Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.

Explosion resistance performance of reinforced concrete box girder coated with polyurea:Model test and numerical simulation

To study the anti-explosion protection effect of polyurea coating on reinforced concrete box girder,two segmental girder specimens were made at a scale of 1:3,numbered as G(without polyurea coating)and PCG(with polyurea coating).The failure characteristics and dynamic responses of the specimens were compared through conducting explosion tests.The reliability of the numerical simulation using LS-DYNA software was verified by the test results.The effects of different scaled distances,reinforcement ratios,concrete strengths,coating thicknesses and ranges of polyurea were studied.The results show that the polyurea coating can effectively enhance the anti-explosion performance of the girder.The top plate of middle chamber in specimen G forms an elliptical penetrating hole,while that in specimen PCG only shows a very slight local dent.The peak vertical displacement and residual displacement of PCG decrease by 74.8% and 73.7%,respectively,compared with those of specimen G.For the TNT explosion with small equivalent,the polyurea coating has a more significant protective effect on reducing the size of fracture.With the increase of TNT equivalent,the protective effect of polyurea on reducing girder displacement becomes more significant.The optimal reinforcement ratio,concrete strength,thickness and range of polyurea coating were also drawn.

Health diagnosis of ultrahigh arch dam performance using heterogeneous spatial panel vector model

Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.

Similarity evaluation model for the internal defect detection of strip steel

An internal defect meter is an instrument to detect the internal inclusion defects of cold-rolled strip steel.The detection accuracy of the equipment can be evaluated based on the similarity of the multiple detection data obtained for the same steel coil.Based on the cosine similarity model and eigenvalue matrix model,a comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the weighted average of similarity is proposed.Results show that the new method is consistent with and can even replace artificial evaluation to realize the automatic evaluation of strip defect detection results.

Python Server Page Performance Analysis and Modeling

Today, in the field of computer networks, new services have been developed on the Internet or intranets, including the mail server, database management, sounds, videos and the web server itself Apache. The number of solutions for this server is therefore growing continuously, these services are becoming more and more complex and expensive, without being able to fulfill the needs of the users. The absence of benchmarks for websites with dynamic content is the major obstacle to research in this area. These users place high demands on the speed of access to information on the Internet. This is why the performance of the web server is critically important. Several factors influence performance, such as server execution speed, network saturation on the internet or intranet, increased response time, and throughputs. By measuring these factors, we propose a performance evaluation strategy for servers that allows us to determine the actual performance of different servers in terms of user satisfaction. Furthermore, we identified performance characteristics such as throughput, resource utilization, and response time of a system through measurement and modeling by simulation. Finally, we present a simple queue model of an Apache web server, which reasonably represents the behavior of a saturated web server using the Simulink model in Matlab (Matrix Laboratory) and also incorporates sporadic incoming traffic. We obtain server performance metrics such as average response time and throughput through simulations. Compared to other models, our model is conceptually straightforward. The model has been validated through measurements and simulations during the tests that we conducted.

Research on the Internal Talent Training Path and Performance Evaluation Mechanism of New R&D Institutions in Zhejiang Province

New research and development(R&D)institutions are an important part of the national innovation system,playing an important role in promoting the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.In recent years,new R&D institutions have gradually become the driving force of innovation-driven development in China.Taking new R&D institutions in Zhejiang Province as the research object,this paper studies the internal talent training path and performance evaluation mechanism of new R&D institutions in Zhejiang Province by using the literature research method,comparison method,case verification method,and other methods.The investigation results show that there are problems such as lack of material and spiritual support and neglect of the absorption of local talents in the internal talent training,and there are problems such as unclear standards,insufficient data,and opaque processes in the performance evaluation mechanism,which greatly affect the establishment and improvement of the performance evaluation mechanism.Given the above problems,this paper puts forward a forward-looking,oriented,flexible,and compatible talent training path and performance evaluation mechanism,hoping to optimize the effective internal talent training path of new R&D institutions,improve the evaluation performance,and promote healthy development of new R&D institutions in Zhejiang Province.

Can We Estimate the Impacts of Fixed Links Using Current Transport Models?Experiences from Concept Evaluations of Fixed Links on E39

Transport analysis and impact evaluations are important input for decisions about infrastructure projects.The impacts on transport from fjord crossing tunnels or bridges are the foundation for the cost benefit analysis,and also the basis for estimating the income from toll collection.Based on experiences from concept evaluations of several fixed link projects on E39,and an ongoing overall analysis,we question the results from transport analysis made by the official tools for such analysis:the RTM(regional transport model)which estimates the demand for trips below 10 km,the NTM(national transport model),for trips of 10 km or more,and the freight transport model.Both the NTM and the freight transport model are integrated in the RTM in the net assignment stage.We will demonstrate strengths and weaknesses in the transport models by showing contra intuitive or questionable results using the model as it is.The following questions arose as the initial results from the transport model were presented:Are the transport models able to capture immediate as well as long-term impacts?How would different assumptions about the monetary costs on these projects affect the forecasted demand and the cost benefit analysis?Are there other and wider ranges of impacts,if the analysis covers the total coastal highway as a whole,compared to evaluating impacts of each fixed link project individually?Do we have enough data to include transport effects of wider impacts of the fixed link projects?We had to deal with these questions in the concept evaluations carried out for the various fixed links project and in the current overall evaluation.We would like to suggest improvements in the analysis tools and emphasize requirements for knowledge about impacts of fixed links projects.

Study on the Construction and Evaluation System of Clinical Midwifery Teaching Faculty under the New Nursing Model

Objective:To explore the impact of the construction of a clinical midwifery teaching faculty and the development of an evaluation system under the new nursing model on the current teaching quality.Methods:From July 2022 to March 2023,10 clinical teaching teachers and 20 midwifery interns from Beijing Anzhen Hospital affiliated with Capital Medical University were selected as the subjects of this study.The clinical teaching teachers and midwifery interns were divided into an observation group and a control group,with each group including 5 clinical teaching teachers and 10 midwifery interns.The observation group received daily management and evaluation under the new nursing model,while the control group received management and evaluation under the traditional nursing model.The teaching quality evaluation of clinical midwifery teaching teachers by midwifery interns,the exit exam scores of midwifery interns,and the scores of clinical teaching teachers’internship lectures and teaching rounds were compared between the two groups.Results:In the observation group,the scores for teaching attitude,teaching skills,and teaching management in the teaching quality evaluation of clinical midwifery teaching teachers were higher than those in the control group.The professional theory scores(91.28±3.64)and overall nursing comprehensive scores(92.56±4.38)of midwifery interns in the observation group were higher than those of midwifery interns in the control group(81.58±2.27 and 80.29±3.33,respectively).The scores for internship lectures(89.32±4.15)and teaching rounds(90.64±5.52)in the observation group were also significantly higher than those in the control group(80.46±3.28 and 81.24±4.38,respectively),and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).Conclusion:The management of the clinical midwifery teaching faculty under the new nursing model effectively improved the quality of clinical teaching.It significantly enhanced the teaching effectiveness of clinical teaching teachers and the proficiency of midwifery interns in clinical operations,making it worthy of promotion and use.

A general evaluation system for optimal selection performance of radar clutter model

The optimal selection of radar clutter model is the premise of target detection,tracking,recognition,and cognitive waveform design in clutter background.Clutter characterization models are usually derived by mathematical simplification or empirical data fitting.However,the lack of standard model labels is a challenge in the optimal selection process.To solve this problem,a general three-level evaluation system for the model selection performance is proposed,including model selection accuracy index based on simulation data,fit goodness indexs based on the optimally selected model,and evaluation index based on the supporting performance to its third-party.The three-level evaluation system can more comprehensively and accurately describe the selection performance of the radar clutter model in different ways,and can be popularized and applied to the evaluation of other similar characterization model selection.

Shale gas production evaluation framework based on data-driven models

Increasing the production and utilization of shale gas is of great significance for building a clean and low-carbon energy system.Sharp decline of gas production has been widely observed in shale gas reservoirs.How to forecast shale gas production is still challenging due to complex fracture networks,dynamic fracture properties,frac hits,complicated multiphase flow,and multi-scale flow as well as data quality and uncertainty.This work develops an integrated framework for evaluating shale gas well production based on data-driven models.Firstly,a comprehensive dominated-factor system has been established,including geological,drilling,fracturing,and production factors.Data processing and visualization are required to ensure data quality and determine final data set.A shale gas production evaluation model is developed to evaluate shale gas production levels.Finally,the random forest algorithm is used to forecast shale gas production.The prediction accuracy of shale gas production level is higher than 95%based on the shale gas reservoirs in China.Forty-one wells are randomly selected to predict cumulative gas production using the optimal regression model.The proposed shale gas production evaluation frame-work overcomes too many assumptions of analytical or semi-analytical models and avoids huge computation cost and poor generalization for numerical modelling.

Evaluation of toppling rock slopes using a composite cloud model with DEMATEL–CRITIC method

Safety evaluation of toppling rock slopes developing in reservoir areas is crucial. To reduce the uncertainty of safety evaluation, this study developed a composite cloud model, which improved the combination weights of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. A safety evaluation system was developed according to in situ monitoring data. The backward cloud generator was used to calculate the numerical characteristics of a cloud model of quantitative indices, and different virtual clouds were used to synthesize some clouds into a generalized one. The synthesized numerical characteristics were calculated to comprehensively evaluate the safety of toppling rock slopes. A case study of a toppling rock slope near the Huangdeng Hydropower Station in China was conducted using monitoring data collected since operation of the hydropower project began. The results indicated that the toppling rock slope was moderately safe with a low safety margin. The composite cloud model considers the fuzziness and randomness of safety evaluation and enables interchange between qualitative and quantitative knowledge. This study provides a new theoretical method for evaluating the safety of toppling rock slopes. It can aid in the predication, control, and even prevention of disasters.

Evaluation and prediction of earth pressure balance shield performance in complex rock strata:A case study in Dalian,China

This research explores the potential for the evaluation and prediction of earth pressure balance shield performance based on a gray system model.The research focuses on a shield tunnel excavated for Metro Line 2 in Dalian,China.Due to the large error between the initial geological exploration data and real strata,the project construction is extremely difficult.In view of the current situation regarding the project,a quantitative method for evaluating the tunneling efficiency was proposed using cutterhead rotation(R),advance speed(S),total thrust(F)and torque(T).A total of 80 datasets with three input parameters and one output variable(F or T)were collected from this project,and a prediction framework based gray system model was established.Based on the prediction model,five prediction schemes were set up.Through error analysis,the optimal prediction scheme was obtained from the five schemes.The parametric investigation performed indicates that the relationships between F and the three input variables in the gray system model harmonize with the theoretical explanation.The case shows that the shield tunneling performance and efficiency are improved by the tunneling parameter prediction model based on the gray system model.

基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION METHOD FOR BUSINESS PROCESS OF MACHINERY MANUFACTURER BASED ON DEA/AHP HYBRID MODEL

A set of indices for performance evaluation for business processes with multiple inputs and multiple outputs is proposed, which are found in machinery manufacturers. Based on the traditional methods of data envelopment analysis （DEA） and analytical hierarchical process （AHP）, a hybrid model called DEA/AHP model is proposed to deal with the evaluation of business process performance. With the proposed method, the DEA is firstly used to develop a pairwise comparison matrix, and then the AHP is applied to evaluate the performance of business process using the pairwise comparison matrix. The significant advantage of this hybrid model is the use of objective data instead of subjective human judgment for performance evaluation. In the case study, a project of business process reengineering （BPR） with a hydraulic machinery manufacturer is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the DEA/AHP model.

Performance Evaluation of China's Agricultural Listed Companies Based on DEA Model

In order to evaluate the performance of China's agricultural listed companies,we analyze the overall efficiency,pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of China's agricultural listed companies on the basis of input-output data concerning 34 agricultural listed companies,using BCC model in data envelopment analysis ( DEA) model. Then we analyze input-output redundancy situation using the slack variable derived from the model. The results show that the overall efficiency of China's agricultural listed companies is good,and the gap in efficiency between sub-industries is small; there is significant difference in performance between listed companies engaged in the same sub-industry,and the reason for invalid DEA in companies within the industry is complex; total assets and asset-liability ratio are high,and the effective output is not fully realized. Finally corresponding recommendations are put forward for promoting the performance of agricultural listed companies as follows: strengthening brand awareness; promoting the level of production technology; adjusting the input structure; transforming the agricultural growth mode.

Performance Evaluation of Public Bus Transportation by Using DEA Models and Shannon’s Entropy:An Example From a Company in a Large City of China

The purpose of this paper is to assess the operational efficiency of a public bus transportation via a case study from a company in a large city of China by using data envelopment analysis(DEA)model and Shannon’s entropy.This company operates 37 main routes on the backbone roads.Thus,it plays a significant role in public transportation in the city.According to bus industry norms,an efficiency evaluation index system is constructed from the perspective of both company operations and passenger demands.For passenger satisfaction,passenger waiting time and passenger-crowding degree are considered,and they are undesirable indicators.To describe such indicators,a superefficient DEA model is constructed.With this model,by using actual data,efficiency is evaluated for each bus route.Results show that the DEA model with Shannon’s entropy being combined achieves more reasonable results.Also,sensitivity analysis is presented.Therefore,the results are meaningful for the company to improve its operations and management.

Assessment of Dependent Performance Shaping Factors in SPAR-H Based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient

With the improvement of equipment reliability,human factors have become the most uncertain part in the system.The standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis(SPAR-H)method is a reliable method in the field of human reliability analysis(HRA)to evaluate human reliability and assess risk in large complex systems.However,the classical SPAR-H method does not consider the dependencies among performance shaping factors(PSFs),whichmay cause overestimation or underestimation of the risk of the actual situation.To address this issue,this paper proposes a new method to deal with the dependencies among PSFs in SPAR-H based on the Pearson correlation coefficient.First,the dependence between every two PSFs is measured by the Pearson correlation coefficient.Second,the weights of the PSFs are obtained by considering the total dependence degree.Finally,PSFs’multipliers are modified based on the weights of corresponding PSFs,and then used in the calculating of human error probability(HEP).A case study is used to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Redesigning the Model of Book Evaluation in the Polish Performance-based Research Funding System

Purpose: This study aims to present the key systemic changes in the Polish book evaluation model to focus on the publisher list, as inspired by the Norwegian Model. Design/methodology/approach: In this study we reconstruct the framework of the 2010 and 2018 models of book evaluation in Poland within the performance-based research funding system. Findings: For almost 20 years the book evaluation system in Poland has been based on the verification of various technical criteria(e.g. length of the book). The new 2018 model is based on the principle of prestige inheritance(a book is worth as much as its publisher is) and is inspired by the publisher list used in the Norwegian Model. In this paper, we argue that this solution may be a more balanced policy instrument than the previous 2010 model in which neither the quality of the publisher nor the quality of the book played any role in the evaluation.Research limitations: We work from the framework of the 2018 model of book evaluation specified in the law on higher education and science from 20 July 2018, as implementation acts are not available yet. Practical implications: This study may provide a valuable point of reference on how structural reforms in the research evaluation model were implemented on a country level. The results of this study may be interesting to policy makers, stakeholders and researchers focused on science policy. Originality/value: This is the very first study that presents the new framework of the Polish research evaluation model and policy instruments for scholarly book evaluation. We describe what motivated policy makers to change the book evaluation model, and what arguments were explicitly raised to argue for the new solution.

Recent Advances in the Rapid Detection and Performance Evaluation Methods of Detergent Additives for Gasoline

Although detergent additives for gasoline have been widely commercialized,their formulas are often kept confidential and there is still no standardized method for quickly detecting the main active ingredients and evaluating their effectiveness,which makes their regulation difficult.An overview of the current state of the development and application of detergent additives for gasoline in China and other regions,as well as a review of the rapid detection and performance evaluation methods available for analyzing detergent additives are given herein.The review focuses on the convenience,cost,efficiency,and feasibility of on-site detection and the evaluation of various methods,and also looks into future research directions,such as detecting and evaluating detergent additives in ethanol gasoline and with advanced engine technologies.

Performance evaluation of CLM5.0 in simulating liquid soil water in high mountainous area,Northwest China

The model performance in simulating soil water content(SWC) is crucial for successfully modeling earth’s system,especially in high mountainous areas.In this study,the performance of Community Land Model 5.0(CLM5.0) in simulating liquid SWC was evaluated against observations from nine in-situ sites in the upper reach of the Heihe River Watershed(HRW),Northwest China.The CLM5.0 shows reliable performance in the study area with correlation coefficients(R) ranging between 0.79–0.93,root mean standard errors(RMSE)ranging between 0.044–0.097 m^(3)/m^(3),and the mean bias(BIAS) ranging between-0.084–0.061 m^(3)/m^(3).The slightly worse performance of CLM5.0 than CLM4.5 on alpine meadow and grassland is mainly caused by the revised canopy interception parameterization.The CLM5.0 overestimates interception and underestimates evapotranspiration(ET) on both alpine meadow and grassland during the growth period.The systematical overestimations at all the grassland sites indicate that the underestimation of ET is much larger than the overestimation of interception on grassland during growth period,while the errors of simulated interception and ET are partially canceled out on alpine meadow.Moreover,the underestimation of ET is more responsible for the overestimation of SWC than the overestimation of interception in the high mountainous area.It is necessary to estimate reasonable empirical parameter α(proportion of leaf water collection area) in interception parameterization scheme and further improve the dry surface layerbased soil evaporation resistance parameterization introduced in CLM5.0 in future researches.The performance of CLM5.0 is better under completely frozen stage than thawing stage and freezing stage,because of low variations of liquid SWC caused by extremely low hydraulic conductivity of soils.The underestimation of liquid SWC under frozen state is caused by underestimation of soil temperature,which leads to more ice mass and less liquid water in total water content.