Demographic change was thought to although there were several interacting factors be the most major driver of land use change involved, especially in the developing coun- tries. In this paper, we selected western Jili...Demographic change was thought to although there were several interacting factors be the most major driver of land use change involved, especially in the developing coun- tries. In this paper, we selected western Jilin province in China as the study area to provide a case study for understanding the relationship between spatial-temporal pattern of the land use change and population dynamics from 1975 to 2010. The results showed that the change of farmland area percentage could be modeled well by using a quadratic function, the least area percentage of farmland was 15.4% in areas where the population density was 0 peo- ple/km2, and farmland area percentage had a greatest value of 94.8% when population den- sity was 199.25 people/km2. The area percentage of grassland, water body and wetland de- creased exponentially with population density increased. The relationship between land use degree and population density could be modeled well by using a logistic regression models. Due to economic growth and technological progress and the existence of Hollow Village phenomenon, land use degree still increased in areas where population density was negative growth. In addition, land use dynamics increased exponentially with population density change. Land use relative change of woodland, grassland, built-up land and wetland were proportional to population density change. According to the simulation results of the land use structure and land use degree, Da＇an and Zhenlai had the greatest possibility to be further reclaimed. As sensitive and fragile areas, it was of significance to study environmental pro- tection and ecologic construction on Tongyu and Qian＇an.展开更多
基金Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090310 Development Program of Science and Technology Department of Jilin Province, No.2014020327NY National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41401660, No.41271416.
文摘Demographic change was thought to although there were several interacting factors be the most major driver of land use change involved, especially in the developing coun- tries. In this paper, we selected western Jilin province in China as the study area to provide a case study for understanding the relationship between spatial-temporal pattern of the land use change and population dynamics from 1975 to 2010. The results showed that the change of farmland area percentage could be modeled well by using a quadratic function, the least area percentage of farmland was 15.4% in areas where the population density was 0 peo- ple/km2, and farmland area percentage had a greatest value of 94.8% when population den- sity was 199.25 people/km2. The area percentage of grassland, water body and wetland de- creased exponentially with population density increased. The relationship between land use degree and population density could be modeled well by using a logistic regression models. Due to economic growth and technological progress and the existence of Hollow Village phenomenon, land use degree still increased in areas where population density was negative growth. In addition, land use dynamics increased exponentially with population density change. Land use relative change of woodland, grassland, built-up land and wetland were proportional to population density change. According to the simulation results of the land use structure and land use degree, Da＇an and Zhenlai had the greatest possibility to be further reclaimed. As sensitive and fragile areas, it was of significance to study environmental pro- tection and ecologic construction on Tongyu and Qian＇an.
