The Extreme Machine Learning Actuarial Intelligent Agricultural Insurance Based Automated Underwriting Model

The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.

Obstacles and Countermeasures for Policyoriented Agricultural Insurance Development in the Context of Agricultural Modernization

Agricultural insurance is a key impetus for agricultural modernization. How- ever, there are some problems on the aspect, including deficiency of law supports and top system design, less recognition on insurance of farmers and low effective demands of agricultural insurance market, huge agricultural risks and insufficient supply from agricultural insurance market, and shortage of reinsurance support and disaster risk desertification, hardly to deal with heavy disasters. Therefore, some countermeasures were proposed, including to formulate agricultural insurance laws and establish specific agricultural insurance management institutions, to reinforce promotion and improve premium subsidy system in order to increase market de- mands, to increase tax preference and operating costs, improve insurance services and enhance effective supply in market and to construct a risk diversification system of agricultural heavy disaster.

Crop Insurance, Premium Subsidy and Agricultural Output

This paper studied the effects of crop insurance on agricultural output with an economic growth model. Based on Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans （RCK） model, a basic model of agriculture economic growth was developed. Extending the basic model to incorporate uncertainty and insurance mechanism, a risk model and a risk-insurance model were built to study the inlfuences of risk and crop insurance on agricultural output. Compared with the steady states of the three models, the following results are achieved：（i） agricultural output decreases if we introduce uncertainty into the risk-free model;（ii） crop insurance promotes agriculture economic growth if insurance mechanism is introduced into the risk model;（iii） premium subsidy constantly improves agricultural output. Our contribution is that we studied the effects of crop insurance and premium subsidy from the perspective of economic growth in a dynamic framework, and proved the output promotion of crop insurance theoretically.

Farmers using insurance and cooperatives to manage agricultural risks: A case study of the swine industry in China

Purchasing agricultural insurance and joining agricultural cooperatives are two prevalent instruments used by farmers in China for dealing with agricultural risks. Data from 443 swine farmers in Jiangsu and Henan provinces of China were collected. Factors affecting the farmers’ decision to purchase agricultural insurance and join agricultural cooperatives were assessed. The possibility of simultaneous use of both instruments and the potential correlation between these two decisions was considered as well. Results showed that the farmers’ decision to use agricultural insurance and cooperatives was positively correlated, indicating that farmers who purchased agricultural insurance which mainly used to mitigate production risks were more likely to join agricultural cooperatives which more used to share market risks, and vice versa. Farmers’ knowledge of swine insurance and trust in the local government positively impacted the purchase of agricultural insurance, while education, years involved in swine production and scale of swine production positively impacted farmers joining agricultural cooperatives.

Potato farmers’ preference for agricultural insurance in China: An investigation using the choice experimental method

Potato insurance plays an important role in transferring agricultural risks to promote the potato staple strategy. Understanding farmers’ real preferences for potato insurance attributes is important to improve the potato insurance. In this study, a choice experiment was designed with attributes such as peril, minimum compensation ratio for production loss, types of crops covered by insurance, annual premium per mu after subsidy, and complexity of claims procedures. We constructed a mixed logit model based on a questionnaire survey of 362 potato farmers’ choices of insurance attributes from 24 villages in Dingxi City of Gansu Province using random sampling. The results show that:(1) farmers prefer agricultural insurance with widely perils including output price drop and input cost risk;(2) farmers who have suffered plant disease and insect and pest damage are willing to pay a high premium for the insurance with a high compensation ratio and several types of crops covered;full-time farmers and large-scale farmers preferred insurance products with low complexity of claims procedures. Therefore, new potato insurance design could be considered specifically for different farmer groups such as those who had previous disaster experiences, and large-or small-scale farm operations.

Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on vegetable production and countermeasures from an agricultural insurance perspective

In the face of the corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,it is essential to stabilize the security of urban“shopping baskets”.Through a survey and interviews with 46 agricultural cooperatives in Shanghai,this paper analyzes the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and offers suggestions on agricultural insurance.The research results show that:(1)the pandemic has impacted almost all stages of the vegetable supply chain but has had a greater impact on the sales stage;(2)the market risks of vegetable production have increased significantly,and the gap between the field price and the market price has widened.The sales price difference between traditional channels and e-commerce is notable;(3)farmers’incomes have generally declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic,and traditional small-scale farmers have suffered more losses;and(4)agricultural insurance plays an important role in stabilizing the supply of vegetables to the city.To minimize the impact of the pandemic on vegetable production and to stabilize both urban“shopping baskets”and farmers’incomes,it is necessary to further improve agricultural insurance,especially to provide insurance against market risks.

The Development Model of Agricultural Insurance in Anhui Province

The agricultural economy in Anhui Province is developing so fast,but farmers are severely affected by the frequent occurrence of natural disasters. The current agricultural insurance mode is not suitable,therefore,the research on agricultural insurance modes of Anhui Province helps to promote the steady development of the agricultural production. Starting from situation of agricultural insurance in Anhui Province,learning from both experience of foreign country and the latest successful domestic modes,we try to put forward agricultural insurance mode framework which is suitable for Anhui Province. Based on the actual situation of Anhui Province,it is necessary to adopt the mode of government leading combined with agricultural mutual aid rather than copy the existing mode.

Research on Dynamic Relationship between Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Disaster Degree

Agricultural insurance is an important system of rural financial support for agricultural development.Based on the analysis of agricultural insurance improving farmers'anti-risk ability and reducing the damage,the dynamic relationship is discussed with the adoption of error correction model and the data of Guangdong province between 1997 and 2010.The result shows that the promotion of agricultural insurance depth is beneficial to reducing agricultural damage degree and there exists long-term equilibrium relationship.More precisely,agricultural insurance depth is the Granger reason of agricultural damage degree while the reverse relationship has not been supported yet.Based on the empirical analysis,this paper discusses the characteristics and foundation of agricultural production as well as market characteristics of agricultural insurance to further explore the necessity of financial support.

Strategies for Development of Shaanxi's Agricultural Insurance Industry

This paper introduces current situations of agricultural insurance market in Shaanxi Province. It is indicated that development of Shaanxi's agricultural insurance industry is faced with following difficulties. First, risks of agricultural production are various, occurrence frequency is high and losses are great. Second, effective supply of commercial insurance companies for agriculture is seriously inadequate. Third, farmers' demand for agricultural insurance is restricted by many factors. Fourth, government support for agricultural insurance is not generous. Then, it puts forward strategies for development of agricultural insurance in Shaanxi Province. These include: encourage commercial insurance companies to actively enter agricultural insurance market; establish perfect agricultural reinsurance system; strengthen propaganda of agricultural insurance and speed up agricultural industrialization; enhance policy support for agricultural insurance to promote its development.

Review of Agricultural Insurance Development in the New Period in China

Agricultural insurance is a great support for agricultural modernization in the new period. It plays a role of " stabilizer" in consecutive increase of yield and constant increase of farmers' income. This paper elaborated current situation of agricultural insurance development in China in the new period,analyzed existing problems,and came up with pertinent recommendations.

Bootstrap Simulation Study on Cooperation between Agricultural Insurance and Agricultural Credit

The economic compensation function of agricultural insurance can reduce the credit default risk of farmers. Therefore,the cooperative development of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit is an inevitable trend for the development of rural financial services. In this paper,the annual time series data of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in 1994-2013 were used to carry out bootstrap simulation based Granger causality test and make the impulse response analysis. Results indicate that based on the Granger causality test of the whole samples( 1994-2013),there is no Granger causality relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit; based on the test of sub-samples( 2002-2013),there is a two-way Granger causality relationship between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit,the rapid development of agricultural insurance brings about structural changes in agricultural credit; agricultural credit has a positive effect on agricultural insurance,and agricultural insurance has a greater effect on agricultural credit. Finally,it came up with policy recommendations for the cooperative development of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit.

Theory and Model of Agricultural Insurance Subsidy

The issue of agricultural insurance subsidy is discussed in this paper aiming to make it provided more rationally and sci- entifically. It is started with the connection between agricultural insurance and financial subsidy. It is really necessary and crucial to implement the financial insurance due to the bad operational performance, especially in the developing countries. But the sub- sidy should be provided more rationally because financial subsidy has lots of negative effects. A model in competitive insurance markets developed by Ahsan et al (1982) and a farmers' decision model are developed to solve the optimal subsidized rate. Finally, the equation is got to calculate it. But a quantitative subsidized rate is not made here because the calculation should be under some restricted conditions, which are always absent in the devel- oping countries. So the government should provide some subsidy for the ex ante research and preparation to get the scientific prob- ability and premium rate.

China's Agricultural Insurance is Catching Up

China’s agricultural insurance premium,which experienced a sharp annual increase of27.4%to RMB30.7 billion,only represented about0.5%of Chinese agricultural GDP in2013.China is one of the largest agricultural economies globally.According to the Statistics Reoort for 2013published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in February 2014and data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,by the end of 2013,China’s cereal,cotton,meat and aquatic production reached 601.9 million tons,6.3 million tons,85.4 million tons and 61.7 million tons,representing 23%,25%,28%and37%of the world’s annual production respectively.As of the end of 2013,the number of people employed by the agricultural sector was approximately241.7 million,or 31.4%of China’s total work force.China is among the few countries most affected by natural disasters to which agricultural sector is particularly venerable.

Reasons and Improving Strategies of Slow Development of Agricultural Insurance System in China

In order to establish modern agriculture and reduce harmful effects of natural disasters to agriculture, developing agricultural insurance and improving agricultural management system are essential. This paper firstly elaborated the feasibility and importance of improving agricultural economy, and analyzed some reasons which restricted China agricultural insurance developing speed, and then gave some improving suggestions in the end.

Effects of Agricultural Insurance on Poverty Alleviation under Uncertain Price of Agricultural Products

Poverty alleviation of the rural poor is the most arduous task in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects in China, and agricultural insurance is an important financial tool for this task. Due to different capital levels, individual farmer will adopt production technology with different efficiency. In the case of uncertain price of agricultural products, this paper establishes a series of multiple equilibrium models based on agricultural risk and agricultural insurance. Under the catastrophe risk, the probability of falling into the poverty trap is calculated, and the effects of agricultural insurance on poverty alleviation are discussed respectively. It is found that agricultural insurance can effectively reduce the probability of falling into the poverty trap for the farmers whose initial capital is greater than a certain critical value. While the government subsidizes the premium of agricultural insurance by a certain proportion, the effect on poverty alleviation will be further improved.

Setting of Agricultural Insurance Premium Rate and the Adjustment Model

First,using the law of large numbers,I analyze the setting principle of agricultural insurance premium rate,and take the case of setting of adult sow premium rate for study,to draw the conclusion that with the continuous promotion of agricultural insurance,increase in the types of agricultural insurance and increase in the number of the insured,the premium rate should also be adjusted opportunely.Then,on the basis of Bayes' theorem,I adjust and calibrate the claim frequency and the average claim,in order to correctly adjust agricultural insurance premium rate;take the case of forest insurance for premium rate adjustment analysis.In setting and adjustment of agricultural insurance premium rate,in order to make the expected results well close to the real results,it is necessary to apply the probability estimates in a large number of risk units;focus on the establishment of agricultural risk database,to timely adjust agricultural insurance premium rate.

Research on Interactive Relationship between Agricultural Insurance and Rural Financial Development in Central and Western Regions

By selecting the panel data from 2001 to 2008 in central and western regions,I adopt the methods of covariance analysis test,Hausman test,panel unit root test and co-integration test to conduct empirical research on the interactive relationship between agricultural insurance and rural financial development in central and western regions.The results show that there is a long-term balanced and interactive causal relationship between agricultural insurance and rural financial development in central and western regions.The agricultural insurance in western regions is the cause of rural financial development,while such relationship in central regions is not tenable.There is an interactive promotion relationship between agricultural insurance and rural financial development efficiency in central regions,while the relationship between agricultural insurance and rural financial development efficiency in western regions is mutually inhibitive,but the rural financial efficiency in western regions promotes the development of agricultural insurance.Then corresponding suggestions are put forward in order to give full play to the role of mutual promotion between agricultural insurance and rural financial development as follows:reinforce the support degree for policy finance in central and western regions;increase the inputs of rural financial institutions in serving agriculture,countryside and farmers;expand the types and coverage of policy agricultural insurance.

Factors that Affect Farmers' Behaviors on Participating in Policy-Oriented Agricultural Insurance in the Pilot Area——A Case of Insurance on Apple in Luochuan County,Shaanxi Province

Taking Luochuan County of Shaanxi Province as an example,the factors that affect farmers' behaviors on participating in insurance is analyzed and evaluated according to the questionnaires and by selecting the indexes covering household features,agricultural production risks,the attitudes of rural households towards risks and the transaction cost of participating insurance and by using Logistic regression model.The results show that comparing with insurance company,the government has larger influence on farmers' behaviors on participating insurance;the premium of agricultural insurance does not obstruct farmers' participation in insurance;the bad-handled relations between the government and insurance company have bad effects on the development of local agricultural insurance.In order to promote farmers to participate in agricultural insurance,the relevant countermeasures are put forward:firstly,increasing the investment on rural education and improving cultural level of farmers;secondly,intensifying the promotion on agricultural insurance;thirdly,reasonably planning the duties and rights of the government and the insurance company;fourthly,vigorously encouraging the farmers to conduct scale production of apple and form the scale economy.

The Application and Modification of Delegation-Agent Model in Agricultural Insurance

The delegation-agent models in agricultural insurance are established both under the circumstances of information symmetry and information asymmetry.Insurers choose effort level-a* according to the first order optimal condition of ∫{v(π-s(π))+λ11[u(s(π))]fa(π,a*)}dπ=λ11c'(a*)u(s(π)) at the present stage when the information is symmetric.While the information is asymmetric,the first order optimal condition changed into v'(π-s(π))u'(s(π))=λ21+μ21(1-fa(π,a)f(π,a)).In other words,the higher the output,the more and more income of insured.The paper also modifies the models,when the information is symmetric,the insurers determine the effort level of insured-a* based on the first order optimal condition of ∫{v(π-s(π))+λ12[u(s(π))]fa(π,a*)}dπ=λ12h'(a*)u(s(π));to the contrary,the first order optimal condition would change into v'(π*-s(π*))u'(s(π*))=λ22+μ22(1-fa(π,a)f(π,a))-λh(a)f(π,a)-μh'(a)f(π,a).The results show that the insured and the insurers would both benefit from the insurance when the effort cost function related to the expectation of the insured(agricultural producers).If the insured manage the objects of insurance more seriously,the rate of disasters would be lowered.Therefore,the insurance claimed against the insured would be lessened,and the benefits of the insurers would be increased at last.

Researches on Agricultural Cooperative Economic Organization Promoting Agricultural Insurance Development

The advantages of cooperative economic organization being the effective carrier of agricultural insurance development are analyzed. Firstly, cooperative economic organization promotes scale management and solves the problem of decentralized operation of small households. Secondly, cooperative economic organization can settle the problem of peasants' low systematization. Thirdly, cooperative economic organization can largely reduce the costs of agricultural insurance operation. Fourthly, cooperative organization decreases moral risks as well as adverse selection to some extent. Lastly, cooperative organization, to a certain degree, reduces the risks of agricultural production and increases the insurability of agricultural risks. Meanwhile, limitations of agricultural cooperative economic organization being the carrier of agricultural insurance operation are pointed out. Firstly, cooperative economic organization has limited coverage and small size of organization, which is harmful to the diversification of agricultural risks. Secondly, cooperative economic organization lacks capital funds and its development is not standard, which is not perfect for the function exertion as a carrier. Lastly, members of professional cooperative organization have low cultural qualities, which restrict the implementation of agricultural insurance. The modes of farmers' cooperative economic organization promoting agricultural insurance development are proposed, including mode of agricultural insurance cooperative ( mutual corporation), mode of "leading enterprises (companies) + professional cooperative organization (planting majors) + insurance" and mode of professional cooperatives serving as agricultural insurance agent. Last of all, the promoting role of agricultural insurance in agricultural cooperative economic organization is briefly illustrated.