In the face of global warming and increasing impervious surfaces,quantifying the change of climate potential productivity(CPP)is of great significance for the food production planning.Targeting the Dongting Lake Basin...In the face of global warming and increasing impervious surfaces,quantifying the change of climate potential productivity(CPP)is of great significance for the food production planning.Targeting the Dongting Lake Basin,which is a key area for food production in China,this paper uses meteorological data,as well as Climate Change Initiative Land Cover,and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model to investigate the CPP and its changes from 2000 to 2020.The suitability of land for cultivation(SLC),and the land use/land cover change(LUCC)are also considered.The results showed that the CPP varied from 9,825 to 20,895 kg ha^(-1).Even though the newly added impervious surfaces indirectly resulted in the decrease of CPP by of 9.81×10~8 kg,overall,the CPP increased at an average rate of 83.7 kg ha^(-1)a^(-1).Global warming is the strongest driver behind CPP increase,and CPP has played an important role in the conversions between cultivated land and other land types.The structure of land types tends to be optimized against this challenge.展开更多
This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic s...This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic scenario published by National Climate Center,in combination with the demand of climatic condition for maize growth in Northeast China.The trajectory of agricultural climatic resources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed.The main agro-climatic resource factors include:the initial date daily average temperature stably passing 10℃(≥10℃),the first frost date,the days of growing period,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature,and the total radiation and precipitation in the growing period.The results showed that:(1) in the coming 100 years,the first date of ≥10℃ would be significantly advanced,and the first frost date would be delayed.The days of growing period would be extended,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and the total radiation would be significantly increased.However,no significant change was found in precipitation.(2) Due to the climate change,the early-maturing varieties will be gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties in Northeast China,and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extended northward and eastward.(3) There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value gradually moving towards northeast.(4) It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date.展开更多
Climate warming is expected to influence forest growth,composition and distribution.However,accurately estimating and predicting forest biomass,potential productivity or forest growth is still a challenge for forest m...Climate warming is expected to influence forest growth,composition and distribution.However,accurately estimating and predicting forest biomass,potential productivity or forest growth is still a challenge for forest managers dealing with land-use at the stand to regional levels.In the present study,we predicted the potential productivity(PP)of forest under current and future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5)in Jilin province,northeastern China by using Paterson’s Climate Vegetation and Productivity(CVP)index model.The PP was validated by comparing it with the mean and maximum net primary production calculated from light energy utilization(GLM_PEM).Our results indicated that using the CVP index model is partially valid for predicting the potential forest productivity in northeastern China.PP exhibited obvious spatial heterogeneity varying from 4.6 to 8.9 m3 ha-1 year-1 with an increasing tendency from northwest to southeast driven by the precipitation across the region.The number of vegetation-active months,precipitation and insolation coefficient were identified as the primary factors affecting PP,but no significant relationship was found for warmest temperature or temperature fluctuation.Under future climate scenarios,PP across the Jilin Province is expected to increase from 1.38%(RCP2.6 in 2050)to 15.30%(RCP8.5 in 2070),especially in the eastern Songnen Plain(SE)for the RCP8.5 scenarios.展开更多
There are more people but less land in China,so food safety has always been a most important issue government concerned.With continuous population increase,economic development and environment protection,cropland occu...There are more people but less land in China,so food safety has always been a most important issue government concerned.With continuous population increase,economic development and environment protection,cropland occupation and supplement are unavoidable.It not only leads to the variation of cropland area,but also makes the light-temperature potential productivity per unit area different due to regional climate differentiation,therefore impacts the total potential productivity and food output eventually.So,it is necessary to analyze the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and to study its impact on total potential productivity,which is significant to reasonably develop natural resources and instruct agricultural arrangement.This study firstly discussed the variation and distribution of occupation and supplement croplands in China from 2000 to 2008,then analyzed the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and its effect on light-temperature potential productivity.The results demonstrate:1) From 2000 to 2008,the cropland variation presented occupation in the south and supplement in the north,but overall decreased.Supplement cropland was mainly from ecological reclamation(77.78%) and was mainly distributed in Northeast China and Northwest China with poor climatic and natural conditions.Occupation cropland was mainly used for construction(52.88%) and ecological restoration(44.78%) purposes,and was mainly distributed in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,and the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River with better climatic and natural conditions.2) The climate conditions were quite different in supplement and occupation cropland areas.The annual precipitation,annual accumulated temperature and average annual temperature were lower in the supplement cropland area,and its average po-tential productivity per unit was only 62% of occupation cropland area,which was the main reason for the decrease of total potential productivity.3) Cropland occupation and supplement led to the variation of total potential productivity and its spatial distribution.The productivity decreased in the south and increased in the north,but had a net loss of 4.38315×107 t in the whole country.The increase of cropland area was at the cost of reclaiming natural forest and grassland resources,and destroying natural ecological environment,while the decrease of cropland area was mainly due to a lot of cropland occupied by urban-rural construction,which threatened the sustainable use of cropland resources.展开更多
The emissions of greenhouse gasses in Egypt are about 0.58% of the total emissions of the world in the year 2015, although Egypt is one of the countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. By assessment an...The emissions of greenhouse gasses in Egypt are about 0.58% of the total emissions of the world in the year 2015, although Egypt is one of the countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. By assessment and analysis of the expected economic impacts of climate change by the year 2030, the Egyptian cultivated area will be reduced to about 0.949 million acres, equal to about 8.22% of the Egyptian cultivated area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, thus reducing crop area in Egypt to about 1.406 million acres, approximately to about 6.25% of crop area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, in addition to surplus in the Egyptian balance water to about 2.48 billion m3. In this case value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 6.19 billion dollars, equal to about 6.19% compared with presumably no sinking of the Delta land. In the case of sinking 15% of Delta lands, with the change of the productivity and water consumption of most crops, the result will be a reduction in the cultivated area to about 0.94 million acres. In addition to decreasing the Egyptian crop area to about 1.39 million acres, with a deficit in the Egyptian balance water to about 4.74 billion m3 compared to the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, the cultivated area will decrease to about 8.17%, and the crop area will decrease 6.18%. Also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 12.51%. While compared to sinking part of the Delta land to about 15% of the total Delta area without the other impacts of climate change, the cultivated area will increase by about 0.06%;the crop area will increase by about 0.08%;also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 5.57%.展开更多
The aim of this study is to compare the impacts of climate change on the potential productivity and potential productivity gaps of sunflower (Helianthus annuus), potato (Solanurn tuberosurn), and spring wheat (Tr...The aim of this study is to compare the impacts of climate change on the potential productivity and potential productivity gaps of sunflower (Helianthus annuus), potato (Solanurn tuberosurn), and spring wheat (Triticumaestivurn Linn) in the agro-pastoral ecotone (APE) of North China. A crop growth dynamics statistical method was used to calculate the potential productivity affected by light, temperature, precipitation, and soil fertility. The growing season average temperature increased by 0.47, 0.48, and 0.52℃ per decade (p 〈 0.05) for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively, from 1981 to 2010. Meanwhile, the growing season solar radiation showed a decreasing trend (p 〈 0.05) and the growing season precipitation changed non-significantly across APE. The light-temperature potential productivity increased by 4.48% per decade for sunflower but decreased by 1.58% and 0.59% per decade for potato and spring wheat. The climate soil potential productivity reached only 31.20%, 27.79%, and 20.62% of the light-emperature potential produc- tivity for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The gaps between the light-temperature and climate-soil potential productivity increased by 6.41%, 0.97%, and 1.29% per decade for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The increasing suitability of the climate for sunflower suggested that the sown area of sunflower should be increased compared with potato and spring wheat in APE under future climate warming.展开更多
The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China(SWC) are investigated in this paper.We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic,li...The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China(SWC) are investigated in this paper.We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic,light-temperature,and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC,by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method.During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010,minimum temperature increased by 0.20℃ per decade(p 〈 0.01) across SWC.The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province.Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day^(-1) per decade(p 〈 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC.Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha^(-1)per decade(p 〈 0.05).Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased(p 〈 0.05) in the northeast of SWC,whereas they increased(p 〈 0.05) in the southwest of SWC.The gap between lighttemperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha^(-1),with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC.Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24%of the light-temperature potential productivity,suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas.In particular,the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years.Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC.The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.展开更多
Using meteorological data and RS dynamic land-use observation data set, the po-tential land productivity that is limited by solar radiation and temperature is estimated and the impacts of recent LUCC processes on it a...Using meteorological data and RS dynamic land-use observation data set, the po-tential land productivity that is limited by solar radiation and temperature is estimated and the impacts of recent LUCC processes on it are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the influence of LUCC processes on potential land productivity change has extensive and unbal-anced characteristics. It generally reduces the productivity in South China and increases it in North China, and the overall effect is increasing the total productivity by 26.22 million tons. The farmland reclamation and original farmlands losses are the primary causes that led potential land productivity to change. The reclamation mostly distributed in arable-pasture and arable-forest transitional zones and oasises in northwestern China has made total productivity increase by 83.35 million tons, accounting for 3.50% of the overall output. The losses of original farmlands driven by built-up areas invading and occupying arable land are mostly distributed in the regions which have rapid economic development, e.g. Huang-Huai-Hai plain, Yangtze River delta, Zhu-jiang delta, central part of Gansu, southeast coastal region, southeast of Sichuan Basin and Urumqi-Shihezi. It has led the total productivity to decrease 57.13 million tons, which is 2.40% of the overall output.展开更多
Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and...Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and in the future 35 years(2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.展开更多
Using the meteorological data set for 1951—1990 over 160 stations,a series of 10-year running mean curves of temperature and precipitation averaged for the country and its 7 climate regions,as well as for each season...Using the meteorological data set for 1951—1990 over 160 stations,a series of 10-year running mean curves of temperature and precipitation averaged for the country and its 7 climate regions,as well as for each season,are obtained and analyzed.The six aspects of main results can be summarized about the climate change in China and its influence on agriculture production in the last 40 years.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72174211)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.2023JJ30693)。
文摘In the face of global warming and increasing impervious surfaces,quantifying the change of climate potential productivity(CPP)is of great significance for the food production planning.Targeting the Dongting Lake Basin,which is a key area for food production in China,this paper uses meteorological data,as well as Climate Change Initiative Land Cover,and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model to investigate the CPP and its changes from 2000 to 2020.The suitability of land for cultivation(SLC),and the land use/land cover change(LUCC)are also considered.The results showed that the CPP varied from 9,825 to 20,895 kg ha^(-1).Even though the newly added impervious surfaces indirectly resulted in the decrease of CPP by of 9.81×10~8 kg,overall,the CPP increased at an average rate of 83.7 kg ha^(-1)a^(-1).Global warming is the strongest driver behind CPP increase,and CPP has played an important role in the conversions between cultivated land and other land types.The structure of land types tends to be optimized against this challenge.
基金supported by the Research and Development Special Fundfor Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (GYHY201106020)
文摘This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic scenario published by National Climate Center,in combination with the demand of climatic condition for maize growth in Northeast China.The trajectory of agricultural climatic resources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed.The main agro-climatic resource factors include:the initial date daily average temperature stably passing 10℃(≥10℃),the first frost date,the days of growing period,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature,and the total radiation and precipitation in the growing period.The results showed that:(1) in the coming 100 years,the first date of ≥10℃ would be significantly advanced,and the first frost date would be delayed.The days of growing period would be extended,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and the total radiation would be significantly increased.However,no significant change was found in precipitation.(2) Due to the climate change,the early-maturing varieties will be gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties in Northeast China,and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extended northward and eastward.(3) There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value gradually moving towards northeast.(4) It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date.
文摘Climate warming is expected to influence forest growth,composition and distribution.However,accurately estimating and predicting forest biomass,potential productivity or forest growth is still a challenge for forest managers dealing with land-use at the stand to regional levels.In the present study,we predicted the potential productivity(PP)of forest under current and future climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0 and RCP8.5)in Jilin province,northeastern China by using Paterson’s Climate Vegetation and Productivity(CVP)index model.The PP was validated by comparing it with the mean and maximum net primary production calculated from light energy utilization(GLM_PEM).Our results indicated that using the CVP index model is partially valid for predicting the potential forest productivity in northeastern China.PP exhibited obvious spatial heterogeneity varying from 4.6 to 8.9 m3 ha-1 year-1 with an increasing tendency from northwest to southeast driven by the precipitation across the region.The number of vegetation-active months,precipitation and insolation coefficient were identified as the primary factors affecting PP,but no significant relationship was found for warmest temperature or temperature fluctuation.Under future climate scenarios,PP across the Jilin Province is expected to increase from 1.38%(RCP2.6 in 2050)to 15.30%(RCP8.5 in 2070),especially in the eastern Songnen Plain(SE)for the RCP8.5 scenarios.
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No KSCX1-YW-09-01)
文摘There are more people but less land in China,so food safety has always been a most important issue government concerned.With continuous population increase,economic development and environment protection,cropland occupation and supplement are unavoidable.It not only leads to the variation of cropland area,but also makes the light-temperature potential productivity per unit area different due to regional climate differentiation,therefore impacts the total potential productivity and food output eventually.So,it is necessary to analyze the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and to study its impact on total potential productivity,which is significant to reasonably develop natural resources and instruct agricultural arrangement.This study firstly discussed the variation and distribution of occupation and supplement croplands in China from 2000 to 2008,then analyzed the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and its effect on light-temperature potential productivity.The results demonstrate:1) From 2000 to 2008,the cropland variation presented occupation in the south and supplement in the north,but overall decreased.Supplement cropland was mainly from ecological reclamation(77.78%) and was mainly distributed in Northeast China and Northwest China with poor climatic and natural conditions.Occupation cropland was mainly used for construction(52.88%) and ecological restoration(44.78%) purposes,and was mainly distributed in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,and the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River with better climatic and natural conditions.2) The climate conditions were quite different in supplement and occupation cropland areas.The annual precipitation,annual accumulated temperature and average annual temperature were lower in the supplement cropland area,and its average po-tential productivity per unit was only 62% of occupation cropland area,which was the main reason for the decrease of total potential productivity.3) Cropland occupation and supplement led to the variation of total potential productivity and its spatial distribution.The productivity decreased in the south and increased in the north,but had a net loss of 4.38315×107 t in the whole country.The increase of cropland area was at the cost of reclaiming natural forest and grassland resources,and destroying natural ecological environment,while the decrease of cropland area was mainly due to a lot of cropland occupied by urban-rural construction,which threatened the sustainable use of cropland resources.
文摘The emissions of greenhouse gasses in Egypt are about 0.58% of the total emissions of the world in the year 2015, although Egypt is one of the countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. By assessment and analysis of the expected economic impacts of climate change by the year 2030, the Egyptian cultivated area will be reduced to about 0.949 million acres, equal to about 8.22% of the Egyptian cultivated area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, thus reducing crop area in Egypt to about 1.406 million acres, approximately to about 6.25% of crop area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, in addition to surplus in the Egyptian balance water to about 2.48 billion m3. In this case value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 6.19 billion dollars, equal to about 6.19% compared with presumably no sinking of the Delta land. In the case of sinking 15% of Delta lands, with the change of the productivity and water consumption of most crops, the result will be a reduction in the cultivated area to about 0.94 million acres. In addition to decreasing the Egyptian crop area to about 1.39 million acres, with a deficit in the Egyptian balance water to about 4.74 billion m3 compared to the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, the cultivated area will decrease to about 8.17%, and the crop area will decrease 6.18%. Also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 12.51%. While compared to sinking part of the Delta land to about 15% of the total Delta area without the other impacts of climate change, the cultivated area will increase by about 0.06%;the crop area will increase by about 0.08%;also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 5.57%.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201506016)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2015ZH002)+1 种基金National Support Plan(2012BAD09B02)National Agricultural Intelligence Tendering Platform(2015Z007)
文摘The aim of this study is to compare the impacts of climate change on the potential productivity and potential productivity gaps of sunflower (Helianthus annuus), potato (Solanurn tuberosurn), and spring wheat (Triticumaestivurn Linn) in the agro-pastoral ecotone (APE) of North China. A crop growth dynamics statistical method was used to calculate the potential productivity affected by light, temperature, precipitation, and soil fertility. The growing season average temperature increased by 0.47, 0.48, and 0.52℃ per decade (p 〈 0.05) for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively, from 1981 to 2010. Meanwhile, the growing season solar radiation showed a decreasing trend (p 〈 0.05) and the growing season precipitation changed non-significantly across APE. The light-temperature potential productivity increased by 4.48% per decade for sunflower but decreased by 1.58% and 0.59% per decade for potato and spring wheat. The climate soil potential productivity reached only 31.20%, 27.79%, and 20.62% of the light-emperature potential produc- tivity for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The gaps between the light-temperature and climate-soil potential productivity increased by 6.41%, 0.97%, and 1.29% per decade for sunflower, potato, and spring wheat, respectively. The increasing suitability of the climate for sunflower suggested that the sown area of sunflower should be increased compared with potato and spring wheat in APE under future climate warming.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China(2013CB430205)
文摘The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China(SWC) are investigated in this paper.We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic,light-temperature,and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC,by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method.During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010,minimum temperature increased by 0.20℃ per decade(p 〈 0.01) across SWC.The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province.Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day^(-1) per decade(p 〈 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC.Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha^(-1)per decade(p 〈 0.05).Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased(p 〈 0.05) in the northeast of SWC,whereas they increased(p 〈 0.05) in the southwest of SWC.The gap between lighttemperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha^(-1),with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC.Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24%of the light-temperature potential productivity,suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas.In particular,the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years.Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC.The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.
基金the mgjor res each plan of the National Natural Science Foumndation of China(Gant No.90202002) the National Major Basic R.ecearch Projects(Gant No.2002CB412507).
文摘Using meteorological data and RS dynamic land-use observation data set, the po-tential land productivity that is limited by solar radiation and temperature is estimated and the impacts of recent LUCC processes on it are analyzed in this paper. The results show that the influence of LUCC processes on potential land productivity change has extensive and unbal-anced characteristics. It generally reduces the productivity in South China and increases it in North China, and the overall effect is increasing the total productivity by 26.22 million tons. The farmland reclamation and original farmlands losses are the primary causes that led potential land productivity to change. The reclamation mostly distributed in arable-pasture and arable-forest transitional zones and oasises in northwestern China has made total productivity increase by 83.35 million tons, accounting for 3.50% of the overall output. The losses of original farmlands driven by built-up areas invading and occupying arable land are mostly distributed in the regions which have rapid economic development, e.g. Huang-Huai-Hai plain, Yangtze River delta, Zhu-jiang delta, central part of Gansu, southeast coastal region, southeast of Sichuan Basin and Urumqi-Shihezi. It has led the total productivity to decrease 57.13 million tons, which is 2.40% of the overall output.
基金Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530749 Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education,No.15ZB0023+1 种基金 Youth Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41301196,No.41501202 Chongqing Foundation and Advanced Research Project,No.cstc2014jcyj A0808
文摘Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and in the future 35 years(2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.
文摘Using the meteorological data set for 1951—1990 over 160 stations,a series of 10-year running mean curves of temperature and precipitation averaged for the country and its 7 climate regions,as well as for each season,are obtained and analyzed.The six aspects of main results can be summarized about the climate change in China and its influence on agriculture production in the last 40 years.