益补偿需求更多。据此,应以银行主要承担损失补偿和政府加大外部收益补偿为思路,进一步优化涉农贷款的补偿机制。

现货市场中实现保供目标的容量补偿定价方法

为解决电力现货市场环境下的电力系统装机充裕度不足的问题,提出一种实现电力系统保供目标的容量补偿定价方法。首先,根据保供要求的电力系统可靠性标准,构建基于内部收益率评估的机组投资、退役决策模型;其次,通过“机组电能市场收入评估、机组容量补偿收入评估、投资退役决策”的迭代,确定目标年份市场中分类型机组的预期装机;然后,计算目标年份的可靠性指标,根据可靠性指标与标准的偏差调整容量补偿价格,使得发电充裕度能够满足目标年份系统的可靠性标准。算例结果表明,所提定价方法能够在保证电力系统可靠性的基础上,降低电力用户的综合购电成本。

Carbon compensation and carbon neutrality:Regional variations based on net carbon transfer of trade in China

Inter-provincial carbon compensation is an important means for a country to realize regional environmental protection and achieve coordinated regional development and realize the carbon neutral goal.It is easier to realize inter-provincial carbon compensation compared with the national level.Based on the multi-regional input-output model and the input-output data of 30 provinces in China,this study measured the carbon transfer in,carbon transfer out and net carbon transfer of each province,and based on the undesirable slacks-based measurement model under the common frontier,the provinces were given the shadow price of carbon emission in line with the situation of the local economic development,resource endowment,and industrial structure,and based on which,the amount of carbon compensation of each province was measured.The results show that:China's provinces and regions have a larger share of trade-implied carbon emissions;the net carbon transfer in areas mainly concentrated in the traditional energy provinces,which provide industrial products for other regions and undertake the transfer of carbon emissions,and become the main carbon compensation recipient areas;the net carbon transfer out is mainly concentrated in the economically developed and densely populated areas such as Beijing-Tianjin region and the eastern and southern coasts,which satisfy the end-consumption by purchasing a large number of industrial products and generate a large amount of carbon emissions.Transfer out;becoming the main carbon offset payment area.Based on the results of this study,it is proposed to improve the national provincial carbon offset mechanism and implement a differentiated and synergistic carbon emission reduction cooperation approach.The research program of this study can provide a reference for the development of inter-regional carbon offset programs.

Evaluate the Value of Houses around the Garbage Transfer Station Based on CVM

In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s economy,a large number of people have flocked to the cities,which also brings more residential waste.The increased waste overloads transfer stations located near residential areas,and the continuous noise and odour affect the daily lives of nearby residents.In addition,the neighbourhood avoidance facilities represented by the waste transfer stations also reduce the value of the surrounding residents’houses.Therefore,using the conditional value method and the Tobit and Double Hurder econometric models,this article investigates the implicit value of the Fuli Resort neighbourhood under the influence of the waste transfer station through a questionnaire survey on the willingness of the residents to accept the compensation,which can be regarded as the“aversion value”of the neighbourhood due to the aversion to the waste transfer station and analyses the impact of the aversion value of the neighbourhood.aversion value and analyses the impact on residents’willingness to accept compensation.The study found that the residents’willingness to accept compensation near the waste transfer station is 511.94 RMB/person/month,and the implicit value of the Fuli Resort neighbourhood under the influence of the waste transfer station in Qinhuai District,Nanjing,Jiangsu Province,China,is 147,950 RMB.The study found that residents are most interested in having the government rectify the waste transfer station and set sanitary standards and work norms.

响应调控需求的辅助服务市场激励电价与效益分析方法设计

“双碳”目标下的新型电力系统需要更多可调度的弹性资源维护电网供需平衡。由此,首先结合辅助服务市场提出由代理机构代理电力用户间接参与省级辅助服务市场,并耦合电网平衡需求设计弹性电价。其次,结合分时电价提出跟踪供需关系的补偿结算电价,最后,设计全天时段的电力用户参与省级辅助服务市场交易的效益模型。通过对所提方法和模型的量化验证与分析,得出所设计的电价模型可以跟踪电网需求变化,调整实际结算电价,为负荷侧电力用户参与交易提供市场激励。

合同无效后恢复原状请求权之性质

返还财产与折价补偿作为恢复原状的具体方式,其性质在理论上多有争议。返还财产请求权不论是采原物返还请求权说抑或不当得利请求权说还是请求权竞合说均有无法解释的缺陷,合同无效后财产返还制度与物权法、不当得利法所要实现的价值追求并不一致。折价补偿作为财产返还的补充形式,亦是如此。返还财产请求权以及折价补偿请求权应均是独立的请求权基础,均属于类合同请求权。

关于数据中心无功补偿设置的探讨

随着数据中心建设规模越来越大,用电能耗增加,大型数据中心常自备变电站,一般采用220kV和110kV电压等级供电,再通过自备电站的10kV馈线送至各数据楼。本文通过重点分析电缆进线方式下无功补偿装置的设置,从而降低数据中心建设投资和运行成本。

西藏居民区清洁能源供暖方案设计研究

利用西藏丰富的太阳能资源建设清洁能源供暖系统,以解决高原居民采暖需求问题。研究提出了分布式太阳能热水供暖和电采暖配套光储系统两种技术方案。方案1平时运行时除供暖水泵外,没有其他耗电设备,年运行费用低;方案2电费采用“收支两条线”的方式,居民用电向电网公司支付电费、光伏发电取得电费收入。通过技术经济性分析,推荐方案1解决居民供暖,可供类似工程项目设计参考。

架空线路无功功率补偿

专线供电的110 kV及以上电压等级的大工业电力用户无法及时投产或停产后,电力用户变电站有功功率很低,但外部架空线路产生的无功功率相对较大,导致电力用户电能计量功率因数过低,对电网供电质量产生不良影响,同时在两部制电价计费方式下,电力用户会产生大量力调电费,增加用电成本支出。根据两部制电价计费规则,调整主变压器运行策略,同时调整SVG(静止无功发生器)无功功率补方式,可以解决上述问题。

牛栏江—滇池补水工程生态效益评估

云南省牛栏江—滇池补水工程是国务院172项节水供水重大水利工程之一,也是滇池水污染综合治理的关键性措施之一,工程运行9年多以来,已累计向昆明调水46.06×108m3,其中向滇池补水42.15×108 m3、城市应急供水3.91×108 m3,发挥了巨大的生态效益。为合理评估工程产生的生态效益,从定性分析与定量计算两方面来评估工程生态效益,定量分析中采用了生态补偿法、等效替代法、生态水价法3种方法将生态效益量化为资金价值,经综合分析,推荐采用等效替代法计算工程生态效益。