Based on Iran's sixth development plan,the country's oil and gas industry requires an investment of about$200 bn in the next five years to increase production.The Iranian government,to attract and motivate int...Based on Iran's sixth development plan,the country's oil and gas industry requires an investment of about$200 bn in the next five years to increase production.The Iranian government,to attract and motivate international oil company investment in their oil and gas fields,has presented a new type of risk service contract:the Iranian Petroleum Contract(IPC).This paper summarizes the features of the IPC and presents mathematical models of its fiscal regime for the benefit and guidance of both the National Iranian Oil Company(NIOC)and the contractors.Next,adopting bargaining game theory provides a mathematical model for reaching a win-win situation between the NIOC and the contractor.Finally,a numerical example is given and a sensitivity analysis performed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed models.The contractor and the NIOC may use these models when preparing their proposal and in the course of actual negotiations to calculate their internal rate of return,remuneration fee,and net present value for developing the fields at different conditions of their bargaining power,and derive a logical bargain to protect their best possible interests.展开更多
Following three generations of buyback contracts,the new model of Iranian petroleum contracts(IPC) was introduced by the Iranian cabinet to incentivize investments in the country.This paper analyzes the fiscal terms o...Following three generations of buyback contracts,the new model of Iranian petroleum contracts(IPC) was introduced by the Iranian cabinet to incentivize investments in the country.This paper analyzes the fiscal terms of the contract with technical information from one of the candidate fields for licensing.The financial simulation shows that,in general,the IPC resembles more a service contract than a production sharing contract as the contractor's take is relatively low—below 5% across different scenarios of crude oil price.Second,the IPC is progressive in that as the overall profitability of the project improves the government takes an increasing share of the economic rent.The results are confirmed in a sensitivity analysis of each party's profitability and takes on oil price,CAPEX,OPEX and the fee.展开更多
Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion （GBM） or the Mean-Reverting Process （MRP）, this paper takes the net present value （NPV） as an economic index and models the P...Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion （GBM） or the Mean-Reverting Process （MRP）, this paper takes the net present value （NPV） as an economic index and models the PSC in 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element （i.e. royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax）. Then the NPVs are shown in probability density graphs to investigate the effect of different elements on contract economics. The results show that under oil price uncertainty the influence of profit oil and income tax on NPV are more significant than those of royalty and cost oil, while a tax holiday could improve the contractor＇s financial status remarkably. Results also show that MRP is more appropriate for cases with low future oil price volatility, and GBM is best for high future oil price volatility.展开更多
文摘Based on Iran's sixth development plan,the country's oil and gas industry requires an investment of about$200 bn in the next five years to increase production.The Iranian government,to attract and motivate international oil company investment in their oil and gas fields,has presented a new type of risk service contract:the Iranian Petroleum Contract(IPC).This paper summarizes the features of the IPC and presents mathematical models of its fiscal regime for the benefit and guidance of both the National Iranian Oil Company(NIOC)and the contractors.Next,adopting bargaining game theory provides a mathematical model for reaching a win-win situation between the NIOC and the contractor.Finally,a numerical example is given and a sensitivity analysis performed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed models.The contractor and the NIOC may use these models when preparing their proposal and in the course of actual negotiations to calculate their internal rate of return,remuneration fee,and net present value for developing the fields at different conditions of their bargaining power,and derive a logical bargain to protect their best possible interests.
文摘Following three generations of buyback contracts,the new model of Iranian petroleum contracts(IPC) was introduced by the Iranian cabinet to incentivize investments in the country.This paper analyzes the fiscal terms of the contract with technical information from one of the candidate fields for licensing.The financial simulation shows that,in general,the IPC resembles more a service contract than a production sharing contract as the contractor's take is relatively low—below 5% across different scenarios of crude oil price.Second,the IPC is progressive in that as the overall profitability of the project improves the government takes an increasing share of the economic rent.The results are confirmed in a sensitivity analysis of each party's profitability and takes on oil price,CAPEX,OPEX and the fee.
基金financial support from Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research of Ministry of Education (09JZD0038)
文摘Assuming that oil price follows the stochastic processes of Geometric Brownian Motion （GBM） or the Mean-Reverting Process （MRP）, this paper takes the net present value （NPV） as an economic index and models the PSC in 11 different scenarios by changing the value of each contract element （i.e. royalty, cost oil, profit oil as well as income tax）. Then the NPVs are shown in probability density graphs to investigate the effect of different elements on contract economics. The results show that under oil price uncertainty the influence of profit oil and income tax on NPV are more significant than those of royalty and cost oil, while a tax holiday could improve the contractor＇s financial status remarkably. Results also show that MRP is more appropriate for cases with low future oil price volatility, and GBM is best for high future oil price volatility.
