ON DE FINETTI'S OPTIMAL IMPULSE DIVIDEND CONTROL PROBLEM UNDER CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY

Motivated by recent advances made in the study of dividend control and risk management problems involving the U.S.bankruptcy code,in this paper we follow[44]to revisit the De Finetti dividend control problem under the reorganization process and the regulator's intervention documented in U.S.Chapter 11 bankruptcy.We do this by further accommodating the fixed transaction costs on dividends to imitate the real-world procedure of dividend payments.Incorporating the fixed transaction costs transforms the targeting optimal dividend problem into an impulse control problem rather than a singular control problem,and hence computations and proofs that are distinct from[44]are needed.To account for the financial stress that is due to the more subtle concept of Chapter 11 bankruptcy,the surplus process after dividends is driven by a piece-wise spectrally negative Lévy process with endogenous regime switching.Some explicit expressions of the expected net present values under a double barrier dividend strategy,new to the literature,are established in terms of scale functions.With the help of these expressions,we are able to characterize the optimal strategy among the set of admissible double barrier dividend strategies.When the tail of the Lévy measure is log-convex,this optimal double barrier dividend strategy is then verified as the optimal dividend strategy,solving our optimal impulse control problem.

Health expenditures and personal bankruptcies

Using household-level data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we estimate the extent to which medical expenses are responsible for driving households to bankruptcy. Our results suggest that an increase of 10 percent in medical debts would cause a 27 percent increase in the filing propensity of households with primarily medical debt, and an approximately 36 percent increase in filing propensity of households where medical debts co-exist with primarily credit card debts. Studying the post-bankruptcy scenario, we find that filers are 19 percent less likely to own a home even several years after the filing, compared to non-filers. However, the consequences are less adverse for medical filers i.e. those who filed due to high medical bills compared to other filers.

Incorporating Anglo-American Reorganization Provisions in Bankruptcy Law： A 10-year Lesson From Thailand

This paper examines the appropriateness of the adoption of Anglo-American type of reorganization provisions into national bankruptcy law using Thailand as a sample. It argues that such adoption shall be cautious. Since Thailand started to accommodate such provisions, reorganization, apparently, has limited usefulness--benefitting only large-scale debtors because it does not fit with the nature of Thai business culture, i.e., the borrowing-lending relationship and less-than-arm＇s length business connections. On average, only every one in 200 bankruptcy cases employs reorganization; the rest goes for liquidation but the average outstanding debt in reorganization is over 30 times higher than liquidation. Interestingly, the adjudication rate of reorganization is faster than those of liquidation. Debtors＇ strategic use of the law and the procedural bias are suspected. Debt restructuring led by the central bank in cooperation with commercial banks, instead, is overwhelmingly more successful, equally efficient, and effective because any ailing firm can renegotiate its borrowing contract rather easily in the low transaction cost environment. Debt restructuring outperformed reorganization roughly 800 and two times in terms of cases and debt amount respectively. Thus, the adoption of non-indigenous provisions shall be made prudently. This argument applies towards the standardization of insolvency legislation. Standardizing bankruptcy procedures shall be made carefully and national economic conditions including local business nature and uniqueness are worth examined before any enactment or amendment. Otherwise, benefits of international trade and investment would be achieved at the expense of economic efficiency.

Fixed Assets Valuation in the Condition of Bankruptcy Risk： The Role of Estimates

One of the most important issues relating to the economic activity of an enterprise is a reliable valuation of assets. It is also one of the key elements in the condition of bankruptcy risk. The aim of this paper is to present the results of the author＇s empirical research concerning the usefulness of the estimates in the valuation of fixed assets held by the enterprises facing bankruptcy. The empirical research was carried out on a group of 100 companies on which courts declared bankruptcy in 2011 in Poland. The study sample constitutes 14% of the population and is a significant representation of the phenomenon. For comparisons of the carrying amounts and the estimated values, the assets recognized in the balance sheet under ＂property, plant, and equipment （PPE）＂ were selected. During the first stage of the research, the significance of PPE in bankruptcy proceedings was confirmed by comparing the share of their value within the estate with the costs of the proceedings recorded as a percentage of the value of the debtor＇s estate. In the next stage of the research, comparisons between the carrying amounts and the estimated values were made. Simple regression models were constructed. The research results confirm that in the case of a substantial doubt about an entity＇s ability to continue as a going concern, the informative value of financial statements is limited and the estimates of the fixed assets value are of fundamental importance.

Bankruptcy Prediction for Chinese Firms： Comparing Data Mining Tools With Logit Analysis

China＇s capital market is different from that of the US in economic, political, and socio-cultural ways. China＇s dynamic and fast growing economy for the past decade entails some structural changes and weaknesses and as a consequence, there are some business failures. We propose bankruptcy prediction models using Chinese firm data via several data mining tools and traditional logit analysis. We used Chinese firm data one year prior to bankruptcy and our results suggest that the financial variables developed by Altman （1968） and Ohlson （1980） perform reasonably well in determining business failures of Chinese firms, but the overall prediction rate is low compared with those of the US or other countries＇ studies. The reasons for this low prediction rate may be structural weaknesses resulting from China＇s fast growth and immature capital market.

Economic Bankruptcy of the Industries in Mato Grosso,Brazil

Data from the Commercial Registry of the Mato Grosso State(JUCEMAT)indicate that the number of bankrupted industries exceeded 16 thousand between 2006 and 2016.This is a high number,to the point of questioning which particularities are related with the economic bankruptcy in the State.The objective of this study is precisely to analyse the profile of these industries that closed their activities in Mato Grosso,considering the estimated survival rate for the extraction and transformation segments.Also,based on the underlying indicators of factor analysis,the crucial factors for the economic bankruptcy of micro and small enterprises in the state are delineated.The main results point to the generalized consequences arising from the main economic crises,with more aggressive effects for the microenterprises of sand,gravel,and cobble extraction.Aggravated problems included also the food and logging industries,the main activities of the local economy,with more pronounced impacts in the South,Southeast,North and Central-North regions of Mato Grosso.The survival rate declined considerably between 2006 and 2008 and,despite recovery in the following period,it has not yet recovered its best performance.In the case of micro and small transformation industries,the results point to a group with limited managerial capacity and lack of strategic planning before the execution of the main stages of production and commercialization.

The Prediction of Bankruptcy in a Construction Industry of Russian Federation

The problem of the firm bankruptcy prediction was investigated by foreign researchers in the 1930s and it still remains relevant. Since the publishing of Altman＇s （1968） major work, based on multiple discriminant analysis （MDA）, this methodological area has considerably changed. Taking into consideration that new data have appeared in the course of time, companies＇ average size has changed, and the accounting standards have changed （Altman, Haldeman, ＆ Narayanan, 1977）, methods and models should be renewed so as to be appropriate for current situation. The purpose of this paper1 is to reveal factors causing bankruptcy and use models appropriate for prediction bankruptcy in the area of a construction industry during the financial crisis. This investigation has been carried out on the basis of logit and probit analysis. The main reasons of bankruptcy revealed in the course of this investigation are the following： （1） non-optimal capital structure formation; （2） ineffective liquidity management; （3） decrease in assets profitability; and （4） decrease in short-term assets turnover. The most reliable indicators which give warning of bankruptcy ahead of others are financial instability and liquidity ratios.

A Statistical Analysis of Reliability of Audit Opinions as Bankruptcy Predictors

This research measures the reliability of audit firms in predicting bankruptcy for United States （US） listed financial institutions. The object of analysis is the going concern opinion （GCO）, widely considered as a bankruptcy warning signal to stakeholders. The sample is composed of 42 US listed financial companies that filed for Chapter 11 between 1998 and 2011. To highlight the differences between bankrupting and healthy firms, a matching sample composed of 42 randomly picked healthy US listed financial companies is collected. We concentrate on financial institutions, whereas the existing literature pays considerably greater attention to the industrial sector. This research imbalance is remarkable and particularly unexpected in the wake of recent financial scandals. Literature points out two main approaches on bankruptcy prediction： （1） purely mathematical; and （2） approaches based on a combination of auditor knowledge, expertise, and experience. The use of data mining techniques allows us to benefit from the best features of both approaches. Statistical tools used in the analysis are： Logit regression, support vector machines （SVMs）, and an AdaBoost meta-algorithm. Findings show a quite low reliability of GCOs in predicting bankruptcy. It is likely that auditors consider further information in supporting their audit opinions, aside from financial-economic ratios. The scant predictive ability of auditors might be due to critical relationships with distressed clients, as suggested by recent literature.

Re-estimation and comparisons of alternative accounting based bankruptcy prediction models for Indian companies

Background:The suitability and performance of the bankruptcy prediction models is an empirical question.The aim of this paper is to develop a bankruptcy prediction model for Indian manufacturing companies on a sample of 208 companies consisting of an equal number of defaulted and non-defaulted firms.Out of 208 companies,130 are used for estimation sample,and 78 are holdout for model validation.The study reestimates the accounting based models such as Altman EI(Journal of Finance 23:19189-209,1968)Z-Score,Ohlson JA(Journal of Accounting Research 18:109-131,1980)Y-Score and Zmijewski ME(Journal of Accounting Research 22:59-82,1984)X-Score model.The paper compares original and re-estimated models to explore the sensitivity of these models towards the change in time periods and financial conditions.Methods:Multiple Discriminant Analysis(MDA)and Probit techniques are employed in the estimation of Z-Score and X-Score models,whereas Logit technique is employed in the estimation of Y-Score and the newly proposed models.The performance of all the original,re-estimated and new proposed models are assessed by predictive accuracy,significance of parameters,long-range accuracy,secondary sample and Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)tests.Results:The major findings of the study reveal that the overall predictive accuracy of all the three models improves on estimation and holdout sample when the coefficients are re-estimated.Amongst the contesting models,the new bankruptcy prediction model outperforms other models.Conclusions:The industry specific model should be developed with the new combinations of financial ratios to predict bankruptcy of the firms in a particular country.The study further suggests the coefficients of the models are sensitive to time periods and financial condition.Hence,researchers should be cautioned while choosing the models for bankruptcy prediction to recalculate the models by looking at the recent data in order to get higher predictive accuracy.

关于破产保护法律制度的若干思考

破产保护法律制度中存在的理念认识问题,导致对破产法律保护制度的功能和作用产生误解。必须清晰认识到破产保护法律制度对社会主义市场经济建设的重要性。建立和完善破产保护法律制度,可以补齐当前我国社会主义市场经济制度的短板,可以为市场在资源配置中发挥决定性作用搭建工作平台,可以通过挽救危困企业和其他市场主体,稳住我国当前经济发展的基本盘,推动我国经济高质量健康发展。因此,要贯彻落实习近平法治思想,建立和完善我国个人破产保护法律制度、非法人组织破产保护法律制度、管理人制度、府院联动协调制度、执行与破产协调制度等破产保护法律制度体系,加强破产保护法律文化建设,发挥破产制度的功效。

个人破产法的范畴厘定与误区纠偏

个人破产法之“个人”是与企业法人相对应的概念,个人破产法可以弥补我国破产法律体系之现有缺陷,但不宜再区分商自然人与消费者立法,而是应当采一般破产主义,制定统一适用于所有自然人的个人破产法。个人破产制度的发展经历了从破廉耻到破耻辱观的进步,但破产本身也非光彩之事,破产的结果或多或少应该给予有关方面一个教训而不是褒奖。个人破产程序不限于破产清算,还包括重整与破产和解程序,但破产清算与重整程序之间的差异在缩小,彼此在无意中有走向趋同的态势。破产免责已经成为现代个人破产法的标配,我们宜选择裁定许可免责而非自动免责的模式,同时,破产免责有着内在的“逃废债”规制和债务治理逻辑,并非所有债务人都能获得免责,也并非获得免责的债务人能够被免除所有负债。

Research on the Performance of Listed Companies＇ Bankruptcy Reorganization -Taking HULUDAO ZINC INDUSTRY CO.,LTD. as an Example

Bankruptcy Reorganization is a legal system to regenerate enterprises that meet the requirements of bankruptcy but have the ability to survive. Since the implementation of Bankruptcy law in 2007？to the end of 2016, there are already 75 listed companies in the bankruptcy reorganization process to rectify the operation. Bankruptcy Reorganization is becoming an important way for some enterprises to get rid of their difficulties. However, whether the enterprises after the bankruptcy reorganization can really get reborn is worth further study. This article uses HULUDAO ZINC INDUSTRY CO.,LTD. as an example, examines the financial performance and market performance of the company before and after the bankruptcy reorganization, and verifies the effect of the bankruptcy reorganization system in order to provide guidance and suggestions for improving the system of bankruptcy reorganization of the listed companies.

The Simple Math Error That Can Lead To Bankruptcy

Fifteen years ago,the people of Italy experienced a strange kind of mass hysteria known as"53 fever".The madness centered on the country’s lottery.Players can choose between 11 different wheels,based in cities such as Bari,Naples or Venice.Once you have picked which wheels to play,you can then bet on a selection of numbers between 1 and90.Your winnings depend on how much you initially bet,how many numbers you picked and how many you got right.Sometime in 2003,however,the number 53 simply stopped coming up on the Venice wheel-leading punters to place increasingly big bets on the number in the certainty that it must soon make a reappearance.By early 2005,53 fever had apparently led thousands to their financial ruin,the pain of which resulted in a spate of suicides.The hysteria only died away when it finally came up in the 9 February draw,after182 no-shows and four billion euros worth of bets.

中国实质合并破产制度的反思与重构

我国的实质合并破产制度形成了以“关联企业”为唯一主体的特色构造,造成因关联企业概念不明的制度适用难题、关联企业的社会污名以及无法满足其他类型企业破产需求的问题。在个人破产试行及《企业破产法》修订的契机下,实质合并破产的重构应当以“公平正义”为逻辑起点,在厘清“法人人格否认”和实质合并破产的界限之基础上,从“资产分割理论”的新视角分析,自始不存在资产分割或资产分割失效将导致拟合并实体丧失资产分割功能的庇护,即适用实质合并破产,以此为其他类型主体平等适用该制度提供可能性和理论基础。在适用主体上,应当选择“法律实体”的表述,贯彻谨慎适用的原则,以丧失财产独立性为基础标准,以债权人整体受益,兼顾信赖利益为合理性标准。

公司濒临破产时董事破产申请义务的立法建构

公司濒临破产时已经或者即将失去债务清偿能力,此时的经营风险将由股东向债权人进行转移。董事破产申请义务是助力债权人应对上述风险的重要支点,因为这一制度能够有效地遏制股东、董事以及债权人内部的机会主义行为,防止公司资产的持续恶化。在学理上,“直接义务论”和“间接义务论”都可以为其立法建构提供逻辑支持,前者强调当公司濒临破产时董事对债权人直接承担信义义务,后者则认为此时董事依然对公司整体承担信义义务,但是应在决策中重点考量债权人利益。从我国公司治理实践来看,也有推进该制度立法建构的现实需求,包括平衡认缴资本制对法定资本规则的弱化、弥补破产程序启动规制的不足、顺应董事会中心主义治理模式的发展以及填补公司法与破产法之间的制度缝隙等。无论是德国和奥地利对该制度的明确规定,还是美国的“加深破产理论”与英国的“不当交易条款”等功能性替代规定,都能够为我国的立法提供参考。就具体的本土方案而言,可以“直接义务论”为指引,将该制度嵌入破产法体系之中。同时,围绕董事破产申请义务触发条件的界定、董事破产申请义务启动主体构成边界的明晰、董事破产申请义务限制期限的规制、董事破产申请义务中重整程序的融入、董事违反破产申请义务的责任承担以及董事违反破产申请义务的债权人追诉机制等相关内容,建构系统化的具体规则。

个人破产立法中的观念转换与制度支撑

我国当前进行个人破产立法的关键问题之一,是需要大力转换传统个人破产观中的错误文化与观念,缓解、消除各方对个人破产法尤其是债务免责制度的误解,使个人破产立法得以顺利启动。在这一过程中,我们要对传统的个人破产观作出客观、全面、正确的评价,“取其精华,去其糟粕”,既要承认其合理之处,也要指明其错误之处,并以债务免责的具体制度释明破除对个人破产法的误解与顾虑。我国将建立的个人债务免责制度,不是对所有进入破产程序的债务人不加区分地一概免责,也不是对债务人所有的债务全部免责,更不是在破产程序结束或结束后满一定期间对债务自动免责。免责要有法院的审查和裁定许可,要设定一段监督债务人行为、持续清偿债务的良好行为考察期。同时对债权人的权益通过设置对债务免责的异议权、撤销权等制度予以充分保障。

企业ESG表现能否降低破产风险?

以2009—2021年中国A股上市公司为研究对象,分析企业ESG表现和破产风险的关系以及其作用机制,并依次从宏观、中观、微观视角展开异质性分析。研究发现,较好的ESG表现显著降低了企业破产风险。机制分析发现,企业提升ESG表现缓解了融资约束,同时提升了财务绩效,进而降低了企业破产风险。另外,企业数字化转型能够加强ESG表现对破产风险的抑制作用。进一步基于企业经营的宏观、中观、微观视角分析发现,ESG表现对破产风险的抑制效应具有普适性,但这一效果在低法治水平、低竞争程度、非国有企业、财务困境企业的组别中更加明显。研究结论有助于理解企业通过ESG战略进行风险管理的内在逻辑,为企业优化决策制定提供了经验参考。

自然人破产程序中的居住权问题审视与规范建议

居住权作为《民法典》中新出现的用益物权类型,现有相关配套规定尚不够具体和明晰,而且由于自身用益物权之特性,在破产程序中对债权的公平清偿和价值实现有一定影响。随着自然人破产制度的逐步推行,居住权与各类破产债权的冲突问题将更加凸显,妥善平衡债务人、债权人以及居住权人的利益是解决问题的关键。首先要明确居住权在破产程序中的存在形式和冲突类型,明确债权人、债务人和居住权人的诉求,通过完善居住权主体、客体的相关规定,丰富居住权概念,将社会性居住权和投资性居住权区分规定,多方充分协商,灵活处理不同类型居住权,力求最终实现居住权基本生活保障功能与破产法公平清偿目标的平衡。