Applying the AHP-FUZZY method to evaluate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: a case study of Chaidaer-Muli Railway

This article attempts to investigate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. As a case study, Chaidaer-Muli Railway is used to evaluate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions. The AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) method is thus employed to establish the evaluation indicator system. The evaluation factor is selected by analyzing the mutual relation between the permafrost environment and roadbed engineering. Thus, a hierarchical structure model is established based on the selected evaluation indices. Each factor is weighted to determine the status in the evaluation system, and grading standards are built for providing a basis for the evaluation. Then, the fuzzy mathematical method is introduced to evaluate the measure effect of rubble roadbed engineering in permafrost regions along the Chadaer-Muli Railway. Results show that most of the permafrost roadbed is in a preferable condition(b) along the Chaidaer-Muli Railway due to rubble engineering measures. This proportion reaches to 86.1%. The proportion in good(a), general(c) and poor states(d) are 0.0%, 7.5% and 6.4%, respectively, in all the evaluation sections along the Chaidaer-Muli Railway. Ground-temperature monitoring results are generally consistent with AHP-FUZZY evaluation results. This means that the AHP-FUZZY method can be applied to evaluate the effect of rubble roadbed engineering measures in permafrost regions. The effect evaluation of engineering measures will provide timely and effective feedback information for further engineering design. The series of engineering measures will more effectively protect permafrost stability.

A phylogenetic approach identifies patterns of beta diversity and floristic subregions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity and their relationships with environmental correlates can help reveal the origin and evolutionary history of regional biota.The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)harbors an exceptionally diverse flora,however,a phylogenetic perspective has rarely been used to investigate its beta diversity and floristic regions.In this study,we used a phylogenetic approach to identify patterns of beta diversity and quantitatively delimit floristic regions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.We also examined the relationships between multifaceted beta diversity,geographical distance,and climatic difference,and evaluated the relative importance of various factors(i.e.,climate,topography and history)in shaping patterns of beta diversity.Sørensen dissimilarity indices indicated that patterns of species turnover among sites dominated the QTP.We also found that patterns of both taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity were significantly related to geographical distance and climatic difference.The environmental factors that contributed most to these patterns of beta diversity include annual precipitation,mean annual temperature,climatic gradients and climatic instability.Hierarchical dendrograms of dissimilarity and non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination based on phylogenetic beta diversity data identified ten floristic subregions in the QTP.Our results suggest that the contemporary environment and historical climate changes have filtered species composition among sites and eventually determined beta diversity patterns of plants in the QTP.

Significant lake expansion has accelerated permafrost degradation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.

Lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are conducive to regional permafrost development

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)possesses the largest areas of permafrost in the midand low latitude regions on the earth and many large lakes in the permafrost area.Based on a comprehensive investigation around certain typical lakes,this study found that although the presence of lakes formed different ranges of unfrozen zones in permafrost,the heating effect of lake water on surrounding permafrost is limited to a small extent.The temperature of permafrost around the lake is closely related to the distance to the lake and the ice content of the permafrost.Around lakes are ice-rich permafrost zones and permafrost temperature in this area is significantly lower than that far away from the lake,which indicates that the existence of lakes in the QTP has special effect on the permafrost distribution.Based on the monitoring results,this study presents the typical distribution pattern of the permafrost around large lakes and discusses the reasons for the distribution pattern.Due to the huge area of lakes and the significant impact of lakes on permafrost distribution,it is suggested to re-estimate the total permafrost area and underground ice storage in the QTP.

Unveiling evapotranspiration patterns and energy balance in a subalpine forest of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau:observations and analysis from an eddy covariance system

Evapotranspiration is an important parameter used to characterize the water cycle of ecosystems.To under-stand the properties of the evapotranspiration and energy balance of a subalpine forest in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,an open-path eddy covariance system was set up to monitor the forest from November 2020 to October 2021 in a core area of the Three Parallel Rivers in the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau.The results show that the evapotranspira-tion peaked daily,the maximum occurring between 11:00 and 15:00.Environmental factors had significant effects on evapotranspiration,among them,net radiation the greatest(R^(2)=0.487),and relative humidity the least(R^(2)=0.001).The energy flux varied considerably in different seasons and sensible heat flux accounted for the main part of turbulent energy.The energy balance ratio in the dormant season was less than that in the growing season,and there is an energy imbalance at the site on an annual time scale.

Extracting water body data based on SDWI and threshold segmentation:A case study in permafrost area surrounding Salt Lake in Hoh Xil,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

There are a large number of lakes,rivers,and other natural water bodies distributed in the permafrost area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP).The changes in water bodies will affect the distribution of water resources in sur-rounding areas and downstream areas,resulting in environmental impact and bringing potential flood disasters,which will induce more serious issues and problems in alpine and high-altitude areas with a fragile habitat(such as the QTP in China).Generally,effective,reasonable,and scientific monitoring of large-scale water bodies can not only document the changes in water bodies intuitively,but also provide important theoretical reference for subsequent environmental impact prediction,and disaster prevention and mitigation in due course of time.The large-scale water extraction technology derived from the optical remote sensing(RS)image is seriously affected by clouds,bringing about large differences among the extracted water result products.Synthetic aperture radar(SAR)RS technology has the unique advantage characteristics of all-weather,all-day,strong penetration,and not being affected by clouds,which is hopeful in extracting water body data,especially for days with cloudy weather.The data extraction of large-scale water bodies based on SAR images can effectively avoid the errors caused by clouds that become prevalent at present.In this paper,the Hoh Xil Salt Lake on the QTP and its surrounding five lakes are taken as the research objects.The 2-scene Sentinel-1 SAR image data covering the whole area on 22 August 2022 was used to verify the feasibility of extracting water body data in permafrost zones.Furthermore,on 22 August 2022,the wealth here was cloudy,which made the optical RS images,e.g.,Sentinel-2 images full of clouds.The results show that:using the Sentinel-1 image and threshold segmentation method to extract water body data is efficient and effective with excellent results in permafrost areas.Concretely,the Sentinel-1 dual-polarized water index(SDWI),calculated by combining dual vertical–vertical(VV)polarized and verti-cal–horizontal(VH)polarized data is a useful index for water extraction and the result is better than each of the VV or VH polarized images.

Growth behavior and resource potential evaluation of gas hydrate in core fractures in Qilian Mountain permafrost area, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qilian Mountain permafrost area located in the northern of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a favorable place for natural gas hydrate formation and enrichment,due to its well-developed fractures and abundant gas sources.Understanding the formation and distribution of multi-component gas hydrates in fractures is crucial in accurately evaluating the hydrate reservoir resources in this area.The hydrate formation experiments were carried out using the core samples drilled from hydrate-bearing sediments in Qilian Mountain permafrost area and the multi-component gas with similar composition to natural gas hydrates in Qilian Mountain permafrost area.The formation and distribution characteristics of multi-component gas hydrates in core samples were observed in situ by X-ray Computed Tomography(X-CT)under high pressure and low temperature conditions.Results show that hydrates are mainly formed and distributed in the fractures with good connectivity.The ratios of volume of hydrates formed in fractures to the volume of fractures are about 96.8%and 60.67%in two different core samples.This indicates that the fracture surface may act as a favorable reaction site for hydrate formation in core samples.Based on the field geological data and the experimental results,it is preliminarily estimated that the inventory of methane stored in the fractured gas hydrate in Qilian Mountain permafrost area is about 8.67×1013 m3,with a resource abundance of 8.67×108 m3/km2.This study demonstrates the great resource potential of fractured gas hydrate and also provides a new way to further understand the prospect of natural gas hydrate and other oil and gas resources in Qilian Mountain permafrost area.

Analysis of the Cooling Mechanism of a Crushed Rock Embankment in Warm and Lower Temperature Permafrost Regions along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway

Based on data monitored in situ and theoretical analysis,the characteristics of the temperature field and mechanism of thermal conduction of a crushed rock embankment were studied along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.The results of experi-ments in the field revealed that the cooling effect of a crushed rock embankment is influenced mainly by the natural con-vection in winter and shield effect in summer,the ventilation of crushed rocks,and the ground temperature regime be-neath the embankment.Consequently,these three factors should be taken into account in numerical simulations,but it is as a result of natural convection only.

Soil Taxonomy and Distribution Characteristics of the Permafrost Region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

Understanding the soil taxonomy and distribution characteristics of the permafrost region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) is very important. On the basis of extensive field surveys and experimental analysis, this study carries out soil taxonomic classification of the permafrost region in the QTP. According to Chinese Soil Taxonomy, the soil of the permafrost region in the QTP can be divided into 6 Orders(Histosols, Aridosols, Gleyosols, Isohumosols, Cambosols, Primosols), 11 Suborders, 19 Groups and 24 Subgroups. Cambosols are the dominant soil type in the permafrost region, followed by Aridosols. From the east to the west of the permafrost region in the QTP, the soil type gradually changes from Cambosols to Aridosols, showing a meridional zonality. The eastern region is dominated by Cambosols, with no obvious latitudinal zonality. From the south to the northwest of the western region, the dominance of Aridosols and Cambosols gradually transited to Aridosols, presenting a latitudinal zonality. The soil in the western region shows a poor vertical zonality, while the distribution of suborders of Cambosols in the eastern region shows a more obvious vertical zonality. The result indicates that precipitation and vegetation are the main factors that influence the zonal distribution of soil. The permafrost in the east has some effect on the vertical soil zonality, but the effect is weakened in the west.

Spatial variability and its main controlling factors of the permafrost soil-moisture on the northern-slope of Bayan Har Mountains in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The soil moisture movement is an important carrier of material cycle and energy flow among the various geo-spheres in the cold regions.Thus, this research takes the north slope of Bayan Har Mountains in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as a case study.The present study firstly investigates the change of permafrost moisture in different slope positions and depths. Based on this investigation, this article attempts to investigate the spatial variability of permafrost moisture and identifies the key influence factors in different terrain conditions. The method of classification and regression tree(CART) is adopted to identify the main controlling factors influencing the soil moisture movement. The relationships between soil moisture and environmental factors are revealed by the use of the method of canonical correspondence analysis(CCA). The results show that: 1) Due to the terrain slope and the freezing-thawing process, the horizontal flow weakens in the freezing period. The vertical migration of the soil moisture movement strengthens. It will lead to that the soil-moisture content in the up-slope is higher than that in the down-slope. The conclusion is contrary during the melting period. 2) Elevation, soil texture, soil temperature and vegetation coverage are the main environmental factors which affect the slopepermafrost soil-moisture. 3) Slope, elevation and vegetation coverage are the main factors that affect the slope-permafrost soil-moisture at the shallow depth of 0-20 cm. It is complex at the middle and lower depth.

Evolution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the Late Quaternary

Due to the uplift of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau （QTP）, the cryosphere gradually developed on the higher mountain summits after the Neocene, becoming widespread during the Late Quaternary. During this time, permafrost on the QTP experienced repeated expansion and degradation. Based on the remains and cross-correlation with other proxy records such as those from glacial landforms, ice-core and paleogeography, the evolution and changes of permafrost and environmental changes on the QTP during the past 150,000 years were deduced and are presented in this paper.At least four obvious cycles of the extensive and intensive development, expansion and decay of permafrost occurred during the periods of 150-130, 80-50, 30-14 and after 10.8 ka B.P.. Ehiring the Holocene, fluctuating climatic environ-ments affected the permafrost on the QTP, and the peripheral mountains experienced six periods of discernible permafrost changes： （1） Stable development of permafrost in the early Holocene （10.8 to 8.5-7.0 ka B.P.）; （2） Intensive permafrost degradation during the Holocene Megathermal Period （HMP, from 8.5-7.0 to 4.0-3.0 ka B.P.）; （3） Permafrost expansion during the early Neoglacial period （ca. 4,000-3,000 to 1,000 a B.P.）; （4） Relative degradation during the Medieval Warm Period （MWP,from 1,000 to 500 a B.R）; （5） Expansion of permafrost during the Little Ice Age （LIA,from 500 to 10.a B.P.）; （6） Observed and predicted degradation of permafrost during the 20th and 21st century. Each period differed greatly in paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and permafrost distribution, thickness, areal extent, and ground temperatures, as well as in the development of periglacial phenomena. Statistically, closer dating of the onset permafrost formation, more identi-fication of permafrost remains with richer proxy information about paleoenvironment, and more dating information enable higher resolution for paleo-permafrost reconstruction. Based on the scenarios of persistent climate warming of 2 2 -2 .6 °C in the next 50 years, and in combination of the monitored trends of climate and permafrost changes, and model predictions suggest an accelerated regional degradation of plateau pemafrost. Therefore,during the first half of the 21st century, profound changes in the stability of alpine ecosystems and hydro（geo）logical environments in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers may occur. The foundation stability of key engineering infrastructures and sustainable eco-nomic development in cold regions on the QTP may be affected.

Impact of a retrogressive thaw slump on surrounding vegetation communities in the Fenghuoshan mountains,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Under global warming,permafrost around the world is experiencing degradation which is especially so on the Third Pole,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP),China.Retrogressive thaw slump(RTS)is one of the thermokarst features caused by rapid degradation of ice rich permafrost,which transforms landforms and threatens infrastructures,and even affects the terrestrial carbon cycle.In this work,vegetation communities surrounding a RTS in the Fenghuoshan Mountains of the interior portion of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have been investigated to examine the impact from RTS.This investigation indicates that the occurrence of RTS influences the vegetation community by altering their habitats,especially the soil water content,which forces the vegetation community to evolve in order to adapt to the alterations.In the interior part of RTS where it has been disturbed tremendously,alterations have produced a wider niche and richer plant species.This favors species of a wet environment in a habitat where it was a relatively dry environment of alpine steppe prior to the occurrence of RTS.This study adds to limited observations regarding the impact of RTS to vegetation community on the QTP and helps us to reach a broader understanding of the effects of permafrost degradation as well as global warming.

Thermal–moisture dynamics and thermal stability of active layer in response to wet/dry conditions in the central region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,China

The amount of rainfall varies unevenly in different regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with some regions becoming wetter and others drier. Precipitation has an important impact on the process of surface energy balance and the energy-water transfer within soils. To clarify the thermal-moisture dynamics and thermal stability of the active layer in permafrost regions under wet/dry conditions, the verified water-vapour-heat coupling model was used. Changes in the surface energy balance, energy-water transfer within the soil, and thickness of the active layer were quantitatively analyzed. The results demonstrate that rainfall changes significantly affect the Bowen ratio, which in turn affects surface energy exchange. Under wet/dry conditions, there is a positive correlation between rainfall and liquid water flux under the hydraulic gradient;water vapour migration is the main form under the temperature gradient, which indicates that the influence of water vapour migration on thermalmoisture dynamics of the active layer cannot be neglected. Concurrently, regardless of wet or dry conditions,disturbance of the heat transport by conduction caused by rainfall is stronger than that of convection by liquid water. In addition, when rainfall decreases by 1.5 times(212 mm) and increases by 1.5 times(477 mm), the thickness of the active layer increases by 0.12 m and decreases by 0.21 m, respectively. The results show that dry conditions are not conducive to the preservation of frozen soil;however, wet conditions are conducive to the preservation of frozen soil, although there is a threshold value. When this threshold value is exceeded, rainfall is unfavourable for the development of frozen soil.

Mountain permafrost distribution modeling using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS) in the Wenquan area over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In high mountainous areas, the development and distribution of alpine permafrost is greatly affected by macro- and mi- cro-topographic factors. The effects of latitude, altitude, slope, and aspect on the distribution of permafrost were studied to under- stand the dislribution patterns of permafrost in Wenquan on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Cluster and correlation analysis were per- formed based on 30 m Global Digital Elevation Model （GDEM） data and field data obtained using geophysical exploration and borehole drilling methods. A Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline model （MARS） was developed to simulate permafrost spa- tial distribution over the studied area. A validation was followed by comparing to 201 geophysical exploration sites, as well as by comparing to two other models, i.e., a binary logistic regression model and the Mean Annual Ground Temperature model （IVlAGT）. The MARS model provides a better simulation than the other two models. Besides the control effect of elevation on permafrost distribution, the MARS model also takes into account the impact of direct solar radiation on permafrost distribution.

Cryostructures and ground ice content in ice-rich permafrost area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with Computed Tomography Scanning

Permafrost is an important part of the cryosphere,playing an integral role in the hydrologic cycle,ecology,and influencing human activity.Melting of ground ice can drastically change landscapes and associated thaw subsidence may induce instability of infrastructure.The terrain conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are complex,and the spatial distribution of ground ice is highly variable,so knowledge of its abundance and variability is required for impact assessments relating to the degradation of permafrost.This study examined 55 permafrost samples from warm,ice-rich permafrost region in Beiluhe Basin,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The samples were examined using Computed Tomography scanning,and the ice content and cryostructure were determined.The results indicated that:1)variation in volumetric ice content was considerable(0%-70%),with a mean value of 17%;2)seven cryostructures were identified,including crustal,vein,lenticular,ataxitic,reticulate and layered cryostructure;3)volumetric ice content varied by cryostructure,with the highest associated with layered and ataxitic cryostructures.Volumetric ice contents were lowest for samples with pore and lenticular cryostructures.This work provides detailed ground ice content and will be helpful for assessing thaw subsidence and infrastructure stability on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Characteristics and changes of permafrost along the engineering corridor of National Highway 214 in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Due to a series of linear projects built along National Highway 214,the second"Permafrost Engineering Corridor"on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has formed.In this paper,by overcoming the problems of data decentralization and standard inconsistency,permafrost characteristics and changes along the engineering corridor are systematically summarized based on the survey and monitoring data.The results show that:1)Being controlled by elevation,the permafrost is distributed in flake discontinuity with mountains as the center along the line.The total length of the road section in permafrost regions is 365 km,of which the total length of the permafrost section of National Highway 214 is 216.7 km,and the total length of the permafrost section of Gong-Yu Expressway is 197.3 km.The mean annual ground temperature(MAGT)is higher than−1.5℃,and permafrost with MAGT lower than−1.5℃ is only distributed in the sections at Bayan Har Mountain and E'la Mountain.There are obvious differences in the distribution of ground ice in the different sections along the engineering corridor.The sections with high ice content are mainly located in Zuimatan,Duogerong Plain and the top of north and south slope of Bayan Har Mountain.The permafrost thickness is controlled by the ground temperature,and permafrost thickness increases with the decrease of the ground temperature,with the change rate of about 37 m/℃.2)Local factors(topography,landform,vegetation and lithology)affect the degradation process of permafrost,and then affect the distribution,ground temperature,thickness and ice content of permafrost.Asphalt pavement has greatly changed the heat exchange balance of the original ground,resulting in serious degradation of the permafrost.Due to the influence of roadbed direction trend,the phenomenon of shady-sunny slope is very significant in most sections along the line.The warming range of permafrost under the roadbed is gradually smaller with the increase of depth,so the thawing settlement of the shallow section with high ice-content permafrost is more significant.

Regional Differentiation Regularity and Influencing Factors of Population Change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) is the most unique region of human-land relations, and its main factor is population. By building a population and space dataset of the QTP at the township level from 1982 to 2017, this paper presents the pattern evolvement and regional distribution characteristics of township-level population in the QTP in detail for the first time. By using Geodetector method to analyze the influencing factors of township-level population change in the QTP, this paper provides scientific foundations for studying the Third Pole, ecological environment protection of the QTP, and human-land relations. The conclusions are as follows:1) The population spatial distribution is not balanced at the township level, presents the regional differentiation characteristics of ‘dense in southeast and sparse in northwest’ along the ‘Qilian-Jilong Line’, and demonstrates the phenomenon of population center of gravity moving to the hinterland of the plateau at an accelerated speed;2) The township-level population develops in a decentralized trend in general, and the cold-and hot-spot distribution of population has prominent spatial distribution characteristics. The population hot spots are concentrated in the surrounding areas of Xining, Golmud, Hotan and Lijiang;3) The population of the QTP is increasing, and the inter-annual change of township population has a relatively stable regional regularity;4) The level of per capita income is the leading factor in the change of township population, and its effect intensity is increasing continuously. The relative effect intensity of urbanization level and location conditions on population change has decreased significantly after 2000. The adaptability of living environment,such as topography and climate, has little influence on population change.

InSAR measurements of surface deformation over permafrost on Fenghuoshan Mountains section,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The permafrost development in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor(QTEC)is affected by natural environment changes and human engineering activities.Human engineering activities may damage the permafrost growing environment,which in turn impact these engineering activities.Thus high spatial-temporal resolution monitoring over the QTEC in the permafrost region is very necessary.This paper presents a method for monitoring the frozen soil area using the intermittent coherencebased small baseline subset(ICSBAS).The method can improve the point density of the results and enhance the interpretability of deformation results by identifying the discontinuous coherent points according to the coherent value of time series.Using the periodic function that models the seasonal variation of permafrost,we separate the long wavelength atmospheric delay and establish an estimation model for the frozen soil deformation.Doing this can raise the monitoring accuracy and improve the understanding of the surface deformation of the frozen soil.In this study,we process 21 PALSAR data acquired by the Alos satellite with the proposed ICSBAS technique.The results show that the frozen soil far from the QTR in the study area experiences frost heave and thaw settlement(4.7 cm to8.4 cm)alternatively,while the maximum settlement along the QTR reaches 12 cm.The interferomatric syntnetic aperture radar(InSAR)-derived results are validated using the ground leveling data nearby the Beiluhe basin.The validation results show the InSAR results have good consistency with the leveling data in displacement rates as well as time series.We also find that the deformation in the permafrost area is correlated with temperature,human activities and topography.Based on the interfering degree of human engineering activities on the permafrost environment,we divide the QTEC along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway into engineering damage zone,transition zone and natural permafrost.

Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3) and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4) has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4) into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.

Analysis about the influence on the thermal regime in permafrost regions with different underlying surfaces

In the last several decades, the underlying surface conditions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have changed dramatically, causing permafrost degradation due to climate change and human activities. This change severely influenced the cold regions environment and engineering infrastructure built above permafrost. Permafrost is a product of the interaction between the atmosphere and the ground. The formation and change of permafrost are determined by the energy exchange between earth and atmosphere system. Fieldwork was performed in order to learn how land surface change influenced the thermal regime in permafrost regions. In this article, the field data observed in the Fenghuo Mountain regions was used to analyze the thermal conditions under different underlying surfaces on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results show that underlying surface change may alter the primary energy balance and the thermal conditions of permafrost. The thermal flux in the permafrost regions is also changed, resulting in rising upper soil temperature and thickening active layer. Vegetation could prevent solar radiation from entering the ground, cooling the ground in the warm season. Also, vegetation has heat insulation and heat preservation functions related to the ground surface and may keep the permafrost stable. Plots covered with black plastic film have higher temperatures compared with plots covered by natural vegetation. The reason is that black plastic film has a low albedo, which could increase the absorbed solar radiation, and also decrease evapotranspiration. The ＂greenhouse effect＂ of transparent plastic film might effectively reduce the emission of long-wave radiation from the surface, decreasing heat loss from the earth＇s surface, and prominently increasing ground surface temperature.