Systemic immune-inflammation index combined with pediatric appendicitis score in assessing the severity and prognosis for paediatric appendicitis

BACKGROUND Pediatric appendicitis is a common cause of abdominal pain in children and is recognized as a significant surgical emergency.A prompt and accurate diagnosis is essential to prevent complications such as perforation and peritonitis.AIM To investigate the predictive value of the systemic immune-inflammation index(SII)combined with the pediatric appendicitis score(PAS)for the assessment of disease severity and surgical outcomes in children aged 5 years and older with appendicitis.METHODS Clinical data of 104 children diagnosed with acute appendicitis were analyzed.The participants were categorized into the acute appendicitis group and chronic appendicitis group based on disease presentation and further stratified into the good prognosis group and poor prognosis group based on prognosis.The SII and PAS were measured,and a joint model using the combined SII and PAS was constructed to predict disease severity and surgical outcomes.RESULTS Significant differences were observed in the SII and PAS parameters between the acute appendicitis group and chronic appendicitis group.Correlation analysis showed associations among the SII,PAS,and disease severity,with the combined SII and PAS model demonstrating significant predictive value for assessing disease severity[aera under the curve(AUC)=0.914]and predicting surgical outcomes(AUC=0.857)in children aged 5 years and older with appendicitis.CONCLUSION The study findings support the potential of integrating the SII with the PAS for assessing disease severity and predicting surgical outcomes in pediatric appendicitis,indicating the clinical utility of the combined SII and PAS model in guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing surgical management strategies for pediatric patients with appendicitis.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients:A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China

Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has become a worldwide pandemic.Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate,motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients.Here,we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital,Wuhan,China(development cohort)and externally validated with data from two other centers:141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital,Wuhan,China(validation cohort 1)and 432 inpatients from The Third People’s Hospital of Shenzhen,Shenzhen,China(validation cohort 2).The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death.The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90%accuracy across all cohorts.Moreover,the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low,intermediate,or high risk,with an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.9551.In summary,a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2);it has also been validated in independent cohorts.

Association between the Khorana risk score and all-cause mortality in Japanese patients with gastric and colorectal cancer: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND The Khorana risk score(KRS)has poor predictive value for cancer-associated thrombosis in a single tumor type but is associated with early all-cause mortality from cancer.Evidence for the association between KRS and all-cause mortality in Japanese patients with gastric and colorectal cancer is limited.AIM To investigate whether KRS was independently related to all-cause mortality in Japanese patients with gastric and colorectal cancer after adjusting for other covariates and to shed light on its temporal validity.METHODS Data from Dryad database were used in this study.Patients in the Gastroen-terology Department of Sapporo General Hospital,Sapporo,Japan,were enrolled.The starting and ending dates of the enrollment were January 1,2008 and January 5,2015,respectively.The cutoff date for follow-up was May 31,2016.The inde-pendent and dependent(target)variables were the baseline measured using the KRS and final all-cause mortality,respectively.The KRS was categorized into three groups:Low-risk group(=0 score),intermediate-risk group(1-2 score),and high-risk group(≥3 score).RESULTS Men and patients with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status(ECOG PS)≥2 displayed a higher 2-year risk of death than women and those with ECOG PS 0-1 in the intermediate/high risk group for KRS.The higher the score,the higher the risk of early death;however,the relevance of this independent prediction decreased with longer survival.The overall survival of each patient was recorded via real-world follow-up and retrospective observations,and this study yielded the overall relationship between KRS and all-cause mortality.CONCLUSION The prechemotherapy baseline of KRS was independently associated with all-cause mortality within 2 years;however,this independent predictive relationship weakened as survival time increased.

Untangling the difficult interplay between ischemic and hemorrhagic risk:The role of risk scores

BACKGROUND Bleedings are an independent risk factor for subsequent mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes(ACS)and in those undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.This represents a hazard equivalent to or greater than that for recurrent ACS.Dual antiplatelet therapy(DAPT)represents the cornerstone in the secondary prevention of thrombotic events,but the benefit of such therapy is counteracted by the increased hemorrhagic complications.Therefore,an early and individualized patient risk stratification can help to identify high-risk patients who could benefit the most from intensive medical therapies while minimizing unnecessary treatment complications in low-risk patients.AIM To review existing literature and gain better understanding of the role of ischemic and hemorrhagic risk scores in patients with ischemic heart disease(IHD).METHODS We used a combination of terms potentially used in literature describing the most common ischemic and hemorrhagic risk scores to search in PubMed as well as references of full-length articles.RESULTS In this review we briefly describe the most important ischemic and bleeding scores that can be adopted in patients with IHD,focusing on GRACE,CHA2DS2-Vasc,PARIS CTE,DAPT,CRUSADE,ACUITY,HAS-BLED,PARIS MB and PRECISE-DAPT score.In the second part of this review,we try to define a possible approach to the IHD patient,using the most suitable scores to stratify patient risk and decide the most appropriate patient treatment.CONCLUSION It becomes evident that risk scores by themselves can’t be the solution to balance the ischemic/bleeding risk of an IHD patient.Instead,some risk factors that are commonly associated with an elevated risk profile and that are already included in risk scores should be the focus of the clinician while he/she is taking care of a patient affected by IHD.

Predictive value of C-reactive protein and the Pediatric Risk of Mortality Ⅲ Score for occurrence of postoperative ventilator-associated pneumonia in pediatric patients with congenital heart disease

Importance:Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is one of the most common complications after cardiac surgery in children with congenital heart disease (CHD).Early prediction of the incidence of VAP is important for clinical prevention and treatment.Objective:To determine the value of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and the Pediatric Risk of Mortality Ⅲ (PRISM Ⅲ) score in predicting the risk of postoperative VAP in pediatric patients with CHD.Methods:We performed a retrospective review of clinical data of 481 pediatric patients with CHD who were admitted to our pediatric intensive care unit.These patients received mechanical ventilation for 48 hours or longer after corrective Surgery.On the basis of their clinical manifestations and laboratory results,patients were separated into two groups of those with VAP and those without VAP.CRP levels were measured and PRISM Ⅲ scores were collected within 12 hours of admission to the pediatric intensive care unit.The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the association of CRP levels and the PRISM score with the occurrence of postoperative VAP.A linear regression model was constructed to obtain a joint function and receiver operating curves were used to assess the predictive value.Results:CRP levels and the PRISM Ⅲ score in the VAP group were significantly higher than those in the non-VAP group (P < 0.05).Receiver operating curves suggested that using CRP + the PRISM Ⅲ score to predict the incidence of VAP after congenial heart surgery was more accurate than using either of them alone (CRP + the PRISM Ⅲ score:sensitivity:53.2%,specificity:85.7%).When CRP + the PRISM Ⅲ score was greater than 45.460,patients were more likely to have VAP.Interpretation:Although using CRP levels plus the PRISM Ⅲ score to predict the incidence of VAP after congenial heart surgery is more accurate than using either of them alone,its predictive value is still limited.

Novel CABIN score outperforms other prognostic models in predicting in-hospital mortality after salvage transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunting

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is now established as the salvage procedure of choice in patients who have uncontrolled or severe recurrent variceal bleeding despite optimal medical and endoscopic treatment.AIM To analysis compared the performance of eight risk scores to predict in-hospital mortality after salvage TIPS(sTIPS)placement in patients with uncontrolled variceal bleeding after failed medical treatment and endoscopic intervention.METHODS Baseline risk scores for the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation(APACHE)II,Bonn TIPS early mortality(BOTEM),Child-Pugh,Emory,FIPS,model for end-stage liver disease(MELD),MELD-Na,and a novel 5 category CABIN score incorporating Creatinine,Albumin,Bilirubin,INR and Na,were calculated before sTIPS.Concordance(C)statistics for predictive accuracy of inhospital mortality of the eight scores were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC)analysis.RESULTS Thirty-four patients(29 men,5 women),median age 52 years(range 31-80)received sTIPS for uncontrolled(11)or refractory(23)bleeding between August 1991 and November 2020.Salvage TIPS controlled bleeding in 32(94%)patients with recurrence in one.Ten(29%)patients died in hospital.All scoring systems had a significant association with in-hospital mortality(P<0.05)on multivariate analysis.Based on in-hospital survival AUROC,the CABIN(0.967),APACHE II(0.948)and Emory(0.942)scores had the best capability predicting mortality compared to FIPS(0.892),BOTEM(0.877),MELD Na(0.865),Child-Pugh(0.802)and MELD(0.792).CONCLUSION The novel CABIN score had the best prediction capability with statistical superiority over seven other risk scores.Despite sTIPS,hospital mortality remains high and can be predicted by CABIN category B or C or CABIN scores>10.Survival was 100%in CABIN A patients while mortality was 75%for CABIN B,87.5%for CABIN C,and 83%for CABIN scores>10.

Effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening integrating non-genetic and genetic risk: a prospective study based on UK Biobank data

Objective: Few studies have evaluated the benefits of colorectal cancer(CRC) screening integrating both non-genetic and genetic risk factors. Here, we aimed to integrate an existing non-genetic risk model(QCancer-10) and a 139-variant polygenic risk score to evaluate the effectiveness of screening on CRC incidence and mortality.Methods: We applied the integrated model to calculate 10-year CRC risk for 430,908 participants in the UK Biobank, and divided the participants into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. We calculated the screening-associated hazard ratios(HRs) and absolute risk reductions(ARRs) for CRC incidence and mortality according to risk stratification.Results: During a median follow-up of 11.03 years and 12.60 years, we observed 5,158 CRC cases and 1,487 CRC deaths, respectively. CRC incidence and mortality were significantly lower among screened than non-screened participants in both the intermediateand high-risk groups [incidence: HR: 0.87, 95% confidence interval(CI): 0.81±0.94;0.81, 0.73±0.90;mortality: 0.75, 0.64±0.87;0.70, 0.58±0.85], which composed approximately 60% of the study population. The ARRs(95% CI) were 0.17(0.11±0.24) and 0.43(0.24±0.61), respectively, for CRC incidence, and 0.08(0.05±0.11) and 0.24(0.15±0.33), respectively, for mortality. Screening did not significantly reduce the relative or absolute risk of CRC incidence and mortality in the low-risk group. Further analysis revealed that screening was most effective for men and individuals with distal CRC among the intermediate to high-risk groups.Conclusions: After integrating both genetic and non-genetic factors, our findings provided priority evidence of risk-stratified CRC screening and valuable insights for the rational allocation of health resources.

Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 in Predicting Hospital Mortality in Emergency Intensive Care Unit

Background： Since the 1980s, severity of illness scoring systems has gained increasing popularity in Intensive Care Units （ICUs）. Physicians used them for predicting mortality and assessing illness severity in clinical trials. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 （SAPS 3） and its customized equation for Australasia （Australasia SAPS 3, SAPS 3 [AUS]） in predicting clinical prognosis and hospital mortality in emergency ICU （EICU）. Methods： A retrospective analysis of the EICU including 463 patients was conducted between January 2013 and December 2015 in the EICU of Peking University Third Hospital. The worst physiological data of enrolled patients were collected within 24 h after admission to calculate SAPS 3 score and predicted mortality by regression equation. Discrimination between survivals and deaths was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve （AUC）. Calibration was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of fit test through calculating the ratio of observed-to-expected numbers of deaths which is known as the standardized mortality ratio （SMR）. Results： A total of 463 patients were enrolled in the study, and the observed hospital mortality was 26.1% （121/463）. The patients enrolled were divided into survivors and nonsurvivors. Age, SAPS 3 score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation Score 11 （APACHE 11）, and predicted mortality were significantly higher in nonsurvivors than survivors （P 〈 0.05 or P 〈 0.01 ）. The AUC （95% confidence intervals [C/s]） for SAPS 3 score was 0.836 （0.796-0.876）. The maximum of Youden＇s index, cutoff, sensitivity, and specificity of SAPS 3 score were 0.526%, 70.5 points, 66.9%, and 85.7%, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for SAPS 3 demonstrated a Chi-square test score of 10.25, P = 0.33, SMR （95% CI） = 0.63 （0.52 0.76）. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of fit test tbr SAPS 3 （AUS） demonstrated a Chi-square test score of 9.55, P 0.38, SMR （95% CI） 0.68 （0.57-0.81）. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted for biochemical variables that were probably correlated to prognosis. Eventually, blood urea nitrogen （BUN）, albumin,lactate and free triiodothyronine （FT3） were selected as independent risk factors for predicting prognosis. Conclusions： The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE 11 in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

Prognostic value of risk scoring systems for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding

BACKGROUND Acute variceal bleeding is one of the deadliest complications of cirrhosis,with a high risk of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality.Some risk scoring systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding have been developed.However,for cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding,data regarding the predictive value of these prognostic scores in predicting in-hospital outcomes are limited and controversial.AIM To validate and compare the overall performance of selected prognostic scoring systems for predicting in-hospital outcomes in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding.METHODS From March 2017 to June 2019,cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding were retrospectively enrolled at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University.The clinical Rockall score(CRS),AIMS65 score(AIMS65),Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS),modified GBS(mGBS),Canada-United Kingdom-Australia score(CANUKA),Child-Turcotte-Pugh score(CTP),model for endstage liver disease(MELD)and MELD-Na were calculated.The overall performance of these prognostic scoring systems was evaluated.RESULTS A total of 330 cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding were enrolled;the rates of in-hospital rebleeding and mortality were 20.3%and 10.6%,respectively.For inhospital rebleeding,the discriminative ability of the CTP and CRS were clinically acceptable,with area under the receiver operating characteristic curves(AUROCs)of 0.717(0.648-0.787)and 0.716(0.638-0.793),respectively.The other tested scoring systems had poor discriminative ability(AUROCs<0.7).For inhospital mortality,the CRS,CTP,AIMS65,MELD-Na and MELD showed excellent discriminative ability(AUROCs>0.8).The AUROCs of the mGBS,CANUKA and GBS were relatively small,but clinically acceptable(AUROCs>0.7).Furthermore,the calibration of all scoring systems was good for either inhospital rebleeding or death.CONCLUSION For cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding,in-hospital rebleeding and mortality rates remain high.The CTP and CRS can be used clinically to predict in-hospital rebleeding.The performances of the CRS,CTP,AIMS65,MELD-Na and MELD are excellent at predicting in-hospital mortality.

Development and validation of a novel model to predict liver-related mortality in patients with idiosyncratic drug-induced liver injury

Background: Early identification of patients with high mortality risk is critical for optimizing the clinical management of drug-induced liver injury(DILI). We aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model to predict death within 6 months in DILI patients. Methods: This multicenter study retrospectively reviewed the medical records of DILI patients admitted to three hospitals. A DILI mortality predictive score was developed using multivariate logistic regression and was validated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC). A high-mortality-risk subgroup was identified according to the score. Results: Three independent DILI cohorts, including one derivation cohort( n = 741) and two validation cohorts( n = 650, n = 617) were recruited. The DILI mortality predictive(DMP) score was calculated using parameters at disease onset as follows: 1.913 × international normalized ratio + 0.060 × total bilirubin(mg/d L) + 0.439 × aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase – 1.579 × albumin(g/d L) –0.006 × platelet count(109/L) + 9.662. The predictive performance for 6-month mortality of DMP score was desirable, with an AUC of 0.941(95% CI: 0.922-0.957), 0.931(0.908-0.949) and 0.960(0.942-0.974) in the derivation, validation cohorts 1 and 2, respectively. DILI patients with a DMP score ≥ 8.5 were stratified into high-risk group, whose mortality rates were 23-, 36-, and 45-fold higher than those of other patients in the three cohorts. Conclusions: The novel model based on common laboratory findings can accurately predict mortality within 6 months in DILI patients, which should serve as an effective guidance for management of DILI in clinical practice.

A novel comprehensive ALPPS preoperative risk assessment (CAPRA) score is beneficial in creating a treatment strategy for advanced liver malignancy

Curability and safety are essential for patients with advanced liver malignancy undergoing extended liver resection.If the future liver remnant(FLR)volume is insufficient,portal embolization with or without hepatic arterial or venous embolization or a conventional two-stage hepatectomy(TSH)can be performed(1,2).Associating liver partition and portal vein ligation for staged hepatectomy(ALPPS)was introduced in 2007.

Applicability and prognostic effect of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score in adults hospitalized for infective endocarditis

Background Early identification of patients at risk for adverse outcomes is imperative to improve the prognosis of infective endocarditis(IE).Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(SOFA)score has been reported as an effective assessment tool for predicting the adverse outcomes of infectious diseases,but its applicability and predictive value in IE patients was still poorly known.Methods From 2009 to 2020,a total of 1354 patients diagnosed with definite IE according to the modified Duke criteria were included.SOFA score was calculated by the laboratory and clinical parameters within 24 hours of diagnosis.Discrimination and calibration of SOFA for inhospital mortality were analyzed.Results Patients were divided into two groups according to the optimal cutoff value of SOFA score=2 in the present cohort,which were determined by the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)analysis:High SOFA(≥2,n=496)group and low SOFA group(<2,n=858).SOFA score showed good discrimination and calibration for in-hospital mortality[area under the curve(AUC):0.750,P<0.001;HosmerLemeshow P=0.210].ROC curve showed that SOFA≥2 had a sensitivity of 73.2%and specificity of 66.2%for predicting in-hospital death.Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that SOFA score≥2 was associated with higher 6-month mortality(Log-rank:96.3,P<0.001).Conclusions SOFA score is a practical risk assessment tool for patients admitted to hospital for IE and SOFA scores≥2 is independently associated with in-hospital mortality.

A New Coronavirus Estimation Global Score for Predicting Mortality During Hospitalization in Patients with COVID-19

Objective:Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)exists as a pandemic.Mortality during hospitalization is multifactorial,and there is urgent need for a risk stratification model to predict in-hospital death among COVID-19 patients.Here we aimed to construct a risk score system for early identification of COVID-19 patients at high probability of dying during in-hospital treatment.Methods:In this retrospective analysis,a total of 821 confirmed COVID-19 patients from 3 centers were assigned to developmental(n=411,between January 14,2020 and February 11,2020)and validation(n=410,between February 14,2020 and March 13,2020)groups.Based on demographic,symptomatic,and laboratory variables,a new Coronavirus estimation global(CORE-G)score for prediction of in-hospital death was established from the developmental group,and its performance was then evaluated in the validation group.Results:The CORE-G score consisted of 18 variables(5 demographics,2 symptoms,and 11 laboratory measurements)with a sum of 69.5 points.Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the model performed well in the developmental group(H=3.210,P=0.880),and it was well validated in the validation group(H=6.948,P=0.542).The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.955 in the developmental group(sensitivity,94.1%;specificity,83.4%)and 0.937 in the validation group(sensitivity,87.2%;specificity,84.2%).The mortality rate was not significantly different between the developmental(n=85,20.7%)and validation(n=94,22.9%,P=0.608)groups.Conclusions:The CORE-G score provides an estimate of the risk of in-hospital death.This is the first step toward the clinical use of the CORE-G score for predicting outcome in COVID-19 patients.

EuroSCORE模型对心瓣膜手术患者死亡风险的预测

目的评价欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统(European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation,EuroSCORE)模型预测行心脏瓣膜手术患者在院死亡率的准确性。方法收集1998年1月至2008年12月于第二军医大学长海医院因心脏瓣膜疾病行外科治疗4 155例患者的临床资料,其中男1 955例,女2 200例;年龄45.90±13.64岁。先按additive及logistic EuroSCORE两种方法评分,将患者分为低风险(n=981)、中风险(n=2 492)、高风险(n=682)3个亚组,比较全组及各亚组患者的实际与预测死亡率。模型预测的校准度用Hosmer-Lemeshow卡方检验,预测的鉴别度采用受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线下面积检验。结果 4 155例患者在院死亡205例,实际在院死亡率4.93%;additive EuroSCORE预测死亡率为3.80%,而logisticEuroSCORE为3.30%;提示两种评分方法均低估了实际在院死亡率(χ2=11.13,44.34,P<0.05)。additiveEuroSCORE对高风险亚组在院死亡预测校准度较高(χ2=3.61,P=0.31),但对低风险亚组(χ2=0.00,P<0.01)及中风险亚组(χ2=14.72,P<0.01)较低;而logistic EuroSCORE对低风险亚组(χ2=1.66,P=0.88)及高风险亚组(χ2=11.71,P=0.11)在院死亡预测准确性均较高,却低估了中风险亚组(χ2=17.48,P<0.01)的实际在院死亡率。两种评分方法对全组患者在院死亡预测的鉴别度均较差(ROC曲线下面积分别为0.676和0.677)。结论 EuroSCORE模型对本中心心瓣膜手术患者死亡风险预测的准确性较差,不适合本中心心瓣膜手术的风险预测,在今后的临床实践中应慎重使用。

APACHEⅡ和SOFA评分对结肠穿孔手术风险的评估

目的:评价联合应用APACHEⅡ和SOFA评分系统对结肠穿孔手术风险的预警作用。方法:回顾分析61例结肠穿孔病例,并比较其临床结果与评分系统的关系。结果:①本组一期手术病例平均APACHEⅡ评分(14.4±1.7)、平均SOFA评分(7.8±1.2)分别低于二期手术病例(19.5±2.6和9.3±1.9)(P<0.05);②APACHEⅡ评分≥18病例的死亡率(87.5%)显著高于评分<18者(29.7%)(P<0.01),尤其是>21病例的死亡率高达90.9%(20/22);③SOFA评分≥9病例的死亡率(80.0%)显著高于评分<9者(27.8%)(P<0.01),且19例SOFA评分≥11者全部死亡;④APACHEⅡ评分≥18且SOFA评分≥9病例的死亡率(94.7%)显著高于APACHEⅡ评分<18且SOFA评分<9者(68.6%)(P<0.01),APACHEⅡ评分>19且SOFA评分>11的病例全部死亡(17/17)。结论:APACHEⅡ和SOFA评分可较准确地评估结肠穿孔病人的手术风险和预后。

EuroSCORE对维吾尔族与汉族患者心脏瓣膜手术死亡风险的预测价值

目的评价欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统(European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation,EuroSCORE)预测实施心脏瓣膜手术的维吾尔族与汉族患者在院死亡率的准确性。方法分析2012年9月至2013年12月于新疆医科大学第一附属医院因心脏瓣膜疾病行外科治疗的361例患者的临床资料,维吾尔族患者209例,汉族患者152例。先按additive及logisticEuroSCORE两种方法评分,将患者分为低风险、中风险、高风险3个亚组,比较全组及各亚组患者的实际与预测死亡率。模型预测的校准度采用拟合优度检验,预测的鉴别度采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积检验。结果全组患者实际在院死亡率为8.03%,维吾尔族患者6.70%,汉族患者9.87%。additiveEuroSCORE与logisticEuroSCORE预测维吾尔族患者在院死亡率分别为4.03%和3.37%,汉族患者为4.43%和3.77%,均低于实际死亡率(P<0.01)。全组患者additiveEuroSCORE与logisticEuroSCORE的曲线下面积分别为0.606和0.598,汉族患者分别为0.574和0.553,维吾尔族患者分别为0.609和0.610。结论 EuroSCORE模型对本地区维吾尔族与汉族瓣膜病患者的死亡风险预测准确性较差,不适合心脏瓣膜手术的风险预测,临床应用时需谨慎考虑。

A prospective analysis of risk factors for pediatric burn mortality at a tertiary burn center in North India

Background:None of the available mortality predicting models in pediatric burns precisely predicts outcomes in every population. Mortality rates as well as their risk factors vary with regions and among different centers within the regions. The aim of this study was to identify socio-demographic and clinical risk factors for mortality in pediatric burns in an effort to decrease the mortality in these patients. Methods:A prospective analytical study was conducted in patients up to the age of 18 years admitted for burn injuries in a tertiary care burn center in India from January to December 2014. Clinical and demographic data was col ected through questionnaire-interview and patient fol ow-up during their stay in the hospital. Univariate and multivariate firth logistic regression was used to identify various risk factors for mortality in pediatric burns. Results:A total of 475 patients were admitted during the study period. Overal mortality was 31.3%(n=149) in this study. Mean age of the patients who died was 8.68 years. Of the 149 deaths, 74 were males and 75 were females (male to female ratio=0.98). Mean total body surface area (TBSA) involved of the patients who expired was 62%. Inhalational injury was seen in 15.5%(n=74) of pediatric burn admissions. Mortality was significantly higher (74.3%) in patients with inhalation injury. Mortality was highest in patients with isolates of Acinetobacter + Klebsiella (58.3%), followed by Pseudomonas + Klebsiella (53.3%), Acinetobacter (31.5%), and Pseudomonas (26.3%) (p < 0.0005). Factors found to be significant on univariate firth analysis were older age, female gender, suicidal burns, higher TBSA, presence of inhalation injury, increased depth of burn, and positive microbial cultures. On multivariate analysis, higher TBSA was identified as an independent risk factor for mortality. The adjusted odds ratios for TBSA involvement was 21.706 (25.1-50%), 136.195 (50.1-75%), and 1019.436 (75.1-100%), respectively. Conclusion: TBSA is the most important factor predicting mortality in pediatric burns. The higher the TBSA, the higher is the risk of mortality. Other significant risk factors for mortality are female gender, deeper burns, positive wound cultures, and inhalation injury. Risk of mortality was significantly lower in children who belonged to urban areas, nuclear family, who sustained burn injury in the last quarter of the year, and who stayed in the hospital for longer period.

改良qSOFA评分对重度烧伤患者预后的预测价值

目的分析可改善重度烧伤患者快速序贯器官衰竭评估(qSOFA)评分系统的独立危险因素并探讨改良qSOFA评分对重度烧伤患者预后的预测价值.方法回顾分析烧伤科救治的重度烧伤患者,根据临床结局分为死亡组和康复组,并比较入院时各种预测评分的预测值.结果入选481例患者,影响病死率的独立危险因素为烧伤面积、乳酸和白蛋白,改良qSOFA评分结合了qSOFA评分、乳酸和白蛋白,其预测病死率的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.866(95%CI:0.808~0.924),最佳临界点为3分,其敏感度为77.8%,特异度为82.0%,其诊断性能优于qSOFA评分,但与改良Baux评分差异无统计学意义(P>0.05).结论改良qSOFA评分能预测重度烧伤患者的预后,有一定的临床意义.

Predicting mortality, hospital length of stay and need for surgery in pediatric trauma patients

Purpose： Pediatric trauma is one of the major health problems around the world which threats the life of children. The survival of injured children depends upon appropriate care, accurate triage and effective emergent surgery. The objective of this study was to determine the predictive values of injury severity score （ISS）, new injury severity score （NISS） and revised trauma score （RTS） on children＇s mortality, hospitalization and need for surgery. Methods： In this study, records of trauma patients under 15 years old transported from a trauma scene to emergency department of Poursina hospital from 2010 to 2011 were included. Statistical analysis was applied to determine the ISS, NISS and RTS ability in predicting the outcomes of interest. Results： There were 588 records in hospital registry system. The mean age of the patients was （7.3 ± 3.8） years, and 62.1% （n = 365） of patients were male. RTS was the more ability score to predict mortality with an area under curve （AUC） of 0.99 （95% CI, 0.99-1）. In the hospital length of stay （LOS）, ISS was best predictor for both the hospital LOS with AUC of 0.72 （95% CI, 0.67-0.76） and need for surgical surgery with AUC of 0.94 （95% CI, 0.90-0,98）. Conclusion： RTS as a physiological scoring system has a higher predicting AUC value in predicting mortality. The anatomic scoring systems of ISS and NISS have good performance in predicting of hospital LOS and need for surgery outcomes.

快速Pitt菌血症评分联合乳酸预测急性下呼吸道感染患者的死亡风险

目的分析快速皮特菌血症(qPitt)评分联合急诊常用指标是否可作为急性下呼吸道感染患者28 d死亡风险的预测因素。方法以2018年7月1日至2023年12月31日收治于首都医科大学附属北京朝阳医院急诊科的急性下呼吸道感染患者为研究对象,以入院后28 d死亡为终点,将研究对象分为存活组和死亡组。使用单因素分析比较两组qPitt评分和临床指标的差异,并通过Logistic回归筛选影响急性下呼吸道感染患者28 d死亡的独立相关因素,建立联合预测模型,使用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评价独立相关因素及联合变量预测模型对急性下呼吸道感染患者28 d死亡的预测价值。结果共纳入患者696例,其中28 d存活组445例(63.9%)和28 d死亡组251例(36.1%)。死亡组年龄、降钙素原、D-二聚体、血乳酸(lactate,LAC)、血肌酐(SCr)及qPitt评分均高于存活组(均P<0.05),淋巴细胞计数和血小板计数均低于存活组(均P<0.05)。Logistic回归分析得出LAC(OR=1.258,95%CI 1.143~1.384,P<0.001)、年龄(OR=1.021,95%CI 1.008~1.034,P=0.001)及qPitt评分(OR=1.923,95%CI 1.597~2.317,P<0.001)是预测急性下呼吸道感染患者28 d死亡风险的独立因素。年龄、LAC与qPitt评分联合变量预测模型的ROC曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)为0.746(95%CI 0.708~0.784),高于LAC(AUC=0.692,95%CI 0.650~0.733)和qPitt评分(AUC=0.702,95%CI 0.660~0.743),且其预测效能优于单独应用LAC(Z=2.888,P=0.004)和qPitt评分(Z=3.850,P<0.001)。结论qPitt评分和LAC是急性下呼吸道感染患者死亡的独立危险因素,二者与年龄构建的联合变量预测模型可有效预测28 d死亡风险。