Spatial matching and flow in supply and demand of water provision services: A case study in Xiangjiang River Basin

Global climate change and increased human consumption have aggravated the uneven spatiotemporal distribution of watershed water resources, affecting the water provision supply and demand state. However, this problem has often been ignored. The present study used the Xiangjiang River basin(XRB) as the study area, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST) model, demand quantification model,supply–demand ratio, and water flow formula were applied to explore the spatial heterogeneity, flow, and equilibrium between water supply and demand. The results demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity in the upstream, midstream, and downstream regions.The areas of water shortage were mainly located the downstream of the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan urban agglomeration, and the Hengyang basin was the most scarcity area. Affected by terrain gradients and human needs, water flow varied from-16.33 × 10^(8) m^(3) to 13.69 × 10^(8) m^(3)from the upstream to the downstream area, which provided a possibility to reduce spatial heterogeneity. In the future, measures such as strengthening water resource system control,sponge city construction, and dynamic monitoring technology should be taken to balance the supply and demand of water in different river sections of the basin. This study can provide references for regulating water resources allocation in different reaches of the basin.

The Matching Status of Community Family-Care Service Supply and Demand in Shanghai

Shanghai has entered the depth of the current population aging stage, pure old home, and the empty nest family, lonely elderly people are gradually increasing, the elderly how to provide has become an issue concern in public society. However, with the developing of economic and society, the traditional family＇ s structure and function is gradually being weaken, and the traditional idea of raising children for old age is deeply rooted, elderly people are reluctant to leave their original place. So community family-care is becoming the main endowment way. However, there is a big problem in the quantity and quality of service which is supplied by community, the project that a lot of elderly people really needs, the community does not provide, and some projects are now offered to elderly people, the quality still can not fully to meet the needs of older persons. Those problems are urgently need to be solved. This study aims to know the current status of community family-care in Shanghai, starting from the needs of older persons to allocate the community resources rationally, further improve the quality of the pension service, protect the interests of the elderly.

Farmer's Perception on Supply-Demand Matching of New Variety and Its Influence Factors

Using disordered multinomial logistic regression and multiple linear regression method,385 copies of questionnaires on farmer are analyzed to explore the relationship between peasant's psychological traits,peasant's cognition on seed technology and perception on supplydemand matching of new variety.Research results show that the vast majority of farmers think that current new variety is at high-level supplydemand balance and the oversupply status,and updating speed of new variety on the market is faster;the farmers preferring risk,seeking innovation and having strong learning and cognition ability may select high-level supply-demand matching state,and the farmers understanding the importance and difference of seed technology tend to choose high-level supply-demand matching situation;the farmers with strong learning and cognition ability can acknowledge the importance and difference of seed technology,while the farmers preferring risk can perceive the difference of seed technology;psychology seeking the innovation and learning and cognition ability affect the farmer's perception on supplydemand matching status of new variety via affecting the farmer's cognition on technical difference.

Return Contract of Supply Chain with Fuzzy Continuous Demand

In a two-stage supply chain composed of one supplier and one retailer,the supply chain coordination mechanism in a fuzzy continuous demand environment is researched.A positive triangular fuzzy number is used to model the external market demand.Using the method of fuzzy cut sets theory,both fuzzy decentralized and centralized decision-making processes are analyzed,and another model of fuzzy return contract is proposed to help coordinate such supply chain.It is shown that in fuzzy environment there exists a unique solution of the retailer＇s optimal order quantity,the double marginalization problem can be solved by providing different tactics for wholesale pricing and return pricing,and the fuzzy expected profit of each actor can be expected to improve in the return contract.Finally,a numerical example is given to illustrate the models and the solution-seeking process.

Planned Parenthood: Supply Induced Demand for Abortion in the US

The rate and number of induced abortions in the US has declined steadily for nearly three decades. In contrast to this overall reduction, Planned Parenthood Federation of America abortion providers exhibit a persistent increase in both abortions and their market share percentage of total abortion procedures. For the period 1995-2014, estimated annual and cumulative excess abortions are calculated (Planned Parenthood Abortion Inflation Effect—PPAIE) to indicate the number of abortions which would have been averted if the PP utilization experience had been identical to that of Non-PP abortion providers. PP excess abortions grew steadily each year from 21,000 in 1996 to 258,200 in 2014, 28% of total abortions that year. The cumulative number of abortions added by the PPAIE from 1995-2014 was 3,025,560 or 12.5% of the 24,112,600 performed. Planned Parenthood has had a long-term and accelerating inflationary effect on the incidence and prevalence of abortion in the US.

Low Carbon Economic Dispatch of Integrated Energy System Considering Power Supply Reliability and Integrated Demand Response

Integrated energy system optimization scheduling can improve energy efficiency and low carbon economy.This paper studies an electric-gas-heat integrated energy system,including the carbon capture system,energy coupling equipment,and renewable energy.An energy scheduling strategy based on deep reinforcement learning is proposed to minimize operation cost,carbon emission and enhance the power supply reliability.Firstly,the lowcarbon mathematical model of combined thermal and power unit,carbon capture system and power to gas unit(CCP)is established.Subsequently,we establish a low carbon multi-objective optimization model considering system operation cost,carbon emissions cost,integrated demand response,wind and photovoltaic curtailment,and load shedding costs.Furthermore,considering the intermittency of wind power generation and the flexibility of load demand,the low carbon economic dispatch problem is modeled as a Markov decision process.The twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient(TD3)algorithm is used to solve the complex scheduling problem.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in the simulation case studies.Compared with TD3,SAC,A3C,DDPG and DQN algorithms,the operating cost is reduced by 8.6%,4.3%,6.1%and 8.0%.

Operation Strategy and Matching of Supply and Demand of CCHP System with Various Building Types

The important indications for assessing CCHP(combined cooling,heating and power)systems are their supply-demand matching characteristics between the user demand side and the energy supply side.These characteristics are primarily influenced by different building types and operating strategies.In view of the energy redundancy of the following electric load(FEL)and following thermal load(FTL)operation strategies and the energy deficiency of the following hybrid electric-heating load(FHL)operation strategy,this paper proposes an improved following balanced heat-electrical load(IFBL)operation strategy based on the following balanced heat-electrical load(FBL)operation strategy.Based on the energy utilization rate as the objective function,this paper optimizes the installed capacity of CCHP systems in different buildings and proposes an energy factor for evaluating the supply-demand matching characteristics of the system.The results show that the energy utilization rate and energy factor of the system under IFBL are optimal relative to the other operation strategies.Secondly,the hotel building has the highest energy utilization rate and the lowest energy factor;on the contrary,the office building has the lowest energy utilization rate and the highest energy factor.Finally,the analysis of supply-demand matching for different building types under multiple operating strategies shows that the hospital and hotel systems exhibit optimal supply-demand matching performance under the IFBL strategy,with values of 0.945 and 0.938,respectively;on the contrary,the office system has an optimal supply-demand matching of 0.935 under the FEL strategy.Under the FTL strategy,the systems of all three buildings exhibit poor matching performance.

Quantitative assessment of the supply,demand and flows of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin,China

Ecosystem service flow is essential for transporting,transforming,and maintaining ecosystem services and connecting supply and demand.This study attempted to quantitatively assess the supply and demand flows of ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin in 2000,2010,and 2020;assess the evolution of the spatial patterns of ecosystem service flow at the provincial,watershed and urban agglomeration scales;and design a zoning standard for ecosystem service flow.The results showed as follows.1)Between 2000 and 2020,the Yangtze River had a progressive drop in its freshwater supply,water conservation service and carbon sequestration service flows.The decline rates for these services were measured at 10.90%,11.11%,and 5.17%,respectively.The climate regulation service flow exhibited a pattern of initial fall followed by a subsequent increase,characterized by a decline rate of 35.53%.2)The lowest was the ecosystem service flow in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.Freshwater supply service flow and water conservation service flow were the highest in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.Carbon sequestration service flow and climate regulation service flow were the highest in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.3)From 2000 to 2020,the change ratios of the area proportion of the confluence,flow,and outflow areas in the Yangtze River Basin were 1.06,3.17,and 0.86,respectively.The results of this research could offer decision support for regulating ecosystem services in the Yangtze River Basin,promoting sustainable regional development and achieving rational use of the basin resources.

Status, trends and enlightenment of global oil and gas development in 2021

By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.

Rethinking China's Macroeconomic Policy

Six years have passed since the global financial crisis began.Yet,mainstream economists are still far from reaching a consensus on a framework for restructuring macroeconomic policy.In April 2013,many top scholars attended the International Monetary Fund's(IMF) second conference on "Rethinking Macro Policy".During the conference,the following basic assessments with respect to macroeconomic policy were reached:economists and policy-makers have entered a "brave new world" where they face more problems than effective solutions and the image of a new macroeconomic policy framework remains opaque.Based on discussions at the conference and the dissertations of important scholars over recent years,this paper provides a systematic review of the reflections of mainstream economic academia regarding the restructuring of a macroeconomic policy framework,with a view to providing an orientation to China s ongoing reform of macroeconomic regulation.

Open Innovation and New Mechanism of Market-Based Technology Diffusion from MNCs

The international community has blamed developing countries for the lack of intellectual property rights(IPR)protection-not least the“forced technology transfers”-in attracting foreign direct investment(FDI).This paper employs the largesample contract data of multinational companies’(MNCs)IT R&D transactions in China to discuss this controversy from a unique perspective of MNCs in the role of contractors.Our findings suggest that MNCs initially guarded their know-how before the 2000s under closed innovation,but have started to take the initiative to transfer technology to local partners as open innovation held sway.China’s structured market entities and huge demand for technology transactions have served as key drivers for MNCs to transfer technology,which has been further boosted by the new business model of open innovation.This paper’s empirical analysis not only helps unravel the“black box”of technology transfers by MNCs,but reveals how late-moving developing countries may make better use of FDI referencing China’s experience on the three dimensions of market opportunities,structured entities,and economies of scale.

面向治理现代化的公共服务理论思考:内涵、要求与路径

公共服务作为保障国家和社会良好运行的物质载体,逐渐成为现代国家治理的合法性基础。面对人民群众需求层次提升的现实要求和推进治理现代化的时代使命,公共服务被赋予新的内涵和要求。而这种变化的具体要求和表现以及由此对公共服务供给方式带来的挑战,并没有在当前的研究中得到充分讨论。新时期公共服务现代化的要求在于实现服务配置的公平正义、服务供给的可持续性和服务供需的有效匹配。因此,有必要基于公共服务在内容体系、供给侧和需求侧的变化,结合公共服务供给的基本过程,构建理解治理现代化下公共服务发展要求的分析框架,重新思考公共服务的供给方式,提出公共服务的空间路径、财政路径和技术路径。一是科学配置有限的资源,优化空间功能与设施布局,重构公共服务的空间结构和空间秩序,以空间资源配置回应空间正义。二是明晰政府、市场和社会等主体的责权关系和角色,完善层级政府间的财政制度设计,以财政治理促进可持续发展。三是通过打造数字化的公共服务场景,利用数字技术优化公共服务需求识别和反馈机制,以技术赋能实现供需有效匹配。

Design and error estimates of cut tobacco feeding by wind system

The cut tobacco transporting is the absolutely necessarily important tache, Whether the transportation process stability is a direct impact on production quality and manufacturing standards. The wind system is adopted by most tobacco companies because of it caused least disruptive of the cut tobacco structure and the pipe network layout of system is flexible, but the wind system is greater influence by itself, different control methods are caused greater difference of process indicators, for example essence and spice ingredients, moisture proportion and smoke flavor. Based on the above reasons, so we need to design the control method of wind system necessarily, in addition we must checkout the control accuracy opportunely, so that it is satisfied by the actual working conditions.

我国养老服务产业优化发展策略研究

我国正处在人口老龄化进程加速发展的关键期,对养老服务产业提出了庞大需求。文章探索养老服务产业发展的优化策略,为政府决策提供现实依据。通过实地调研、访谈等方式调查国内养老服务产业的需求和供给现状,查找养老服务产业发展过程中的难点,结合对美国、澳大利亚、日本和德国等国家养老服务产业的文献分析,总结其成功的经验。基于上述分析研究,提出增加制度供给引导行业有序发展、鼓励参与主体公平竞争、建立多渠道筹资机制、探索长期护理保险制度、完善养老服务服务人才培养体系、建立资格准入制度、搭建人才发展平台等方面提出具体对策。

电商政策的数字化效应:作用机制与双重溢出

迅猛发展的电子商务在数字经济催化下日益彰显出其对企业数字化转型的内生驱动力。以国家电子商务示范城市建设作为准自然实验,探讨国家电子商务示范城市试点政策对企业数字化转型的影响。研究表明:国家电子商务示范城市试点政策显著提高了企业数字化转型水平,该结论在一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;试点政策对中小企业、产业链下游企业、市场潜能高和政府财政赤字低的城市中的企业影响更为明显。成本效应、供需匹配效应、生产性服务业集聚效应与政府注意力分配效应是关键的中间作用机制。试点政策带动了消费互联网的发展,并使其与工业互联网建设产生协同效应,推动企业数字化转型。进一步分析表明,试点政策在电子商务发展较弱的地区主要表现出辐射带动的空间溢出效应,并通过产业链溢出效应促进了上游企业的数字化转型。研究结论为进一步优化电商政策的制定、促进企业高质量发展提供了政策启示。

2023年中国天然气调峰特性及2024年市场供需展望

为了助推天然气在中国新型能源体系建设中发挥更大的作用,回顾了2023年中国天然气市场调峰需求的主要特点,展望了2024年中国天然气市场的发展趋势。研究结果表明:(1)2023年,中国天然气供需总体宽松,天然气季节性调峰量为212×10^(8)m^(3),占该年全国天然气消费总量的5.4%,较2022年有所下滑;(2)2023年中国高月天然气不均匀系数为1.34,低月不均匀系数为0.85,月峰谷比为1.57,消费量月度波动幅度在年初市场异常和淡季需求量增长的影响下有所收窄;(3)2023年中国高峰天然气日消费量在历史性寒潮的刺激下直线攀升,峰值达到15.7×10^(8)m^(3)/d,同比增长18.9%;(4)城市燃气和发电用气成为2023年中国天然气调峰需求的主力,工业燃料和化工原料用气在一定程度上平抑了天然气消费量的季节性波动;(5)2023年中国储气设施顶峰能力再上新台阶,经营品种更加丰富;(6)在诸多有利条件叠加的情景下,预计2024年中国天然气需求量将有望达到4264×10^(8)m^(3),同比增长8.8%,新增需求量以工业燃料和发电用气为主;(7)2024年中国天然气调峰需求量预计为227×10^(8)m^(3),同比增长7.0%;(8)预计2024年中国天然气供应能力增长将超过需求量增长,整体上继续保持供应宽松的格局,并且在积极情景下LNG现货需求将保持旺盛;(9)建议国内天然气进口企业高度关注国际市场供应侧风险,销售企业提前做好冬季资源储备,城市燃气企业利用改革红利及时补齐相关短板,设施经营企业积极拓展市场化经营模式。

水源供给服务供需流空间不匹配特征识别及优化

如何识别水源供给服务在自然-人类社会系统中的空间流动过程和匹配特征,对于区域水资源管理和可持续利用具有重要意义。以重庆市为研究区域,基于InVEST模型和社会经济发展视角定量评估流域尺度下的水源供给量和需水量,结合水资源安全指数和热点分析构建水源供给服务流模型,揭示水源供给服务供需空间匹配关系,依据水源供给服务流空间属性特征划分供需匹配关系的区域类型,借助地理探测器从自然、社会和生态三个角度讨论影响各区域类型水源供给服务供需匹配关系的影响因素。结果表明:(1) 2000、2010、2020年重庆市流域水源供给量与需水量均先减少后上升,供需比平均值分别为1.17、1.08、0.9,整体供需不匹配的问题逐渐得到缓解,但局部仍有供需不匹配现象。空间上中高度赤字区域集中在主城区内,向外辐射为轻度赤字区域,盈余区域分布在东北和东南方向。(2) 2000、2010、2020年重庆市水源供需比冷、热点范围均在缩小,流域面积分别相对减少了25.34%、9.2%。水源供给服务流空间上整体呈现出自东北、东南方向向西流动的路径,同时冷点区内部呈边缘向中心流动。(3)汇流区集中在西北部,经流区位于中部,外流区集中在东南和与东北部。影响汇流区供需匹配关系的主导因素是蒸散发,解释力为74.08%;影响经流区的主导因素是第三产业GDP,解释力为51.44%;外流区各影响因子的解释力均较低。不同影响因子之间蒸散发与其它因素的交互作用显著增强。研究可以为重庆市自然资源的管理与流域生态补偿机制的建立提供科学依据。

企业数字化转型与供应链韧性

数字化转型正逐渐成为驱动供应链转型升级的新引擎,如何利用数字化转型提高供应链韧性是当前亟需研究的现实问题,但尚未有文献对此提供直接的经验证据。文章在构建供应链韧性指标基础上,基于2007—2022年A股上市企业面板数据,检验了企业数字化转型对供应链韧性的影响及其传导机制。研究结果表明,企业数字化转型可以显著促进供应链韧性提升。解构供应链韧性后发现,企业数字化转型可以提高供应链抵抗力和供应链恢复力,且对供应链恢复力的影响更显著。从传导机制看,企业数字化转型通过推动供应链多元化配置和优化供需匹配两个渠道促进供应链韧性提升。异质性分析表明,对于环境不确定性高、内部控制水平低企业,以及位于产业链下游和市场化水平低地区,企业数字化转型对供应链韧性的助推作用更加显著。进一步研究发现,数字化转型促进供应链韧性提升并未造成企业经济绩效损失,而是持续推动企业经济表现;“链主”企业和供应链政策在数字化转型提高供应链韧性过程中发挥一定的正向激励作用。文章不仅为系统理解企业数字化转型与供应链韧性的关系提供了新的分析视角,也为打造数字供应链和畅通国民经济循环提供了政策启示。

2023年中国成品油行业运行特点与近期展望

2023年,中国炼油产能再创新高,炼厂开工率回升,成品油产量大幅增长;成品油消费恢复至疫情前水平,不同品种恢复节奏存在差异,航空煤油消费明显恢复;成品油消费结构变化明显,供需差量扩大;在国际原油价格高位宽幅震荡背景下,成品油批发价格小幅增长;成品油商业库存“汽跌柴涨”,油库建设需求旺盛;成品油进口大幅下降,俄罗斯成为中国成品油进口主要来源国,成品油出口量继续增加,主要出口至新加坡;多项市场专项整治方案出台,规范成品油市场运行,推动行业高质量发展。2024年,中国成品油市场监管仍将持续完善,炼油行业将继续扩能,成品油产量将继续增长,成品油消费将回归低速增长通道,国际原油价格将宽幅震荡加剧成品油市场价格波动风险。

把握数字消费高质量发展的着力点

推进经济高质量发展必须构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用。数字经济快速发展,引发居民消费发生巨大变革,在消费主体、消费客体和消费环境方面,数字消费都呈现出典型的新特征。数字消费有助于提升消费需求、有助于推动产业结构升级、有助于促进供需匹配。应着力于消除城乡消费差距过大、推进新型基础设施建设、培育供需匹配创新动力和推进数字消费治理升级等多个方面,助推数字消费高质量发展,加快构建双循环新发展格局。