This paper uses automatic vehicle location （AVL） records to investigate the effect of weather conditions on the travel time reliability of on-road rail transit, through a case study of the Melbourne streetcar （tram...This paper uses automatic vehicle location （AVL） records to investigate the effect of weather conditions on the travel time reliability of on-road rail transit, through a case study of the Melbourne streetcar （tram） network. The datasets available were an extensive historica; AVL dataset as well as weather observations. The sample size used in the analysis included all trips made over a period of five years （2006-2010 inclusive）, during the morning peak （7 am-9 am） for fifteen randomly selected radial tram routes, all traveling to the Melbourne CBD create a linear model Ordinary least square （OLS） regression analysis was conducted to with tram travel time being the dependent variable. An alternative formulation of the model is also compared. Travel time was regressed on various weather effects including precipitation, air temperature, sea level pressure and wind speed; as well as indicator variables for weekends, public holidays and route numbers to investigate a correlation between weather condition and the on-time performance of the trams. The results indicate that only precipitation and air temperature are significant in their effect on tram travel time. The model demonstrates that on average, an additional millimeter of precipitation during the peak period adversely affects the average travel time during that period by approximately 8 s, that is, rainfall tends to increase the travel time. The effect of air temperature is less intuitive, with the model indicating that trams adhere more closely to schedule when the temperature is different in absolute terms to the mean operating conditions （taken as 15 ℃）.展开更多
In a repairable consecutive C(k,n:F)system,after the system operates for a certain time,some components may fail,some failed components may be repaired and the state of the system may change.The models developed in th...In a repairable consecutive C(k,n:F)system,after the system operates for a certain time,some components may fail,some failed components may be repaired and the state of the system may change.The models developed in the existing literature usually assume that the state of the sys-tem varies over time depending on the values of n and k and the state of the system is known.Since the system reliability will vary over time,it is of great interest to analyse the time-dependent system reliability.In this paper,we develop a novel and simple method that utilizes the eigen-values of the transition rate matrix of the system for the computation of time-dependent system reliability when the system state is known.In addition,the transition performance probabilities of the system from a known state to the possible states are also analysed.Computational results are presented to illustrate the applicability and accuracy of the proposed method.展开更多
基金supported by the Australian Research Council(No.DE130100205)
文摘This paper uses automatic vehicle location （AVL） records to investigate the effect of weather conditions on the travel time reliability of on-road rail transit, through a case study of the Melbourne streetcar （tram） network. The datasets available were an extensive historica; AVL dataset as well as weather observations. The sample size used in the analysis included all trips made over a period of five years （2006-2010 inclusive）, during the morning peak （7 am-9 am） for fifteen randomly selected radial tram routes, all traveling to the Melbourne CBD create a linear model Ordinary least square （OLS） regression analysis was conducted to with tram travel time being the dependent variable. An alternative formulation of the model is also compared. Travel time was regressed on various weather effects including precipitation, air temperature, sea level pressure and wind speed; as well as indicator variables for weekends, public holidays and route numbers to investigate a correlation between weather condition and the on-time performance of the trams. The results indicate that only precipitation and air temperature are significant in their effect on tram travel time. The model demonstrates that on average, an additional millimeter of precipitation during the peak period adversely affects the average travel time during that period by approximately 8 s, that is, rainfall tends to increase the travel time. The effect of air temperature is less intuitive, with the model indicating that trams adhere more closely to schedule when the temperature is different in absolute terms to the mean operating conditions （taken as 15 ℃）.
基金H.K.T.Ng’s work was also supported by a grant from the Simons Foundation[Grant Number 709773]。
文摘In a repairable consecutive C(k,n:F)system,after the system operates for a certain time,some components may fail,some failed components may be repaired and the state of the system may change.The models developed in the existing literature usually assume that the state of the sys-tem varies over time depending on the values of n and k and the state of the system is known.Since the system reliability will vary over time,it is of great interest to analyse the time-dependent system reliability.In this paper,we develop a novel and simple method that utilizes the eigen-values of the transition rate matrix of the system for the computation of time-dependent system reliability when the system state is known.In addition,the transition performance probabilities of the system from a known state to the possible states are also analysed.Computational results are presented to illustrate the applicability and accuracy of the proposed method.
