In evolutionary games,most studies on finite populations have focused on a single updating mechanism.However,given the differences in individual cognition,individuals may change their strategies according to different...In evolutionary games,most studies on finite populations have focused on a single updating mechanism.However,given the differences in individual cognition,individuals may change their strategies according to different updating mechanisms.For this reason,we consider two different aspiration-driven updating mechanisms in structured populations:satisfied-stay unsatisfied shift(SSUS)and satisfied-cooperate unsatisfied defect(SCUD).To simulate the game player’s learning process,this paper improves the particle swarm optimization algorithm,which will be used to simulate the game player’s strategy selection,i.e.,population particle swarm optimization(PPSO)algorithms.We find that in the prisoner’s dilemma,the conditions that SSUS facilitates the evolution of cooperation do not enable cooperation to emerge.In contrast,SCUD conditions that promote the evolution of cooperation enable cooperation to emerge.In addition,the invasion of SCUD individuals helps promote cooperation among SSUS individuals.Simulated by the PPSO algorithm,the theoretical approximation results are found to be consistent with the trend of change in the simulation results.展开更多
The presence of the debris in the Earth’s orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space.This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches,the loss of external parts from space ships,an...The presence of the debris in the Earth’s orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space.This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches,the loss of external parts from space ships,and uncontrollable collisions between objects.A computationally feasible continuum model for the growth of the debris population and its spatial distribution is therefore critical.Here we propose a diffusion-collision model for the evolution of the debris density in the low-Earth orbit and its dependence on the ground-launch policy.We parametrize this model and test it against data from publicly available object catalogs to examine timescales for the uncontrolled growth.Finally,we consider sensible launch policies and cleanup strategies and how they reduce the future risk of collisions with active satellites or space ships.展开更多
Traumatic brain injury(TBI)is a public health problem with an undue economic burden that impacts nearly every age,ethnic,and gender group across the globe(Capizzi et al.,2020).TBIs are often sustained during a dynamic...Traumatic brain injury(TBI)is a public health problem with an undue economic burden that impacts nearly every age,ethnic,and gender group across the globe(Capizzi et al.,2020).TBIs are often sustained during a dynamic range of exposures to energetic environmental forces and as such outcomes are typically heterogeneous regarding severity and pathology(Capizzi et al.,2020).展开更多
Using Euler’s first-order explicit(EE)method and the peridynamic differential operator(PDDO)to discretize the time and internal crystal-size derivatives,respectively,the Euler’s first-order explicit method–peridyna...Using Euler’s first-order explicit(EE)method and the peridynamic differential operator(PDDO)to discretize the time and internal crystal-size derivatives,respectively,the Euler’s first-order explicit method–peridynamic differential operator(EE–PDDO)was obtained for solving the one-dimensional population balance equation in crystallization.Four different conditions during crystallization were studied:size-independent growth,sizedependent growth in a batch process,nucleation and size-independent growth,and nucleation and size-dependent growth in a continuous process.The high accuracy of the EE–PDDO method was confirmed by comparing it with the numerical results obtained using the second-order upwind and HR-van methods.The method is characterized by non-oscillation and high accuracy,especially in the discontinuous and sharp crystal size distribution.The stability of the EE–PDDO method,choice of weight function in the PDDO method,and optimal time step are also discussed.展开更多
The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura(Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integ...The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura(Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integrated pest management(IPM). Based on systematically investigating soybean aphid populations in the field from 2018 to 2020, this study adopted the inverse logistic model for the first time, and combined it with the classical logistic model to describe the changes in seasonal population abundance from colonization to extinction in the field. Then, the increasing and decreasing phases of the population fluctuation were divided by calculating the inflection points of the models, which exhibited distinct seasonal trends of the soybean aphid populations in each year. In addition, multifactor logistic models were then established for the first time, in which the abundance of soybean aphids in the field changed with time and relevant environmental conditions. This model enabled the prediction of instantaneous aphid abundance at a given time based on relevant meteorological data. Taken as a whole, the successful approaches implemented in this study could be used to build a theoretical framework for practical IPM strategies for controlling soybean aphids.展开更多
Propylea japonica(Coleoptera:Coccinellidae)is a natural enemy insect with a wide range of predation in Chinese mainland and is commonly used in pest management.However,its genetic pattern(i.e.,genetic variation,geneti...Propylea japonica(Coleoptera:Coccinellidae)is a natural enemy insect with a wide range of predation in Chinese mainland and is commonly used in pest management.However,its genetic pattern(i.e.,genetic variation,genetic structure,and historical population dynamics)is still unclear,impeding the development of biological control of insect pests.Population genetic research has the potential to optimize strategies at different stages of the biological control processes.This study used 23 nuclear microsatellite sites and mitochondrial COI genes to investigate the population genetics of Propylea japonica based on 462 specimens collected from 30 sampling sites in China.The microsatellite dataset showed a moderate level of genetic diversity,but the mitochondrial genes showed a high level of genetic diversity.Populations from the Yellow River basin were more genetically diverse than those in the Yangtze River basin.Propylea japonica has not yet formed a significant genealogical structure in China,but there was a population structure signal to some extent,which may be caused by frequent gene flow between populations.The species has experienced population expansion after a bottleneck,potentially thanks to the tri-trophic plant–insect–natural enemy relationship.Knowledge of population genetics is of importance in using predators to control pests.Our study complements existing knowledge of an important natural predator in agroecosystems through estimating its genetic diversity and population differentiation and speculating about historical dynamics.展开更多
This paper offers preliminary work on system dynamics and Data mining tools. It tries to understand the dynamics of carrying out large-scale events, such as Hajj. The study looks at a large, recurring problem as a var...This paper offers preliminary work on system dynamics and Data mining tools. It tries to understand the dynamics of carrying out large-scale events, such as Hajj. The study looks at a large, recurring problem as a variable to consider, such as how the flow of people changes over time as well as how location interacts with placement. The predicted data is analyzed using Vensim PLE 32 modeling software, GIS Arc Map 10.2.1, and AnyLogic 7.3.1 software regarding the potential placement of temporal service points, taking into consideration the three dynamic constraints and behavioral aspects: a large population, limitation in time, and space. This research proposes appropriate data analyses to ensure the optimal positioning of the service points with limited time and space for large-scale events. The conceptual framework would be the output of this study. Knowledge may be added to the insights based on the technique.展开更多
The population dynamics and breeding behaviors of Black-crowned Night Herons ( Nycticorax nycticorax ), Egrets (Egtetta garzetta), Chinese Pond Herons (Ardeola bacchus) and Great Egrets (Casmerodius albus) wer...The population dynamics and breeding behaviors of Black-crowned Night Herons ( Nycticorax nycticorax ), Egrets (Egtetta garzetta), Chinese Pond Herons (Ardeola bacchus) and Great Egrets (Casmerodius albus) were observed in Tanghai Wetlands, Hebei Province from August 2004 to July 2005. Further, we studied the relationship of nest space distribution and directly calculated the nest density of vertical and horizontal levels, the niche overlapping index and the niche breadth. The results showed that there were two breeding areas, named Area Ⅰ and Area Ⅱ . The maximum population occurred in the period from April to September and was approximately 5800 individuals. Area Ⅰ was occupied earlier than Area Ⅱ by approximately half a month. In the breeding period, Black-crowned Night Herons were dominant in numbers and most occupied the upper nests of the core areas. Great Egrets also took the upper nests but they have the smallest population. Most Egrets took the middle nests of the edges of the area. Chinese Pond Herons, with a smaller population than the Egret, mostly nested in the edges, but some of them also took the lower nests of the core area. On the whole, the vertical niche of Egrets is the widest, the horizontal niche of Black-crowned Night Herons is the widest and the niche breadth of Chinese Pond Herons is the largest. The nest distribution pattern is the most similar between Chinese Pond Herons and Black-crowned Night Herons, and the niche overlapping index of Chinese Pond Herons and Egrets is the largest. Black-crowned Night Herons and Great Egrets control Egrets and Chinese Pond Herons in competition. Rich food and the optimal ecological environments lead to plenty of herons in the wetlands. In addition, it is a distinguishing feature of the four species that nests are built in poplar trees over 22 m tall.展开更多
The effects of interspecific competition on the population dynamics of four insect grain Insecp pests ( Sitophilus zeamais, Rhizopertha dominica, Tribolium castaneum and Cryptolestes ferrugineus ) was studied at 30...The effects of interspecific competition on the population dynamics of four insect grain Insecp pests ( Sitophilus zeamais, Rhizopertha dominica, Tribolium castaneum and Cryptolestes ferrugineus ) was studied at 30℃, 75% relative humidity. A regression analysis of the population dynamics was conducted. The results showed that population growth of S. zeamais , R. dominica, T. castaneum and C. ferrugineus was restrained under mixed rearing. Population growth of T. castaneum and C. ferrugineus was remarkably accelerated when they coexisted with S. zeamais or R. dominica, while that of S. zeamais and R. dominica was restrained to some extent. Regression analysis results showed that the population growth potential of S. zeamais was the largest and that of C. ferrugineus was the smallest, and the changing trends of population growth rates were not distinct.展开更多
The spatial distribution and population dynamics of Quercus liaotungensis Koidz., Fraxinus rhynchophylla Hance and Acer mono Maxim. were studied in three warm temperate deciduous forests in Dongling Mountain, Beijing....The spatial distribution and population dynamics of Quercus liaotungensis Koidz., Fraxinus rhynchophylla Hance and Acer mono Maxim. were studied in three warm temperate deciduous forests in Dongling Mountain, Beijing. Clumped distributions appeared in most seedlings (≤0.4 m), short saplings (0.4-1 m) and tall saplings (1-2 m). Random distributions appeared in adults of Q. liaotungensis in Plot 1, F. rhynchophylla in Plot 3. The LSD method was used to discern the differences of different aged population. The class distribution of Q. liaotungensis was nearly a reverse-J shape for Plot 1 and Plot 3, suggesting that the population regenerates continuously. The age-structures of F. rhynchophylla and A. mono in Plot 1 and the test results indicated that they would increase continuously. In Plot 2, the class distribution and the test results showed that all populations would not regenerate continuously.展开更多
Here,we characterize the temporal and spatial dynamics of forest community structure and species diversity in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in China.We found that community structure in this forest chang...Here,we characterize the temporal and spatial dynamics of forest community structure and species diversity in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in China.We found that community structure in this forest changed over a 15-year period.Specifically,renewal and death of common species was large,with the renewal of individuals mainly concentrated within a few populations,especially those of Aidia canthioides and Cryptocarya concinna.The numbers of individual deaths for common species were concentrated in the small and mid-diameter level.The spatial distribution of community species diversity fluctuated in each monitoring period,showing a more dispersed diversity after the 15-year study period,and the coefficient of variation on quadrats increased.In 2010,the death and renewal of the community and the spatial variation of species diversity were different compared to other survey years.Extreme weather may have affected species regeneration and community stability in our subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forests.Our findings suggest that strengthening the monitoring and management of the forest community will help better understand the long-and short-term causes of dynamic fluctuations of community structure and species diversity,and reveal the factors that drive changes in community structure.展开更多
With increasing population and changing demographics,food consumption has experienced a significant transition in quantity and quality.However,a dearth of knowledge remains regarding its environmental impacts and how ...With increasing population and changing demographics,food consumption has experienced a significant transition in quantity and quality.However,a dearth of knowledge remains regarding its environmental impacts and how it responds to demographic dynamics,particularly in emerging economies like China.Using the two-stage Quadratic Almost Demand System(QUAIDS)model,this study empirically examines the impact of demographic dynamics on food consumption and its environmental outcomes based on the provincial data from 2000 to 2020 in China.Under various scenarios,according to changes in demographics,we extend our analysis to project the long-term trend of food consumption and its environmental impacts,including greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,water footprint(WF),and land appropriation(LA).The results reveal that an increase in the proportion of senior people significantly decreases the consumption of grain and livestock meat and increases the consumption of poultry,egg,and aquatic products,particularly for urban residents.Moreover,an increase in the proportion of males in the population leads to higher consumption of poultry and aquatic products.Correspondingly,in the current scenario of an increased aging population and sex ratio,it is anticipated that GHG emissions,WF,and LA are likely to decrease by 1.37,2.52,and 3.56%,respectively.More importantly,in the scenario adhering to the standards of nutritional intake according to the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents in 2022,GHG emissions,WF,and LA in urban areas would increase by 12.78,20.94,and 18.32%,respectively.Our findings suggest that changing demographics should be considered when designing policies to mitigate the diet-environment-health trilemma and achieve sustainable food consumption.展开更多
Determining the adsorption of shale gas on complex surfaces remains a challenge in molecular simulation studies.Difficulties essentially stem from the need to create a realistic shale structure model in terms of miner...Determining the adsorption of shale gas on complex surfaces remains a challenge in molecular simulation studies.Difficulties essentially stem from the need to create a realistic shale structure model in terms of mineral heterogeneityand multiplicity.Moreover,precise characterization of the competitive adsorption of hydrogen andmethane in shale generally requires the experimental determination of the related adsorptive capacity.In thisstudy,the adsorption of adsorbates,methane(CH_(4)),and hydrogen(H_(2))on heterogeneous shale surface modelsof Kaolinite,Orthoclase,Muscovite,Mica,C_(60),and Butane has been simulated in the frame of a moleculardynamic’s numerical technique.The results show that these behaviors are influenced by pressure and potentialenergy.On increasing the pressure from 500 to 2000 psi,the sorption effect for CH_(4)significantly increasesbut shows a decline at a certain stage(if compared to H_(2)).The research findings also indicate that raw shalehas a higher capacity to adsorb CH_(4)compared to hydrogen.However,in shale,this difference is negligible.展开更多
X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy(XPCS)has emerged as a powerful tool for probing the nanoscale dynamics of soft condensed matter and strongly correlated materials owing to its high spatial resolution and penetrat...X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy(XPCS)has emerged as a powerful tool for probing the nanoscale dynamics of soft condensed matter and strongly correlated materials owing to its high spatial resolution and penetration capabilities.This technique requires high brilliance and beam coherence,which are not directly available at modern synchrotron beamlines in China.To facilitate future XPCS experiments,we modified the optical setup of the newly commissioned BL10U1 USAXS beamline at the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility(SSRF).Subsequently,we performed XPCS measurements on silica suspensions in glycerol,which were opaque owing to their high concentrations.Images were collected using a high frame rate area detector.A comprehensive analysis was performed,yielding correlation functions and several key dynamic parameters.All the results were consistent with the theory of Brownian motion and demonstrated the feasibility of XPCS at SSRF.Finally,by carefully optimizing the setup and analyzing the algorithms,we achieved a time resolution of 2 ms,which enabled the characterization of millisecond dynamics in opaque systems.展开更多
Despite all efforts,long-term changes in the adult sex ratios of breeding duck populations are still unclear;this uncertainty is especially true for male-bias populations,which are often under the scrutiny of research...Despite all efforts,long-term changes in the adult sex ratios of breeding duck populations are still unclear;this uncertainty is especially true for male-bias populations,which are often under the scrutiny of researchers lacking convenient results for the active protection of endangered species.Species with male-bias populations are usually strongly affected by a decline in population size that leads to a higher extinction risk.In this study,we examined our long-term data of the abundance of breeding populations in six duck species(Mallard Anas platyrhynchos,Gadwall Mareca strepera,Red-crested Pochard Netta rufina,Common Pochard Aythya ferina,Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula,and Common Goldeneye Bucephala clangula)from fishponds in South Bohemia,Czechia,between 2004 and 2022.This evidence was used to assess long-term changes in the adult sex ratio in these breeding populations and investigate the possible effects of the NAO index(North Atlantic Oscillation index)on them,indicating climate conditions in winter.We determined a long-term decrease of the proportion of females in the breeding season in two of the six examined species:Common Pochard and Red-crested Pochard,which is driven by the long-term increase in the number of males in contrast to the decreasing or stable number of females likely caused by different migration behaviours between females and males.In the case of Common Pochard,in breeding populations,we estimated 60-65%of males in the early 2000s rising to 75-80%in the early 2020s.However,we establish no significant effects linked to climate conditions of the previous winter in these species as a crucial cause of the changes of the proportion of females in the breeding population.展开更多
BACKGROUND The association of single nucleotide polymorphism of KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)is currently controversial.It is unknown whether this association can be gene realized across dif...BACKGROUND The association of single nucleotide polymorphism of KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)is currently controversial.It is unknown whether this association can be gene realized across different populations.AIM To determine the association of KCNQ1 rs2237895 with T2DM and provide reliable evidence for genetic susceptibility to T2DM.METHODS We searched PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,Cochrane Library,Medline,Baidu Academic,China National Knowledge Infrastructure,China Biomedical Literature Database,and Wanfang to investigate the association between KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 and the risk of T2DM up to January 12,2022.Review Manager 5.4 was used to analyze the association of the KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 polymorphism with T2DM and to evaluate the publication bias of the selected literature.RESULTS Twelve case–control studies(including 11273 cases and 11654 controls)met our inclusion criteria.In the full population,allelic model[odds ratio(OR):1.19;95%confidence interval(95%CI):1.09–1.29;P<0.0001],recessive model(OR:1.20;95%CI:1.11–1.29;P<0.0001),dominant model(OR:1.27.95%CI:1.14–1.42;P<0.0001),and codominant model(OR:1.36;95%CI:1.15–1.60;P=0.0003)(OR:1.22;95%CI:1.10–1.36;P=0.0002)indicated that the KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 polymorphism was significantly correlated with susceptibility to T2DM.In stratified analysis,this association was confirmed in Asian populations:allelic model(OR:1.25;95%CI:1.13–1.37;P<0.0001),recessive model(OR:1.29;95%CI:1.11–1.49;P=0.0007),dominant model(OR:1.35;95%CI:1.20–1.52;P<0.0001),codominant model(OR:1.49;95%CI:1.22–1.81;P<0.0001)(OR:1.26;95%CI:1.16–1.36;P<0.0001).In non-Asian populations,this association was not significant:Allelic model(OR:1.06,95%CI:0.98–1.14;P=0.12),recessive model(OR:1.04;95%CI:0.75–1.42;P=0.83),dominant model(OR:1.06;95%CI:0.98–1.15;P=0.15),codominant model(OR:1.08;95%CI:0.82–1.42;P=0.60.OR:1.15;95%CI:0.95–1.39;P=0.14).CONCLUSION KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 was significantly associated with susceptibility to T2DM in an Asian population.Carriers of the C allele had a higher risk of T2DM.This association was not significant in non-Asian populations.展开更多
Nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K) are essential macronutrients that are crucial not only for maize growth and development, but also for crop yield and quality. The genetic basis of macronutrient dynamics an...Nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K) are essential macronutrients that are crucial not only for maize growth and development, but also for crop yield and quality. The genetic basis of macronutrient dynamics and accumulation during grain filling in maize remains largely unknown. In this study, we evaluated grain N, P, and K concentrations in 206 recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of DH1M and T877 at six time points after pollination. We then calculated conditional phenotypic values at different time intervals to explore the dynamic characteristics of the N, P, and K concentrations. Abundant phenotypic variations were observed in the concentrations and net changes of these nutrients. Unconditional quantitative trait locus(QTL) mapping revealed 41 non-redundant QTLs, including 17, 16, and 14 for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively. Conditional QTL mapping uncovered 39 non-redundant QTLs related to net changes in the N, P, and K concentrations. By combining QTL, gene expression, co-expression analysis, and comparative genomic data, we identified 44, 36, and 44 candidate genes for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively, including GRMZM2G371058 encoding a Doftype zinc finger DNA-binding family protein, which was associated with the N concentration, and GRMZM2G113967encoding a CBL-interacting protein kinase, which was related to the K concentration. The results deepen our understanding of the genetic factors controlling N, P, and K accumulation during maize grain development and provide valuable genes for the genetic improvement of nutrient concentrations in maize.展开更多
Inflammatory markers and mediators that affect the development of cardiovascular diseases have been the focus of recent scientific work.Thus,the purpose of this editorial is to promote a critical debate about the arti...Inflammatory markers and mediators that affect the development of cardiovascular diseases have been the focus of recent scientific work.Thus,the purpose of this editorial is to promote a critical debate about the article titled“Nε-carboxymethyl-lysine and inflammatory cytokines,markers,and mediators of coronary artery disease progression in diabetes”,published in the World Journal of Diabetes in 2024.This work directs us to reflect on the role of advanced glycation end products,which are pro-inflammatory products arising from the metabolism of fatty acids and sugars whose main marker in tissues is Nε-carboxymethyllysine(NML).Recent studies have linked high levels of pro-inflammatory agents with the development of coronary artery disease(CAD),especially tumor necrosis factor alpha,interleukins,and C-reactive protein.These inflammatory agents increase the production of reactive oxygen species(ROS),of which people with diabetes are known to have an increased production.The increase in ROS promotes lipid peroxidation,which causes damage to myocytes,promoting myocardial damage.Furthermore,oxidative stress induces the binding of NML to its receptor RAGE,which in turn activates the nuclear factor-kB,and consequently,inflammatory cytokines.These inflammatory cytokines induce endothelial dysfunction,with increased expression of adhesion molecules,changes in endothelial permeability and changes in the expression of nitric oxide.In this sense,the therapeutic use of monoclonal antibodies(inflammatory reducers such as statins and sodium-glucose transport inhibitors)has demonstrated positive results in the regression of atherogenic plaques and consequently CAD.On the other hand,many studies have demonstrated a relationship between mitochondrial dynamics,diabetes,and cardiovascular diseases.This link occurs since ROS have their origin in the imbalance in glucose metabolism that occurs in the mitochondrial matrix,and this imbalance can have its origin in inadequate diet as well as some pathologies.Photobiomodulation(PBM)has recently been considered a possible therapeutic agent for cardiovascular diseases due to its effects on mitochondrial dynamics and oxidative stress.In this sense,therapies such as PBM that act on pro-inflammatory mediators and mitochondrial modulation could benefit those with cardiovascular diseases.展开更多
The breakage of brittle particulate materials into smaller particles under compressive or impact loads can be modelled as an instantiation of the population balance integro-differential equation.In this paper,the emer...The breakage of brittle particulate materials into smaller particles under compressive or impact loads can be modelled as an instantiation of the population balance integro-differential equation.In this paper,the emerging computational science paradigm of physics-informed neural networks is studied for the first time for solving both linear and nonlinear variants of the governing dynamics.Unlike conventional methods,the proposed neural network provides rapid simulations of arbitrarily high resolution in particle size,predicting values on arbitrarily fine grids without the need for model retraining.The network is assigned a simple multi-head architecture tailored to uphold monotonicity of the modelled cumulative distribution function over particle sizes.The method is theoretically analyzed and validated against analytical results before being applied to real-world data of a batch grinding mill.The agreement between laboratory data and numerical simulation encourages the use of physics-informed neural nets for optimal planning and control of industrial comminution processes.展开更多
Environmental degradation linked to land occupation and use, such as climate change and anthropogenic activities, has led to the modification of the landscape units of the Kadzel sub-watershed. The objective of this s...Environmental degradation linked to land occupation and use, such as climate change and anthropogenic activities, has led to the modification of the landscape units of the Kadzel sub-watershed. The objective of this study is to analyze the dynamics of land use units in the Kadzel area in Diffa between 1992 and 2022 and to propose a future scenario for sustainable environmental management. The approach used relies on remote sensing and geographic information systems to analyze the dynamics of land use units. Additionally, the Markov Cellular Automata (CA) model was used to predict future land use. The land cover maps were produced from a supervised classification by maximum likelihood based on the true and false color compositions of bands 4/3/2 (TM5), 3/2/1 (ETM+) and 7/5/4 (8 OLI). Ten occupation classes were discriminated. Between 1992 and 2022, there was a decrease in the areas of irrigated crops (4.91% and 2.88%), of shrubby tree steppes (14.31% and 9.48%), field-fallow complexes (22.23% and 10.52%), and degraded areas. Grassy steppes (25.76% and 13.32%). However, this reduction has been beneficial for wastelands, urban areas and bodies of water. Based on predictive modeling, it is predicted that by 2052, urban areas, fallow field complexes and bare soils will constitute the main types of housing units. The regressive trend in natural resources appears to continue into the future with current land use practices.展开更多
基金Project supported by the Doctoral Foundation Project of Guizhou University(Grant No.(2019)49)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71961003)the Science and Technology Program of Guizhou Province(Grant No.7223)。
文摘In evolutionary games,most studies on finite populations have focused on a single updating mechanism.However,given the differences in individual cognition,individuals may change their strategies according to different updating mechanisms.For this reason,we consider two different aspiration-driven updating mechanisms in structured populations:satisfied-stay unsatisfied shift(SSUS)and satisfied-cooperate unsatisfied defect(SCUD).To simulate the game player’s learning process,this paper improves the particle swarm optimization algorithm,which will be used to simulate the game player’s strategy selection,i.e.,population particle swarm optimization(PPSO)algorithms.We find that in the prisoner’s dilemma,the conditions that SSUS facilitates the evolution of cooperation do not enable cooperation to emerge.In contrast,SCUD conditions that promote the evolution of cooperation enable cooperation to emerge.In addition,the invasion of SCUD individuals helps promote cooperation among SSUS individuals.Simulated by the PPSO algorithm,the theoretical approximation results are found to be consistent with the trend of change in the simulation results.
基金supported by a graduate fellowship from the Department of Mathematical Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
文摘The presence of the debris in the Earth’s orbit poses a significant risk to human activity in outer space.This debris population continues to grow due to ground launches,the loss of external parts from space ships,and uncontrollable collisions between objects.A computationally feasible continuum model for the growth of the debris population and its spatial distribution is therefore critical.Here we propose a diffusion-collision model for the evolution of the debris density in the low-Earth orbit and its dependence on the ground-launch policy.We parametrize this model and test it against data from publicly available object catalogs to examine timescales for the uncontrolled growth.Finally,we consider sensible launch policies and cleanup strategies and how they reduce the future risk of collisions with active satellites or space ships.
文摘Traumatic brain injury(TBI)is a public health problem with an undue economic burden that impacts nearly every age,ethnic,and gender group across the globe(Capizzi et al.,2020).TBIs are often sustained during a dynamic range of exposures to energetic environmental forces and as such outcomes are typically heterogeneous regarding severity and pathology(Capizzi et al.,2020).
文摘Using Euler’s first-order explicit(EE)method and the peridynamic differential operator(PDDO)to discretize the time and internal crystal-size derivatives,respectively,the Euler’s first-order explicit method–peridynamic differential operator(EE–PDDO)was obtained for solving the one-dimensional population balance equation in crystallization.Four different conditions during crystallization were studied:size-independent growth,sizedependent growth in a batch process,nucleation and size-independent growth,and nucleation and size-dependent growth in a continuous process.The high accuracy of the EE–PDDO method was confirmed by comparing it with the numerical results obtained using the second-order upwind and HR-van methods.The method is characterized by non-oscillation and high accuracy,especially in the discontinuous and sharp crystal size distribution.The stability of the EE–PDDO method,choice of weight function in the PDDO method,and optimal time step are also discussed.
基金supported by the Chinese National Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest (201003025 and 201103022)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFD0201004)the Discipline Construction Project of Liaoning Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China (2019DD082612)。
文摘The soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura(Hemiptera: Aphididae), is one of the greatest threats to soybean production, and both trend analysis and periodic analysis of its population dynamics are important for integrated pest management(IPM). Based on systematically investigating soybean aphid populations in the field from 2018 to 2020, this study adopted the inverse logistic model for the first time, and combined it with the classical logistic model to describe the changes in seasonal population abundance from colonization to extinction in the field. Then, the increasing and decreasing phases of the population fluctuation were divided by calculating the inflection points of the models, which exhibited distinct seasonal trends of the soybean aphid populations in each year. In addition, multifactor logistic models were then established for the first time, in which the abundance of soybean aphids in the field changed with time and relevant environmental conditions. This model enabled the prediction of instantaneous aphid abundance at a given time based on relevant meteorological data. Taken as a whole, the successful approaches implemented in this study could be used to build a theoretical framework for practical IPM strategies for controlling soybean aphids.
基金supported by a grant from the Key S&T Special Project of Henan,China(201300111500)the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFD0200600)+1 种基金the Modern Agricultural System in Industry Technology of Henan Province,China(S2015-02-G05)the Key R&D and Promotion Project in Henan Province,China(212102110471).
文摘Propylea japonica(Coleoptera:Coccinellidae)is a natural enemy insect with a wide range of predation in Chinese mainland and is commonly used in pest management.However,its genetic pattern(i.e.,genetic variation,genetic structure,and historical population dynamics)is still unclear,impeding the development of biological control of insect pests.Population genetic research has the potential to optimize strategies at different stages of the biological control processes.This study used 23 nuclear microsatellite sites and mitochondrial COI genes to investigate the population genetics of Propylea japonica based on 462 specimens collected from 30 sampling sites in China.The microsatellite dataset showed a moderate level of genetic diversity,but the mitochondrial genes showed a high level of genetic diversity.Populations from the Yellow River basin were more genetically diverse than those in the Yangtze River basin.Propylea japonica has not yet formed a significant genealogical structure in China,but there was a population structure signal to some extent,which may be caused by frequent gene flow between populations.The species has experienced population expansion after a bottleneck,potentially thanks to the tri-trophic plant–insect–natural enemy relationship.Knowledge of population genetics is of importance in using predators to control pests.Our study complements existing knowledge of an important natural predator in agroecosystems through estimating its genetic diversity and population differentiation and speculating about historical dynamics.
文摘This paper offers preliminary work on system dynamics and Data mining tools. It tries to understand the dynamics of carrying out large-scale events, such as Hajj. The study looks at a large, recurring problem as a variable to consider, such as how the flow of people changes over time as well as how location interacts with placement. The predicted data is analyzed using Vensim PLE 32 modeling software, GIS Arc Map 10.2.1, and AnyLogic 7.3.1 software regarding the potential placement of temporal service points, taking into consideration the three dynamic constraints and behavioral aspects: a large population, limitation in time, and space. This research proposes appropriate data analyses to ensure the optimal positioning of the service points with limited time and space for large-scale events. The conceptual framework would be the output of this study. Knowledge may be added to the insights based on the technique.
文摘The population dynamics and breeding behaviors of Black-crowned Night Herons ( Nycticorax nycticorax ), Egrets (Egtetta garzetta), Chinese Pond Herons (Ardeola bacchus) and Great Egrets (Casmerodius albus) were observed in Tanghai Wetlands, Hebei Province from August 2004 to July 2005. Further, we studied the relationship of nest space distribution and directly calculated the nest density of vertical and horizontal levels, the niche overlapping index and the niche breadth. The results showed that there were two breeding areas, named Area Ⅰ and Area Ⅱ . The maximum population occurred in the period from April to September and was approximately 5800 individuals. Area Ⅰ was occupied earlier than Area Ⅱ by approximately half a month. In the breeding period, Black-crowned Night Herons were dominant in numbers and most occupied the upper nests of the core areas. Great Egrets also took the upper nests but they have the smallest population. Most Egrets took the middle nests of the edges of the area. Chinese Pond Herons, with a smaller population than the Egret, mostly nested in the edges, but some of them also took the lower nests of the core area. On the whole, the vertical niche of Egrets is the widest, the horizontal niche of Black-crowned Night Herons is the widest and the niche breadth of Chinese Pond Herons is the largest. The nest distribution pattern is the most similar between Chinese Pond Herons and Black-crowned Night Herons, and the niche overlapping index of Chinese Pond Herons and Egrets is the largest. Black-crowned Night Herons and Great Egrets control Egrets and Chinese Pond Herons in competition. Rich food and the optimal ecological environments lead to plenty of herons in the wetlands. In addition, it is a distinguishing feature of the four species that nests are built in poplar trees over 22 m tall.
基金重庆市科委攻关项目(CSTC,2004A C 1003) 重庆市教委科学技术研究资助项目(KJ030204)~~
文摘The effects of interspecific competition on the population dynamics of four insect grain Insecp pests ( Sitophilus zeamais, Rhizopertha dominica, Tribolium castaneum and Cryptolestes ferrugineus ) was studied at 30℃, 75% relative humidity. A regression analysis of the population dynamics was conducted. The results showed that population growth of S. zeamais , R. dominica, T. castaneum and C. ferrugineus was restrained under mixed rearing. Population growth of T. castaneum and C. ferrugineus was remarkably accelerated when they coexisted with S. zeamais or R. dominica, while that of S. zeamais and R. dominica was restrained to some extent. Regression analysis results showed that the population growth potential of S. zeamais was the largest and that of C. ferrugineus was the smallest, and the changing trends of population growth rates were not distinct.
文摘The spatial distribution and population dynamics of Quercus liaotungensis Koidz., Fraxinus rhynchophylla Hance and Acer mono Maxim. were studied in three warm temperate deciduous forests in Dongling Mountain, Beijing. Clumped distributions appeared in most seedlings (≤0.4 m), short saplings (0.4-1 m) and tall saplings (1-2 m). Random distributions appeared in adults of Q. liaotungensis in Plot 1, F. rhynchophylla in Plot 3. The LSD method was used to discern the differences of different aged population. The class distribution of Q. liaotungensis was nearly a reverse-J shape for Plot 1 and Plot 3, suggesting that the population regenerates continuously. The age-structures of F. rhynchophylla and A. mono in Plot 1 and the test results indicated that they would increase continuously. In Plot 2, the class distribution and the test results showed that all populations would not regenerate continuously.
基金funded by the Guangxi Natural Science Foundation Program (2022GXNSFAA035583 and 2020GXNSFAA159108)National Natural Science Foundation of China (32060305)+2 种基金Foundation of Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection (Guangxi Normal University)Ministry of Education, China (ERESEP 2021Z06)Chinese Forest Biodiversity Monitoring Network
文摘Here,we characterize the temporal and spatial dynamics of forest community structure and species diversity in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in China.We found that community structure in this forest changed over a 15-year period.Specifically,renewal and death of common species was large,with the renewal of individuals mainly concentrated within a few populations,especially those of Aidia canthioides and Cryptocarya concinna.The numbers of individual deaths for common species were concentrated in the small and mid-diameter level.The spatial distribution of community species diversity fluctuated in each monitoring period,showing a more dispersed diversity after the 15-year study period,and the coefficient of variation on quadrats increased.In 2010,the death and renewal of the community and the spatial variation of species diversity were different compared to other survey years.Extreme weather may have affected species regeneration and community stability in our subtropical monsoon evergreen broad-leaved forests.Our findings suggest that strengthening the monitoring and management of the forest community will help better understand the long-and short-term causes of dynamic fluctuations of community structure and species diversity,and reveal the factors that drive changes in community structure.
基金This work was supported by the Qinchuangyuan Project of Shaanxi Province,China(QCYRCXM-2022-145)the Major Project of the Key Research Base of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education,China(22JJD790052)+1 种基金the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(Z1010422003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72373117).
文摘With increasing population and changing demographics,food consumption has experienced a significant transition in quantity and quality.However,a dearth of knowledge remains regarding its environmental impacts and how it responds to demographic dynamics,particularly in emerging economies like China.Using the two-stage Quadratic Almost Demand System(QUAIDS)model,this study empirically examines the impact of demographic dynamics on food consumption and its environmental outcomes based on the provincial data from 2000 to 2020 in China.Under various scenarios,according to changes in demographics,we extend our analysis to project the long-term trend of food consumption and its environmental impacts,including greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions,water footprint(WF),and land appropriation(LA).The results reveal that an increase in the proportion of senior people significantly decreases the consumption of grain and livestock meat and increases the consumption of poultry,egg,and aquatic products,particularly for urban residents.Moreover,an increase in the proportion of males in the population leads to higher consumption of poultry and aquatic products.Correspondingly,in the current scenario of an increased aging population and sex ratio,it is anticipated that GHG emissions,WF,and LA are likely to decrease by 1.37,2.52,and 3.56%,respectively.More importantly,in the scenario adhering to the standards of nutritional intake according to the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese Residents in 2022,GHG emissions,WF,and LA in urban areas would increase by 12.78,20.94,and 18.32%,respectively.Our findings suggest that changing demographics should be considered when designing policies to mitigate the diet-environment-health trilemma and achieve sustainable food consumption.
基金PETRONAS Research fund(PRF)under PETRONAS Teknologi Transfer(PTT)Pre-Commercialization—External:YUTP-PRG Cycle 2022(015PBC-020).
文摘Determining the adsorption of shale gas on complex surfaces remains a challenge in molecular simulation studies.Difficulties essentially stem from the need to create a realistic shale structure model in terms of mineral heterogeneityand multiplicity.Moreover,precise characterization of the competitive adsorption of hydrogen andmethane in shale generally requires the experimental determination of the related adsorptive capacity.In thisstudy,the adsorption of adsorbates,methane(CH_(4)),and hydrogen(H_(2))on heterogeneous shale surface modelsof Kaolinite,Orthoclase,Muscovite,Mica,C_(60),and Butane has been simulated in the frame of a moleculardynamic’s numerical technique.The results show that these behaviors are influenced by pressure and potentialenergy.On increasing the pressure from 500 to 2000 psi,the sorption effect for CH_(4)significantly increasesbut shows a decline at a certain stage(if compared to H_(2)).The research findings also indicate that raw shalehas a higher capacity to adsorb CH_(4)compared to hydrogen.However,in shale,this difference is negligible.
基金This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12075304)Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.22ZR1442100)National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB3503904).
文摘X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy(XPCS)has emerged as a powerful tool for probing the nanoscale dynamics of soft condensed matter and strongly correlated materials owing to its high spatial resolution and penetration capabilities.This technique requires high brilliance and beam coherence,which are not directly available at modern synchrotron beamlines in China.To facilitate future XPCS experiments,we modified the optical setup of the newly commissioned BL10U1 USAXS beamline at the Shanghai Synchrotron Radiation Facility(SSRF).Subsequently,we performed XPCS measurements on silica suspensions in glycerol,which were opaque owing to their high concentrations.Images were collected using a high frame rate area detector.A comprehensive analysis was performed,yielding correlation functions and several key dynamic parameters.All the results were consistent with the theory of Brownian motion and demonstrated the feasibility of XPCS at SSRF.Finally,by carefully optimizing the setup and analyzing the algorithms,we achieved a time resolution of 2 ms,which enabled the characterization of millisecond dynamics in opaque systems.
基金supported by the project 2021B0038 of the Internal Grant Agency of Faculty of Environmental Sciences,CZU Prague entitled“Effect of incubation behaviour on predation risk in ducks(Common Pochard Aythya ferina and Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula)in two different habitats”the project SS01010280 of the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic entitled“Fishpond management optimization as a tool to biodiversity conservation under climate change”.
文摘Despite all efforts,long-term changes in the adult sex ratios of breeding duck populations are still unclear;this uncertainty is especially true for male-bias populations,which are often under the scrutiny of researchers lacking convenient results for the active protection of endangered species.Species with male-bias populations are usually strongly affected by a decline in population size that leads to a higher extinction risk.In this study,we examined our long-term data of the abundance of breeding populations in six duck species(Mallard Anas platyrhynchos,Gadwall Mareca strepera,Red-crested Pochard Netta rufina,Common Pochard Aythya ferina,Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula,and Common Goldeneye Bucephala clangula)from fishponds in South Bohemia,Czechia,between 2004 and 2022.This evidence was used to assess long-term changes in the adult sex ratio in these breeding populations and investigate the possible effects of the NAO index(North Atlantic Oscillation index)on them,indicating climate conditions in winter.We determined a long-term decrease of the proportion of females in the breeding season in two of the six examined species:Common Pochard and Red-crested Pochard,which is driven by the long-term increase in the number of males in contrast to the decreasing or stable number of females likely caused by different migration behaviours between females and males.In the case of Common Pochard,in breeding populations,we estimated 60-65%of males in the early 2000s rising to 75-80%in the early 2020s.However,we establish no significant effects linked to climate conditions of the previous winter in these species as a crucial cause of the changes of the proportion of females in the breeding population.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation for the Higher Education Institutions of Anhui Province of China,No.2023AH050561,No.2022AH051143,No.KJ2021A0266,and No.KJ2021A1228School-level offline courses,No.2021xjkc13.
文摘BACKGROUND The association of single nucleotide polymorphism of KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)is currently controversial.It is unknown whether this association can be gene realized across different populations.AIM To determine the association of KCNQ1 rs2237895 with T2DM and provide reliable evidence for genetic susceptibility to T2DM.METHODS We searched PubMed,Embase,Web of Science,Cochrane Library,Medline,Baidu Academic,China National Knowledge Infrastructure,China Biomedical Literature Database,and Wanfang to investigate the association between KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 and the risk of T2DM up to January 12,2022.Review Manager 5.4 was used to analyze the association of the KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 polymorphism with T2DM and to evaluate the publication bias of the selected literature.RESULTS Twelve case–control studies(including 11273 cases and 11654 controls)met our inclusion criteria.In the full population,allelic model[odds ratio(OR):1.19;95%confidence interval(95%CI):1.09–1.29;P<0.0001],recessive model(OR:1.20;95%CI:1.11–1.29;P<0.0001),dominant model(OR:1.27.95%CI:1.14–1.42;P<0.0001),and codominant model(OR:1.36;95%CI:1.15–1.60;P=0.0003)(OR:1.22;95%CI:1.10–1.36;P=0.0002)indicated that the KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 polymorphism was significantly correlated with susceptibility to T2DM.In stratified analysis,this association was confirmed in Asian populations:allelic model(OR:1.25;95%CI:1.13–1.37;P<0.0001),recessive model(OR:1.29;95%CI:1.11–1.49;P=0.0007),dominant model(OR:1.35;95%CI:1.20–1.52;P<0.0001),codominant model(OR:1.49;95%CI:1.22–1.81;P<0.0001)(OR:1.26;95%CI:1.16–1.36;P<0.0001).In non-Asian populations,this association was not significant:Allelic model(OR:1.06,95%CI:0.98–1.14;P=0.12),recessive model(OR:1.04;95%CI:0.75–1.42;P=0.83),dominant model(OR:1.06;95%CI:0.98–1.15;P=0.15),codominant model(OR:1.08;95%CI:0.82–1.42;P=0.60.OR:1.15;95%CI:0.95–1.39;P=0.14).CONCLUSION KCNQ1 gene rs2237895 was significantly associated with susceptibility to T2DM in an Asian population.Carriers of the C allele had a higher risk of T2DM.This association was not significant in non-Asian populations.
基金supported by the Seed Industry Revitalization Project of Jiangsu Province,China(JBGS[2021]009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32061143030 and 31972487)+3 种基金the Jiangsu Province University Basic Science Research Project,China(21KJA210002)the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province,China(BE2022343)the Innovative Research Team of Universities in Jiangsu Province,China,the High-end Talent Project of Yangzhou University,China,the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD),Chinathe Qing Lan Project of Jiangsu Province,China。
文摘Nitrogen(N), phosphorus(P), and potassium(K) are essential macronutrients that are crucial not only for maize growth and development, but also for crop yield and quality. The genetic basis of macronutrient dynamics and accumulation during grain filling in maize remains largely unknown. In this study, we evaluated grain N, P, and K concentrations in 206 recombinant inbred lines generated from a cross of DH1M and T877 at six time points after pollination. We then calculated conditional phenotypic values at different time intervals to explore the dynamic characteristics of the N, P, and K concentrations. Abundant phenotypic variations were observed in the concentrations and net changes of these nutrients. Unconditional quantitative trait locus(QTL) mapping revealed 41 non-redundant QTLs, including 17, 16, and 14 for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively. Conditional QTL mapping uncovered 39 non-redundant QTLs related to net changes in the N, P, and K concentrations. By combining QTL, gene expression, co-expression analysis, and comparative genomic data, we identified 44, 36, and 44 candidate genes for the N, P, and K concentrations, respectively, including GRMZM2G371058 encoding a Doftype zinc finger DNA-binding family protein, which was associated with the N concentration, and GRMZM2G113967encoding a CBL-interacting protein kinase, which was related to the K concentration. The results deepen our understanding of the genetic factors controlling N, P, and K accumulation during maize grain development and provide valuable genes for the genetic improvement of nutrient concentrations in maize.
文摘Inflammatory markers and mediators that affect the development of cardiovascular diseases have been the focus of recent scientific work.Thus,the purpose of this editorial is to promote a critical debate about the article titled“Nε-carboxymethyl-lysine and inflammatory cytokines,markers,and mediators of coronary artery disease progression in diabetes”,published in the World Journal of Diabetes in 2024.This work directs us to reflect on the role of advanced glycation end products,which are pro-inflammatory products arising from the metabolism of fatty acids and sugars whose main marker in tissues is Nε-carboxymethyllysine(NML).Recent studies have linked high levels of pro-inflammatory agents with the development of coronary artery disease(CAD),especially tumor necrosis factor alpha,interleukins,and C-reactive protein.These inflammatory agents increase the production of reactive oxygen species(ROS),of which people with diabetes are known to have an increased production.The increase in ROS promotes lipid peroxidation,which causes damage to myocytes,promoting myocardial damage.Furthermore,oxidative stress induces the binding of NML to its receptor RAGE,which in turn activates the nuclear factor-kB,and consequently,inflammatory cytokines.These inflammatory cytokines induce endothelial dysfunction,with increased expression of adhesion molecules,changes in endothelial permeability and changes in the expression of nitric oxide.In this sense,the therapeutic use of monoclonal antibodies(inflammatory reducers such as statins and sodium-glucose transport inhibitors)has demonstrated positive results in the regression of atherogenic plaques and consequently CAD.On the other hand,many studies have demonstrated a relationship between mitochondrial dynamics,diabetes,and cardiovascular diseases.This link occurs since ROS have their origin in the imbalance in glucose metabolism that occurs in the mitochondrial matrix,and this imbalance can have its origin in inadequate diet as well as some pathologies.Photobiomodulation(PBM)has recently been considered a possible therapeutic agent for cardiovascular diseases due to its effects on mitochondrial dynamics and oxidative stress.In this sense,therapies such as PBM that act on pro-inflammatory mediators and mitochondrial modulation could benefit those with cardiovascular diseases.
基金supported in part by the Ramanujan Fellowship from the Science and Engineering Research Board,Government of India(Grant No.RJF/2022/000115)。
文摘The breakage of brittle particulate materials into smaller particles under compressive or impact loads can be modelled as an instantiation of the population balance integro-differential equation.In this paper,the emerging computational science paradigm of physics-informed neural networks is studied for the first time for solving both linear and nonlinear variants of the governing dynamics.Unlike conventional methods,the proposed neural network provides rapid simulations of arbitrarily high resolution in particle size,predicting values on arbitrarily fine grids without the need for model retraining.The network is assigned a simple multi-head architecture tailored to uphold monotonicity of the modelled cumulative distribution function over particle sizes.The method is theoretically analyzed and validated against analytical results before being applied to real-world data of a batch grinding mill.The agreement between laboratory data and numerical simulation encourages the use of physics-informed neural nets for optimal planning and control of industrial comminution processes.
文摘Environmental degradation linked to land occupation and use, such as climate change and anthropogenic activities, has led to the modification of the landscape units of the Kadzel sub-watershed. The objective of this study is to analyze the dynamics of land use units in the Kadzel area in Diffa between 1992 and 2022 and to propose a future scenario for sustainable environmental management. The approach used relies on remote sensing and geographic information systems to analyze the dynamics of land use units. Additionally, the Markov Cellular Automata (CA) model was used to predict future land use. The land cover maps were produced from a supervised classification by maximum likelihood based on the true and false color compositions of bands 4/3/2 (TM5), 3/2/1 (ETM+) and 7/5/4 (8 OLI). Ten occupation classes were discriminated. Between 1992 and 2022, there was a decrease in the areas of irrigated crops (4.91% and 2.88%), of shrubby tree steppes (14.31% and 9.48%), field-fallow complexes (22.23% and 10.52%), and degraded areas. Grassy steppes (25.76% and 13.32%). However, this reduction has been beneficial for wastelands, urban areas and bodies of water. Based on predictive modeling, it is predicted that by 2052, urban areas, fallow field complexes and bare soils will constitute the main types of housing units. The regressive trend in natural resources appears to continue into the future with current land use practices.